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1

조건절의 부정극어 인허 재고찰 KCI 등재

이두원

한국중앙영어영문학회 영어영문학연구 제68권 2호 2026.06 pp.99-124

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6,400원

Conditional clauses in both English and Korean exhibit a similar distribution in that they license weak NPIs but not strong NPIs. Negative idiomatic NPI-even expressions such as han chi-uy ocha-lado ‘one inch-GEN error-CNC’ are compatible with downward-entailing scalar change predicates in the main clause that yield negation or adverse outcomes such as blocking, exclusion, or sanction. Unlike in English, the non-veridical conditional marker -myen ‘-if’ in Korean does not independently license NPI-even; rather, licensing arises from the interaction between the conditional clause and negation or adverse outcome predicates in the main clause. Expressions such as etten pili-to ‘any corruption-EVEN’ and etten tokkukmwul-to ‘any poison-EVEN’ in conditional clauses often receive an NPI-even interpretation when licensed by negation or adverse outcome predicates in the main clause. Unlike amwu ‘any’, etten allows a specificity-based minimal concessive interpretation, enabling etten-N-to ‘any-N-EVEN’ to be licensed across conditional clause boundaries. This also explains why, in English conditional clauses, the NPI any corresponds not to Korean amwu-N-(i)-lato but rather to etten-N-(i)-lato; both, together with the nouns they modify, function as weak NPIs.

2

6,400원

Kim, Ah-Young. (2007). Analysis on semantic types of Chinese conditional without connectives-Case study of Chinese conditionals translated into -meon in Korean-. Conference Interpretation and Translation, 9(2), 63-88. The structure of a composite sentence in Chinese is different from that in Korean. While parataxis are frequently used in Chinese composite sentences, the visible connectives are necessary in Korean. Therefore, analysis on the principle of Chinese composite sentences and the function of connectives is essential for equivalent translation and interpretation of Chinese composite sentences. This paper, a preliminary study to identify exact functions of Chinese subjunctive connectives, is to demonstrate the types of Chinese conditional without visible connectives. In previous studies, conditional and hyperthetic have been regarded to have same functions. The analysis, however, revealed that Chinese conditional without subjunctive connectives represents not only hyperthetic conditional including counter-factual conditional and uncertain conditional, but also non-hyperthetic conditional such as repeat conditional and future conditional. Among them, hyperthetic conditional can be expressed with subjunctive connectives while non-hyperthetic conditional cannot. In order to precisely translate and interpret Chinese conditional sentences into Korean, the discrepancies between sentences in Chinese conditional without subjunctive connectives and those with subjunctive connectives need to be investigated. Keywords: composite sentences without connectives, conditional, subjunctive connectives, hyperthetic, non-hyperthetic

3

「ナラ(NARA)」의 담화기능 탐구 KCI 등재후보

고용진

한국언어연구학회 언어학연구 제19권 1호 2014.04 pp.21-38

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5,200원

Ko, Yong-Jin. 2014. A study on the discourse functions of ‘NARA’. Journal of Linguistic Studies 19(1), 21-38. 言語を習得して自由自在にコミュニケーションできる能力は「言語の知識の形成」とつながっている。大竹(1988)は、「「言語の知識」とは、「言語的コミュニケーション能力」であって、「文法の知識」と「語用論の知識」からなる」と述べている。いままで意味論の研究が進められ、広義の談話分析と呼ばれる領域で研究成果をあげている。「談話」は、ことばがコミュニケーションのために使われるときに作る、文脈を持ったまとまりのことである。談話分析では、たとえば、「スポーツ大会に誘う」という「勧誘談話」を達成する過程で、どのようなことばが使われるのかを調べ、複数の文のつながりがどのように展開するかを記述するということである。談話のまとまりの中で、どのような「主題」と「叙述」が情報の流れとして組み合わされるかを分析することもできる。ここで、日本語の条件表現は、日常推論の特性を最もよく反映する言語形式といえよう。日本語の条件表現に関していえば、坂原(1985), 益岡(1993), 田窪(2006), 有田(2006)などで前․後件の関連性について研究されている。「ナラ」形式については、Akatsuka(1983, 1985)、久野(1973)、益岡(1993)など、その意味機能の観点から分析が行われている。本稿において、まず、「ナラ」形式の典型的な意味について述べ、テクスト構成的機能と対人関係的機能との関連について分析を加えた。(Cheju Halla University)

