Earticle

관세인하와 같은 무역자유화는 국내 지역경제의 대외무역의 변화뿐만 아니라 지역간 자원의 재배분과 소득재분배를 초래한다. 그동안 자유무역협정과 같은 무역자유화 조치가 한국경제 전체에 미치는 효과에 대한 분석은 많았지만 이러한 무역자유화조치가 수도권경제를 포함하는 국내 지역경제에 미치는 효과, 특히 지역경제의 생산과 해외무역에 대한 분석은 제한적이었으며 다른 지역경제와의 연계성을 고려하지 않은 채 지역경제자체만을 분석대상으로 하였다. 본 연구에서는 한국은행이 발표한 지역산업연관표를 이용하여 수도권과 비수도권의 경제적 연관관계를 고려한 다지역 일반균형분석을 통하여 관세인하가 수도권과 비수도권 경제의 산업별 수출입과 생산에 미치는 효과를 계산하고 무역자유화가 어떤 지역산업들에 대외 리스크를 유발할 수 있는 지를 분석하였다. 분석결과 관세인하는 수도권과 비수도권 모든 산업의 수출을 감소시키며 수입은 증대시키는 것으로 나타났다. 또한 비수도권경제의 부가가치와 고용, 임금소득 및 자본소득을 증가시킴으로써 수도권과 비수도권의 경제 불균형도 일부 해소하는 것으로 나타났다.

This paper concerns itself with calculating the effect of a tariff reduction on regional economies, Metropolitan and non-Metropolitan areas in Korea. A multi-regional computable general equilibrium model is set up to investigate how the regional functional incomes and resource allocation are affected by trade liberalization, utilizing the regional social accounting matrix based on regional input-output tables and national income accounts published by the Bank of Korea in 2009. The simulation result shows that the tariff reduction reallocates some of labor from Metropolitan to non-Metropolitan area, raising the gross regional domestic product and the labor and capital incomes of the non-Metropolitan region and reducing those of the Metropolitan region, indicating that the trade liberalization favors the non-Metropolitan area.

본 연구에서는 한국의 보험산업에 대하여 생산성을 측정하여 비교하고 시간적 추세를 살펴보았다. 이와 함께 보험산업의 생산성변화에 교육 또는 인적자본의 축적 그리고 무역자유화의 진전이 영향을 미치고 있는지를 파악해 보고자 하였다. 실증결과 1. 생명보험산업의 상대적 효율성이 손해보험산업의 상대적 효율성보다 훨씬 높게 나타났고 2. 우리나라 보험산업의 효율성은 생명보험산업에서는 상승되는 추세를 보여 왔으나 손해보험산업에서는 하락추세를 보여 왔으며 3. 생명보험산업에서는 규모의 효율성이 거의 같은 수준으로 유지되고 있으나 손해보험산업에서는 규모의 효율성이 증대되었고 4. 생명보험산업은 1990년대에는 규모에 대한 수익증가를 보이다가 2000년대에는 규모에 대한 수익감소 또는 불변을 보여주었고 손해보험산업에서는 1990년대나 2000년대 모두 규모에 대한 수익증가를 보여주었고 5. 보험산업의 생산성의 변화는 교육에 크게 영향 받아 왔고, 무역자유화의 진전에도 어느 정도 영향을 받아왔다는 점 등이 밝혀졌다.

By using data envelopment analysis(DEA) this research measures the efficiency of Korean insurance industry and the effects of education and trade liberalization on the productivity changes from 1990 to 2010. Under the assumption of CRS(constant returns to scale) and VRS(various returns to scale), the relative efficiency levels of life and non-life insurance industry are measured and the effects of education and trade liberalization on the productivity changes are examined during these years. Important finding facts are as follows. 1) Relative efficiency levels of life insurance industry are much higher than those of non-life insurance industry. 2) Korean life insurance industry has experienced increasing trends of relative productivity levels, but Korean non-life insurance industry has shown decreasing trends of relative productivity levels. 3) Korean life insurance industry has maintained the efficiency of scale, but Korean non-life insurance industry has shown increasing trends of the efficiency of scale. 4) Korean life insurance industry has shown IRS in 1990s and DRS or CRS in 2000s, but Korean non-life insurance industry has shown IRS in all periods. 5) The efficiency of Korean insurance industry has received very large impacts from human capital accumulation of education. 6) The efficiency of Korean insurance industry has received considerable impacts from trade liberalization.

