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The U.S. Employment and Inflation in 50 Years : A Copula Approach
한국무역통상학회 무역통상학회지 제24권 제2호 2024.04 pp.1-18
※ 원문제공기관과의 협약기간이 종료되어 열람이 제한될 수 있습니다.
This study explores the evolving probability distribution of the two closely monitored macroeconomic phenomena, i.e., employment growth rate and inflation rate in the U.S. economy from 1971 to 2023 by constructing copula. Employment growth rate rather than unemployment rate was chosen to overcome the gray area of disappointed unemployment. We find it hard to perceive the economy where we live in the objective way, and we often try to figure it out or to forecast like narrow-sighted little men touching a colossal elephant. Copulas for the U.S. employment growth rate and inflation rate for each decade and each crisis help us to visualize the macroeconomic shapes although copula does not show a one-to-one correspondence with theoretical relationships. Copula shows a history and allows us to compare different eras in a succinct way by maximum likelihood based on realized data. In the end, final data points contain countless stories and circumstances, and we need to see them at one glance to capture essential features, sometimes. This simplification allows us to see concordant(discordant) relationship and tail dependence revealing the intensity of a tendency. During the tapering period before the Covid-19 pandemic crisis(Nov. 2014 ~ Feb. 2020) in the U.S. economy, we find high likelihood of high employment growth rate and low inflation rate. It gives us a promising sign that dismal macroeconomic states are not necessarily inevitable.
제품 현지화와 수출 성과 : 국제경험과 시장 경쟁 강도의 조절 효과를 중심으로
한국무역통상학회 무역통상학회지 제24권 제2호 2024.04 pp.19-31
※ 원문제공기관과의 협약기간이 종료되어 열람이 제한될 수 있습니다.
This study explores the relationship between product adaptation and export performance. It also examines how firm characteristics and environmental characteristics shape the performance influence of product adaptation on export performance. Based on a resource-based view and contingency perspective, this study develops a conceptual model and empirically investigates the moderating effect of international experience and competitive intensity on the link between product adaptation and export performance. Using the survey data collected from 147 Korean exporters, this study tested the relationship between product adaptation, international experience, competitive intensity, and export performance. The findings suggest that the level of product adaptation positively affects export performance. Moreover, the results indicate that both international experience and competitive intensity strengthen the positive impact of product adaptation on export performance.
수출업자의 인문학적 소양이 문화적 공감을 통해 관계성과에 미치는 영향
한국무역통상학회 무역통상학회지 제24권 제2호 2024.04 pp.33-52
※ 원문제공기관과의 협약기간이 종료되어 열람이 제한될 수 있습니다.
This study examined the impact of exporters’ humanistic knowledge on relationship performance with importers by improving cultural empathy. Accordingly, this study viewed exporters’ humanistic knowledge as a multidimensional variable including literature, philosophy, history, art, religion, and cultural literacy. Cultural empathy was viewed as a variable with sub-elements such as empathic feeling and expression, empathic perspective taking, acceptance of cultural differences, and empathic awareness. To measure this, a survey was conducted targeting 207 export managers from small and medium-sized businesses. As a result of the analysis, the exporter’s humanistic knowledge had a positive effect on all of the sub-elements. In addition, all sub-elements of the exporter’s cultural empathy were found to have a positive effect on relationship performance. The results of this study can provide practical suggestions that small and medium-sized enterprises should seek ways to develop the capabilities of export managers necessary to build friendly relationships with importers with different cultural backgrounds.
Impact of COVID-19 on Dividend Payout Policies : Evidence from Korea
한국무역통상학회 무역통상학회지 제24권 제2호 2024.04 pp.53-71
※ 원문제공기관과의 협약기간이 종료되어 열람이 제한될 수 있습니다.
This study investigates the effects of the COVID-19 shock on firms’ dividend payout policies. An analysis of Korean data reveals that the COVID-19 shock caused firms to lower their dividend payouts. We use propensity score matching to establish that the results are not driven by endogeneity. Finally, we observe the impact of external monitoring and show that the effects of the COVID-19 shock manifest only in firms audited by the Big-4 audit firms in Korea and in those owned largely by foreign investors, indicating that such institutions restrain firms from distributing dividends.
