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한국생산성학회 생산성연구: 국제융합학술지 제34권 제3호 2020.09 pp.3-27
※ 원문제공기관과의 협약기간이 종료되어 열람이 제한될 수 있습니다.
Based on the CDM model, this paper empirically examines the links of R&D, innovation, and labor productivity using Korean Community Innovation Survey (KCIS) for manufacturing firms over the period 2013 to 2015. Estimating the model, I attempt to alleviate two major econometric problems such as endogeneity for the variables and sample selection biases caused by distribution problems of R&D spending and technological innovations. To do this, I control the former bias by employing sequential instrumental variable estimation procedures, and the latter by using both the Generalized Tobit model and the bivariate probit estimation technique. Main empirical findings in the paper can be summarized as follows. First of all, this paper found that the separate estimation of the structural CDM model should lead to biased results due to ignoring sample selection and endogeneity problems. This evidence confirms validity of using botht the bivariate probit model and the type II Tobit model. Second, the results show that R&D expenditure should be positively associated with enhancement of product innovation, rather than process innovation. This implies that government R&D support can have a stronger effect on encouraging product innovation through an increase in R&D investment in SMEs. Third, the innovation protection methods, both legal and strategic, are found to have a positive effect on R&D investment but no effect on R&D intensity. In the innovation output models, on the other hand, only strategic protection method can have a positive effect on both product and process innovations. Fourth, the firm size proxied by the number of workers is found to be negatively related to the R&D investment. As the size of firms grows, the probability of R&D investment is higher, but per worker R&D investment is smaller. This evidence supports Scherer’s hypothesis that innovation activities are more active of small-medium firms in the competitive markets, rather than in the monopoly market suggested by Schumpeter. Fifth, the results show that information flow from suppliers and customers plays an important role as source of knowledge for invention and innovation. In the knowledge production function or the innovation output model, the flow has a positive effect on both the product and process innovation. However, information flow from competitors is found to affect process innovation, but it is not useful to develop new products. Next, the estimated coefficients for government financial support are found to be statistically significant in both the R&D investment decision and the R&D intensity models. This implies that the government financial support can have crowding-in effects on R&D investment, rather than crowding-out effects, and thus it could lead to an enhancement of R&D investment in SMEs. Finally, the results show that the estimated coefficients of the predicted values for product innovation are statistically significant in the labor productivity model, implying that product innovation should have a positive effect on labor productivity and thus eventually affect economic growth positively. This results also confirms existence of endogeneity problem with product innovation, not with process innovation.
생산계획과 생산자의 게임스맨십 : 한국농업의 사례를 중심으로
한국생산성학회 생산성연구: 국제융합학술지 제34권 제3호 2020.09 pp.29-55
※ 원문제공기관과의 협약기간이 종료되어 열람이 제한될 수 있습니다.
The present study adopts the cobweb theory as a basic model to capture the industrial dynamics in the agriculture industry of Korea. We examine the validity of the theory by analyzing the archival data of agricultural products. Specifically, we pay attention to Korean farmers’ gamesmanship behavior as a characteristic of rational supply chain participants and try to test the conventional wisdom that the Korean government’s intervention in the agricultural market has stimulated farmers’ opportunistic behavior for producing an excessive level of produces. According to the panel data analysis results, an increase in the agricultural commodity’s price in the recent past and farmers’ production quantity have a significant positive association. Yet, the government’s subsidy alone does not seem to induce Korean farmers’ opportunistic behavior. In addition, we show the interaction between the change in prices and the government’s purchase quantity. That is, if the market prices are expected to rise in anticipation that the government may purchase their farm surpluses at better prices farmers make a more aggressive decision on the production for the next season. This outcome may contradict the fundamental goal of the government subsidy, which is the stabilization of the market. Therefore, when the government implements a certain policy, it should consider market dynamics in which the policy affects the policy beneficiaries’ behavior.
중소기업 비즈니스 디지털라이제이션의 공급사슬 성과에 대한 실증연구 : 공급사슬 동적역량 영향성 중심으로
한국생산성학회 생산성연구: 국제융합학술지 제34권 제3호 2020.09 pp.57-82
※ 원문제공기관과의 협약기간이 종료되어 열람이 제한될 수 있습니다.