4

時を表す「タラ」表現 KCI 등재

安善柱

단국대학교 동아시아인문융복합연구소(구 단국대학교 일본연구소) 일본학연구 제25집 2008.09 pp.307-327

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5,700원

本研究では、時と関連する「タラ」について考察を行った。多くの従来の研究で「タラ」表現は、文末が過去の場合を除いては条件表現として扱われてきた。ところで、「タラ」表現には、起る予定や必然的に起ることになっている事柄が前件になっているものがあり、これも見方によっては条件表現の範疇での扱いができないわけではないが、この場合の「タラ」がほんとうに表そうとしているのは、条件でなく、時なのである。 本研究では、まず、このような前件を持つ「タラ」を、条件ではない、時の表現と見るべきいくつかの根拠を提示した。それは、この「タラ」が、「どうしたら」より「いつ」で質問された方が自然なこと、この「タラ」文が過去になった場合に用いられる「カラ」が理由ではなく、状況を表すということ、そして多くの研究でこの「タラ」と同じ意味と言われている「テカラ」が実は条件とは何の関わりがないこと、である。 それから、他にも未来を表す表現があるにも関わらず、いわば時の「タラ」で未来の事態を表すのは何故か、つまり未来のときを、時の「タラ」を以て表した場合に得られる効果、意味合いについて考えた。ここで言えることは、日本語には未来の時のマーカがなく、時の「タラ」がその役割を果たし、未来の表現の一軸を担っている、ということである。この、時の「タラ」は、前後文脈によって前件か後件のどちらかに焦点が当たるようになるが、「いつ」で質問されたり前件と対比される事柄があったりする場合には前件に焦点が置かれ、文脈の流れからして話者と聴者の両方に前件が知られているような場合には後件に焦点が置かれるようになる。前件に焦点がある場合の「タラ」は、「未来のそのときとその後にかけて」という、はっきりしない、ときに幅をきかせた漠然とした時を強調しているのであり、後件に焦点のある場合の「タラ」は、そのはっきりしない時を後件の状況として、一種の前置きのような感じでさりげなく後件に添え、話者がほんとうに言いたがる、メインの後件を文脈の中で唐突でなくさせる形にしているのである。前件が未来の時として働き、しかもちょうどそのときと言えない漠然としたところに、時の「タラ」の特徴が伺えるわけである。  最後に、このような、時の「タラ」と同じ意味として言われている「テカラ」との対照を行ってみた。実は、時の「タラ」のうち、とりわけ前件に焦点が置かれる「タラ」が「テカラ」と意味的に近接するようではあるが、前件の時を強調する「タラ」と、もっぱら時間の前後関係に注目する「テカラ」は基本的なスタンスが異なる表現であることを否定することはできず、これらの表現間のギャップは埋まりそうにない。  以上の考察を通して、確実に起ることになっている未来の時の「タラ」の特徴と意味役割を明らかにすることができたと思われる。

5

Why Is It Difficult To Teach English Subjunctive? KCI 등재

Kang, Seung-Man

한국중앙영어영문학회 영어영문학연구 제49권 1호 2007.03 pp.21-35

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4,800원

This paper delves into complicated aspects of the English subjunctive mood and accordingly suggest teaching implications. I argue that these complexities arise from such grammatical concepts as mood, conditional, tense, and time. First of all, the subjunctive mood should be defined by the speaker’s attitude toward what he says, not by its structures typically beginning with the subordinator if. These structures are generally dubbed as conditionals ranging from zero to the 3rd conditional according to the verbal form of the condition and the result as well. Finally, the two concepts, tense and time, greatly add to the difficulties of the subjunctive mood. The lack of future tense in English gives rise to a discrepancy between tense and time. The complexity arising from this discrepancy makes the teaching and learning of subjunctive a lot more difficult. It is right here that students need to understand that future time can sometimes be expressed even by past tense in the subjunctive mood in particular.