본 논문에서는 2019년 11월 4일 태국 방콕에서 15개 국가 정상들이 합의한 역내포괄 적동반자경제협정(RCEP)이 출범하는 경우, 세계 경제에 미칠 것으로 예상되는 영향을 연산가능일반균형(CGE)모형을 이용하여 분석하였다. 자료는 2019년 9월에 출시된 GTAP DB Version 10을 활용하였다. 본 연구의 목적에 맞추어 GTAP DB Version 10에 포 함된 총 141 지역(국가)를 22개 지역(국가)로 통합하였으며, 65개 산업을 15개 산업으로 통합하였다. RCEP에 관한 정책시나리오에서 인도의 참여 여부와 무역자유화 (관세인 하) 수준에 따라 4개 시나리오를 설정하였다. RCEP의 경제적 영향을 22개국의 수입물 량, 수출물량, 교역조건, 무역수지, 경제성장(실질GDP) 및 후생수준에 미치는 영향으로 나누어 살펴보았다. RCEP이 출범하면 RCEP의 회원국 경제는 실질GDP와 후생수준이 증가할 것으로 분석되었으며, RCEP이 참가하지 않는 국가는 실질GDP와 후생수준이 감 소할 것으로 전망되었다.

This paper aims at conducting a quantitative assessment of the potential economic effects of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) on the global economy using a global multi-sector computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. The RCEP is a proposed FTA in the Asia-Pacific region between the ten member states of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and their five FTA partners (Australia, China, Japan, New Zealand, and Korea). India, ASEAN's sixth FTA partner, opted out of the agreement in 2019. Depending on the participation of India and the level of trade liberalization in terms of tariff reduction, four policy scenarios on the RCEP are conducted. GTAP database version 10 released in September 2019 is used for this study, the base year of which is 2014. The potential economic effects of the 4 scenarios are represented in terms of export and import volumes, terms of trade, trade balance, real GDP, and equivalent variation (EV) for welfare. Most of the participating countries of the RCEP are expected to gain an additional economic growth in terms of real GDP and welfare in terms of EV from the RCEP, while all the non-participating countries of the RCEP except the Rest of the World (ROW) are expected to experience an additional loss of economic growth and welfare.

본 연구는 무역자유화가 특정 기간 동안 일시적일뿐 아니라 누적적으로 경제성장에 영향을 미친다는 가정 하에 무역자유화가 제조업 생산성에 미치는 영향을 분석하였다. 이를 위하여, 무역자유화의 대리변수로서 관세율 인하가 제조업의 생산성에 미치는 효과를 정태적 및 누적적 효과로 구분해서 살펴보았다. 특히, 본 연구에서는 인도네시아가 한국의 가장 중요한 무역 대상 국들 중 하나로 부각됨에 따라 분석 대상 국가로 선정하였다. 인도네시아의 39개 산업에 대한 분석결과에 따르면 관세율 인하가 인도네시아의 제조업 생산성 전반을 촉진하는 것으로 나타났 다. 더불어, 관세율 인하의 생산성 제고효과를 정태적 및 누적적 효과로 구분해서 분석한 결과, 두 가지 효과 모두 통계적으로 유의한 것으로 나타났다. 구체적으로 관세율 1% 인하는 제조업 의 부가가치를 0.22% 증가시켰고, 제조업의 생산성을 단기적으로 0.22%, 그리고 장기적으로 0.29% 높이는 것으로 나타났다. 즉, 관세율 인하가 제조업 생산성에 미치는 누적적 효과가 정태 적 효과보다 더 큰 것으로 나타났으며, 이와 같은 분석결과는 관세율 인하에 따른 제조업의 생 산성 상승효과가 일시적인 것이 아니라 특정 기간 동안 지속된다는 것을 보여준다.

