Earticle

본연구는환변동보험지원이국내중소중견기업의수출증대에미치는영향을분석하였다.다 중회귀분석및벡터오차수정모형(VECM)분석방법을통해환변동보험의수출지원효과를살펴 보았다.관련변수로는중소기업수출액,중소기업대상환변동보험인수액.환율의변동성,수출가 격지수, 산업생산지수등의변수를이용하였다. 다중회귀분석추정결과,환변동보험인수액의증대,산업생산의증가와수출가격의상승은중 소중견기업의수출을증가시키는것으로나타났다. VECM분석에서의충격반응함수와예측오차 분산분해분석에따르면환변동보험인수액은수출증대에긍정적으로영향을주는것으로나타났 다.환율변동성의확대는수출의감소를가져오고,수출가격의상승및산업생산의증가는수출의 증가를가져오는것으로나타났다.환변동보험지원은환율변동성에의한수출감소의영향을완화 시킴으로서중소중견기업의수출증대에기여함을알수있다.

This research analyzes the effect of foreign exchange risk insurance on export expansion among Small &MediumSized Enterprises(SMEs) in South Korea. Multiple Linear Ordinary Least Squares(OLS) and Vector Error CorrectionModel(VECM) is selected asmethods for analysis. And as related variables, SMEs’ export volume, exchange rate risk insurance purchase for SMEs, exchange rate volatility, export price index, index of industrial product is selected. The OLS results showthat, an increase in foreign exchange risk insurance purchase amount, an increase in industrial production, and an increase in export price contribute to increase in export of SMEs.Meanwhile in the VECM results, according to the impulse response function and variance decomposition of forecast error, foreign exchange risk insurance purchase amount have a positive impact on export of SMEs. However, an increase in exchange rate volatility have a negative impact on export of SMEs while an increase in export price and an increase in industrial production have a positive impact. The results implies that the foreign exchange risk insurance mitigates the exchange rate risk for SMEs and contributes to their export growth.

연구의목적은해적위험과해상보험보상과의관계및공동해손성립에관한관계를포괄적으로 분석하는것이다.이를통해서해적위험을해상보험으로어떻게담보할수있는지에관한대응이 가능할것이다. 해적위험에의한손해는표준적인일반해상보험약관으로는보호받을수없다. 이에따라해적위험에의한선박이나화물의파손또는멸실이발생할때그러한손해를보험사로 부터전손이나분손으로보상받기위해서는전쟁약관으로부보하여야하는상황이다.해적위험을 해상보험으로담보할때문제가되는것은해적위험을어떻게해석하느냐는것이다.특히공해상 에서발생한해상강탈활동을해적위험으로인정하는국제규칙과특정국영해에서발생한해상강 탈활동도해적위험으로정의해야한다는피보험자간인식의차이가있다.현재해적위험은해적이 선박을나포하여억류한후선주와몸값협상을통해합의된몸값지불후억류된선박을풀어주는 형태로진행되고있다.이과정에서몸값과협상기간비용이발생하게된다.이때지불된몸값과 협상기간비용은경우에따라손해방지비용및공동해손비용으로인정받을수있다.또한해적위 험하에있는보험목적물을구조한경우에는구조비로정산받을수있다.최근첨예하게논쟁이 이루어진협상기간비용과관련하여최근영국대법원은협상기간비용을공동해손으로인정하는 판결을하였으나어느국가에서판결하느냐에따라논란은계속될수있을것이다.그이유는협상 기간비용과관련하여실무적으로대다수공동해손정산인은영국대법원과다른의견을가지고있 어서영국대법원의YAR규칙F에대한해석을무시할수도있을것이다.또한협상기간비용을 공동해손으로인정하는관행이정착되더라도그러한협상기간비용의인정범위와관련한논쟁이 지속될수있을것으로보인다. 해적위험이선박에대한단독피해인경우에는해적에게지불된 몸값은손해방지비용으로간주된다.또한구조비의경우에는정산과정에대한논란에도불구하고 공동해손으로 정산된다.

