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본 연구는 유가증권 및 코스닥 시장의 자사주 취득 기업을 대상으로 자사주 취득공시 이전의 내부자 거래를 이용하여 순매수 및 비매수 표본으로 구분한 후, 단기 및 장기 성과에 차별성이 존재하는지를 분석한다. 또한 가치주와 성장주에서 장기성과가 차별적으로 나타나는지를 분석한다. 본 연구의 주요 분석 결과는 다음과 같다. 첫째, 단기성과는 유가증권 시장과 코스닥 시장에서 모두 양(+)으로 나타나지만 내부자 순매수와 비매수 표본은 유의한 차이를 보이지 않는다. 둘째, 장기성과는 두 시장에서 상이한 결과를 보인다. 유가증권 시장에서 내부자 순매수 표본과 비매수 표본의 장기성과는 유의적인 차이를 보이지 않는다. 반면, 코스닥 시장은 내부자 순매수 표본이 비매수 표본보다 더 높은 장기성과가 나타나고 유의적인 차이를 보인다. 따라서 내부자 거래는 특히 코스닥 시장에서 추가적인 신호를 전달한다고 추론 가능하다. 셋째, 가치주와 성장주로 구분하여 장기성과를 분석한 결과는 유가증권 및 코스닥 시장에서 비슷한 결과를 보인다. 즉, 두 시장 모두에서 가치주는 내부자 순매수와 비매수 표본 간에 유의한 차이를 보이지 않지만 성장주는 순매수 표본이 비매수 표본보다 유의하게 더 높은 장기성과를 보인다. 따라서 내부자 거래의 저평가 신호는 특히 성장주 표본에서 강건하게 전달되는 것으로 판단된다. 본 연구를 통해 유가증권 시장보다 정보비대칭이 심한 코스닥 시장에서 자사주 취득 이전의 내부자 거래가 기업가치의 저평가 정보를 포함하여 추가적인 신호전달이 가능함을 확인할 수 있었다.
Share repurchase is the buyback process that firms use to repurchase their own stocks. It is a major financial policy of many firms, and its use has recently increased. Share repurchases can signal firm value to investors, not only because most firms mention undervaluation as a key motivation for share repurchases but also because investors look favorably on repurchasing decisions. However, it is unclear whether repurchasing firms truly are undervalued. Ikenberry, Lakonishok, and Vermaelen (1995) divided US stocks into two groups based on their book-to-market ratio (B/M), and analyzed each group’s long-term stock returns. They found that value stocks with a higher B/M had earned a cumulative abnormal return (CAR) of 45.3% four years after the repurchase announcement, whereas glamor stocks with a lower B/M had earned almost 0% CAR. They concluded that share repurchases are a major signal for value stocks but not for glamor stocks. Byun (2004) divided a sample of firms into two groups based on abnormal earnings before interest and tax (EBIT), and compared low EBIT firms with high EBIT firms. Compared with the high EBIT firms, the low EBIT firms had a negative long-term stock performance, suggesting that undervaluation is not the motivation for share repurchase. How, then, can we identify which of there purchasing firms are truly undervalued? One way to identify undervalued repurchasing firms is to consider insider trading before share repurchase announcements. While share repurchasing is the buyback of a firm’s own stocks at the firm level, insider trading is personal trading by individuals with inside knowledge, such as the largest shareholders and directors. The decision-makers for these two types of trading are the same, so insiders have an incentive to increase their personal stakes if the firm is truly undervalued (Lee, Mikkelson, and Partch, 1992; Chan, Ikenberry, Lee, and Wang, 2012). Therefore, we examined whether insider trading prior to share repurchase was an additional signal of firm value. Share repurchasing firms in the KOSPI and KOSAQ markets in Korea were divided into a net-buy group and a non-buy group, based on insider trading for the six months before the repurchases. We then looked for differences between the short-term and long-term abnormal returns of the two groups. We further divided the sample into a value stock group and a glamor stock group, and investigated the relationship between insider trading and long-term abnormal returns. The main results were as follows. First, there were no differences in the short-term abnormal returns of the KOSPI and KOSDAQ markets. There were also no significant differences in the short-term CARs of the net-buy group and the non-buy group, even though the short-term CARs were significantly positive around the time of the repurchase announcements. Firms are required to complete repurchases of their own stocks within three months. It is thus possible that investors do not consider insider trading prior to share repurchase and simply react to the share repurchasing announcement. Second, unlike the short-term reaction, there were significant differences in the long-term abnormal returns of the KOSPI and KOSDAQ markets. There were no significant differences between the net-buy and the non-buy groups in the KOSPI market but there were significant differences between the two groups in the KOSDAQ market. We tested for robustness using buy and hold abnormal returns (BHARs) and CARs based on the Fama and French (1993) three-factor model. We conclude that insider trading can convey additional information regarding firm value only in the KOSDAQ market, which has higher information asymmetry. Third, there were no significant differences in the long-term abnormal returns of value stocks for the insider net-buy and non-buy groups in both the KOSPI and the KOSDAQ markets. However, for glamor stocks, share repurchases by the insider net-buy group showed a larger long-run CAR than those of the non-buy group in both markets. Therefore, we conclude that insider trading prior to share repurchase can convey information, especially for glamor stocks. Overall, insider trading prior to share repurchase is associated with private information about firm value, and can convey a signal in addition to the information signaled by share repurchases.