This study analyzes the effects of trade liberalization on economic growth under the assumption that the effects occur both instantly and persistently for a certain period of time. Therefore, this study differentiates between the static and cumulative effects of tariff reductions. In particular, it examines the effects of tariff reductions on the manufacturing sector using industrial level data for 39 sub-industries in Indonesia. Also, Indonesia is chosen for this study because Indonesia has become one of the most important trading partners for Korea. The empirical results show that tariff reductions do not only affect manufacturing sector production for a single year, but they also persistently affect production for the next three years. That is, a 1% tariff reduction increases the manufacturing sector value-added by 0.22%. In addition, the static and cumulative effects of a 1% tariff reduction on manufacturing sector productivity are 0.22% and 0.29%, respectively. The estimated results indicate that the effects of a tariff reduction do not disappear immediately; rather, they continuously influence the economy for a certain period of time.

본논문은한국서비스무역제한을개선할경우새만금및전북지역에미치는파급효과를추정한 다. OECD의서비스무역제한지수와서비스무역자료를연계하여서비스규제개혁이서비스수출 에미치는영향을서비스무역정책및서비스업종별로추정한다.새만금을글로벌서비스자유무역 중심지로개발하기위해금융등5대서비스업종에서전북지역경제에대한파급효과를지역산업 연관분석을통해추정한다. 2014~2017년사이의패널자료로실증분석한결과,국내서비스무 역규제제한을경쟁장벽을중심으로7.6%p낮춰OECD회원국평균이상으로자유화할경우, 전북의금융,통신,전문과학기술,컴퓨터,운송서비스의수출은2019~23년사이5년간522억원증가하는가운데생산유발,부가가치유발,일자리유발은각각963억원, 406억원, 992개 로추정된다. 최대수출증가액은전북GRDP의39%수준인1조7,900억원으로추정된다.

This paper aims to estimate the spillover effect on Saemangeum and Jeonbuk area when service trade restrictions are liberalized to increase international competitiveness of Korea's service trade. By linking the OECD's Service Trade Restrictiveness Index (STRI)with service trade data, the impact of reforming service regulations for restrictive free trade on service exports is estimated by service trade policies and sectors. In order to develop the Saemangeum as a global free trade-in-services center, financial services, telecommunication services, professional, scientific and technical services, computer services, and transportation services are chosen to be primarily examined. The spillover effect on Jeonbuk economy is analyzed using the regional input-output table. Using panel data from 2014 to 2017, empirical estimation shows that when Korean service trade restrictions are lowered by 7.6%p centered on barriers to competition, and liberalized above the average of OECD countries, exports of financial services, telecommunication services, professional, scientific and technical services, computer services, and transportation services of Jeonbuk increases by total￦52.2 billion over the five years between 2019 and 2023. And￦96.3 billion induced-production, ￦40.6 billion induced-value being added, and 992 job creations are estimated. Furthermore, if services regulations of Korea are to be liberalized fully on Saemangeum, the maximumexports increase is estimated at ￦1.77 trillion, 39%of GRDP of Jeollabuk-do.

한국경제에서 서비스산업의 비중이 꾸준히 증가하고 있음에도 불구 하고, 한국 서비스산 업의 생산성은 제조업에 비해서 상당히 낮은 수준에 있고, 더욱이 우 리나라 서비스산업의 생산성은 주요 OECD국가들에 비해서 크게 낮은 수준에 머물고 있는 실정이다. 이러한 상황에서 향후 DDA 양허안과 한·미 자유무역협정 및 한·EU 자유무역 협정이 체결 및 비준되어 효력이 발생하면, 서비스무역의 자유화는 보다 진전될 것으 로 예상되고 있다. 본 연구에서는 이러한 서비스무역의 자유화 추세에 맞추어, 한국 서 비스산업이 글로벌 경 쟁력을 확보해 나가기 위해서 필요로 하고 있는 정책적 함의를 도출 해 보고자 한다.

In the Korean economy, the productivity levels of services is relatively low compare to that of manufacturing even though the share of services in GDP is continuously increasing. Moreover, the productivity levels in services in Korea is very low compare to that in more advanced OECD economies. However, liberalization of services trade in Korea will be further strengthened by coming Doha agenda, FTA between Korea and EU as well as FDI between Korea and USA, and other liberalizing measures. This paper suggests some policy implications in order to strengthen the global competitiveness of the Korean services industry in the coming global era.

