Earticle

2022년 우리나라 무역수지가 478억달러로 심각한 적자를 기록하였다. 우리나라 무역수지 적자 에 영향을 미치는 요인으로 우리나라 실질GDP, 세계수입증가율, 수출입 단가, 환율, 교역조건 등이 있다. 2013년부터 2023년까지우리나라 실질GDP 증가율과 우리나라 수입증가율의 관계, 세계수입증가율과 우리나라 수출증가율의 관계, 수출입 단가 및 환율, 교역조건과 무역수지와 의 관계를 분석하며 최근 우리나라 무역수지 적자에 영향을 미친 요인들을 살펴보았다. 분석 결과 수입단가, 환율, 교역조건이 무역수지와 강한 음(-)의 상관관계를 보였다. 본 논문의 분석 결과 우리나라 무역수지 적자에 영향을 미친 요인은 수출입 가격의 변화에 따른 환율 및 교역 조건인 것으로 보인다. 각 요인간의 영향 분석을 위해 향후 연구에서는 보다 정밀한 추가 분석 이 필요할 것이다.

Purpose : This study is conducting an analysis of factors affecting Korea's trade deficit. Research design, data, methodology : The relationship between the trade balance and the factors affecting the trade balance is examined by analyzing the factors affecting the trade balance shown in previous studies and data related to the trade balance. Results : As a result of the analysis, the relationship between Korea's GDP growth rate and imports, and the relationship between world import growth rate and Korea's exports showed a weak correlation, which was not significant. However, the relationship between import and export unit price, exchange rate, trade terms and trade balance showed a strong correlation. Exchange rates and trade terms showed a strong positive (+) correlation with the trade balance, and import unit price and trade balance showed a strong negative (-) correlation. Conclusions : As a result of the analysis of this paper, it seems that the factors that influenced Korea's trade deficit are the exchange rates and terms of trade due to changes in import and export prices. However, a more precise and additional analysis will be needed.

본 연구의 목적은 ICT 산업의 수출중량과 수입중량, 수출금액, 수입금액, 무역수지와의 관계를 분석하는 것이고 관세청 무역통계에서 자료를 수집하였다. 분석기간은 2000년부터 2018년까지 총 19년간 연간자료를 사 용하였다. 변동률 분석은 무역수지, 수출금액, 수입금액, 수입중량, 수출중량 순으로 크게 나타났으며 상승률 분석 은 무역수지가 919%로 가장 높게 나타났다. 상관분석에서 무역수지는 수출액(0.95)과 가장 높은 상관계수를 보여 주었다. 회귀분석결과 종속변수인 무역수지에 대해 수출액은 Coefficient 2.37로 양(+)의 방향으로 나타났고 각 변수들은 상호 독립적으로 변동하고 있다. 지난 2000년 이후 한국 ICT 산업의 무역수지가 한국 총 무역수지의 84%를 주도해 왔다. 향후 한국 수출과 경제발전을 위해 한국 ICT 산업을 더욱 발전시켜야 하고 무역수지 증가를 위해 수출액을 더욱 증가시켜야 할 것이다. 다음 논문에서는 ICT 산업을 세분화하여 구체적으로 발전 가능한 분야 를 찾아보아야 한다.

The purpose of this study is to analyze the relationship between export weight, import weight, export amount, import amount, and trade balance of ICT industry. The data used were gathered from the Korea Customs Service trade statistics. The analysis period used annual data for 19 years from 2000 to 2018. The change rate analysis was shown in order of trade balance, export amount, import amount, import weight and export weight. The increase rate analysis showed that the trade balance was the highest at 919%.. In the correlation analysis, the trade balance and export amount were 0.95, showing the highest correlation coefficient. As a result of the regression analysis, the export amount for the trade balance, the dependent variable, was Coefficient 2.37, which was positive(+). Each variable is changing independently of one another. Since 2000, the trade balance of the Korean ICT industry has led 84% of Korea's total trade balance. In the future, Korea's ICT industry should be further developed for Korea's economic development, and exports should be further increased to increase the trade balance. In the next paper, we will try to find a field that can be specifically developed by subdividing the ICT industry.