6

Function of Maa pee^ + Low Tone : a Case Study of Discourse Driven Polysemy KCI 등재후보

Payne, Doris L.

한국언어과학회 언어과학 제11권 2호 2004.08 pp.97-139

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9,000원

The Maa pee^+Low-tone construction corresponds to a wide array of adverbial and complement clause notions, including temporal, conditional, purpose, result, motivation, utterance complements, and subjunctive mood. The pattern of senses found in discourse argues that the construction actually codes only that the dependent clause proposition is "temporally related" (in an extended sense) to its matrix proposition. Comprehenders must interpret more specific relations based on stored knowledge and textually-overt lexical items.

7

Enhanced RACH-less conditional handover for LEO intra-satellite system

Kim Tae-Yoon, Lee Wonjae, 김재현

[NRF 연계] 한국통신학회 ICT Express Vol.12 No.1 2026.02 pp.142-146

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원문보기

In this letter, we propose a random access channel (RACH)-less conditional handover (RCHO) algorithm that utilizes antenna gain to predict uplink (UL) grant start timing, reducing signaling overhead and enhancing handover (HO) performance in the low Earth orbit (LEO) intra-satellite system. The proposed algorithm mitigates execution timing unpredictability, allowing a user equipment (UE) to HO to any pre-configured target cell while minimizing signaling overhead. We analyze the performance of the proposed RCHO and compare it with basic HO (BHO), conditional HO (CHO), and RCHO without UL grant start timing prediction. Simulation results demonstrate that RCHO achieves comparable or superior HO performance with the lowest latency while reducing overhead by more than 85% compared to conventional RCHO.

8

On the security of aggregate signature?based conditional privacy-preserving authentication schemes for VANETs

Shim Kyung-Ah, 권혁동

[NRF 연계] 한국통신학회 ICT Express Vol.12 No.3 2026.06 pp.566-570

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원문보기

Certificateless aggregate signature (CLAS) schemes enable multiple vehicles to combine their individual signatures into a single compact authenticator, significantly reducing transmission and verification overhead in bandwidth-constrained vehicular ad-hoc networks (VANETs). This efficiency makes CLAS particularly attractive for real-time authentication in large-scale intelligent transportation systems (ITS). However, we show that two representative CLAS-based conditional privacy-preserving authentication schemes, proposed by Zhu?Guan and Chen?Guan, are vulnerable to a Type I adversary capable of replacing a vehicle’s public key. Such an adversary can forge valid signatures on arbitrary messages without obtaining the vehicle’s partial private key due to the lack of cryptographic binding between public keys and ephemeral randomness, which allows algebraic elimination of the master public key during verification. We analyze the root causes of this flaw and propose hash-based countermeasures that enforce strong binding among all public components. Our results further reveal that conventional linear hash-dependent CLAS constructions face inherent limitations in balancing security, ultra-low latency, and scalability. Thus, a next-generation CLAS design paradigm is required one that moves beyond traditional linear architectures to achieve deployment-level performance in current 5G-V2X environments while being inherently scalable toward future 6G-enabled intelligent transportation systems.

9

A Study for Conditional Mixed Process Model of Bus-related Crashes on Expressway

Reuben Tamakloe, Jungyeol Hong, Dongjoo Park, Yoonhyuk Choi

한국ITS학회 한국ITS학회 학술대회 SMART CITY 새롭게 펼쳐지는 교통 시스템 2018.04 pp.749-754

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4,000원

10

Predicting disaster classification on time is critical to mitigate the damage. Since identifying disaster types requires large amounts of data, and real-world data are often imbalanced, there are many recent works addressing data imbalance problems using generative models. However, if the process of generating text data based on disaster classes and severity is not handled improperly, the quality of the data can be degraded as well as the performance of classification predictions. In this paper, we propose a scheme for generating data with enhanced quality using text based on labels such as informational value of text and severity of disasters. Our experiment results verify the quality of data through the comparisons of prediction performance between various machine learning models.