This study aims to identify how maine insurance could cover piracy risks occasioned by worldwide pirate activities. Unfortunately now ITC-hulls or ICC(A) doesn’t cover piracy risks. To cover the risks shipowner or cargo interests should insureWar risks. In current shipping climate, the pirates are usuallywilling to release ship and cargo on payment of a reasonable ransom. When a ransomis paid by one party for the release of a vesselwithcargo seized by pirates, the expense is a subject of general average contribution by other parties. Some expense is naturally occurred during the negotiation period. The ransomare usually falling into general average in the adjustment of marine insurance. but with regard to negotiation period expense, in practice average adjusters had previously deemed such expense as not being amatter requiring a general average contribution even if it was agreed that the final negotiated-down ransom itself was allowable in general average. Recently England Supreme Court addressed that negotiation period expense was allowable in general average. But I think that following the Supreme Court decision, it is strongly arguable that negotiation period expense is allowable to general average in each different law regime.

효율적인수출지원제도활용과수출성과를분석하기위하여수출중소기업에대한현황을살펴 보고지자체,수출지원기관차원에서중소기업의수출성과의지속적인성장을위한실질적인수출 중소기업의수출성과에대한결정요인에초점을두었다. 이를위해수출역량, 지원성과약점, 지원제도문제, 인프라문제, 수출마인드, 경쟁력등과 수출목표달성만족도의관계에관한연구모형과가설을통한검증을토대로수출중소기업의수출 성과의결정요인을분석하여수출지원제도의효율성을높이는데목적을두고있다.

In order to analyze efficient export support systemand export performance, we reviewed the current status of SMEs and focused on the determinants of actual performance of export support systemfor sustainable growth of SMEs' export performance at local governments and export support agencies. To this end, we analyze the determinants of export performance of SMEs based on the researchmodel and hypothesis on the relationshipbetween export capacity, support performanceweakness, support systemproblem, infrastructure problem, exportmind, competitiveness, and export target satisfaction. The aim is to increase the efficiency of the export support system.

2008년제정된중국의노동분쟁조정중재법은기존노동분쟁해결체계의문제점을보완하기 위하여,일정한조건을갖춘노동분쟁에대해서는노동중재를통해최종적인분쟁을해결이가능 하도록하는규정을두었다.그러나이러한종국적노동중재제도에대한중국노동분쟁조정중재법 상의관련규정은규정의구체성부족등으로인하여실제적용에있어적지않은문제를노출하고 있다.본논문에서는중국의노동분쟁해결제도에대해개략적으로살펴보고,이를기초로일정한 조건을갖춘노동분쟁에대해서는노동중재를통해최종적으로분쟁을해결할수있는일명일재종 국제도에대해심도있는연구를진행하였다.그리고일재종국제도를중심으로중국의노동분쟁 해결제도의특징및문제점을도출하여,중국에진출해있는우리나라투자기업들이일재종국제 도를이용하여노동분쟁을해결하고자하는경우에유의하여야할사항들에대해서도살펴보았다.

The Chinese labor dispute mediation arbitration law, enacted in 2008, stipulates that labor disputes under certain conditions should be able to resolve the final disputes through labor arbitration in order to overcome the problems of the existing labor dispute resolution system. However, the relevant regulations of the Chinese labor disputemediation arbitration lawon the final labor arbitration expose considerable problems in actual application due to the lack of specificity of the regulations. Therefore, this paper briefly examines the labor dispute resolution systeminChina, and based on this, discusses the final disputes through labor arbitration, which is called the systemterminated by arbitration for labor disputes under certain conditions. Moreover, this paper verifies the characteristics and problems of labor dispute resolution systemin China under the system terminated by arbitration, and suggests some precautions to Korean investment companies entered in China solving labor disputes using the systemterminated by arbitration.