본 연구에서는 1981년 1월부터 2016년 2월까지의 422개월간 시계열 자료를 바탕으로 한국과 일본에서의 무역수지와 주식수익률 상호간의 영향력을 벡터오차수정모형(VECM) 및 다변량 GARCH BEKK모형을 사용하여 분석하였다. 우선 한국의 무역수지증가율과 주식수익률, 그리고 일본의 무역수지증가율과 주식수익률 등 4가지 시계열변수들에 대한 Granger 인과관계 분석결과는 한국의 무역수지증가율과 주식수익률이 상호 영향을 미치고 한국의 주가가 일본의 주가에, 일본의 주가가 일본의 무역수지에, 그리고 일본의 무역수지가 한국의 무역수지에 영향을 미치는 것으로 확인되었다. 4변수 상호간의 공적분 검정에서는 모두 1% 유의수준에서 공적분이 존재하는 것으로 나타남으로써 VECM과 다변량 GARCH BEKK 모형을 통한 분석을 행하였다. VECM 회귀분석에서는 한국의 주가와 일본의 주가 상호간에, 그리고 한국의 주가와 무역수지 상호간에 영향력이 확인되었고 10시차까지의 분산분해 분석에서는 한국 주가와 일본 주가가 상호 영향을 미치고 한국의 무역수지는 일본의 무역수지에 영향을 미치고 있음이 나타났다. 다변량 GARCH BEKK의 대칭모형을 통해서는 한국의 무역수지 변화충격이 일본의 무역수지 및 한국과 일본의 주가에 영향을 미치고 일본의 무역수지 변화충격도 한국 및 일본의 주가에 영향을 미치며 한국의 주가충격은 일본의 주가에 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났다. GARCH BEKK 비대칭모형을 통한 하락충격의 효과는 한국의 무역수지 감소충격이 일본의 무역수지와 주가에 전달되고 일본 주가의 하락충격이 한국의 주가와 무역수지, 그리고 일본의 무역수지에 전달되는 것으로 나타났다. 종합적으로 한국의 주가는 한국의 무역수지 변화로부터 영향을 가장 많이 받고 있으며 한국과 일본의 주가는 상호간에 영향을 미치는 것으로 확인되었다.

In this study, mutual spillovers effect among trade balances and stock returns of Korea and Japan are examined from the beginning of 1981 to the February, 2013, using VECM(vector error correction model) and multivariate GARCH BEKK model framework. Major findings are as follows. Primarily, Granger causality test shows that there are mutual interactive impacts between Korean trade balance change rate and Korean stock return and Korean stock return affects Japanese stock return and Japanese stock return affects Japanese trade balance and Japanese trade balance affects Korean trade balance. Secondly, in the VECM(vector error correction model) analysis differences of Korean stock return affect differences of Japanese stock return and vice versa, and differences of Korean trade balance change rate affect differences of Korean stock return and vice versa. Thirdly, in the estimation results of multivariate GARCH(generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity) BEKK(Baba-Engle-Kraft-Kroner) symmetric model, the shock from Korean trade balance affects positively Japanese trade balance as well as both Korean and Japanese stock returns and also the shock from Japanese trade balance affects positively both Korean and Japanese stock returns. The shock from Korean stock return is shown to affect positively Japanese stock return. In the results of asymmetric forms of above multivariate GARCH BEKK model, the positive shock spillovers from the unexpected sudden decline of Korean trade balance to Japanese trade balance and stock return and positive shock spillovers from the unexpected sudden decline of Japanese stock return to Korean stock return and trade balance as well as to Japanese trade balance are shown to significantly exist. Conclusively, it is confirmed that Korean stock return are quite much affected by the change of Korean trade balance and both Korean and Japanese stock returns affect each other.