11

6,900원

Based on the theory of a wedge between the physical and risk-neutral conditional volatilities in Christoffersen, Elkamhi, Feunou, and Jacobs (2009), we develop a modification on the GARCH option pricing model with the filtered historical simulation proposed in Barone-Adesi, Engle, and Mancini (2008). The current conditional volatilities under the physical and risk-neutral measures are the same in the previous model, but should have been allowed to be different. Using extensive data on S&P 500 index options, our approach, which employs the current risk-neutral conditional volatility estimated from the cross-section of the option prices (in contrast to the existing GARCH option pricing models), maintains theoretical consistency under conditional non-normality as well as improves the empirical performances. Remarkably, the risk-neutral volatility dynamics are stable over time under this model. In addition, the comparison between the VIX index and the riskneutral integrated volatility validates our approach economically.

12

Conditional Perfection Revisited KCI 등재

Jae-gyun Song

한국언어과학회 언어과학 제13권 2호 2006.06 pp.210-227

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5,200원

13

Does Conditional Conservatism Affect Credit Ratings? : An Analysis Of Korean KRX Bond Issuers KCI 등재

Lim, Hyoung-Joo, Mali, Dafydd

한국기업경영학회 기업경영연구 제22권 제5호 2015.10 pp.127-147

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5,700원

본 연구는 보수주의적 재무보고가 차기 신용등급에 미치는 영향을 검증하는 것을 목적으로 한다. 1997년 외환위기 이후 신용등급은 투자자에 있어 매우 중요한 지표로 인지되어 왔고 기업들은 이를 유지하거나 상향 조정시키기 위하여 많은 노력을 투입하는 것으로 알려져 있다. 한편 재무보고에 있어 보수주의는 이익의 질을 향상 시키는 오랜 관습으로 인식되어 왔으며(Watts, 2003), 손실을 이익보다 더 적시에 인식함으로써 보다 신뢰할 수 있는 이익 정보의 제공을 돕는 역할을 하는 것으로 알려져 있다. 보수주의적 재무보고는 주주들에게 배분될 수 있는 이익잉여금을 낮게 보고 하도록 유도하기 때문에 기업들은 보다 많은 실제 이익을 기업에 유보할 수 있고 결과적으로 이는 채무불이행 위험(default risk)을 낮추는 역할을 할 수 있다. 따라서 신용평가기관이 만약 기업의 보수주의적 재무보고를 인지한다면 높은 신용등급을 부여할 가능성이 높다. 본 연구는 2002년부터 2013년까지 국내 유가증권 상장기업 중 회사채를 발행한 기업들을 대상으로 보수주의가 신용등급에 미치는 영향을 분석하였다. 구체적으로, Basu(1997)와 Ball and Shivakumar(2005)의 조건부 보수주의 모형(conditional conservatism model)을 이용하여 신용등급 및 신용등급 변화와 보수주의 수준을 관찰하였다. 연구결과를 요약하면 다음과 같다. 먼저 기업의 투자등급에 속하는 신용등급을 가진 기업들이 투기등급을 가진 기업들보다 더 보수적이라는 증거는 찾지를 못했다. 추가분석의 민감도 분석에서도 전반적으로 일관적인 결과가 관찰되었다. 둘째, 투자등급에 속하는 기업들의 신용등급이 상향조정된 경우 보수주의 수준이 높은 것으로 나타났다. 셋째, 표본을 신용등급 상향조정 그룹, 하향조정 그룹, 변화가 없는 그룹으로 구분하여 분석한 결과에서는 신용등급이 상향조정된 기업들이 하향조정 혹은 변화가 없는 기업에 비해서 보수주의 수준이 유의적으로 더 높은 것으로 나타났다. 본 연구의 결과는 보수주의의 수준이 기업의 신용등급을 예측하는데 추가적인 정보를 제공하는 지표로써 활용될 수 있다는 것을 발견했다는 점에서 의미가 있다.