Supply chain risk management is a field studied by various scholars. Previous research lacks discussion of the types of risk. Most of them focus on how to manage supply chain risks. After the COVID-19 pandemic, new types of risk are emerging, which are US-China hegemonic rivalry and ESG norms. There is a need to study the impact of these risks on the global supply chain disruption. Research on the relationship between ESG norms and supply chain risk management is a very promising research topic. However, there is a lack of discussion about which laws and regulations are related to ESG norms and the differences between countries. This study aims to identify various risk factors affecting global supply chain disruption and to evaluate their impact. Its focus is especially on evaluating the impact of ESG-related laws and guidelines, which have recently become a global new normal, on the global supply chain. To this end, first, various types of risks affecting the global supply chain were identified. Second, the ESG-related laws and guidelines enacted by international organizations (UN, OECD, etc.), the United States, and Europe were discussed. Third, the impact of ESG-related laws and regulations on global supply chain disruption was evaluated.
소비자의 행동이 기업의 CSR활동에 미치는 영향 : 수요 측면에서 본 기업의 환경 R&D 투자
한국무역통상학회 무역통상학회지 제24권 제2호 2024.04 pp.93-108
※ 원문제공기관과의 협약기간이 종료되어 열람이 제한될 수 있습니다.
A lot of literature has discussed governmental regulations such as emission regulations or emission taxes as a way to deal with environmental problems caused by production activities of firms. These regulations provide firms with incentives to reduce pollutant emissions. Providing such incentives may be possible not only through governmental regulations but also through consumers’ consumption behavior. In this paper, we analyzed the competition for environmental R&D investment in a duopoly market where there is a gap in productivity between firms and a reduction effect in demand due to the competitor’s investment. We consider three cases. Case 1 is that both firms decide the scales of investment simultaneously, case 2 is that the firm with relatively high productivity decides first, and case 3 is that the firm with relatively low productivity decides first. The main results are as follows: First, as the gap in productivity grows, the gap in investment scale also increases. Second, when the investment scale is decided simultaneously or when the firm with high productivity takes the leader, the gap in investment scale between both firms widens as the reduction effect of demand increases. Third, when the firm with low productivity takes the leader, the investment scale of the leader is larger than the follower if the reduction effect of demand is large even though the gap in productivity is large. However, if the productivity gap is sufficiently small, the investment scale of the leader is larger than the follower regardless of the reduction effect of demand. Finally, when the firm with high productivity is the leader, the least environmental damage and the greatest social welfare is realized compare to the other cases.
Impact of the US-China tariff war on Korean exports in the US and Chinese markets
한국무역통상학회 무역통상학회지 제24권 제2호 2024.04 pp.109-133
※ 원문제공기관과의 협약기간이 종료되어 열람이 제한될 수 있습니다.
This study investigates how the tariffs imposed by the US and China on each other due to the US-China trade dispute affected Korea’s export products. Using a CMS model based on UN Comtrade data this study identifies changes in competitiveness and growth rates of Korea’s export products in the US and Chinese markets. In particular, this study was conducted by distinguishing products in more detail using 6 digits of HSCODE instead of 4. According to this study, the US tariffs on Chinese products had an overall positive effect on Korean products. On the other hand, in the Chinese market, the overall impact of the Chinese government’s tariffs on the US products on Korean exports was not evident. In addition, by analyzing HSCODE with 6 digits, different characteristics between products that could not be found with 4 digit analysis were discovered. As a result, it is expected that this study is helpful in providing more specific guidance on exports in the future.
Rapid technological advancements, especially in artificial intelligence and the Internet, have dramatically increased the demand for smart home systems, which promise enhanced convenience and efficiency. In this fast-growing market, Xiaomi Group has emerged as a prominent player. This paper utilizes a SWOT analysis to delve into Xiaomi’s smart home division’s competitive environment, pinpointing its strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats. Through comprehensive analysis, an optimal marketing strategy is developed using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). The study proposes recommendations to bolster product intelligence and foster innovation, addressing the challenges unearthed. Additionally, it investigates Xiaomi’s worldwide marketing strategies for its smart home offerings, employing a hybrid AHP model that merges qualitative and quantitative insights. The result is a refined strategic marketing plan aimed at elevating Xiaomi’s smart home products’ global marketing effectiveness. This research not only provides valuable insights for strategic planning in the smart home sector but also offers practical guidelines to improve Xiaomi’s global competitive stance.
