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A Longitudinal Study on the DPRK’s Nuclear Weapons Program
한국평화연구학회 평화학연구 제9권 4호 2008.12 pp.1-27
※ 원문제공기관과의 협약기간이 종료되어 열람이 제한될 수 있습니다.
In the middle of the DPRK’s nuclear crisis, this three-year longitudinal survey research undertaken in the State of Hawaii, USA, traces change and continuity in American public opinion about the DPRK’s nuclear weapons program. Using the comparative method and statistical analyses, this paper investigated how differing ethnic backgrounds, political attitudes, and political partisanships influenced the American public’s evaluation of North Korea’s nuclear program. The research produced several notable findings. Older people, lower educational background, conservative, and Republican Party identification groups tend to see North Korea’s nuclear weapons program as a more serious threat. The majority of respondents replied that North Korea is pursuing a nuclear weapons program, to either enhance its national prestige or in the interests of its national security. Regarding the perennial controversy on United States Forces in Korea’s role in South Korea, almost the majority of respondents tend to believe the presence of the USFK will increase tension between North and South Korea. Respondents who identify with liberals and Democrats tended to support the withdrawal of USFK, while a substantial portion of conservatives and Republican did not. On the question of a desirable settlement of the DPRK’s nuclear crisis, about two-thirds of respondents support a positive approach to resolving the crisis – peaceful resolution, while less than a quarter support a confrontational approach, such as economic sanctions and bombing nuclear facilities.
Beyond the Hostility: An Analysis on the U.S.-North Korean Relations by Game Theory
한국평화연구학회 평화학연구 제9권 4호 2008.12 pp.29-61
※ 원문제공기관과의 협약기간이 종료되어 열람이 제한될 수 있습니다.
For the past sixty years, the U.S.-North Korean relations have gone through many twists and turns just like a chess game which has yet to end. In order to get maximum gains, the two countries sometimes confronted and sometimes engaged each other. From a macro point of view, the evolution of the U.S.-North Korea relations in the post-Cold War era is a big game process comprising several organic game phases and it showed different characteristics at different time periods on different issues. This paper attempts to use game theory to analyze the evolution of the U.S.-DPRK relations in the post-Cold War era, and to further predict the future direction of the relations. Through an analysis on the post-Cold War relations between the United States and North Korea by game theory, we observe that not only can the two countries’ conflicts be avoided; their cooperation can also be realized. We think that though both countries have opposite strategies, they recognize that they share at least some common interests, and thus should avoid destroying each other. So, even though the more difficult game was yet to come, we believe that no matter how intense the game is, the United States and North Korea can still maintain a controllable hostile relation. Although it is not easy to say when the game between the States and the North will end now, it is predictable that they will acknowledge their common interests and eventually agree to cooperate. To ensure a more lasting cooperation to be realized, the multiplayers need to work together on multilevel to achieve such goal.
The purpose of this paper is to suggest corresponding steps and further approaches for dismantlement of North Korea's nuclear weapons program through application of game theory, bargaining theory, and prospect theory. In pursuit of the Joint Statement, February agreement, and US-DPRK accord, some suggestions for North Korean nuclear denuclearization are as follows. First, North Korea has to allow verification measures to avoid a zerosum game, as the US took the step of removing North Korea from the terrorism list. Second, North Korea has to fulfill its nuclear disablement, and the five nations of six-party talks should carry out economic aid to North Korea based on cooperation in economic, energy and humanitarian assistance in a non-zero sum game with the view of obtaining mutual gains. Third, North Korea should abandon all nuclear programs, and the participating nations in the six party-talks except the DPRK have to discuss, at an appropriate time, the subject of the provision of light water reactors to the DPRK for peaceful uses of nuclear energy rather than bombs, to reduce the possibility using of threats and brinkmanship towards each other. Fourth, there is a need to establish a security regime in the North for the purpose of guaranteeing North Korean security, inducing to forgo use of threats and violence, antagonism and confrontation, and instead engage in confidence-building measures.
Russia and North Korea’s Second Nuclear Crisis
한국평화연구학회 평화학연구 제9권 4호 2008.12 pp.89-113
※ 원문제공기관과의 협약기간이 종료되어 열람이 제한될 수 있습니다.