본 연구에서는 1997년 10월부터 2017년 2월까지의 233개월간 시계열 자료를 사용하여 한국과 러시아에서의 주식수익률과 무역수지변화율 상호간의 수익률 및 변동성의 영향력을 분석하였다. 벡터오차수정모형(VECM)을 통한 분석에서는 한국의 주식수익률은 자신의 영향력 이외에 러시아 주식수익률에 가장 큰 영향을 받고 이후 러시아 무역수지변화율에 유의미한 영향을 받는 것으로 나타났고 한국의 무역수지변화율 또한 자신을 제외할 경우 러시아 무역수지변화율과 러시아 주식수익률에 영향을 받고 있는 것으로 나타났다. 반대로 러시아 주식수익률은 한국의 주식수익률에 영향을 받고 있기는 하나 러시아 무역수지변화율은 한국의 변수들에 의해 영향을 받지 않는 것으로 분석되었다. 이 같은 결과는 Granger 인과관계를 통해서도 유사하게 확인되었는데 한국의 실물시장 및 자본시장은 러시아의 실물시장과 자본시장을 외생적인 영향요인으로 받아들이고 있으나 러시아의 경우는 자본시장에서만 한국의 자본시장을 외생적 영향요인으로 받아들이고 있다는 사실을 반증한다. 수익률간 영향력과는 별도로 다변량 GARCH BEKK 모형을 통한 수익률 변동성에 의한 충격전이 분석에서는 우선 대칭모형에서 자신들의 영향력을 제외할 경우 한국 주가와 러시아 주가 상호간에 강한 충격전이가 행해지고 한국 무역수지의 변동성 충격이 러시아 주가에 유의미하게 전달되는 것으로 나타났다. 비대칭모형에서는 한국과 러시아에서의 무역수지 감소충격이 러시아 무역수지로만 전달될 뿐 나머지 하락충격들은 서로 상쇄되는 것으로 나타났다. 종합적으로 한국과 러시아의 주식시장은 수익률과 변동성 모두에서 서로 상대방 시장에 유의미한 영향력을 미치고 있으나 상호간 실물시장의 영향력은 수익률과 변동성을 별도 기준으로 할 때 서로 교차하는 것으로 나타났다.

In this paper, mutual impacts of trade balance and stock market return between Korea and Russia are examined through the use of VECM(vector error correction model) and multivariate GARCH(generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity) BEKK model framework with the monthly sample dataset from October, 1997 to February, 2017. Major findings from these two model estimation results are as follows. Primarily, the impacts from the Russian stock return and trade balance change to the Korean stock market and trade balance are shown to exist significantly positive, whereas those from the Korean market to the Russian are shown to exist only partially in the stock market in the VECM estimation. More specifically speaking, both Korean stock market and trade balance are affected by both of Russian stock market and trade balance significantly, whereas only Russian stock market is affected significantly by Korean stock market only. Russian trade balance is not shown to be affected by any other market. Secondly, volatility spillovers between Korean and Russian stock market qre shown to exist significantly positive, whereas those between trade balance are shown to exist only restrictively in the multivariate GARCH BEKK model estimation results. More specifically, in the symmetric model estimation of multivariate GARCH, spillovers from Korean trade balance to Russian stock market as well as those between Korean and Russian stock market are shown to exist significantly positive. In the asymmetric model estimation, down shock spillover is shown to exist only from Korean to Russian trade balance.