Business digitalization has had pervasive effects on organizations, industry structures and the economy as a whole. Business digitalization is being emphasized as an innovation strategy on the supply chain and the burden on the competitive advantage, which must adapt to business digitalization, is the cause of the company's difficulties in dealing with environmental changes. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to empirically analyze the effect of supply chain dynamic capabilities that enable smooth exchange of resources and information in the front and rear of the supply chain and interaction with partnership firms on business digitalization performance. To this end, data was collected through online surveys targeting companies participating in manufacturing and supply chain that are implementing digitalization. Specifically, we selected electronics, automobiles, pharmaceuticals, machinery, etc., which are digitalization applied to Seoul/Gyeonggi, Daejeon and Gyeonsang regions. In order to minimize common method bias, this survey was conducted by clarifying the concepts such as “supply chain dynamic capability” and “business digitalization” as measured variables through a preliminary survey. In addition, in order to minimize non-response convenience, it was attempted to increase the validity of the analysis results by excluding them from analysis. As a result, we found that supply chain dynamic capabilities had a positive and significant effect on business digitalization performance. Also, although the effect of business digitalization performance on supply chain performance has been shown to have a positive and significant effect, it prove that supply chain performance decreases as external opportunities increase among business digitalization performance. Therefore, by focusing on the dynamic capabilities of the supply chain, companies can increase their understanding of the introduction of new technologies and increase the operational efficiency of the supply chain environment. we identified that the network due to convergence with digital technology can be linked to the occurrence of security incidents for various information such as market demand, inventory, and quality in the supply chain.
비정규직 및 간접고용 활용이 기업성과에 미치는 효과에 관한 연구
한국생산성학회 생산성연구: 국제융합학술지 제34권 제3호 2020.09 pp.83-112
※ 원문제공기관과의 협약기간이 종료되어 열람이 제한될 수 있습니다.
This study empirically analyzes the effects of the use of non-regular workers and indirect workers on the financial performance of companies in South Korea. The study uses data from the Workplace Panel Survey which consists of representative workplaces in South Korea. More specifically, this study extends the time series data to the most recent 2017 WPS wave, and uses function estimation methodology of Olley and Pakes(1996) to control endogeniety which usually occurs in the analysis of business productivity. Through the estimation process, this study is expected to contribute to providing the theoretical and empirical foundations and policy implications for setting the policy basis for the rigidity of the labor market and the level of employment protection. We found that the corporate performance from using non-regular workers differs according to the size of the employees, and the corporate productivity measured by added value per person has a linear negative relationship with the proportion of non-regular workers and indirect employment, but also a non-linear inverse U-shaped relationship in large companies. The result shows its significance in both analysis targeting all industries and analysis limited to manufacturing industries. It implies that the added value per person increases up to a certain proportion but decreases after the critical point when companies utilize non-regular and indirect employment. This leads to inference that the effect of corporate productivity of the use of non-regular workers can be expressed differently according to the distribution of the proportion of the use of non-regular workers. However, the result did not appear to be significant in terms of per capita operating income and sales, and it did not have a significant effect on businesses with less than 300 employees. It is likely to be due to the difference in investment methods for productivity improvement between small and large-scale businesses. Other than the use of non-regular and indirect employment, education and training expenditure per person, research expenditure, overseas market ratio also seem to affect corporate productivity measured by revenue, operating profit, and added value per employee. We found the education/training expenditure per person and the size of the company increased sales and operating profit per person throughout the analysis in general, but it did not have a significant relationship with added value per person. This study focuses on the corporate performance of non-regular and indirect employment, but as shown in the analysis, the financial performance of a company is influenced by various factors in addition to the difference in the proportion of employment types. The sales per person appears to be affected not only by the ratio of the use of non-regular workers, but also total number of employees, union status, training costs per person, and subcontracting transactions. In addition, the proportion of non-regular and indirect employment utilization appears to have different effects depending on the size of the employees, suggesting that the proportion of non-regular workers in companies should not be considered as a single factor for estimating or forecasting corporate performance. In addition, considering that variables such as entrepreneurship and organizational culture that cannot be observed in the survey data can also have a significant impact on corporate performance, it needs to be careful to put excessive weight only on employment decisions in improving corporate financial performance and productivity. In determining the level of employment protection and legislation, the government would be better not to focus on the use of non-regular workers, i.e., at what level to determine the level of quantitative use. Efforts, however, should be made to bring more balanced labor flexibility in terms of employment quality, such as the working conditions and environment of workers. The limitations of this study are as follows. The Workplace Panel Survey used in this study consists of companies with 30 or more employees as a population, and companies with less than 30 employees are excluded from the sample. In future studies, it is necessary to conduct an analysis through data reflecting more small businesses. Therefore, it is possible that the proportion of non-regular workers shown in the analysis data was observed to be lower than in reality, and this may cause bias in estimating the effect of using non-regular and indirect workers on corporate productivity estimated in this study. In addition, the Workplace Panel Survey includes indefinite contract workers in the composition of non-regular workers, and the items of indefinite contract workers are included relatively recent from the 2015 survey, resulting in a time series break in the survey. Considering the high proportion of indefinite contract workers among non-regular workers, it is possible that estimation bias may appear in the period prior to 2015 when indefinite contract workers were not included in the calculation of the proportion of non-regular workers. However, this is a problem that arises from the limitation of survey data, thus it is expected that more meaningful analysis results can be derived if research data that can supplement the limitations are secured in the following studies.