Service trade has now become a new driving force for economic development around the world, in which financial services trade has achieved rapid growth, and improving the competitiveness of financial services trade has also become a concern of all countries. China’s immature market and the restriction make the development of financial services trade slow all the time. Its competitiveness is far from that of developed countries and needs to be improved. Financial services trade won’t develop well without financial liberalization. Therefore, this thesis studies the impact of financial liberalization on the competitiveness of financial services trade through literature review and empirical analysis. Firstly, this thesis sums up the detailed process of China's financial liberalization from four aspects: capital account, banking, insurance and securities, and uses indicators to measure and compare the reality of China's financial liberalization with that of major countries in the world. Then, this thesis analyses the current situation of China's financial services trade and its industry structure, and uses different indicators to measure the competitiveness of China's financial services trade and compares it with that of other countries. Finally, according to the reality analysis and empirical results, this thesis puts forward corresponding suggestions for the government and enterprises. By analyzing the reality of China's financial liberalization and financial services trade, this thesis finds that although the degree of China's financial liberalization is gradually growing up, it is still relatively backward compared with developed countries. In addition, China's financial services trade has not only long-term deficit but also structural imbalance, and the imports and exports of insurance account for a large proportion of that of financial services trade. Computing the indicators of China’s financial services trade, such as market share, revealed comparative advantage index and trade competitiveness index, and comparing them with those of other countries, it shows that China has low financial services trade competitiveness. According to the study, this thesis suggests that the government should actively and steadily promote financial liberalization, while increasing the support for financial services trade and creating a good market environment; enterprises should persevere in the innovation of financial services, seize opportunities and dare to “go out”.

본 연구는 시장경제국과 비시장경제국간의 무역자유화의 경제적 효과를 분석한다. 기본적으로 비시장경제와의 무역을 통해 공정한 경제적 효과를 기대하기 어렵다는 사실을 확인했다. 이는 근본적으로 시장경제국의 민영기업이 비시장경제국으로의 시장진입은 용이하지 않기 때문이라는 사실에서 비롯된다. 따라서 본 분석에서는 종전에 관찰되던 무역자유화의 효과가 비시장경제국간의 교역에서는 관찰되기 어렵다는 사실을 제시한다. 특히 비시장경제국의 중간재 생산단계의 내부화 정도가 클수록 양국간 교역질서는 더욱 악화됨을 보인다. 첫 번째 모형 즉 비시장경제가 수직통합적인 생산체제를 갖추지 않은 경우에 무역자유화는 양국의 교역량 증가에는 기여하나 양국 기업의 생산자잉여 및 양국 사회후생에는 긍정적으로 작용하지 않음을 보였다. 두 번째 모형에서는 비시장경제가 수직통합된 국유기업을 보유하는데 이 때 무역자유화는 양국의 전체 생산량 및 교역규모를 오히려 감소시킬 수 있음을 확인했다. 비시장경제가 수직통합적인 생산체제를 갖춘 경우에는 그 기업의 중간재 생산 비효율성이 상당히 높은 경우에만 그 국가로의 시장진입이 가능해진다. 또한 비시장경제의 국영기업이 수직통합된 경우 무역자유화로 인해 시장경제국의 사회후생은 증대되지만 비시장경제국의 사회전체적인 후생은 감소함으로써 무역을 통한 공동의 이익실현이 어렵다.