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본 연구는 Preqin에서 제공하는 해외 사모펀드의 성과를 분석하여, 최근 급증하고 있는 국내외 기관투자자들의 사모투자(대체투자) 시 투자의사결정에 활용할 수 있는 결과를 제시한다. 본 연구를 요약하면 크게 다음과 같다. 첫째, 사모펀드의 위험-수익 특성은 자산, 지역, 전략의 선택에 따라 상이하게 나타났다. 둘째, 기존 Humphrey-Jenner (2013)는 산업별 지역별 분산투자가 사모펀드의 성과에 (+)의 영향을 미친다고 하였으나, 사모금융형 펀드에서 초기단계에 투자하는 벤처전략의 경우 산업별 분산투자가 펀드의 IRR에 (+)의 영향을 미쳤고, 성장단계에 투자하는 전략의 경우 (-)의 영향을 미쳐서, 집중투자가 유효함을 보이고 있으며, 다른 전략의 경우 영향이 없었다. 성숙단계에 투자하는 바이아웃 및 메자닌의 경우는 지역별 분산투자가 성과에 (+)의 영향을 미쳤으나, 다른 전략의 경우는 지역별 분산투자의 영향이 없었다. 한편, 부동산 펀드에서는 산업별, 지역별 분산투자효과가 펀드성과에 유의한 영향을 미치지 않았다.
Investment in private markets, formerly known as alternative investment, is increasing in Korea and elsewhere. The value of the assets managed by the National Pension Service (NPS) will reach USD 500 billion by the end of 2015 and is forecast to grow to USD 2.5 trillion over the next 30 years. The NPS is currently allocating around 10% of total assets to private markets, and will increase this to 14% within the next 5 years according to its mid-term asset allocation plan. As the Korean economy matures, financial assets held by institutional investors will grow exponentially, from USD 2 trillion in 2014 to USD 5 trillion over the next 30 years. As the local economy becomes saturated, huge growth in financial assets will flow to overseas markets, especially to private markets, which is the theme of this study. Global pension and endowment schemes are also increasing their investments in private markets as returns on fixed incomes have become very low following the financial crisis and the risk-return profile of equity is not attractive. Private markets provide diversification benefits and better returns for investors. Nevertheless, studies on private markets are limited in Korea. Previous international studies have focused on private equity dedicated to buyout and venture or on private equity real estate (PERE) funds. This comprehensive study included both private equity funds and various real asset funds such as real estate. Using Preqin’s database, a comprehensive global sample of the IRRs of 2,280 private equity funds and 380 PERE funds from 1985 to 2004 was analyzed. The IRR and standard deviation of various types of private equity fund that have not previously been studied (including not only buyout and venture but also growth, mezzanine, distressed and fund of funds) were analyzed. Various real assets such as real estate, infrastructure, resource and timber were also analyzed. Various types of real estate fund, such as debt, core, value-added, opportunistic and fund of funds, were included in the analysis. This is the first study to analyze the risk-return profiles of various assets, types of private equity and real estate funds. The Sharpe ratio concept of dividing IRR by standard deviation was used to determine the relative attractiveness of different assets in different regions. At the asset level, infrastructure was the most attractive, followed by real estate and private equity. However, type-level analysis gave a different result, and indicated that choice among different types of equity, assets and regions, is an important factor in explaining the risks and returns of private funds. Investors can use the risk-return profiles and information about relative attractiveness provided by this study to make decisions about asset allocation