본 연구에서는 1996년 초부터 2017년 말까지의 264개 월별 데이터를 기준으로 24개 OECD 회원국들을 대상으로 GARCH 모형을 사용하여 실물시장의 대표적 지표인 대외교역(무역수지)과 국별 주가지수로 대표되는 자본시장 간의 상호 전이효과를 분석하였다. 우선 GARCH 모형상의 수익률 전이를 측정한 평균방정식 상의 결과로는 전년동월대비 변화율로 측정한 대외교역(무역수지)은 덴마크 등 6개국을 제외하면 모두 자본시장에 유의미한 영향을 주지 못하는 것으로 나타났다. 그러나 GARCH 모형상의 충격전이를 측정한 분산방정식에서는 미국 등 7개국을 제외한 17개국에서 대외교역(무역수지)의 변동성은 주식시장의 변동성에 일정한 유의미한 영향을 미치는 것으로 확인되었다. 한편, 반대로 자본시장의 무역수지에 대한 평균방정식 상의 수익률 전이는 좀 더 포괄적으로 나타났는데 한국을 비롯한 총 13개국에서 월별 주식시장 수익률이 전년동월대비 무역수지 변화에 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났다. 또한 분산방정식 상의 충격전이 효과 역시 영국 등 총 17개국에서 자본시장의 충격이 무역수지 변화에 대한 변동성에 유의미한 영향을 미치는 것으로 확인되었다. 이 같은 결과는 실물시장과 자본시장 간의 선행적 충격이 양 시장의 변동성에 일정한 영향을 미쳐 반응한다는 가설이 성립함을 입증한다.

In this paper, I analyze volatility spillover effects between monthly stock market return and monthly differences of trade balance calculated from the same month of the previous year with the sample of 24 OECD member countries, by using the GARCH(generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity) framework. Major findings are as belows. Firstly, it is confirmed that volatility spillovers in the bilateral direction of these two capital and real market are more significantly evident than return spillovers in those market from the GARCH estimation results. Secondly, I found the same 17 countries with the significant volatility spillovers out of 24 sample countries in both direction of the market, ie from the trade to the stock and vice versa. From the GARCH estimation results on the stock market return by the trade difference, there are more negatively significant results than those in the positive. Therefore the trade market is shown to act as a stabilizing role in some way to the stock market. Thirdly, from the GARCH estimation on the trade difference by the stock market return, there found the same number of significant signs of negative and positive, thus failing to any certain roles of the market. Lastly, the global stock market index and composite variables from US and Europe were proved to be good indicators for the explanatory variables of these GARCH type regression procedure.

환율이 무역수지에 미치는 영향에 관한 현존 문헌들은 완전하게 결론에 이르지 못했다. 다양한 실증적 결과들은 집적 편향 및 분석 시 비대칭효과 제외라는 두 가지 중요한논의에 바탕을 두고 있다. 본 글은 한-일 무역수지에 미치는 환율의 영향을 조사한다. 본연구는 집적 편향 문제를 해결하기 위해 1970년부터 2017년까지의 연간 자료를 사용하여 45개 표준 국제 무역 분류(SITC) 재화 중 2자리 단계(2-digit level)를 분석했다. 비선형자기 회귀 시차 분포(NARDL) 모형은 환율변화의 비대칭효과를 포함하기 위하여 사용되었다. 이 실증적 연구 결과는 비대칭효과의 존재를 확인시켜 준다. 장기적인 경험적 결과는 18개 산업에 걸쳐 (대일 한국의 총 무역 거래 중 16.53%) 한국 원화의 평가절하로 인한 한국 무역수지 개선을 입증하나 한국 원화 평가절상으로 인한 무역수지 악화는 16개산업에서 (총 무역 거래 중 39.71%) 나타났다. 이것들은 한국 무역수지가 일본 엔화대비한국 원화의 평가절하보다는 평가절상에 영향을 받는 것을 시사한다.

The existing literature pertaining to the impact of exchange rate on trade balance reveals inconclusive results. The mixed empirical outcomes potentially rest on two critical arguments: aggregation bias and the exclusion of asymmetric effect in the analysis. This article examines the effect of exchange rate on Korea-Japan trade balance. The study is conducted at 2-digit level of 45 SITC commodities to resolve the aggregation bias problem, using annual data during 1970 to 2016. The nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag model (NARDL) is used in order to incorporate the asymmetric effect of exchange rate change in the study. The empirical findings confirm the existence of asymmetric effect. The long run empirical results demonstrate that the improvement of Korea trade balance due to a depreciation of KRW is found in 18 industries (16.53 per cent of total trade of Korea with Japan), whereas the aggravations in trade balance because of the appreciation of KRW are found in 16 industries (39.71 per cent of total trade). These implies that Korea trade balance is affected by an appreciation rather than a depreciation of KRW against JPY.