After the launch of WTO, many countries that have actively participated in a trade liberalization have obtained the gains from trade and the social welfare improvement. South Korea that is one of the leading economies to seek to liberalize its trade with many countries have enjoyed sustained economic growth. South Korea’s most recent efforts of liberalizing trade were to make a free trade agreement with Vietnam and one with China, respectively. But we may have overlooked the characteristic of those countries; they are categorized into non-market economy, which implies that liberalizing trade with those countries will not result in the outcomes that we expect. For example, US, EU, and WTO have applied a different rule on those economies in anti-dumping process, according to the non-market economy treatment; the non-market economy is a country that does not operate on market principles of cost or pricing structure, so sales of good in such country do not reflect the fair value of the good. Oil industry is a clear example of how a pricing regime of a non-market economy is obviously different to one of a market economy. In South Korea, prices of oil products are determined by the private firms while in China, domestic fuel price is controlled by a governmental committee. As well, according to the annual Fortune 500 list, most of the Chinese 110 firms that operate in the petroleum, finance, automobile, electricity and natural resource sectors are state-owned. Then after a trade liberalization occurs, private firms from the market economy should compete with state-owned firms from the non-market economy. Generally, the private firms produce the profit-maximizing quantity while the state-owned firms produce the welfare-maximizing quantity. The quantity produced by the state-owned firms from the non-market economy must be much greater than the quantity by the private firms from the market economy, lowering the market price and reducing the profit margin of the private firm. In this context, the state-owned firms can take more advantage relative to the private firm in the market. As well, such a competition will obstruct the efficient resource allocation in both countries since it allows inefficient state-owned firms to produce more. To describe and analyze this situation, we apply two-stage game theoretical model. We assume that a private firm from a market economy and a state-owned firm from a non-market economy compete in the final good market in both countries. Each government in each country sets a specific tariff on the imported good. After a trade liberalization, there are not any tariff on the good. In the first model without a vertically integrated firm, both firms procure the intermediate good from an external region. In the second model, the private firm still purchases the intermediate good from the external region but the state-owned firm produces the intermediate good by itself. The sequence of the game is as follows: in the first stage of the game, each government chooses an optimal tariff, after observing the tariff, in the second stage of the game, an intermediate firm sets an intermediate good price, and then, in the third stage of the game, a private firm chooses a profit-maximizing quantity and a state-owned firm chooses a social-welfare maximizing quantity. From the analysis of the mixed duopoly model, we obtain the results. The first result shows that the trade liberalization does not lead to an expansion of the trade volume since the state own firm in the non-market economy produces a social-welfare maximizing quantity, which substantially impedes market access by the private firm into the non-market economy. Besides, the trade liberalization does not guarantee the social welfare improvement of both countries. From the analysis, we obtain three major policy implications. First, we should not participate in the trade liberalization with the non-market economy that may distort international trade rules and decrease the social welfare. Second, we should not overlook the characteristic of the non-market economy when making a trade deal with those countries. Third, in case of negotiating tariff level for the trade liberalization with non-market economy, the solution to the negotiation is to set a tariff concession rate for goods produced by state-owned firms to be ratcheted down as long as the state-owned firms in the non-market economy are privatized.

근래 환경상품의 무역자유화가 새로운 통상의제로 주목받고 있는 이유는 이들 상품에 대한 관세 및 비관세 무역장벽을 제거하여 시장접근을 개선함으로써 무역 이익을 확대할 수 있을 뿐만 아니라 환경보호 및 개도국 경제개발에도 기여할 수 있는 등 이른바 ‘일석삼조의 효과’를 거둘 수 있는 것으로 인식되고 있기 때문이다. 이에 따라 WTO는 지난 2001년 DDA를 통해 환경상품의 무역자유화 문제를 ‘환경 -무역 연계’ 분야에 있어서 주요 협상의제로 채택하였다. 그러나 이후 환경상품의 정의 및 범위의 설정, 무역자유화의 대상이 되는 환경상품의 개별적인 선정 등에 있어서 회원국･회원국그룹 간 이해관계의 대립 등으로 인해 WTO 내에서의 논의 및 협상은 다소 지지부진한 상태였으며, OECD나 APEC 등을 통해 주로 개별적인 환경상품의 리스트를 개발･작성하는 작업이 진행되어 왔다. 그런데 최근 APEC, ‘다보스 공동선언’ 등을 통해 무역자유화의 대상이 되는 환경상품이 구체적으로 선 정되고 있고, 비록 비구속적인 합의이긴 하지만 이에 관한 실질적인 관세감축 합의 가 이루어지고 있을 뿐만 아니라, 무역자유화 의무의 수립을 위한 복수국 간 협정 체결에 관한 국제사회의 움직임도 구체화 되면서 우리나라도 이에 대한 면밀한 검 토와 대비가 필요한 시점이라고 할 수 있다. 그런데 환경상품의 무역자유화에 관한 문제는 단순히 무역이익의 확대만을 목표로 하고 있을 뿐만 아니라 환경과 개발 이익도 동시에 추구하는, 소위 “win-win-win” 정책목적 달성을 궁극적인 목표로 하고 있어 그만큼 관련 논의가 복잡하고 합의가 어려운 측면이 있다. 지금까지 WTO 논의과정에서, 특히 개도국들이 환경상품의 무 역자유화가 주로 몇몇 선진국 중심의 무역이익 확대에만 초점을 맞추어 논의되고 추진되고 있다고 주장하며 불신의 눈초리를 보내고 있다는 사실은 이를 잘 방증하 는 것이기도 하다. 그러므로 환경상품의 무역자유화에 관한 문제는 해당 상품의 시 장개방에 따른 무역이익의 확대뿐만 아니라, 환경･개발 목적의 균형있는 달성이라고 하는 “win-win-win” 정책목적이 적극 고려될 필요가 있다고 할 것이다. 이러한 인식으로 바탕으로, 본 논문은 그동안 WTO 내･외에서 환경상품의 무역자 유화에 관하여 논의･제시되어 온 주요 제안 내용을 고찰 및 재검토 하고, 이를 통해 향후 환경상품의 무역자유화 협상에 있어서 무역-환경-개발의 “win-win-win” 정책 목적의 균형있는 달성을 위하여 고려되어야 할 것으로 생각되는 몇 가지 규범적 요 소를 간략히 정리･제시하였다. 이러한 논의를 통하여 환경상품의 무역자유화가 무역 -환경-개발 이익의 조화를 위한 규범적 수단으로서의 기능과 역할을 충실히 수행할 수 있는 협상 방안이 마련될 수 있기를 기대한다.