among different asset types in private markets in different regions. Humphery-Jenner studied how the diversification level of buyout and venture funds affected the performance of funds and concluded that diversification positively influenced the performance of funds due to knowledge sharing between different funds. There have been disagreements about whether diversification in industry or region has a positive or a negative effect on the performance of funds. This study extended Humphery-Jenner’s previous study to various types of private equity fund and real estate fund. Although Humphery-Jenner used Preqin’s industry classification, this study used the Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS) to improve objectivity. For geographic diversification, this study measured the number of continents rather than the number of countries, as used by Humphery-Jenner. For real estate, the number of property types, such as office, retail and residential, was measured. The same method was used to measure geographic diversification. The overall analysis of private equity funds agreed with Humphery-Jenner’s findings, confirming that industry and geographic diversification positively influenced fund performance. The number of industries and regions divided by the number of relevant staff negatively influenced fund performance, suggesting that staff numbers should increase as diversification increases. However, the results varied for each type of fund, and firms at different stages were affected differently by diversification. Early-stage venture funds showed benefits from industry diversification. However, the performance of growth funds was negatively associated with diversification, implying that growth funds benefit from concentration rather than diversification. Buyout and mezzanine funds investing in mature-stage firms were positively influenced by geographic diversification. Depending on the stage of the firm, fund managers may thus require either diversification or concentration in region and industry. In real estate, diversification had no effect on the performance of funds in both the overall market and at the individual type level. In conclusion, some types of private equity fund receive benefits from industrial or geographic diversification due to knowledge sharing. Growth funds benefit from concentration by focusing on the strengths of managers. Managers of other private equity funds and real estate funds may choose either diversification or concentration strategies.
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본 연구는 산업선두 대기업에 납품하는 납품업체들의 경영성과를 분석하였다. 대기업과 납품업체 간의 거래 관계는 주로 교섭력의 관점에서 설명되어 왔다. 교섭력을 가진 대기업이 납품업체에 비용 전가 등을 통하여 대기업의 수익을 올리거나 손실을 보상하는 경우 납품업체의 수익성은 대기업의 수익성과 음(-)의 관계를 가질 것으로 예상되었으나 분석 결과 유의한 양(+)의 관계에 있는 것으로 나타났다. 하지만 비납품업체 보다 납품업체의 매출총이익률이 유의하게 더 낮아 대기업에 단가를 인하해서 납품하고 있음을 확인할 수 있었다. 영업이익률은 납품업체와 비납품업체 간의 차이가 사라지고 매출액 순이익률은 납품업체가 더 높게 나타났다. 매출 대비 수익성 분석은 납품업체가 납품 단가의 인하로 발생한 손실을 영업비용 절감으로 만회하는 것을 보여주었다. 또한, 활동성 변수 분석에서 총자산회전율과 매출채권 회전율, 재고자산 회전율 분석에서 납품업체의 활동성이 비납품업체 보다 더 높게 나타났다. 납품업체가 자산을 더 효율 적으로 운용하고 있으며, 원재료 구입부터 매출 대금 회수까지의 현금회전도 더 신속하게 이루어지고 있었다. 듀퐁항등식에 의하면 총자산회전율에 의해 총자산이익률과 자기자본 이익률이 높아질 수 있는데, 납품업체의 높은 총자산회전율로 인하여 총자산이익률과 자기자본이익률이 더욱 뚜렷하게 높아지는 것으로 나타났다. 가격 마진을 낮추고 자산 회전율을 높여 성과를 내는 것은 4대 기업집단(삼성, LG, SK, 현대자동차)소속 납품업체 에서 더욱 강하게 나타났다. 본 연구는 내생성을 통제한 뒤에도 일관된 결과를 보여주었다.