본 연구는 1992년 한중 국교수교 이후 대 중국 교역 비중이 매우 크게 증가하였음에도 불구하고 이에 대한 연구가 미진한 가운데 1993년 1월부터 2013년 12월까지의 월별자료를 이용하여, 한국과 중국과의 HTI산업 분류 기준 10 산업별 수출․입 수요함수를 구축하고 Marshall-Lerner 조건과 J-cuve 효과를 평가하기 위하여 ARDL-bounds 공적분 검정법을 사용 중국과의 교역에서 산업별 환율의 장․단기 효과를 분석하였다. 환율의 장기 가격탄력성의 합이 1보다 커야 Marshall-Lerner 조건이 충족되고 평가절하가 상품수지를 개선시킬 수 있으나 실증분석 결과 10개 산업별 수출․입 수요함수와 총 수출․입 수요함수가 Marshall-Lerner 조건을 충족시키지 못하였다. 또한 단기 환율변동의 J-Curve 효과도 역시 나타나지 않는 것으로 밝혀졌다. 따라서 경영자의 관점에서 중국과의 무역에 대한 환율정책은 상품수지 균형에 왜곡을 가져올 수 있기 때문에 신중해야 하며, 중국과의 교역확대와 타국 상품과의 대체탄력성 제고 등 비가격정책이 유효하다.

This paper estimates Marshall-Runner condition and J-curve effect for bilateral trade equations between Korea and China for the period 1993Q1∼2013Q4. The methodology used here is the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) cointegraion procedure recently developed in the literature. Result of empirical analysis, did not meet the Marshall-Runner condition that a country’s trade balance will improve in the long-run if its currency is allowed to depreciate in all export and import demand functions. In addition, all industries export and import demand functions did not appaear J-curve effect that devaluation of the exchange rate will negative effect in short therm but gradually a positive effect. Therefore, Exchange police of government for the trade with China need to be careful, because it can lead to distortions in the balance of trade. In addition, the proportion is the largest 8. electronic ․ electrical industry of exports to China from South Korea, the elasticity of substitution with other countries of industrial products is inelastic. Therefore, efforts to maintain these competitive persistently is urgent.

This study investigate the effect of exchange rate volatility on trade balance for Vietnam during the period of 2010 from first quarter to the 2021 second quarter. The dynamic simulations of autoregressive distributed lag (DYNARDL) approach is applied to analyze positive and negative changes on trade balance of exchange rate volatibility, finalcial development, financial globalization and economic growth in Vietnam. The conditional variance of the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model is used to estimate the exchange rate volatility. The results indicated a significant positive effect of real exchange rate volatility on Viet Nam’s balance trade while there was no effect of nominal exchange rate volatility.

This study aims to investigate the impact of the Abe Administration’s weak yen strategy on trade through economic indices. This study focuses on the fact that Abe Administration implemented an easy money policy to get out of long-term economic stagnation, but the effect of weak yen was little to explore and discuss what caused that. In 2012, in the democratic regime, 1 dollar was exchanged at 80 yen, and in May 2013, in the Abe Administration, 1 dollar was exchanged at 100 yen, so yen was weak. Later, in June 2015, the yen weakened up to 125.85 yen. This is an effect of Abe Administration’s easy money policy, and since what Abe Administration expected was the recovery of the exports industry according to weak yen, so it is judged that there was some achievement. However, corporate performance was recovered by the weak yen, but there were problems, including the increase in the price of imports and no increase in the volume of export. The conclusions discussed using macroscopic data are as follows: First, in spite of the weak yen, the volume of exports did not increase. During the period of the weak yen in 2013, no big change in the volume of exports to the U.S., E.U., and China was observed, so the effect of the depreciation of Japanese yen was weak. During the period of the weak yen in 2015, the volume of exports to the U.S. decreased. However, exports to the E.U. increased a little, and later, despite the Japanese yen was strengthened, an increasing trend was observed. This means that the weak yen did not affect the volume of export. Second, the easy money policy promoted for economic recovery acted as a limitation in the creation of jobs. The volume of exports is very important since output would not increase unless the quantity increases, though the volume of exports increased by the weak yen. Since employment would not increase unless output increases, the effect of corporate profit on employment is limited though it increases. Meanwhile, unless nominal wages increase as the price of imported goods increases, real wages decline. It is judged that since the easy money policy to get out of long-term stagnation brought about weak yen and increased business performance, but there was a limitation in the increase of output, its impact on the Japanese economy was small overall.