We examine whether there is a relationship between conditional conservatism and credit ratings. Credit rating levels are the ‘opinion‘ of credit rating agencies about a firm’s default risk based on financial statements data and corporate governance information. In South Korea, credit rating levels are issued by National Information & Credit Evaluation (NICE), Korea Investor Services (KIS), Korea Ratings (KR) and Seoul Credit Rating & Information (SCI), and are used by bond investors, debt issuers, and governmental officials for decision making and legislative purposes. Accounting practices such as conditional conservatism have the potential to signal low default risk and financial stability. Accounting conservatism reflects a manager’s tendency to recognize “bad news” in a timelier manner than “good news” (Basu, 1997). The academic community continues to debate the merits of conservatism. However, the majority of studies suggest that conditional conservatism is an accounting practice with the potential to increase accounting quality (Watts, 2003; Roychowdhury and Watts, 2007; Ball and Kothari, 2008). In the U. S., numerous studies find an association between level of conservatism and credit ratings (Ahmed et al., 2002; Moerman (2006); Nikolaev (2007); Bauwhede (2007): Zhang, 2008; Peek 2010). Therefore, in the U.S., there is evidence to suggest that credit ratings agencies care about conditional conservatism as an accounting practice with the potential to influence default risk. In South Korea, there is evidence of a positive relation between accounting conservatism levels and credit ratings (Park et al., 2011). However, the association between credit rating changes and financial conservatism is a question left unanswered. Our motivation is to address this caveat. To our knowledge, our study is the first to analyze the association between conditional conservatism and credit ratings and credit rating changes using the two most popular conditional conservatism measures. We contribute to the literature by providing an evidence that conditional conservatism may influence a credit rating agency’s perception of default risk. We examine if conditional conservatism is associated with credit ratings based on the following; conditional conservatism is an accounting practice associated with reducing a manager‘s ability to 'inflate' net income; hence, constraining dividend has the potential to reduce a credit rating agency’s perception of risk. Credit rating agencies issue higher credit ratings to firms with lower default risk. Thus, because firms care deeply about maintaining or increasing their credit ratings, conservative reporting should have a positive a relation with credit rating levels / credit ratings changes. We perform numerous tests to establish the relation between conditional conservatism and credit ratings / credit rating changes. We investigate the relationship between a firm's credit ratings / credit ratings changes and conditional conservatism using a KRX firm sample of 1,310 firm-years from 2002 to 2013. First, we establish the levels of conditional conservatism using the accruals based Ball and Shivakumar (2005) and the market based Basu (1997) models. The results suggest that firms borrow equity in the form of public debt are conservative, consistent with previous studies. Next, we use a dummy variable approach to examine the relationship between conservatism and credit ratings for investment / non-investment grade firms. We find that investment and non-investment grade firms have statistically insignificantly different levels of financial conservatism. Thirdly, we test if conditional conservatism has a statistically significant relation with credit rating changes. We find that firms that experience an increase or a decrease in their credit rating levels from period t to t+1 are marginally more conservative compared to firms with consistent credit rating levels. Next, we test the relation between conditional conservatism and credit rating increases. Firms with higher levels of conservatism may benefit from a credit rating increase because an increase in conservatism indicates lower risk. We use a dummy variable approach to capture if conservatism in period t has the potential to influence a credit rating period in t+1. We do not find a statistically significant relation between conservatism and credit ratings for our entire sample. However, we find that there is a positive relation between conservatism in period t and a credit rating increase in period t+1 for investment grade firms. Credit ratings have significant implications for a firm’s access to capital. Firms below the investment grade level (BBB+ and below) are expected to face higher capital costs and face limited access to investor equity because of legislative restrictions compared to firms with investment grade bonds (A- to AAA). Credit ratings agencies may reward financially conservative firms above the investment grade threshold with a credit rating’s increase because conditional conservatism is considered an important risk metric for firms above the investment grade. Other metrics may be more critical to firms below the investment grade cut-off. Finally, we perform robustness checks for our main hypothesis. We find that firms that experience a credit rating increase in period t+1 have statistically significantly higher levels of conservatism in period t compared to firms experience a credit rating decrease or remain constant in period t+1, supporting our previous findings. Taken together, our results suggest that credit ratings agencies consider conditional conservatism when issuing credit ratings. Firms with higher credit ratings are generally more conservative. Moreover, conditionally conservative firms above the investment grade threshold can be rewarded with a credit rating increase.