Putin sought to make a dent in resolving North Korea’s nuclear crisis. In the process, Russia sought to cultivate its image as an honest broker, mediator, or facilitator. This article examines Russian policy on the second crisis over North Korea’s nuclear issue. Specifically, the research raises the following questions and tries to answer them: What role has Russia played at the six-party talks? What is Russia’s policy on North Korea’s nuclear weapons program? What are Russia’s contributions to the denuclearization of the Korean peninsula? With the convening of the six-party talks in 2003, Russia acquired the first opportunity to make its imprint on North Korea’s nuclear issue. Russia facilitated dialogue and offered suggestions for compromise. Russia at the same time exerted a moderating influence on both the U.S. and North Korea, constantly urging them to return to the negotiating table whenever the talks stalled and patiently reminding them to take into consideration the other side’s concerns and needs during negotiation. North Korea’s denuclearization and peaceful resolution of North Korea’s nuclear crisis coincide with Russia’s interests. Russia’s influence in the six-party talks has been indirect and marginal. The U.S. and the DPRK were the principal actors in this showdown and the DPRK as a host and mediator played a key role in inducing agreements.
Strategy for Defense Reform of South Korea : Change and Fix Strategy versus Set and Change Strategy
한국평화연구학회 평화학연구 제9권 4호 2008.12 pp.115-141
※ 원문제공기관과의 협약기간이 종료되어 열람이 제한될 수 있습니다.
problems or to adapt to the changing security environment, its past experiences were not satisfactory. The current reform initiative, “Defense Reform 2020,” also seems not to have achieved tangible outcomes yet, though more than four years have passed since its inception. If South Korean military really wants to achieve some results out of this reform initiative, it needs to implement more vigorously the programs outlined in Defense Reform Act. It should increase the pace of change by adopting Change and Fix Strategy in light of a few lessons from U.S. Defense Secretary Rumsfeld’s Transformation and its own failures in the past. While the basic framework for Defense Reform 2020 is to achieve the goals along 15 years in an evolutionary manner, it is not that risky for South Korean military to hasten the implementation of some proven programs.
South Korea’s Security Practice from 1945 to 1998: A Critical Review
한국평화연구학회 평화학연구 제9권 4호 2008.12 pp.143-176
※ 원문제공기관과의 협약기간이 종료되어 열람이 제한될 수 있습니다.
Reform strategy can be categorized into two general types based on the scope and pace of change. The first one, Change and Fix Strategy, involves an urgency to immediately and aggressively implement changes, making adjustments along the way as necessary. This strategy may either bring about the desired outcome or end up in the wrong direction. The other strategy, Set and Change Strategy, involves the crafting of a perfect reform plan that is implemented through a roadmap for almost perfect preparation. While this strategy can be very prudent and tends to minimize errors, it runs the risk of being discontinued during implementation stage. Even though South Korean military has initiated several reform tries to fix the In this article, to reveal the socio-political conditions under which South Korea’s engagement policy (the, so-called, Sunshine Policy) emerged in 1998, we will critically review the historical context of South Korea’s security practice from 1945 to 1998. In so doing, we can possibly address the question of under what internal and external circumstances Seoul has changed its security stance towards Pyongyang from a stiff realist into a reconciliatory posture since the late 1980s. This article will analytically divide the period from 1945 to 1998 into two eras in chronological order. The first period (section) is the era of the Cold War and dictatorial authoritarianism from the mid-1940s to the late 1980s, while the second period (section) is the era of the post-Cold War and democratisation, from the late 1980s to the late 1990s.
The Costs of German Unification : A Reconsideration after 20 Years
한국평화연구학회 평화학연구 제9권 4호 2008.12 pp.177-202
※ 원문제공기관과의 협약기간이 종료되어 열람이 제한될 수 있습니다.