In recent years, concern about the economic polarization of large firms and small and medium-sized firms has drawn attention to the supply chain. Despite the economic and social importance of win-win cooperation between large firms and small and medium enterprises (SMEs), due to a lack of data there have been few analyses of the relationship between suppliers and large firms. This study investigates the accounting performance of the suppliers of large firms, and compares it with the accounting performance of the suppliers of other firms. Large firm buyers are defined as industry leading companies (the top two companies in an industry), and suppliers are the companies that sell to those firms. For a company to be defined as a supplier of a large buyer, that company’s sales to a large buyer should be more than 10 percent of its total sales. Sales data for the suppliers are taken from KED (Korea Enterprise Data), which provides transaction data from individual firms. Non-suppliers, those who do not sell to the large firms, are matched with the suppliers by asset size and 3-digit industry code. A total of 6,238 firm-year records for suppliers that sold to 104 industry leading companies between 2005 and 2012 are used, and 6,635 firm-year records for non-suppliers are matched with those of the suppliers. Conventionally, the relationship between large companies and their suppliers is explained in terms of relative bargaining power. If a large firm shifts costs to suppliers to make profits or to cover losses, the relationship between the suppliers’ margins and those of the large buyers is expected to be negative. However, we find that suppliers’ margins have a positive relationship with those of large buyers. Next, we compare the gross margins of suppliers with those of non-suppliers, and find that the gross margins of suppliers are significantly lower than those of non-suppliers. This result is consistent with findings previously reported in the Korean literature, which suggest that large buyers’ requests for suppliers to lower their product prices reduces the suppliers’ gross margins. Suppliers’ and non-suppliers’ operating margins, which reflect operating expenses, are not significantly different, but the profit margins of suppliers are significantly higher than those of non-suppliers. Analysis of the margins shows that suppliers’ operating and other expenses are lower than those of non- suppliers. A buyer’s reputation might reduce its supplier’s marketing expenses, which could offset the loss in selling price. Also efficient asset utilization induces cost reductions and can be measured by turnover ratios, we compare turnover ratios for suppliers and non-suppliers. Fewer days in inventory and receivables shortens the cash conversion cycle and improves the management of working capital, which is especially important to SMEs. We find that the asset turnover ratios, inventory turnover ratios and accounts receivables turnover of suppliers are significantly higher than those of non-suppliers. More specifically, the number of days in inventory and in receivables are lower for suppliers than for non-suppliers. Fewer days in inventory lowers the cost of inventory and fewer days in receivables lowers the cost of capital. There is no significant difference in payables turnover between suppliers and non-suppliers. Turnover ratio analysis shows that suppliers make more efficient use of assets than non-suppliers. According to the DuPont Identity, asset turnover increases return on assets (ROA) and return on equity (ROE) even though profit margins are not higher. In our analysis, we find that suppliers’ profit margins are higher than those of non-suppliers. Therefore, the better use of assets by suppliers enhances ROA and ROE compared with non-suppliers. Lower gross profit margins and enhanced asset utilization are more common among suppliers that are affiliated with the top four business groups (Samsung, LG, SK and Hyundai Motors). Samples are divided into two groups: suppliers of the top four business groups and their matched non- suppliers, and suppliers of other large firms and their matched non-suppliers. A small profit and quick returns strategy is apparent for the suppliers of the top business groups. This strategy means that the top business groups have more bargaining power than other large buyer firms, but can also help their suppliers to achieve higher sales with the associated benefit of a higher ROA and ROE. In this study, the performance and supplier dummies may lead to an endogeneity problem. However, after controlling for endogeneity using two-stage least squares (2SLS) regression, the results are consistent. To test robustness, the non-supplier sample is restructured according to a propensity scoring match. The main results are also consistent with the analysis of the restructured sample. This study shows that public perceptions of the relationship between large firms and small to medium-sized firms are partially correct. The low gross margins of suppliers can be interpreted as evidence of the bargaining power of large firms. However, suppliers obtain a higher ROA and ROE than non-suppliers due to efficient asset utilization. Given these results, we hope that both the suppliers and the large firms will appreciate each other’s role and strengthen their win–win relationships.