14

The Conditional Size Premium is Alive and Well

Dong-Hyun Ahn, Byoung-Kyu Min, Bohyun Yoon

한국재무학회 한국재무학회 학술대회 2014년 5개 학회 공동학술연구발표회 2014.05 pp.1200-1245

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9,400원

Recent empirical literature shows that the size e ect, small capitalization stocks have higher returns than large capitalization stocks, has disappeared since the early 1980s. This paper shows that the disappearance of the size premium can be attributed to change in duration of the business cycle. We nd that time variation in the size pre- miums is crucially dependent on the economic state. Size premiums are signi cantly positive mainly at the bottom of the business cycles. During other business cycle stages, the size premiums are indistinguishable from zero. We also nd that this dependency of the size premium on the business cycle is preserved even after the early 1980s wherein there is absence of the size premium. This nding suggests that whereas unconditional size e ect is dead, the size e ect conditional on the state of the macroeconomy is alive and well. Given that the pattern of the size premium conditional on the phase of the business cycle remains strikingly stable before and after the early 1980s, we then ex- amine whether any change in the lengths of phases of the business cycle is the primary cause of the disappearance of the (unconditional) size premium. Our formal statistical analyses reveal that the probability of economy being in recessionary periods has been signi cantly reduced since the early 1980s. Speci cally, the probability of economy staying in recessionary periods after the early 1980s is less than half of that before the early 1980s. Finally, we illustrate the important role of duration of business cycle in explaining the disappearance of the size premium by using the stylized Markovian economy, and provide the economic intuition behind the results.

15

Testing the Conditional CAPM Using Short-Window Regressions : A Critique KCI 등재

Jaewon Choi

한국재무학회 재무연구 제34권 제3호 2021.08 pp.155-170

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4,900원

Using short-window regressions, prior studies have shown that the conditional CAPM performs as poorly as the unconditional CAPM and that unconditional alphas are too large to be explained by the covariance between conditional betas and market risk premium. I examine the extent to which these results are driven by estimation biases in short-window regressions. Even when the true time-varying beta has highly transient components, beta estimates from these short-window regressions can be estimated to highly persistent because of yearly portfolio reformulations that are commonly employed in empirical studies. I show that, under these circumstances, large non-zero alpha estimates from short-window regressions are consistent with the conditional CAPM and the covariance estimates between conditional betas and market risk premium are biased downward and can have large estimation errors.

17

4,600원

This study evaluates whether market-state-conditioned scenarios generated by a Conditional Wasserstein GAN with gradient penalty (cWGAN-GP) can provide portfolio-relevant covariance inputs for minimum-variance optimization. Using 55 sector-balanced S&P 500 stocks with weekly returns from 2011 to 2025, we generate 5,000 forward-looking scenarios conditioned on seven macro-financial variables and convert them into Ledoit-Wolf shrinkage covariance matrices. Historical, raw GAN-derived, and variance-rescaled GAN-derived covariance inputs are compared in long-only minimum-variance portfolios across four event-based regimes: PreCOVID2020, InflationShock2022, HighRate2023, and Recent2025. Variance-rescaled GAN covariance improves realized 13-week return and Sharpe ratio in all four selected regimes. However, GAN-based portfolios become sharply concentrated, with Effective N falling from about 29 under historical covariance to about 4. The results suggest that cWGAN-GP covariance is best interpreted as a regime-dependent allocation signal, not as a standalone calibrated risk model.