The Influence of the exchange rates on the trade balance is well known asMarshall-Lerner condition that assumes a perfect exchange rate pass-through, the impact ofthe exchange rate on export and import prices. In this paper, we analyzed the effect of theexchange rates on the trade balance in the case that the exchange rate pass- through isincomplete. Using the cointegration analysis methods, the effects of exchange rates on the trade balancebetween South Korea and her 33 trading partners were analysed. In the case of the bilateraltrade balance with 13 countries, the effect of the nominal exchange rate was positive, but inthe case of 5 countries it was negative, and in the cases of other 15 countries, it wasinsignificant.

This study investigate the effect of exchange rate volatility on trade balance for Vietnam during the period of 2010 from first quarter to the 2021 second quarter. The dynamic simulations of autoregressive distributed lag (DYNARDL) approach is applied to analyze positive and negative changes on trade balance of exchange rate volatibility, finalcial development, financial globalization and economic growth in Vietnam. The conditional variance of the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model is used to estimate the exchange rate volatility. The results indicated a significant positive effect of real exchange rate volatility on Viet Nam’s balance trade while there was no effect of nominal exchange rate volatility.

This study investigates the asymmetric effect of real exchange rate on trade balance in Korea. The nonlinear ARDL model of Shin et al. (2014) is employed as econometric methodology. While the linear ARDL model fails to find cointegration relationship between variables, nonlinear ARDL model captures cointegration relationship which is robust to lags and restrictions. We found there exist J-curve effect and the three types of asymmetries in relationship of trade balance and real exchange rate. First, long-run reaction asymmetry: depreciation improves trade balance, but appreciation does not work. Second, short-run impact asymmetry: contemporaneous change of exchange rate affects trade balance differently. Third, adjustment asymmetry: adjustment process on long-run equilibrium with face to appreciation and depreciation is not equal.