항공사 승무원의 평가수용성이 서비스 성과에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구 : 조직문화 유형의 조절효과
한국생산성학회 생산성연구: 국제융합학술지 제34권 제3호 2020.09 pp.113-141
※ 원문제공기관과의 협약기간이 종료되어 열람이 제한될 수 있습니다.
Given that the purpose of human resource management is to improve the productivity of the organization through the motivation of the members of the organization, the most important human resource management practice is appraisal and compensation. In particular, as creativity, cooperation, and innovation have recently begun to be emphasized in companies, changes in appropriate performance evaluation has become a major issue. In order for such a change in the evaluation system to work effectively, it is most important for members of the organization to think positively and accept it. This means that apart from whether the results of the assessment are reasonable and reliable, the results must meet the actual criteria acceptable to the person who wishes to utilize the results. Until now, studies on evaluation acceptability have mainly been applied with the equity theory and the goal setting theory. 'A' airline, which is the subject of this study, uses a relative evaluation system like most other South Korean companies. Based on relative deprivation theory, therefore, this study focuses on the acceptability of employees for the personnel evaluation system, and aims to explore how the acceptance of appraisal affects their performance. In addition, moderating effects of organizational culture type stemmed from Quinn's competing value model was examined in this relationship. A survey of 200 flight crews of 'A' company, one of the South Korea's leading airlines, found that the higher their acceptance of personnel evaluation results, the stronger their customer service performance. This led to the necessity of managing the acceptability of members' personnel evaluations, at least for service sector entities such as airlines. It was also found that only performance culture among various types of organizational culture significantly have an impact on evaluation acceptability and service performance, especially the weaker the performance culture, the stronger the impact of evaluation acceptability on service performance. It means that too much emphasis on goal setting, achievement rate under the relative evaluation system, or too differential compensation based on the evaluation results can create a sense of relative deprivation, which can have a negative effect of reducing evaluation acceptability and service performance. Finally, theoretical and practical implications of research were presented. In particular, from a practical point of view, South Korean companies competitively introduced Western meritocracy to ease the seniority-based HR system, and the relative evaluation system is also part of the meritocratic HR system. This goal-oriented system has also enhanced emotional engagement and organizational performance through sound competition, but it can also enhance the degree of turnover by strengthening excessive competition among employees. In spite of several limitations, however, this study is meaningful in that it identified the positive relationship between acceptability of appraisal and service performance, and furthermore, it proved the moderating effect of the performance culture, which raised alarm about the problems of the evaluation system due to excessive meritocracy of airlines and even South Korean companies.
경제적 필요와 사회적 지지가 직업탐색행동에 미치는 영향 연구 : 핵심자기평가의 조절효과를 중심으로
한국생산성학회 생산성연구: 국제융합학술지 제34권 제3호 2020.09 pp.143-178
※ 원문제공기관과의 협약기간이 종료되어 열람이 제한될 수 있습니다.