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본 연구는 한국 주식시장의 KOSPI 200 시장지수와 국제외환시장의 일본 엔(USD/JPY) 환율의 일중 고빈도 자료를 이용하여 다양한 수익률 측정시간 간격으로부터 산출된 수익률과 실현변동성에 대한 분포적 및 동적 속성을 실증적으로 조사하였다. 주요 검증결과에 의하면, KOSPI 200 시장지수와 일본 엔 환율의 수익률 실증적 분포에 대한 통계적 속성은 정규분포와 분명한 차이를 갖고, 수익률 측정시간 간격의 차이는 분포의 정규성 정도에 의미 있는 영향을 미쳤다. 또한 재무 분야에서 널리 알려진 수익률 분포의 높은 중심부분과 두꺼운 꼬리부분의 특징은 신뢰구간 90% 수준과 유의수준 0.5% 수준에서 각각 확인되는 현상임을 발견하였다. 다음으로, 고빈도 수익률자료로부터 산출된 실현 분산과 실현표준편차는 로그정규분포에 유사한 특징을 보였지만, 로그변환 실현표준 편차는 정규분포의 속성에 가까웠다. 그리고 수익률을 실현표준편차로 표준화한 조정된 수익률은 일반적으로 잘 알려진 수익률과 달리 정규분포에 매우 근접한 특징을 보였다. 이상에서 언급한 수익률과 실현변동성의 통계적 속성은 주식시장과 외환시장에 관계없이 관찰되는 공통성을 가졌다.
This study used intraday high-frequency data over a 10-year period to empirically investigate the distributional and dynamic properties of returns and measurements of realized volatility in a situation of high market liquidity in the KOSPI 200 stock market index and the Japanese yen foreign exchange rate. The purpose and scope of the research were as follows. First, we examined the statistical characteristics of the empirical distribution of each return using high-frequency price data with eight time scales ranging from 1 min to 1 day, and determined the degree of difference from a normal distribution and the effect of increasing the measurement time interval from 1 min to 1 day. Second, we investigated the distributional and dynamic properties of the empirical distribution of each measurement of realized volatility calculated from the high-frequency returns, and the distribution of adjusted returns divided by the realized volatility. The empirical distribution of the returns from the KOSPI 200 market index and the Japanese yen exchange rate clearly differed from a normal distribution, with a more peaked central part and a much fatter tail. The time scale used to calculate the returns had a significant influence on the results; the shorter the measurement time scale, the larger the deviation from a normal distribution. Additionally, we found that the higher central part and much fatter tail of the empirical distribution of the returns, compared with a normal distribution, was supported at the 90% confidence interval in the central part and a significance level of 0.5% of the confidence interval in the tail. [The description of the confidence intervals and significance levels with respect to the center and tail of the distribution needs to be clarified.] The dynamic properties of the returns did not persist over time, decaying slowly according to changes in the autocorrelation from lag 1 to lag 100; that is, the distribution displayed unpredictability. The realized variance and realized standard deviation of volatility calculated from the highfrequency KOSPI 200 market index data and the Japanese yen exchange rate had the characteristics of a log-normal distribution, with a higher central part and a tail that was highly skewed to the right, whereas the distribution of the logarithmic realized standard deviation was similar to a normal distribution. The predictability of the measurements of the realized volatility was confirmed by time series persistence, in which the autocorrelation of the realized volatility decreased slowly according to the change from lag 1 to lag 100. Interestingly, the adjusted return divided by the realized standard deviation showed very similar characteristics to a normal distribution, unlike the distributional properties of the original return. Based on the observed distributional and dynamic properties of the returns and the realized volatility, commonality may exist regardless of the type of market. These findings suggest that there is a need to carefully consider the distribution and dynamic properties of returns when establishing an empirical design using intraday high-frequency data. An increasing number of studies have reported results based on empirical designs using intraday high-frequency data, and researchers have tried to control for the negative effects of market liquidity, measurement errors, and market microstructure. Unfortunately, however, they have not seriously considered the possibility that the time scale used to calculate the returns might influence the results. The main findings of this study suggest that time scales may be crucial influencing factors when establishing the design of an empirical test.