18

5,100원

This study investigated one of the contemporary issues in the Korean capital market and two hypotheses of concern were tested on the financial determinants of profitability for the firms belonging to the Korean chaebols during the era of the post-global financial turmoil. The first hypothesis applying conditional quantile regression (CQR) estimation provided the evidence that leverage ratio, fixed asset utilization, and foreign ownership among the nine quantitative explanatory variables, had overall statistical significance relative to the book-valued profitability measure, while additional variables such as a firm's size, fixed and a proxy for the type of exchange market showed their strong impacts on the market-valued profitability indicator. Concerning the formulated 'extended' DuPont system, only two components of EBITDAEBIT and EMULTIPLIER revealed their prominent influence on ROE (Return on Equity) over the two tested periods (the years 2008 and 2012).

19

7,000원

20

6,400원

다양한 헤지펀드 스타일 지수의 2003 년 1 월부터 2016 년 12 월까지 월간자료 분석을 통해, 특정스타일 헤지펀드 (emerging market 및 equity long-short)에서 전월 단기이자율시장 트렌트추종형요인 (PTFSIR)은 직전월 CBOE VIX 지수 변화량 조절변수에 따라 그 조건부 효과가 통계적으로 유의한 효과를 확인하였다. 본 연구는 Emerging Market, Equity Long-Short, Fund of Hedge Funds, Global Macro, Multi-Strategies, 및 commodity trading advisors 등 Barclays 헤지펀드 스타일지수에 대한 Conditional Process Model 과 Factor Risk Model 분석을 결합한 특징을 가진다. 특히, 당월 헤지펀드지수 성과에 영향을 주는 요인으로서 절대적인 영향을 행사하는 당월 시장초과수익률을 제외시키고 직전월의 단기이자율시장 트렌트추종형요인 및 직전월의 주식시장 내재변동성지수의 월간 변화량을 동시에 고려할 수 있는 단순한 형태의 조절효과 (Moderation) 모형을 구성하여, 기존 선형모형 대비 헤지펀드 매니저의 직전월의 시장모멘텀, 직전월 VIX 지수의 월간 변화량 정보의 소화를 통한 위험자산 Exposure 의 Tilting Process 를 추정하였다. 본 연구는 Behavioral Science 에서 널리 활용되는 1 개 또는 그 이상의 조절변수가 존재하는 경우의 Conditional Process Model 과 투자분석에 활용되는 Factor Risk Model 을 결합하여 글로벌 헤지펀드 시계열자료에 적용하는 최초의 시도를 통해 시장위험요인의 다양한 헤지펀드 스타일 지수분석에서 Liquid Alternative Hedge Fund Collection Pool 로 실질적인 분석을 확장하는 Moderation 효과의 변화에 대한 검증을 Manager 의 Factor-Tilting Activity 에 대한 Adaptive Modeling Framework 을 통해 제시한다. 조절된 과거 단기이자율시장 트렌트추종요인의 월간 VIX 변화량 조절효과 분석 결과, 헤지펀드는 그 투자스타일별로 펀드 매니저가 단기이자율 트렌드 요인에 근거한 위험자산 Exposure 조절에서 주식시장 내재변동성 변화량 정보를 Process 하는 정도가 상이하였으며, 이는 스타일별 Factor- Controlled Alpha Decay 와 변동성 매개효과의 관계를 규명함으로써 일부 확인이 가능하였다.

One-month prior return of primitive trend following strategy on the short-term interest rate (PTFSIR)’s a direct effect on the current performance of certain hedge fund investment styles depends quadratically on the size of the returns of one-month prior Chicago Board of Options Exchange implied volatility index (“VIX”) as a moderator. This manuscript advances the quantitative behavioral science literature by applying financial timeseries for estimating and making inferences about the conditional process model with a moderator. Consistent with our view that hedge funds exhibit different levels of skills in exploiting the information contents of equity implied volatilities, we document substantial heterogeneity of processing one-month prior quadratic volatility returns by altering their risky asset exposures across hedge fund investment styles. We subsequently apply the same analytical framework to three different collections of individual liquid alternative hedge funds to test if a primitive trend following strategy on the short-term interest rates’ effect on hedge fund strategy returns is linearly moderated by the volatilities of the returns of one-month prior VIX and the corresponding hedge funds’ dynamic risky asset and factor exposure management implications.

 
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