If one of the world’s major concerns is mentioned, it would be a solution to the youth unemplyment crisis. Even in our contry recently, youth unemployment has become a serious social problem and interest in job search behavior is increasing. The purpose of this study is to empirically analyze the effect of financial need and social support on job search behavior and the moderating effect of core self-evaluation between them. For the empirical analysis, we surveyed for senior students at university, the graduates, job applicants, and new employees within a year career. Total 400 questionnaires were distributed, 352 questionnaires were recalled. After the unfaithful responses wre removed, 190 questionnaires were used in analysis. As a result, financial need had a positive effect on job search behavior in unemployed job seekers group. But financial need had a negative effect on job search behavior in employed job seekers group. Financial need had more positive effect on job search behavior in unemployed job seekers group than employed job seekers group. These results can be inffered that, when unemployed job seekers experience the financial need, they try to find job. On the other side, employed job seekers will be less likely to search for jobs depending on various circumstances, even if their financial need increase. Social support had a negative effect on job search behavior in unemployed job seekers group, while in employed job seekers group, social support had a positive effect on job search behavior. Social support had more negative effect on job search behavior in unemployed job seekers group than employed job seekers group. It can be interpreted that the negative effects of social support have been greater than the positive effects of social support in the unemployed job seeker group. Core self-evaluation had any moderating effects. It could be inferred that sub-factor of the core self-evaluation did not directly affect the job search behavior, and futher study of the relationship between the sub-factor of the core self-evaluation is needed in the future. This study has theoretical and practical implications. First, study demonstrated that financial need is significant for job search behavior. Second, this study demonstrated the negative effects of social support in unemployed job seekers. The Practical implications are as follows the financial need in the job seekers group does not necessarily leda to an increase in job search behavior. And, excessive social support in unemployed job seekers suggests that it is harmful for job search behavior. Above all, youth unemployment leads to a decline in national productivity and competitiveness in that it does not properly utilize the contry’s core labor force, especially since the labor force of young people is the next-generation driving force that can determine the nation’s competitiveness in the future, and the research and pratical implications of job serch behavior of young people are meaningful.
동료에 대한 신뢰성이 개인적 양면성에 미치는 영향 : 성수기와 비수기 간 비교분석
한국생산성학회 생산성연구: 국제융합학술지 제34권 제3호 2020.09 pp.179-216
※ 원문제공기관과의 협약기간이 종료되어 열람이 제한될 수 있습니다.
Individual ambidexterity is about individual behavioural capacity to balance and coexist two extreme ambidextrous activities such as exploitation of existing competencies and exploration of new opportunities, meanwhile organizational ambidexterity indicates the ability of an organization to simultaneously pursue the paradoxical strategies of exploitation and exploration. In the context of personal characteristics that inspire positive expectations on the part of other individuals, trustworthiness empirically explaining up to 80% of trust intention is defined as the perceived level of trustworthy characteristics and action of the trustee and is determined mainly by three characteristics of the trustee such as ability, benevolence, and integrity. Assuming individuals exhibit secure attitudes and competent behaviour to balance exploration and exploitation activities in a daily working life, the aim is to answer the following main research questions: First, is individual ambidexterity always consistent regardless of market situation? Second, is there different pattern in the relationship between the perceived trustworthiness of coworkers and the individual ambidexterity at the particular market situation? The statistical analyses were performed 1) to compare the level of individual ambidexterity between two seasons and 2) analyze the influence of individual dimensions of trustworthiness on individual ambidexterity at each season. In the factor analysis and regression analysis using data from employees working at 4 global IT-based electronics companies, the significance of reliability and validity of factors were statistically confirmed with SPSS 21 and AMOS 21 software. As a result, off season entailing the more balanced activities of exploitation and exploration has the higher level of individual ambidexterity, compared to peak season entailing the less balanced activities. It is believed that the ambidextrous structure and self-regulation are the core drivers of the balanced individual ambidexterity in that their organizations have operated the two functional structures of R&D divisions and manufacturing divisions separately and individuals are given, to some extent, the authority of decision-making in the ways of their activities due to the temporal characteristics. Individual ambidexterity is significantly related to only ability dimension in the off season whereas both benevolence and integrity dimension significantly influence individual ambidexterity in the peak season. It indicates that individual ambidexterity can be enhanced by the different dimensions of trustworthiness depending on the market situation. Therefore, this study showed that trustworthiness perceived from coworkers and temporal effect are influential in determining individual ambidexterity. In the academical perspectives, this study is a case pertaining to the availability of individual ambidexterity instrument as a set of ambidextrous behaviours at the individual level, rather than one pair of ambidextrous forms to represent individual ambidexterity. This approach may help explain individual ambidexterity better by taking specific behaviours as a whole rather than measuring exploration and exploitation separately. In the perspectives of (dis)trust management, distrust management is needed to improve individual ambidexterity in the off season characterizing the unstable production schedule with irregular market demand whereas trust management is needed to facilitate individual ambidexterity in the peak season. As a caveat to the interpretation of research results, note that the pattern of differential significance of trustworthiness on individual ambidexterity should not be understood as suggesting that trust leads to the equivalent pattern in usual situations.