본논문은한·일·중3국간수출입의동태적상호의존구조를분석하였다.이를위해 2000년 1월부터2019년9월까지의한·일·중3국간 수출입월별통계를 활용하였으며,벡터오차수정모 형과그래프이론이실증분석에활용되었다.분석결과,동시적인과구조에서한국의대중국수출 이한국의대일본수출, 일본의대중국수출, 일본의대한국수출에정보를전달하는중간매개 기능을수행하며중요한중간전달자로서의역할을수행하고있는것으로나타났다.또한예측오차 분산분해및충격반응함수의결과에있어서도한국의대중국수출이중요한설명력과영향력을 가진것으로분석되어중장기적으로도3국간수출입매트릭스에있어중요한변수인것으로나타났다.

In this paper, a vector error correction model (VECM) and directed acyclic graph(DAG)were used to investigate the dynamic structure of interdependency of international trade amongKorea, China and Japan. The data that utilized in the analysis aremonthly fromJanuary 1, 2000 to September, 2019. The export fromKorea toChina is playing a key role in exportmatrix among three countries in both contemporaneous time,mediumand long-run period fromthe results of the analysis of DAG, forecast error variance decomposition and impulse response functions.

본논문은한국서비스무역제한을개선할경우새만금및전북지역에미치는파급효과를추정한 다. OECD의서비스무역제한지수와서비스무역자료를연계하여서비스규제개혁이서비스수출 에미치는영향을서비스무역정책및서비스업종별로추정한다.새만금을글로벌서비스자유무역 중심지로개발하기위해금융등5대서비스업종에서전북지역경제에대한파급효과를지역산업 연관분석을통해추정한다. 2014~2017년사이의패널자료로실증분석한결과,국내서비스무 역규제제한을경쟁장벽을중심으로7.6%p낮춰OECD회원국평균이상으로자유화할경우, 전북의금융,통신,전문과학기술,컴퓨터,운송서비스의수출은2019~23년사이5년간522억원증가하는가운데생산유발,부가가치유발,일자리유발은각각963억원, 406억원, 992개 로추정된다. 최대수출증가액은전북GRDP의39%수준인1조7,900억원으로추정된다.

This paper aims to estimate the spillover effect on Saemangeum and Jeonbuk area when service trade restrictions are liberalized to increase international competitiveness of Korea's service trade. By linking the OECD's Service Trade Restrictiveness Index (STRI)with service trade data, the impact of reforming service regulations for restrictive free trade on service exports is estimated by service trade policies and sectors. In order to develop the Saemangeum as a global free trade-in-services center, financial services, telecommunication services, professional, scientific and technical services, computer services, and transportation services are chosen to be primarily examined. The spillover effect on Jeonbuk economy is analyzed using the regional input-output table. Using panel data from 2014 to 2017, empirical estimation shows that when Korean service trade restrictions are lowered by 7.6%p centered on barriers to competition, and liberalized above the average of OECD countries, exports of financial services, telecommunication services, professional, scientific and technical services, computer services, and transportation services of Jeonbuk increases by total￦52.2 billion over the five years between 2019 and 2023. And￦96.3 billion induced-production, ￦40.6 billion induced-value being added, and 992 job creations are estimated. Furthermore, if services regulations of Korea are to be liberalized fully on Saemangeum, the maximumexports increase is estimated at ￦1.77 trillion, 39%of GRDP of Jeollabuk-do.