The year 2007 marked in Germany an important event 17 years after unification. As the German Statistical Office revealed in February 2008, for the first time after unification the German public budgets (i.e. the central, regional and local governments plus social security funds) have been in a structural surplus. Though the deplorable state of East Germany’s economy became visible after the opening of the border, still most politicians and also most economic experts hoped that unification was largely self-financing, by the revenues of privatization. The last communist prime minister of East Germany, Hans Modrow, estimated in early 1990 the East German collective property (volkseigenes Vermoegen) at around 1,6 trill. Ostmark. Even with a realistic exchange rate for the East German mark, this would have been a meant a handy treasure to pay the costs of unification. But the collective property proved to be a phantom. The Treuhand organization, responsible for privatization of East Germany’s companies, alone accumulated debts of 205 bn. Deutschmark, and this does not include any of the infrastructure investment necessary or any of the social transfers necessary to stop mass migration from East to West. In the course of 20 years after unification the East German economy was completely restructured, but at a high price: the costs for unification were and are enormous and still the East-West gap remains considerable, not in consumption, but in production. A transfer economy was established permanently dependent on West German resources.
Multicultural Education and Peace Community from a Perspective of Religious Pluralism
한국평화연구학회 평화학연구 제9권 4호 2008.12 pp.203-220
※ 원문제공기관과의 협약기간이 종료되어 열람이 제한될 수 있습니다.
The purpose of this paper is to interpret the necessity of multicultural education from a perspective of religious pluralism and inter-cultural communication in North American context. This paper examines the development of the religious and cultural pluralism in North American context and understands a broader conception of multicultural education with an emphasis of the interplay between culture and education. The application of the inter-cultural hermeneutics of education shall briefly be discussed in a Korean context. The mosaic way of multiculturalism based on the fundamental aims of multicultural education shall also be highlighted; the cultivation of an attitude of respect for and appreciation of the world of cultural diversity and the promotion of a belief in the intrinsic worth of each culture and an abiding interest in the peace of the larger society.
A Comparison between the International Peace Movement of the 1980s and Millenarianism
한국평화연구학회 평화학연구 제9권 4호 2008.12 pp.221-242
※ 원문제공기관과의 협약기간이 종료되어 열람이 제한될 수 있습니다.
The scope of this essay is limited so as not to be engaged in the analysis of the international peace movement phenomenon from any social movement perspective. Rather the essay depicts an element of millenarianism in the international peace movement as some journalists have given to the seemingly facile characterization of the peace movement as a recurrence of the politico-cultural phenomenon of millenarianism. This paper will therefore seek to examine two basic questions. Were elements of the peace movement an example of the politico-cultural phenomenon of millenarianism as arose in earlier historical era? How do the transnational dimensions and consequences of the peace movement compare with those of millenarian movement? The transnational dimension of the peace movement as yet remained largely, in its mass manifestations, informal and spontaneous. Even so, it was an impressive example of a growing political interdependence in the globalized world. Already a transnationally organizing elite was developing to pursue the peace movement's program. While the grass-root peace movement may well “break the inherited mould” and become a “non-nationally defined resistance movement, globalist in potential, and fundamentally transnational in its structure,” this potential, it could be argued, may not be feasible with the political value system of the present world. The transformation in value system that would make a truly peaceful world possible must occur in the spiritual and moral realm where humans have so often before cast their aspirations in the millennialist mold. As we have seen, the millennialist mold entail an appeal to politically and socially marginal groups, an appeal to the terror of catastrophe, to an emotional fantasy of a utopian future. Millennialists have historically had to contend with political power - first the established church, then national governments.
The Struggle of Love for Peace
한국평화연구학회 평화학연구 제9권 4호 2008.12 pp.243-263
※ 원문제공기관과의 협약기간이 종료되어 열람이 제한될 수 있습니다.