The reason that the trade liberalization of environmental goods is becoming a new trade issue is that the elimination of tariff and non-tariff trade barriers on these goods can not only increase trade profits but also contribute to the interests of environment and development. Accordingly, the WTO adopted the trade liberalization of environmental goods as a main agenda of the “trade-environment linkage” issues since DDA in 2001. However, the WTO has shown slow progress in defining and selecting environmental goods and their boundaries due to clashes of differences in member countries’ interests while discussions in the OECD or APEC have been headed towards developing and formulating individual lists of environmental goods. More recently, the APEC and ‘Davos Joint Statement’ listed the environmental goods that are subjected to substantial reduction of tariff. As the discussions and negotiations on the trade liberalization of environmental goods become more detailed, it is expected that some specific obligations such as tariff reduction will be established in the near future, resulting in the necessity of Korea to prepare for the issue. The discussions and negotiations on the issue is difficult as well as intricate because the ultimate objective of trade liberalization of environmental goods is accomplishing the so-called “win-win-win” policy goal, calling for a balance among trade, environmental and developmental interests. Nevertheless, the discussions held by the WTO until now have allegedly been focused on the trade or economic profits for some developed countries, provoking the developing countries’ resistance. Therefore, the author claims there is a necessity to consider which factors should be more reflected in future discussions and negotiations in order to secure a balance among trade, environmental, and developmental interests. Based on this knowledge, this paper reexamined the details of negotiations suggested and discussed concerning the trade liberalization of environmental goods within and outside of the WTO, followed by the presentation of a few normative factors that should be more considered to obtain the balanced “win-win-win” policy goal of trade, environment, and development.

This study investigates the effects of governance and trade liberalization on economic growth in ASEAN member countries from 2012 to 2022. The inception of the Free Trade Agreement within the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) in 1984 led to a proliferation of liberalization among member countries. To ensure the robustness of the results, various analytical methods are employed. Using ordinary least squares regression, fixed effect regression, two-way fixed effect regression, and quantile regression, we find that governance and trade openness have positive effects on economic development. Efficient governments amplify the positive impact on economic growth.

This study examines whether the length of the implementation periods of regional trade agreement (RTA) in relation to trade liberalization schedules and the level of development of member countries affect members' trade. The analysis finds that RTAs formed by partner countries with a similar level of economic development lead to increased trade among members than among North-South RTAs during a shorter transition period of trade and tariff liberalization, regardless of the degree of integration being shallow or deep. The average long-term effects of RTAs formed by developing countries on members' trade diminish 15 years after their implementation. In distinguishing trade direction from developed to developing countries and vice versa, we noted that direction-specific South-North RTAs appear to take less time to see larger increases in Southern exports to the Northern members than direction-specific North-South RTAs do.