규제정책이 기업성과에 미치는 동태적 영향 분석 : 건설업을 중심으로
한국무역통상학회 무역통상학회지 제24권 제2호 2024.04 pp.151-169
※ 원문제공기관과의 협약기간이 종료되어 열람이 제한될 수 있습니다.
This paper analyzes how corporate financial performance is affected by changes in government policy and regulation, focusing on the construction industry. We analyze the performance of construction firms listed on the KOSPI and KOSDAQ markets from 2001 to 2022 from both financial and non-financial perspectives. In particular, construction firms listed on the KOSPI and KOSDAQ, which are closely related to the domestic real estate market, can experience significant changes in profitability depending on government policies and regulations. We use kernel density estimation to convert discrete financial indicators into continuous probability distributions to examine changes over time. To understand this more precisely, we conduct a dynamic panel analysis to examine the impact of government policy and regulatory variables on the profitability of construction firms. The empirical results show that government regulations affect the profitability of construction firms. The result of robustness analysis shows that the impacts of government policies and regulations on between KOSPI firms and KODAQ are somewhat different.
This study investigates cases related to the assessment and treatment of transportation costs under customs law. Given the ongoing disputes surrounding the evaluation of transportation costs in recent times, the study examines the meaning and scope of regulations concerning transportation costs under customs law, along with the interpretation cases of transportation cost assessment systems in countries such as Japan, the EU (European Union), and the United States, in light of the WTO Customs Valuation Agreement. The analysis also identifies shortcomings in the current system and proposes potential improvements. The conclusions of this paper are as follows: Firstly, to reduce disputes arising from ambiguous provisions in current customs law, it suggests implementing regulations that clarify the concepts of ‘essential related expenses’ or ‘clearly distinct cases,’ and compiling various cases to provide specific guidelines, possibly by posting them on Unipass (Customs Service Portal). Secondly, to address the issue of full taxation, it proposes the establishment of new regulations requiring the estimation of domestic expenses according to the method of estimated taxation even in cases where domestic fares are not clearly differentiated, thus ensuring fair taxation.
Several provincial governments are trying to construct additional airports, which their local area already has an airport. These local areas experts demonstrate that the newly built airport will resolve the industrial imbalance between provincial and metropolitan areas. And they believe that the newly built airport will have a synergistic effect with nearby seaports. Is there any synergy between seaports and airports? Can an airport serve as a new growth engine in provincial areas? The purpose of the study is to answer the above research questions. As results, it is not always the case that seaports and a proximate airport have a synergistic effect as in the Hong Kong case. In addition, an airport cannot reorganize its hinterland. The cases of TSMC and Samsung show evidence supporting this argument. Air cargo production locations are mainly determined according to the available human resources and not according to their distances from an airport.
Investigation on Successful Experience Good Franchises : A Case Study of Video Game Sequels
한국무역통상학회 무역통상학회지 제24권 제2호 2024.04 pp.213-232
※ 원문제공기관과의 협약기간이 종료되어 열람이 제한될 수 있습니다.
The video game industry has experienced continuous growth over the past decade. As the industry continues to grow, understanding various facets of the industry also gains significance. This research utilizes a Bayesian hierarchical model to examine the effect of various extrinsic and intrinsic quality cues that have been previously identified in the literature alongside the concept of brand extensions. This study uses web scrapping to gather video game sales data and video game characteristic information from a variety of sources and identifies that critic rating and reviews are extremely valuable in promoting sales as well as the fundamental characteristics of the video game product. Additionally, the results of this study, show that there is a lasting impact of the original parent game sales on future sequel sales and finds that there is a clear trend of decreased sales from the parent game up until the second sequel, but the second sequel of a video game franchise plays a critical role in the continuation of the franchise.
미국의 대선 후보자별 통상정책과 對미수출전략에 관한 연구 : 상무부 예산안의 텍스트 마이닝을 중심으로
한국무역통상학회 무역통상학회지 제24권 제2호 2024.04 pp.233-252
※ 원문제공기관과의 협약기간이 종료되어 열람이 제한될 수 있습니다.