WTO회원국들은인간,동물,식물의생명또는건강,국가안보상의이유또는환경의보호와 같은정당한목적을달성하기위해필요한조치라면국내법으로입안할수있고,이러한회원국의 자치권과자유무역증진이라는WTO이념간의적절한균형유지는상당히중요하다.이를위해 TBT협정제2.2조의정당한목적의고려는무역증진이라는이념하에서각국의자치권을원용할 수있는적절한균형을이룰수있을것이다. 하지만WTO회원국이자국민의건강또는환경보호등과같은목적을추구함에있어기술규정 을통한자치권행사는회원국의권리와의무간에충돌을야기할수있다.그동안TBT협정에 대한분쟁해결기구(Dispute Settlement Body,이하DSB)의제한적인인용으로그중요성을 인정받지못하였지만, 최근DSB의유의미한판례들은TBT협정의중요성을상기시키고있다. 이에본논문에서는미국-Tuna II,미국-정향담배그리고US-COOL사건과관련하여TBT 제2.2조의해석즉, 해당조치의정당한목적, 정당한목적의달성을위한해당조치의기여도, 해당조치의무역-제한성그리고해당사안에있어위험의본질과해당조치를통해해당회원국이 추구한목적의비준수로부터야기될결과의중대성을해석함으로써무역증진과회원국의자치권 간의균형적인발전방향을살펴봄으로써TBT협정제2.2조의정당한목적에대한해석기준을 마련하고자하였다.

The preamble of the Agreement on Technical Barriers to Trade (TBT Agreement) shows that ‘no country should be prevented fromtakingmeasures necessary to ensure the quality of its exports, or for the protection of human, animal or plant life or health, of the environment, or for the prevention ...with the provisions of this Agreement;’. Through multilateralism and proliferation of regionalism, the world trade system led to positive effects for the vitalization of free trade with tariff reductions. However, increases of non-tariff barriers such as member countries different labelling, recognition and safety standards for the protection of their own countries industries have caused conflicts between member country’s rights and obligations to use their autonomy for the protection of human, animal or plant life or health, of the environment. Even though the TBT Agreement is meaningful in the world trade system, it has limited theWTOdisputes related to the TBTAgreement. However, there are three cases interpreted by the agreement in 2012 and through many previous studies examined about the three cases so this paper limits the scope to only Article 2.2. To clarify the points, firstly this paper analyses the background of the WTO/TBT agreement. secondly, examines the three cases adopted fromthe WTO/DSU under the TBT agreement Article 2.2 and lastly, the possibility of harmonization between the promotion of trade and member’s autonomy and the requirements.

본연구에서는서비스산업을보다실용적인체계로분류하였고, TSI, RCA, F&H등을이용하 여주요국의서비스산업국제경쟁력을비교분석하였다.또한,고급화지수,서비스무역제한지수 등을이용하여서비스무역결정요인을도출하였다. 2005~2014년까지WIOD데이터를이용 하여한국과교역액이많은주요국의국제경쟁력을분석한결과EU, 미국등주로선진국들의 서비스수출액이높았고, TSI, RCA, F&H모두비교우위에있는것으로나타났다. Kwan의 방법론으로고급화지수를계산하여수출에미친영향을분석하였다.분석결과고급화지수는전체 산업,제조업,서비스산업모두에(+)영향을미쳤으며,서비스유형별분석에서도유통,생산자, 사회,개인서비스모두에(+)영향을미쳤다.이러한연구결과는경기침체의위기에놓여있는 한국이앞으로지속적인경제성장을하기위해서는서비스업의비중을높이는방향으로산업구조 를재편해야하고, 서비스업의고급화를위한방안을강구해야한다는시사점을준다.

This study classified the service industry more practical and conducted comparative analysis for international competitiveness of major service industries using TSI, RCA, F&H, and so on. In addition, the determinants of service trade were derived using the Country Sophistication Index and the Service Trade Restrictiveness Index. As a result of analyzing the international competitiveness of themajor countries which occupy high trade volume with Korea usingWIODdata from2005 to 2014, this study found that export volume of service of the advanced countries such as EU, theUnitedStates, and so forth is larger and TSI, RCA and F&H indicated that it has comparative advantage. This study tried to analyze the effect on export calculating Country Sophistication Index through Kwan'smethodology. According to the results, Country Sophistication Index had a positive effect on the overall industry, manufacturing, and service industries. This study has some implications; First, Korea in a economic crisis should restructure the industrial structure into increasing the proportion of the service industry in order to achieve sustainable economic growth in the future. Second, it is necessary to consider counter-measures for the Sophistication of service industry.