This paper provides a quantitative assessment of the tariff changes implementedby the Philippines in 2005. It evaluates the impacts of these changes on themacroeconomy and on major industries and regions of the country. It alsoexamines the impact of alternative tariff policies that the government could haveconsidered over the period. Using TARFCOM, a computable general equilibriummodel developed for the Philippines, we demonstrate the tradeoff between outputgrowth and tariff revenues in trade liberalization. Changes in tariff rates couldhave a significant effect on the financial position of the government. In light ofgovernment dependence on tariff revenues, the success of tariff reform iscontingent upon development of alternative revenue sources and the institutionalmechanisms for effective tax administration. JEL classification: F14, F15, F17

The study performs an empirical test to assess the impact of the Pakistan-China Free trade agreement (FTA) on Pakistan, China, and the World's exports under homogenous and differentiated products. This study employs the modeling with Poisson specification with Poisson Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood method for the estimations. The results of empirical test show that the effect of FTA on the FTA and Non-FTA countries is greater in the differentiated product as compared to the homogenous product. Therefore, one of the most important policy implications provided by this study is that export enterprises need to concentrate on differentiated products as compare to the homogenous products after the implementation of the Pakistan-China FTA. Moreover, the previous literature concluded that Pakistan-China FTA was more beneficial for China as compared to Pakistan. However, according to this study, if Pakistani enterprises focus more on differentiated products as compared to homogenous products, then it will be equally beneficial for both Chinese and Pakistani enterprises. This study will contribute to the literature by considering the Bertrand competition between asymmetric countries and find out the effect of the FTA on these three countries. It considers China, Pakistan, and the Rest of the World as first, second, and third countries.

Recent trends in inequality have raised concerns among researchers and policymakers globally. The role of globalization, one of the leading forces driving this trend, continues to be intensely debated in academic and policy circles. Invoking standard trade theory, this paper analyses whether and the extent to which trade liberalization has contributed to the recent trends in inequality. The approach and findings of the paper are novel: previous studies of trade liberalization’s impact on inequality do not explicitly control the direction of trade. The empirical results show that trade liberalization is associated with decreasing income inequality overall, but contingent on the direction of trade, it has opposing effects: North?North and South?South trade are inequality-reducing while North?South trade is inequality-increasing. Simply put, liberalizing trade between countries of similar developmental levels does not raise inequality. This paper affirms, using recent data, that trade with developing countries raises inequality in developed countries. Additionally, it finds that North?South trade (particularly imports from high-income to low-income countries) may also raise inequality in developing countries, contrary to Heckscher?Ohlin?Stolper?Samuelson model predictions. Skill-biased technical change, a consequence of trade liberalization between North and South, is the main mechanism driving inequality increases in developing countries.

Reciprocal trade agreements (RTAs) have proliferated rapidly in Asia in recent years, an unprecedented phenomenon in a region in which state-led institution-building efforts were largely unsuccessful during the Cold War years. In this article, we investigate the qualitative provisions of RTAs in Asia, focusing on agreements that are professedly geared toward trade liberalization through reciprocal exchanges of trade concessions. We build on the concept of credible commitment? that states “tie their hands” through international agreements and thus signal strong commitment to trade liberalization. We argue that a broad range of agreement provisions will affect an RTA's ability to achieve its primary objective: trade liberalization. We present a coding scheme that measures the strength of a wide variety of provisions in the legal texts of RTAs. Using quantitative analysis, we analyze the impact of various components of Asia's RTAs on participants' trade flows.

This study explores the varieties of East Asian developmentalist trade policy by analyzing Thailand’s and South Korea’s pursuit of free trade agreements (FTAs). Thailand and South Korea offer a nice laboratory to test a ‘neoliberal vs. developmental’ perspective. After Prime Minister Thaksin took office in 2001, Thailand became a pacesetter in East Asia’s pursuit of FTAs with its policy nexus of developmentalism and liberalism. However, the lack of institutionalization of trade policy-making process soon led Thaksin’s CEO-style leadership and pro-business policy bias to cronyism and corruption. In contrast to Thailand’s abrupt move from developmental liberalism to sectoral cronyism, South Korea has successfully institutionalized its transition from developmental mercantilism to developmental liberalism by strengthening the key trade agency?i.e., the Office of the Minister for Trade, which successfully embedded its industrial policy goals in liberal trade initiatives.