The outcome of this year’s U.S. presidential election could lead to changes in the business environment of Korean export companies from a mid- to long-term perspective starting in 2025. In particular, Korea’s economic structure is highly dependent on foreign trade. So it is necessary to take a preemptive approach for Korean companies to establishing export strategies to the United States before the November presidential election. This study aims to present a new perspective on the impact of changes in U.S. trade policy on Korean companies by conducting text mining of unstructured data found in the department of commerce budget. The analyzed budgets are FY2021, which served as the preparatory budget for Trump’s second term in office and FY2024, reflecting Biden’s second term. The findings reveal that both Trump and Biden share similar trade policy orientations to strengthen their deterrence against China and protect domestic industries. However there were differences between the two candidates on climate change response. And Biden was more proactive stance than Trump on supply chain-related matters. Based on this, this study seek to provide a strategic guidance for Korea companies to preemptively address opportunities and threats related to exports to the U.S. taking into account the divergent approaches of each candidate.
This paper examines the Korea-Vietnam bilateral trade from the perspective of trade in value-added to find the followings. First, the electronics industry is at the center of the bilateral trade. Second, the proportion of intra-industry trade is significant. Finally, the value-added created through bilateral trade has been unequally shared between the two countries. The findings imply that Vietnam has participated in the regional production chains organized by Korea and performs low value-added tasks. Whereas Korea performs high value-added task and captures the lion’s share of value-added.
Apple’s Value-based Services for Sustainable Business : ESG and Sustainability Strategies
한국무역통상학회 무역통상학회지 제24권 제2호 2024.04 pp.265-281
※ 원문제공기관과의 협약기간이 종료되어 열람이 제한될 수 있습니다.
A global leader in innovation, Apple’s successful case study provides valuable insights for other IT companies seeking to emulate its innovative approach. Apple actively engages in ESG activities and implements a robust sustainability strategy, making it a leading example of value-based services for sustainable business practices. The main purpose of conducting ESG and Porter’s Five Forces analyses in this paper is to evaluate Apple’s commitment to sustainable business practices and assess its competitive landscape in the context of sustainability. This paper analyzes Apple’s approach to value-based services for sustainable business, focusing on its ESG activities and sustainability strategy. Section 1 examines Apple’s core business activities and introduction. Section 2 analyzes Apple’s ESG activities in the context of the global market. Section 3 explores how Apple’s sustainability strategy contributes to its success. Finally, Section 4 draws conclusions and implications from Apple’s case study.
비대칭적 산업 구조 속에서 수출 및 의존성의 역할 : 신종 코로나 바이러스 감염증 상황시 한국 자동차 산업을 중심으로
한국무역통상학회 무역통상학회지 제24권 제2호 2024.04 pp.283-299
※ 원문제공기관과의 협약기간이 종료되어 열람이 제한될 수 있습니다.
This paper examines the outcome of strategic choice of auto parts suppliers during the COVID-19 pandemic. Given that auto parts suppliers are more dependent to and smaller than their buyers (automakers) in the automobile industry, the strategic choices of auto parts suppliers are subject to the relationship with automakers. Given such asymmetric dependence and power imbalance between those two parties, we examine the impact of flexibility (exports) and commitment (to buyers) of auto parts suppliers. Analyzing the data from the auto parts suppliers in South Korea during the COVID-19 pandemic, we discovered the inverted U-relationship between exports and the financial performance. However, the commitment hypothesis was not statistically significant.
네트워크 분석을 활용한 아마존과 쿠팡의 특허 데이터 분석 : 무역 관점에서
한국무역통상학회 무역통상학회지 제24권 제2호 2024.04 pp.301-324
※ 원문제공기관과의 협약기간이 종료되어 열람이 제한될 수 있습니다.
Trade volumes are increasing in both global and Korean e-commerce markets. This study collected patent data of Amazon and Coupang registered from 2015 to 2023 through the WIPS ON patent database and analyzed them using the co-classification patent network method. The main finding is that Amazon’s technology in the e-commerce platform is more focused on user convenience-oriented technologies such as voice recognition and interactive technologies. In order to develop strategies to help domestic companies export through platforms such as Amazon and domestic companies enter the export market, Korean companies should develop and patent e-commerce-related technologies to support cross-border transactions, global supply chain management, and international market expansion, thereby contributing to the growth of e-commerce trade.
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