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본 연구는 한-미 FTA를 통한 관세변화를 시장경쟁정도에 미치는 외생적 충격으로 고려하여, 기존연구와는 차별화된 특수한 자료를 구성하고 분석하여 한국 시장에서 시장경쟁정도가 주식수익률에 어떠한 영향을 미치는 지에 대하여 실증분석을 하였다. 시장경쟁정도가 주식수익률에 미치는 순수효과를 알아보기 위하여 기존의 HHI와 같은 시장경쟁의 대용변수를 사용하여 생길 수 있는 문제를 통제하고, 이중차분법을 활용한 실증분석 결과, 관세가 유지(소폭 하락)된 제품을 생산하는 기업에 비하여, 관세철폐 또는 하향 변경(대폭 하락)된 제품을 생산하는 기업의 주식수익률이 유의하게 낮아지는 변화를 관찰할 수 있었다. 이러한 결과는 시장경쟁이 증가함에 따라 기업의 주식수익률이 감소된다는 것으로, 기존 연구들이 시장경쟁이 주식수익률에 미치는 영향에 대하여 각 국가마다, 각 연구에서 상이한 연구결과들과 상반된 주장이 제시되고 있는 가운데, 한국시장에서는 외부경쟁자의 유입으로 인한 제품시장경쟁 심화가 기존 국내 경쟁기업 들의 주식수익률을 감소시킨다는 증거를 제시한다.
This study examines how product market competition affects stock market returns by treating the advent of the Free Trade Agreement (FTA) between the United States and South Korea as an external shock. The relationship between product market competition and stock returns is unclear. For firms subject to strong product market competition, investors may demand higher rates of return to compensate for greater business risk or bankruptcy risk. For firms that face less market competition, investors may require lower returns because the business risk and risk of bankruptcy are correspondingly lower. However, the actual realized returns may not be as expected. Firms subject to strong market competition may earn low returns because of the stiff competition in the product market, and firms that face lower product market competition may earn higher returns because the lower market competition allows them to generate a steady cash flow. We are motivated by the limitations of previous studies that measure the degree of product market competition by market share to construct a CR (concentration ratio) or HHI (Hirschman-Herfindahl Index). These studies ignore the possibility that firms in the same industry may have vertical relationships; some firms in the industry may not be competitors, but rather cooperators. We take a new approach by considering how the Korea-US FTA increases market competition for products supplied by individual companies. We hypothesize that the decreased tariff resulting from the FTA induces a more competitive market environment and that the degree of tariff reduction is related to the degree of competition. We use the effective date of the FTA, March 15, 2012. By matching the degree of tariff reduction resulting from the FTA with product market sales, we construct a dataset for measuring product market competition. Specifically, we choose firms in the manufacturing industry that were listed on the Korea Stock Exchange between 2011 and 2013. We then match the firms’ two highest-selling products with the tariff change resulting from the FTA. The final sample comprises 714 firms. This unique data design reduces the biases that have often produced confounding effects and inconsistent empirical results in previous studies. We classify firms into a high-tariff-change group (the treatment group) and a low-tariff-change group (the control group). We use two different cutoff points for the change in tariff . The first is a tariff reduction of 1.6%, which places a similar number of firms in each group. Our results are robust when cutoff points for the change in tariff of 2%, 3%, and 4% are used. As an alternative way of dividing our sample, we group the firms based on whether they are subject to a tariff change (the positive-tariff-change group) or not (the no-tariff-change group). We then use controlled difference-in-difference (DiD) analysis to mitigate the possible endogeneity problem. First, we use the annual returns of firms as the dependent variable and run a DiD regression. Second, we examine the periods surrounding the effective date of the FTA and test whether there are significant differences in the monthly stock returns of firms that are subject to different tariff changes. The DiD estimation results indicate that both the monthly and yearly stock returns of the high-tariff-change group (and positive-tariff-change group) are significantly lower than those of the low-tariff-change group (and no-tariff-change group). This is clear empirical evidence that tougher product market competition lowers stock returns. Our results differ from those of previous studies, such as Hou and Robinson (2006) who examine the US market, Gallagher, Ignatieva, and McCulloch (2014) who examine the Australian market, and Ryu, Ryu, and Baek (2014) who examine the Korean market. Our results do support the argument of Bustamante and Donangelo (2014), who find that tougher product market competition reduces exposure to systematic risk and thus lowers stock market returns, rather than reducing profit margins and thus increasing exposure to systematic risk. When we examine a subgroup of firms that experienced the elimination of tariffs, we find that a greater increase in US imports is associated with a lower stock return. Our study makes the following contributions to the literature. First, we use an external shock to mitigate the methodological problems that have plagued previous studies. Second, for a country which relies heavily on foreign trade and is in the process of negotiating FTAs, we show how such agreements affect market competition and the financial performance of local firms. Third, whereas previous studies on this topic have inconsistent or mixed results, our results are strong and robust to different model specifications and empirical methodologies.
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