The theme of FAUST play is the struggle between love from God and lust which is made by the devil, Satan. Faust fell due to desire but his satisfaction changed to suffering. Finally he came to his senses of true love. The motif that the devil changes to man and leads woman to temptation to covet her body is common in the literature in Korea and Japan. Japanese Kagai is an old play which celebrates fertility and breeding in the farming festival in the year. Man plays god who visits a virgin to marry with her one night. Woman waits for a visiting of god and accept it in the play of festival. They sing songs which are transmitted from the old times. They enjoy it all night and part in the morning. On the other hand, Song of Cho-jong is a song which has been sung in the spiritual event in Korea historically. The devil which has lust for the wife of Cho-jong visits her home when Cho-jong is not at home and he unites with her. At that time Cho-jong returns home. They are caught in the act in front of Cho-jong but Cho-jong leaves there without saying anything. His action is only singing a song and dancing. The Devil is much moved to generosity of Cho-jong and repents his deed immediately in front of him. The purpose of the devil which appeared in FAUST, Kagai, Song of Cho-jong are all same. Their aim was to have sexual relationship with women. And they did it borrowing the body of man. In the western world it is called the devil and in the east it is called god. But we can regard it as Satan because they tempt human to adultery. We can see that Satan makes woman fall to disrupt her love and peace.
Study on North Korea's Economic Growth and Foreign Investment Law for the Peaceful Unification
한국평화연구학회 평화학연구 제9권 4호 2008.12 pp.265-288
※ 원문제공기관과의 협약기간이 종료되어 열람이 제한될 수 있습니다.
Nowadays there are some changes in international status of North Korea since they are removed from a list of state sponsors of terrorism. Many rumors about the health of Kim, Jung Il indicates that these changes might bring an opportunity for North and South to be unified. However, people in South Korea are very worried about the 60-year-gap especially in economy. This economic burden in unification might result in unrest in the society even after the unification. In order to achieve the peaceful unification and preservation of peace after the unification, South Korea must know and understand the current economic situation and the relating problem in North Korea. Therefore, we can minimize the economic burden in case of unification by utilizing its system with some modification. In North Korea, there were many attempts of economic reform influenced by the outer factor such as fall of Soviet Union. However, none of them was in fact successful. Let us examine the Sinuiju Special Administrative region as an example. Although North was desperately copying the economic special zone in Hong Kong establishing separate legislative, executive, and judiciary branch, they were not free from the central government. Therefore, it failed to attract foreign investors. Of course, there was fundamental and profound reason for its failure such as the North Korea's reform was not to intend the pure economic growth for its people but to strengthen the current ruling power such as Kim, Jung Il. In order to achieve the peaceful unification and preservation the peaceful status, we need to further the study on North Korea's economic reform and its problem.
Rebuilding a War-Damaged Country : The Case of Cambodia
한국평화연구학회 평화학연구 제9권 4호 2008.12 pp.289-320
※ 원문제공기관과의 협약기간이 종료되어 열람이 제한될 수 있습니다.
Cambodia is at once faced with both enabling opportunities and encumbering realities as it proceeds with the rebuilding of its post civil-war economy. Its location in the economically vibrant region of Southeast Asia combines with its proud record of historical achievements to hint at a positive promise and a hopeful prospect of success. But its recent history of self-destructive politics and fratricidal conflict has left a traumatized society with gaping institutional deficits – these deficits have at times threatened to make the economic prospects ahead a bit more daunting and less certain than can normally be expected. Which outcome will in the end prevail is contingent primarily on the optimum husbanding of its economic and political resources domestically while, at the same time, effectively mining its trade and investment opportunities externally. This paper is focused on the domestic aspect of the developmental challenges that Cambodia currently faces.
The article focuses on a comparative study of the ongoing worldwide competition in search for talented manpower. This became manifest in the form of policy, institutional and other incentive regimes of countries and corporations. It is termed as 'push and pull factors,' which provides more openness towards analytic possibilities that every actor in migration can become a subject and an object for migration research. Furthermore, the article citing extensively results of the Manpower Inc. indicates volume and field of shortage of talents, how these fields are filled and additionally future perspectives of demand for high-level manpower in the world. Finally some thoughts have been spent on the question of how Korea with foreign workers on unskilled manpower market would cope with shortage of talents in future.
Hayek’s Theory of Spontaneous Order and Twin Ideas of Cultural Evolution
한국평화연구학회 평화학연구 제9권 4호 2008.12 pp.351-369
※ 원문제공기관과의 협약기간이 종료되어 열람이 제한될 수 있습니다.
