Earticle

Since the inauguration of President Trump, the U. S. trade policy has changed its course dramatically departing from more than 70 years after the GATT enacted and followed through by the WTO regime. This paper tries to find the reasons for such deviations from the U. S. dissatisfaction of the inefficient dispute settlement‘s results recent years. With a simple statistical model using ordered logit regressions, this paper finds that the U. S. had been successful in having more favorable results than other WTO members at least for the early ten years of the regime. However, using the same model, empirical tests for the periods after since shows the efficiency of the dispute settlements for the U. S. has not only been deteriorated but also lost much statistical significances. Looking back to the long history of the protective U. S. trade policy birthed even soon after the independence, it's not surprising to witness the changes in her make overs. Multilateral trade regimes after all were designed to serve the U. S. trade interests and, with its decreased effectiveness in recent years, they want to have a new system toward more of their favors. This paper empirically proves why that changes has started with focused on the WTO dispute settlement's performances.

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the optimal monetary policy in the context of a two-country model. I have incorporated the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model. The main conclusions are summaries as follows. First, using bayesian estimation technic with Korea data, the estimated parameters are in the range of reasonable interpretation. Second, based on estimated parameters, the impulse response analysis has been implemented for the technology, cost-push and foreign income shocks. When there is a one standard deviation of technology shock, the output gap decreases as the output under flexible price increases. However, the output decreases since the central bank decreases the nominal interest rate to keep the output gap on the long-run equilibrium. The domestic and CPI inflation decrease as the total supply exceeds its long-run equilibrium. Third, social welfare loss analysis shows that the SDIT and FDIT are optimal in the sense that those alternative simple interest rate rules minimize the social welfare loss evaluated by the domestic inflation and output gap. The exchange rate peg, however, is suboptimal even though it stabilize the volatility of exchange rate.

As logistics has emerged as a visible and important factor in corporate strategy, the necessity of effective development and application of logistics strategy is increasing to realize the value of logistics as a source of competitive differentiation. Therefore, this study classifies strategic types by applying empirical classification criteria centering on logistics activities carried out by companies, and analyzed the differences in importance of logistics activities by these strategic types. First of all, the result of analysis of the importance of logistics strategy of the entire company showed that relationship-oriented strategy was the most important, followed by cost-oriented strategy and information-oriented strategy. In the analysis of the importance of sub-factors by logistics strategy, the effort to achieve the goal was the most important factor, followed by the degree of customer cooperation and the provision of additional services. On the other hand, activities related to information sharing were found to be less important. Next, in the analysis of the importance of logistics strategy through comparison by industry, shippers recognize that relation-oriented strategy is more important than cost-oriented strategy. There was a difference in perception in the analysis of the importance of logistics strategies between industries. On the other hand, the information-oriented strategy was found to be relatively insignificant for both shipper and logistics service companies in analyzing the importance of logistics strategy.

This study investigates the determinants of the current account before and after the Global Financial Crisis(GFS) in Korea. For this purpose, we divide the determinants into two factors, economic variables and structural variables and estimate these factors’ effect on the current account by using GMM. We find that economic variables, such as the business cycle and the terms of trade, have lost its statistical significance after the GFC. Also, after the GFC, the export structure has been changed around the hi-quality products and the proportion of trade to emerging countries has been increased. And we define the recessionary current account surplus and examine its characteristics in Korea.

This paper studies the stock price response centering on the target stock price change announcement date in order to find out whether the price change of analysts belonging to domestic securities firms can be useful information for investors. The data used in the empirical analysis of this study are the stocks of the securities market whose target price has changed for the past five years from January 2014 to December 2018. The changes of target price is 9,695 upwards and 9,971 downwards. The main findings of this study are as follows. First, when analysts changed target stock price, such as upwards and upwards, the stock price continued to rise from around D-200 to D+2. In addition, when the target stock price was changed from downward to upward, the share price fell, and then rose sharply from about D-30 before the announcement date to D+2 on the release date, and then gradually dropped thereafter. On the other hand, it is interesting to note that when analysts changed target stock price upwards, the pace of stock price increases as announcement date approach. Second, when analysts changed their target price continuously downward, the share price dropped sharply from about D-200 before the announcement date to D+3 on the release date, and then slowly dropped. In addition, when the price target was changed from upward to downward, the target stock price rises slowly and then drops sharply from D-60 days to D+1 days immediately after the announcement. The share price continued to fall after D+1, just after the announcement date. The results of this study are meaningful in that investors in the capital market are provided with appropriate information on the buying and selling timing and holding period in the short term.

Machine tools are called mother machine symbolizing the status as a backbone of the whole machinery industry. Among the major machine tools are machining center, lathe, drilling machine, grinding machine, presses and forging machines. Main upstream industries of machine tools are forging, moulding, heat treatment, precision measurements, noise/vibration control, electronic controls and CAD/CAM, while the main downstream industries are machinery, automobiles, aviation, electronics, and shipbuilding to name a few. We study the changes in Korean machine tool trade competitiveness with the European Union(EU) following the enactment of Korea-EU FTA on July 1st 2011. Korean machine tool export volume to the EU has increased from 0.16% of total exports to the EU in 1991 to 1.13% in 2018 while import volume of Korean machine tools from the EU decreased from 1.80% of total imports from the region in 1991 to 0.41% in 2018. For the analysis of changes in the international competitiveness of Korean machine tool industry, we have applied various indices and included the US, China, Japan and Germany in the sample. First, in terms of RCA(revealed comparative advantage), Korea ranked second with 3.102~4.771 after Japan with 7.457~9.852. Second, for TSI(trade specialization index), Korea showed a large variation among eight 4-digit HS codes(HS8456~HS8463). This indicates Korea is concentrating on a couple of key sub-groups of machine tools. Third, for CAC(comparative advantage by countries), we could find that Korea recorded the highest level both before and after the Korea-EU FTA with a large margin against major competing countries. Finally, in terms of ESI(export similarity index), Korea is competing in the EU market most fiercely with Japan and then with Germany and the US. Overall, following the Korea-EU FTA, Korean machine tool industry has improved her trade competitiveness against major producer countries by a noticeable difference.

The purpose of this study is to examine the relationship between supply chain collaboration, flexibility, product modularization and export performance from the perspective of supply chain in consideration of recent trade environment and market changes. 7 hypotheses were analyzed empirically by the PLS structural equation model. The results show that supply chain collaborative activities has a positive impact on flexibility and product modularization. In addition, flexibility affects product modularization and export performance. Flexibility also serves as a partial mediating effect between collaborative activities and export performance.

The International Chamber of Commerce has launched Incoterms®2020, the newest edition of the globally recognised trade terms for the delivery of goods, providing certainty and clarity to international trade. Some of the main changes to the Incoterms®2020 include on board Bill of lading have been included in FCA due to the Banks insistence on them for Letters of Credit, and different levels of insurance coverage in CIF and CIP, and so on. And in the process of revising Incoterms®2020, many of the key elements of new Incoterms have already been leaked through the drafting group’s statements. There had been suggestions of the introduction of a new Cost and Insurance term(CNI). In the event, these changes have not materialized. The purpose of this article is to provide the main changes and implications for newly revised Incoterms

This study analyze the effect of GMP MRA (Good Manufacturing Process Mutual Recognition Agreement) on bilateral trade flows in medical products using EU and 6 other countries cases. Estimation results using gravity and difference in difference models suggest that GMP MRA increases the bilateral trade flows of medical products by 44~235%. This results imply the trade improvement effect by GMP MRA is significant, which suggests that Korea might promote GMP MRA with trading partners.