예비창업자의 내적 요인과 외적 요인이 창업의도에 미치는 영향 : 창업교육의 조절효과를 중심으로
한국생산성학회 생산성연구: 국제융합학술지 제34권 제3호 2020.09 pp.217-254
※ 원문제공기관과의 협약기간이 종료되어 열람이 제한될 수 있습니다.
The paradigm of jobs is changing from the past due to the emergence of the gig economy, and large companies and others are reducing large-scale public loans or changing the way manpower is supplied to regular employment. As a result, the number of quality jobs desired by young people is decreasing, and the government is proposing 'start-up' as an alternative to creating jobs for young people. In fact, innovative activities of start-up companies are also a source of job creation (Ban⋅Jang, 2014), and the number of young start-ups is steadily increasing, and start-up companies create an average of 1.13 million jobs per year (Start-up Agency, 2013). This is also shown in the case of foreign countries, with the Kauffman(2012) report showing that start-up companies create more than twice as many jobs as existing ones. Although the government expects to revitalize the national economy by fostering start-up companies, and is establishing large-scale budget and support policies accordingly, empirical research on the effectiveness of the government support policy is still insufficient. In particular, a more careful review of the intention to start a business is needed in that clear goals and motivations must precede the start-up, and the intention of a start-up is considered an important factor that must be preceded first for the start-up activities (Hong et al., 2018). In this study, we would like to confirm the adjustment parameters between the intention of start-up, the leading factors on it, and the intention of start-up and the leading factors through empirical analysis of young people interested in starting a business. The leading factors were divided into external and internal factors centering on the start-up, and the mediated adjustment effects of the start-up education and the regulated mediating effects were examined together. Research continues to show that internal factors such as founder's personal characteristics can be adjusted through education (e.g., Kim⋅Byun, 2016; Kim, 2019; Bang et al., 2019; Byun⋅Ha, 2018). At the same time, there has been a steady stream of research to establish the relationship between external factors and start-up education (e.g., Kim⋅Byun, 2018; Ok et al, 2020; Yang⋅ Kim, 2018; Cho⋅Lee, 2016). However, there is still a lack of research that encompasses the adjustment between leading factors and intention to start a business or parameters while examining these two factors at the same time. Identifying a variable that could strengthen young people's motivation to start their own businesses could be used to establish government policies and contribute to enhancing policy effectiveness.
보상 격차에 대한 연구동향 리뷰 : 개념, 효과, 방법론을 중심으로 향후 연구 제언
한국생산성학회 생산성연구: 국제융합학술지 제34권 제3호 2020.09 pp.255-282
※ 원문제공기관과의 협약기간이 종료되어 열람이 제한될 수 있습니다.