In this paper, we have given an account of the central arguments of Hayek's theory of spontaneous social order. They can be summarized as follows. Social order is not brought about by human design and concerted agreement; rather, it emerges spontaneously, as the unintended outcome of the actions of many individuals who are separately pursuing their goals. In market order, co-ordination is endogenously achieved by a constant readjustment of individual plans in the light of new information encoded in the price system. In contrast with planned economies, market orders are better able to deal with the epistemic problem faced by society: by relying on decentralized decision-making, market orders bring about a more efficient use of economic resources and thus general prosperity. In addition to their epistemic function, market orders produce a moral end: by allowing men to pursue their individual plans free from interference by others, they bring about a maximum degree of individual liberty. Hayek's theory of spontaneous order provides a scientific explanation of how social order is brought about in the absence of human design. We have argued that, as the expression twin ideas of evolution and the spontaneous formation of an order indicates, Hayek combines two types of explanation: (1) an invisible hand explanation, according to which market order is not brought about by design, or collective agreement, but as the unintended consequence of the actions of many individuals separately pursuing their goals; and (2) a theory of cultural evolution of rules which provide the mechanism for the spontaneous formation of social order. For Hayek, cultural evolution is a process which occurs independently of human reason: rules are not selected because individuals understand their functions; rather, practices which had first been adopted for other reasons, or even purely accidentally, were preserved because they enabled the group in which they had arisen to prevail over others. In this dissertation, we have questioned Hayek's pronouncements on the intellectual roots of his theory of spontaneous order.
Family Structure of a Functional Family : Focusing on Structural Family Therapy
한국평화연구학회 평화학연구 제9권 4호 2008.12 pp.371-394
※ 원문제공기관과의 협약기간이 종료되어 열람이 제한될 수 있습니다.
It is a sense of security and happiness that characterize a healthy family. This paper examines the methods that facilitate healthy family relationships in the perspective of family structure therapy. In a healthy family, the relational structure is established by systematizing the process of interaction, promoting strict yet flexible family rules. A healthy family hierarchy progresses from grandparental subsystem, parental subsystem, child subsystem to a sibling subsystem - while boundary and rules are clear, the interaction remains flexible. Healthy family members have clear boundaries that are neither detached nor adhesive. They do not cross each other's boundaries to excessively adhere to one another nor become segregated to the point of detachment. The key factor is clear boundaries with flexibility. Healthy families demonstrate an appropriate level of cohesiveness in accordance with the family members’ life cycles. Also, they possess a high level of adaptability in times of crises or emergencies. In communication between married couples as well as other family members, they clearly express their feelings while demonstrating a sense of mutual respect. Each member acts under their clearly defined roles within the family while their interactions hold a great level of flexibility and plausibility. The triangular relationships formed among family members continue to progress, and well-formed detriangling facilitates the development of an optimal state where the individuals undergo differentiation and also remain intimate with each other. In summation, family structure can preserve order yet permit intimacy in the familial relationships, ultimately resulting in family peace and stability.
South Korea-China Relations and the Future of North Korea
한국평화연구학회 평화학연구 제9권 4호 2008.12 pp.395-407
※ 원문제공기관과의 협약기간이 종료되어 열람이 제한될 수 있습니다.
Alone among surrounding powers, China has thus far successfully carried out a two-Korea policy. However, recent reports about Kim Jongil's ill health have revived debates over the future of North Korea. How China might react to a sudden collapse of the North Korean government is a major concern in Seoul. Many observers fear Chinese intervention to set up a pro-Beijing regime, or even annexation of the northern part of the Peninsula. For its part, China worries about joint US-South Korean intervention bringing American troops to its border. While economic ties between South Korea and China remain strong, and cultural exchanges are rife, some strains have been appearing. Recent incidents, such as clashes at the Olympic torch relay in Seoul, seizures of Chinese fishing boats in South Korean territorial waters, and concerns over the safety of Chinesemade products have contributed to less benign views of China's rise. Historical disputes over the “ownership” of Goguryeo and Korean claims to the Kando region lurk under the surface. To prevent a possible conflict, and secure Chinese support for South Korea's goal of unification, the two sides should begin addressing the issues that divide them.
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