근래 환경상품의 무역자유화가 새로운 통상의제로 주목받고 있는 이유는 이들 상품에 대한 관세 및 비관세 무역장벽을 제거하여 시장접근을 개선함으로써 무역 이익을 확대할 수 있을 뿐만 아니라 환경보호 및 개도국 경제개발에도 기여할 수 있는 등 이른바 ‘일석삼조의 효과’를 거둘 수 있는 것으로 인식되고 있기 때문이다. 이에 따라 WTO는 지난 2001년 DDA를 통해 환경상품의 무역자유화 문제를 ‘환경 -무역 연계’ 분야에 있어서 주요 협상의제로 채택하였다. 그러나 이후 환경상품의 정의 및 범위의 설정, 무역자유화의 대상이 되는 환경상품의 개별적인 선정 등에 있어서 회원국･회원국그룹 간 이해관계의 대립 등으로 인해 WTO 내에서의 논의 및 협상은 다소 지지부진한 상태였으며, OECD나 APEC 등을 통해 주로 개별적인 환경상품의 리스트를 개발･작성하는 작업이 진행되어 왔다. 그런데 최근 APEC, ‘다보스 공동선언’ 등을 통해 무역자유화의 대상이 되는 환경상품이 구체적으로 선 정되고 있고, 비록 비구속적인 합의이긴 하지만 이에 관한 실질적인 관세감축 합의 가 이루어지고 있을 뿐만 아니라, 무역자유화 의무의 수립을 위한 복수국 간 협정 체결에 관한 국제사회의 움직임도 구체화 되면서 우리나라도 이에 대한 면밀한 검 토와 대비가 필요한 시점이라고 할 수 있다. 그런데 환경상품의 무역자유화에 관한 문제는 단순히 무역이익의 확대만을 목표로 하고 있을 뿐만 아니라 환경과 개발 이익도 동시에 추구하는, 소위 “win-win-win” 정책목적 달성을 궁극적인 목표로 하고 있어 그만큼 관련 논의가 복잡하고 합의가 어려운 측면이 있다. 지금까지 WTO 논의과정에서, 특히 개도국들이 환경상품의 무 역자유화가 주로 몇몇 선진국 중심의 무역이익 확대에만 초점을 맞추어 논의되고 추진되고 있다고 주장하며 불신의 눈초리를 보내고 있다는 사실은 이를 잘 방증하 는 것이기도 하다. 그러므로 환경상품의 무역자유화에 관한 문제는 해당 상품의 시 장개방에 따른 무역이익의 확대뿐만 아니라, 환경･개발 목적의 균형있는 달성이라고 하는 “win-win-win” 정책목적이 적극 고려될 필요가 있다고 할 것이다. 이러한 인식으로 바탕으로, 본 논문은 그동안 WTO 내･외에서 환경상품의 무역자 유화에 관하여 논의･제시되어 온 주요 제안 내용을 고찰 및 재검토 하고, 이를 통해 향후 환경상품의 무역자유화 협상에 있어서 무역-환경-개발의 “win-win-win” 정책 목적의 균형있는 달성을 위하여 고려되어야 할 것으로 생각되는 몇 가지 규범적 요 소를 간략히 정리･제시하였다. 이러한 논의를 통하여 환경상품의 무역자유화가 무역 -환경-개발 이익의 조화를 위한 규범적 수단으로서의 기능과 역할을 충실히 수행할 수 있는 협상 방안이 마련될 수 있기를 기대한다.

The reason that the trade liberalization of environmental goods is becoming a new trade issue is that the elimination of tariff and non-tariff trade barriers on these goods can not only increase trade profits but also contribute to the interests of environment and development. Accordingly, the WTO adopted the trade liberalization of environmental goods as a main agenda of the “trade-environment linkage” issues since DDA in 2001. However, the WTO has shown slow progress in defining and selecting environmental goods and their boundaries due to clashes of differences in member countries’ interests while discussions in the OECD or APEC have been headed towards developing and formulating individual lists of environmental goods. More recently, the APEC and ‘Davos Joint Statement’ listed the environmental goods that are subjected to substantial reduction of tariff. As the discussions and negotiations on the trade liberalization of environmental goods become more detailed, it is expected that some specific obligations such as tariff reduction will be established in the near future, resulting in the necessity of Korea to prepare for the issue. The discussions and negotiations on the issue is difficult as well as intricate because the ultimate objective of trade liberalization of environmental goods is accomplishing the so-called “win-win-win” policy goal, calling for a balance among trade, environmental and developmental interests. Nevertheless, the discussions held by the WTO until now have allegedly been focused on the trade or economic profits for some developed countries, provoking the developing countries’ resistance. Therefore, the author claims there is a necessity to consider which factors should be more reflected in future discussions and negotiations in order to secure a balance among trade, environmental, and developmental interests. Based on this knowledge, this paper reexamined the details of negotiations suggested and discussed concerning the trade liberalization of environmental goods within and outside of the WTO, followed by the presentation of a few normative factors that should be more considered to obtain the balanced “win-win-win” policy goal of trade, environment, and development.

