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Stock Market Forecasting : Comparison between Artificial Neural Networks and Arch Models
한국정보기술응용학회 JITAM Vol.19 No.1 2012.03 pp.1-12
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4,300원
Data mining is the process of searching and analyzing large quantities of data for finding out meaningful patterns and rules. Artificial Neural Network (ANN) is one of the tools of data mining which is becoming very popular in forecasting the future values. Some of the areas where it is used are banking, medicine, retailing and fraud detection. In finance, artificial neural network is used in various disciplines including stock market forecasting. In the stock market time series, due to high volatility, it is very important to choose a model which reads volatility and forecasts the future values considering volatility as one of the major attributes for forecasting. In this paper, an attempt is made to develop two models - one using feed forward back propagation Artificial Neural Network and the other using Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (ARCH) technique for forecasting stock market returns. Various parameters which are considered for the design of optimal ANN model development are input and output data normalization, transfer function and neuron/s at input, hidden and output layers, number of hidden layers, values with respect to momentum, learning rate and error tolerance. Simulations have been done using prices of daily close of Sensex. Stock market returns are chosen as input data and output is the forecasted return. Simulations of the Model have been done using MATLAB® 6.1.0.450 and EViews 4.1. Convergence and performance of models have been evaluated on the basis of the simulation results. Performance evaluation is done on the basis of the errors calculated between the actual and predicted values.
Financial Data Assessment Using Table-Graph-Mixed Reality Visualization
한국정보기술응용학회 JITAM Vol.19 No.1 2012.03 pp.13-24
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4,300원
Usability and knowledge drawn from utilizing various ways of representing accounting data were examined. Classroom experiments were conducted to compare students’ assessment of financial data using table of numbers, 2-dimensional column graphs (2D), 3-dimensional column graphs (3D), and mixed reality visualization of true 3-dimensional graphs (MR). The results showed that in assessing the financial status and performance of a firm, Table of numbers and MR took longer than 2D and 3D graphs. The time spent on true 3D graphs using MR technology was about the same as Table of numbers. When compared the assessment scores of the firm’s financial status and performance between participants and experts, the difference was the least when participants used 2D graphs. However, MR was seen as being a new way to provide data of greater complexity and was very useful for financial information.
An Exploratory Study on the Framework to Classify Social Commerce Models
한국정보기술응용학회 JITAM Vol.19 No.1 2012.03 pp.25-36
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4,300원
Social Commerce recently attracted the attention of academic and industry researchers. Social Commerce aims to make a transactional environment which is beneficial to three parties-social commerce service provider, buyer and seller by way of using the platform of SNS. As Social Commerce is a new technology issue, there is no existing conceptual framework, e.g. appropriate classification the business types, that help to understand the nature of Social Commerce. This study suggests one classification framework and tries to verify whether it works.
Design of a Coordinating Mechanism for Multi-Level Scheduling Systems in Supply Chain
한국정보기술응용학회 JITAM Vol.19 No.1 2012.03 pp.37-46
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4,000원
The scheduling problem of large products like ships, airplanes, space shuttles, assembled constructions, and automobiles is very complex in nature. To reduce inherent computational complexity, we often design scheduling systems that the original problem is decomposed into small sub-problems, which are scheduled independently and integrated into the original one. Moreover, the steep growth of communication technology and logistics makes it possible to produce a lot of multi-nation corporation by which products are produced across more than one plant. Therefore vertical and lateral coordination among decomposed scheduling systems is necessary. In this research, we suggest an agent-based coordinating mechanism for multi-level scheduling systems in supply chain. For design of a general coordination mechanism, at first, we propose a grammar to define individual scheduling agents which are responsible to their own plants, and a meta-level coordination agent which is engaged to supervise individual scheduling agents. Second, we suggest scheduling agent communication protocols for each scheduling agent topology which is classified according to the system architecture, existence of coordinator, and direction of coordination. We also suggest a scheduling agent communication language which consists of three layers : Agent Communication Layer, Scheduling Coordination Layer, Industry-specific Layer. Finally, in order to improve the efficiency of communication among scheduling agents we suggest a rough capacity coordination model which supports to monitor participating agents and analyze the status of them. With this coordination mechanism, we can easily model coordination processes of multiple scheduling systems. In the future, we will apply this mechanism to shipbuilding domain and develop a prototype system which consists of a dock-scheduling agent, four assembly-plant-scheduling agents, and a meta-level coordination agent. A series of experiment using the real-world data will be performed to examine this mechanism.
한국정보기술응용학회 JITAM Vol.19 No.1 2012.03 pp.47-59
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4,500원
A number of organizations have had big interests in studies concerning leadership and in academic areas, in not only management but also psychology. Until now, leadership has been accentuated by managers or team leaders especially. Recently, however, the concept of self-leadership directing one's own activities through self-control or self-management is being focused on in practices and in academia. This study is to investigate the influence between self-leadership strategies and learning performance in IT classes mediated by attitude of attendance focused on the social science students in two universities (Korea (121 samples) and India (106 samples)). And this research tried to compare difference between two university students. Research results can give us direction of task-taking attitudes in firms or learning attitudes in teaching organizations and implications to human resource managers who are in charge of improving learning performance or productivity.
PMO 수행체계 적절성의 효과와 영향 요인에 관한 실증연구
한국정보기술응용학회 JITAM Vol.19 No.1 2012.03 pp.61-83
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6,000원
PMO has gained much interest as an approach to lowering project failure rates. PMO implementation is, however, not an easy endeavor. Many studies have reported that a significant number of PMOs were seen as contributing little to project performance. Local organizations are more likely to be exposed to the failure risk as they tend to heavily depend upon outsourced PMO services. We believe that it is essential for ordering organizations to collaborate with the PMO service firm to come up with a proper PMO governance prior to its implementation. This study is to empirically investigate the effects of PMO governance upon PMO performance and the effects of ordering organization's project readiness upon PMO governance. The study result shows that a proper organizational structure and a properly defined role and responsibility may enhance the PMO performance. And, a correct awareness about PMO and a project management capability were found to be contributing to the appropriateness of PMO governance.
사이버 공간의 확산과 물리적 공간에서의 집중화 현상의 관련성 : 성형외과의 강남구 집중현상 고찰
한국정보기술응용학회 JITAM Vol.19 No.1 2012.03 pp.85-100
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4,900원
The development of technology causes a lot of change. Many researchers have insisted that the proliferation of cyber space changes the physical space. Their insistences have been accumulated into three aspects. Firstly, the proliferation of cyber space brings out the concentration in the physical space, secondly the decentralization and lastly both at the same time. In Korea, the concentration of plastic surgery clinics has taken place in Kangnam-gu area at similar period of the Internet proliferation. In this research, we execute empirical study of whether the concentration of plastic surgery in specific areas correlates with the proliferation of cyber space or not. In order to do this, we verified homogeneity of plastic surgery websites between Kangnam-gu and Non-Kangnam-gu areas. Also, we used three statistical and data- mining techniques which are Multi-discriminant analysis, Decision tree analysis and artificial neural network analysis. As a result, there was homogeneity between two different area plastic surgery clinics websites, but there was not big heterogeneity as well. Therefore, in this case of concentration of plastic surgery in Korea, the proliferation of cyber space restrictively correlates with the concentration of physical space.
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