Over the past decade, scholars have paid attention to the effect of pay dispersion on individual, team, and organizational outcomes. To fully understand the nature and effect of pay dispersion, we provide a comprehensive and critical review on pay dispersion research. We begin with an overview of theoretical definitions and perspectives of pay dispersion. Pay dispersion is defined as variation of pay level between individuals in an organization. More specifically, pay dispersion can be categorized into vertical and horizontal pay dispersion: vertical pay dispersion is referred to as differences in pay level across jobs or hierarchical level, while horizontal pay dispersion indicates differences in pay level within jobs or organizational levels. We collected pay dispersion studies from domestic journals and international journals in Financial Times Top 50 and review theoretical and empirical evidence. Based on our review, we found that research on pay dispersion mainly used two theoretical perspective: tournament theory and equity theory. Tournament theory suggests that more pay dispersion can enhance effort levels of employees because the wide variation of pay facilitates greater employees' effort and competition. In addition, this theory also argues that pay dispersion can facilitate the employee sorting, in which winners stay and losers leave their organizations. Hence, based on this theoretical perspective, pay dispersion may produce positive impact on organizational outcomes. However, based on equity theory, wide pay dispersion reduces pay equity perception, which negates employees' motivation and commitment, and thus may generate negative organizational outcomes. In the empirical studies we collected, we identified mixed results for the relationship between pay dispersion and organizational outcome variables. For example, it is not clear whether pay dispersion generates positive or negative organizational outcomes. Although some studies have explained the mixed effects based on different types of pay dispersion (vertical or horizontal pay dispersion), the classification also does not clearly uncover the clear effects of pay dispersion on organizational performance. To move forward, we provide future research directions to enrich pay dispersion literature. First, we suggest that pay dispersion research should examine potential mediators and antecedents of pay dispersion. In particular, exploring the mediators can help identifying why pay dispersion positively or negative influences organizational functioning. In addition, the examination for antecedents of pay dispersion is the neglected area of pay dispersion research, and thus future researchers need to investigate the potential antecedents in team or organizational context. Second, research on pay dispersion needs to verify the effect of pay dispersion across different countries or cultural values or in different job categories and at the team level, which may be helpful for identifying why the mixed results occur. Finally, we suggest to use more rigorous measures of pay dispersion to verify the clear effect of pay dispersion in Korean context.
한국생산성학회 생산성연구: 국제융합학술지 제34권 제3호 2020.09 pp.283-308
※ 원문제공기관과의 협약기간이 종료되어 열람이 제한될 수 있습니다.
In this paper, we examined various impact factors composed of macroeconomic and asset market-related variables to influence pension asset demands centered on private retirement pensions in the 22 OECD member countries for the recent 19 years. Major estimation results from panel data regressions are as follows. First, an increase in elderly population shows to increase demand for pension assets but to affect negatively growth of pension assets leaving the chance of future rapid decumulation of pension assets especially in the fast aging countries like Korea. Second, household debt to GDP also shows a positive effect on the demand for pension assets at the beginning but a negative effect on the growth of pension assets afterwards. This finding reveals that household debt mainly depends on price sensitivity of financial assets rather than on household income also leaving room for the direction of future possible disaster. Third, per capita GDP and real economic gowth rate are found to to be positve effects on the growth of pension assets confirming the fact that only continuous economic growth can affect favorably pension asset management. Fourth, domestic and global equity returns turn out to be the positive impact fators on the growth of pension asset demand reassuring the fact that equity asset investment is the right tool for the long-term asset management and also promoting necessity for employing high skilled fund managers and high technology oriented equipment such as artificial intelligence in the pension asset management sectors. Fifth, long term government bond yield is proven to be the negative factor to the pension asset demand but also taking a role to decrease the growth rate of pension asset afterwards. These two contradicting results reflect ambilateral effects of interest rates; one is a negative effect on asset prices by increaing discounts and the other is a positive effect of increasing interest income to the pension assets. Lastly, the supply factor in the asset market variable chosen as stock market capitalization to GDP is regretfully to be seen to have any statistically significant effects on the pension asset demand and its growth. With all these findings of pension asset markets we recommend such policy suggestions as espansion of elderly job market, rebuilding of longevity oriented industry structure, and enhancing support programs on the newly innovative growth fields suitable for the so-called 4th industustrial revolution era.
한국생산성학회 생산성연구: 국제융합학술지 제34권 제3호 2020.09 pp.309-326
※ 원문제공기관과의 협약기간이 종료되어 열람이 제한될 수 있습니다.
As the economy grows, interest in financial investment is increasing. One of the most representative ways of investing in finance is stocks. When investing stocks, the stock price index, which indicates the situation in the market, has a lot of influence on investors' decisions toward effective investment. Until now, traditional time series analysis methods and machine learning methods have been used to perform analyses that predict stock price index data. In this study, a model for analyzing and predicting stock price index data using functional linear methods was presented. By using comparison with functional linear model to present and predict the DTW clustering method implemented using the same data, the efficiency of functional linear model was explained. In the full-scale analysis, the stock price index data were expressed by converting it into functional data through smoothing using linear combinations of base functions, and the functional linear model was implemented and predicted. For comparison, the model was implemented and predicted through DTW clustering. Use DTW methods to classify patterns in data and to identify and predict patterns most similar to those in the forecast period. As a result, you want to compare the accuracy of the two models with MAPE, RMSE, and see the possibility of a functional linear model.
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