In our paper, we demonstratethat positive country-specific output and money supply shocks depreciate the real exchange rate and improve trade balance when the preferences across countries are home-biased (that is, when the degree of trade openness is low) and relative risk aversion of CRRA utility is greater than the elasticity of substitution across countries (that is assumed 1 in our model) in the NOEM model of inter-temporal CRRA utility optimization. In this setting, we also show that the increase in trade openness reduces the extent of real depreciation and the magnitude of trade surplus. Moreover, we tested aforementioned hypotheses empirically on the quarterly data of 19 OECD countries from 1973:Q1 through 2010:Q1 employing panel estimation by seemingly unrelated regression. In the benchmark regression, results for trade balance turned out satisfactory, whereas those for the real exchange rate are not. In the sub-period from 2000:Q1 through 2010:Q1, all the coefficients are in the anticipated direction and statistically significantat 1% significance level. Under floating regimes, all the coefficients except those on output expansion and its interaction term are in the anticipated direction and statistically significant at 10% significance level.

Time series data from 1980 to 2016 were analyzed in this paper in order to estimate the impact of the local currency (CFA franc) devaluation on the Cameroon’s Trade Balance. The estimation of short-run and long-run relationships between the variables using Johansen Cointegration and Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) as a mean to examine whether the Marshall-Lerner Condition (MLC) and the J-Curve phenomenon hold in the case of Cameroon gives mitigated results: Although the MLC is not met for this country, as the sum of the elasticities of demand for exports and imports is not greater than unity, the empirical analysis results provide evidence of the correction in the long-run of a prior deterioration of the trade balance at an adjustment speed of 81.17%, thus supporting the existence of the J-curve pattern.

We consider the bilateral trade balance of the U.S. with each of her 13 trading partners from the developing world. When we apply the linear ARDL approach of Pesaran et al. (2001), we find support for the J-curve effect with six partners. However, when we apply Shin et al.’s (2014) nonlinear ARDL approach to asymmetry analysis, we find support for the J-curve in the U.S. trade with 10 partners. Additionally, while we find support for the short-run asymmetric effects of exchange rate changes in almost all cases, the short-run effects translate into the long-run significant asymmetric effects in half of the cases.

The purpose of this study is to determine the J-curve effect on Turkiye’s services trade in the short and long run and the impact of fluctuations in exchange rates changes based on the direction of currency movement. Using quarterly data from ten Turkish service industries, we evaluate the asymmetric J-curve theory. Employing the linear autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) technique, we tested for a symmetric J-curve and discovered evidence for the inverse J-curve in one industry and the J- curve in three. However, we discovered support for the asymmetric J- curve in two industries and the asymmetric inverse J-curve in one industry when we investigated the asymmetric J-curve using the nonlinear ARDL technique. The change in supported cases illustrates how the Turkish lira's real effective exchange rate adjusts nonlinearly.

For the US, recent research has found that exchange rate and asset price movements play an important role in foreign asset revaluation and international trade. This paper studies the impacts of exchange rate and asset price fluctuations on foreign asset revaluation and trade balance in South Korea. I find that asset revaluation in South Korea differs from that in the US because both Korea’s foreign assets and liabilities are denominated in foreign currencies and are subject to exchange rate changes. Furthermore, as implied in recent work, external imbalance can help forecast exchange rates and portfolio returns, but now most of the forecasting power arises from trade imbalance, rather than asset imbalance.

This paper analyzes the dynamics of trade balance and real exchange rate based on the elasticity and purchasing power parity (PPP) approaches. Here, a stationary vector autoregressive model with cointegration error, transformed from the error correction model in Kim (2012), is employed. Trade balance and PPP are jointly considered as the two long-run cointegration relationships that represent external economy equilibria. The model was applied to the dynamic analyses of Korea’s trade balance using monthly data from 1990, where model variables from the elasticity and PPP approaches were selected. Based on the estimation, we first confirmed the finding of Cheung et al. (2004), whereas trade balance is additionally considered. The nominal exchange rate adjustment, not the price adjustment, is the key engine that governs the speed of PPP convergence, and the nominal exchange rates were found to converge much more slowly than the prices. The nominal exchange shock did not significantly affect trade balance, whereas the price shocks did. Therefore, manipulation of the nominal exchange rate through intervention to improve trade balance might not be an effective policy tool.