Earticle

본 연구는 수출보험의 내생성문제를 중심으로 수출과 수출보험의 인과관계를 실증적으로 분 석하였다. 수출보험을 정책변수로 설정하고 수출보험의 효과를 분석한 실증연구에서는 본질 적으로 정책변수의 내생성에 대한 문제가 발생한다. 수출보험이 특정 국가의 수출을 증대시킬 수 있지만, 동시에 수출의 증대는 수출보험에 대한 부보 수요를 증가시켜 수출보험인수액도 함께 상승할 가능성이 있다. 이러한 경우 특정국가의 수출액과 수출보험실적에는 양방향 인과 관계와 설명변수의 내생성이 존재한다. 설명변수에 내생성이 존재할 경우 수출보험의 정책효 과에 대한 통계적 증거는 신뢰성을 상실하고 실증분석결과와 해석은 무의미하게 된다. 이러한 배경에서 본 연구는 수출보험의 내생성 문제를 상기하고, 이러한 가능성을 평가하기 위하여 수출액과 수출보험실적 사이의 인과관계와 그 방향에 대하여 실증분석을 실시한다. 구체적으 로 광범위한 패널자료를 이용하여 패널단위근검정과 패널공적분검정을 실시하였다. 특히 그 랜저인과관계분석(Granger-Causality Test)과 함께 최근에 개발된 패널자료 인과관계 분석방법 중에서 가장 대표적인 Dumitrescu-Hurlin분석법을 이용하여 인과관계를 살펴보았다. 이를 위하 여 2008년부터 2020년까지 37개 OECD국가의 수출액과 수출신용보험인수액에 대한 분기별 패 널자료를 이용하여 실증분석을 실시하고, 인과관계의 방향을 분석하였다. 실증분석 결과를 요 약하면, 첫째로 패널자료에서 수출액과 수출보험실적사이에는 장기적으로 공적분 관계가 존 재하는 것으로 나타난다. 둘째로 Pairwise Granger 인과관계분석에서는 양방향 인과관계가 존 재할 가능성이 높은 것으로 나타났으나, 개별 국가의 횡단면 이질성을 고려한 Dumitrescu-Hurlin 패널 인과분석 결과에서 수출보험이 수출액에 영향을 미치는 방향으로 인과 관계가 존재한다. 따라서 개별국가의 이질성과 패널자료의 특성을 고려할 경우, 수출보험이 수출액에 영향을 준다는 실증적 증거가 발견된다. 이러한 분석결과는 선행연구에서 나타난 수출보험의 정책적 효과는 통계적으로 유의한 결과임을 의미한다. 본 연구의 분석결과는 향후 수출신용제도에 대한 실증분석에 있어 국가별 이질성과 내생성 문제를 재인식할 필요가 있다는 점을 시사한다.

Purpose : The purpose of this study is to empirically examine the causality between export and export insurance in the respective of the endogeneity of the export insurance. Research design, data, methodology : For this purpose, this study establishes an econometric methodology in the framework of a panel specific form of Granger causality, so called Dumitrescu-Hurlin test. And then the study attempts to determine the direction of causality by Granger causality tests at the level of individual countries, and the Dumitrescu-Hurlin tests with common coefficients and individual specific coefficients with a quarterly panel data set for 37 OECD countries from 2008 to 2020. Results : The estimation results report that the Dumitrescu-Hurlin tests demonstrate the evidence for the causality in the direction from export insurance to export, while the pairwise Granger causality tests show that for the possibility of the bidirectional causality between export and the insurance. The results imply that it is likely to have the policy effect of the insurance on export with taking into account of heterogeneity across countries. Conclusions : The evidence for the panel causality tests confirms that export insurance seems to have a probable policy effect discovered in the literature. The results of this study suggest that the policy authority consider heterogeneity across countries and the possibility of the endogeneity in the policy effect of export insurance on export.

많은 연구에서 가뭄 전파를 살펴볼 때 선형 상관관계를 적용하는 것에 관한 신뢰성 문제를 제기하고 있다. 기상학적 가뭄에서 수문학적 가뭄으로의 전파의 본질은 강수량과 유출량 사이의 인과관계이다. 수문 분야에서 인과관계 분석은 모형화 분야에서는 급성장하고 있지만, 관측자료를 이용하는 경우는 아직 드물다. 본 연구에서는 순수하게 관측자료 를 기반으로 CCM(Convergent Cross Mapping) 기법을 사용하여 가뭄 전파에 대한 새로운 관점(즉, 인과관계)을 제 공하는 것이 목적이다. 한반도 남동부에 있는 합천댐 유역의 표준화 강수 지수와 표준화 하천 유량 지수 사이의 인과 적 영향이 1989~2023년의 관측자료를 이용하여 분석된다. 또한 댐 유입량과 댐 방류량으로부터 계산된 표준화 하천 유량 지수를 이용하여, 기상학적 가뭄에서 수문학적 가뭄으로의 전파가 댐에 의해 어떻게 영향을 받았는지를 살펴본 다. 기존 연구 결과와 비교하여 가뭄 전파 연구에서 인과관계 분석을 적용하는 것이 선형 상관관계 분석을 적용하는 것과 어떤 차이가 있는지를 보여준다.

Many researchers have raised reliability concerns about applying linear correlations when looking at drought propagation. The essence of propagation from meteorological to hydrological drought is the causal relationship between precipitation and runoff. Causal analysis in hydrology is a burgeoning area of modeling, but it is still rarely done using observational data. This study aims to provide a new perspective on drought propagation (i.e., causality) using a convergent cross mapping (CCM) technique based purely on observations. The causal influence between the standardized precipitation index and the standardized stream flow index in the Hapcheon Dam basin in the southeastern part of the Korean Peninsula is analyzed using observations from 1989 to 2023. Using the standardized streamflow index calculated from dam inflow and dam discharge, this study examines how the transmission of meteorological drought to hydrological drought was affected by the dam. Compared to the results of existing studies, this paper shows how applying causal analysis in drought propagation studies differs from applying linear correlation analysis.

중국의 개혁·개방 정책은 중국의 급속한 성장과 경제적 격차의 심화와 같은 사 회적 문제를 동시에 발생시켰다. 최근, 중국 정부는 급속한 경제성장으로 인해 야 기된 문제들을 해결하고자 다양한 정책을 시행하고 있다. 본 연구는 균형성장의 일환으로 시행되고 있는 교통에 대한 투자와 경제성장 간의 인과성을 분석함으로 써 정책방향을 평가한다. 1차 적분된 패널자료인 교통에 대한 투자와 경제성장 간의 인과성을 분석하기 위해, 본 연구는 패널 단위근 검정, 패널 공적분 모형, 패널 벡터오차수정모형을 적용하였다. 그 결과, 모든 변수들은 적분된 패널자료 였으나, 중앙지역은 공적분 관계가 존재하지 않았다. 따라서 차분변수로 패널 벡터자기회귀 모형을 적용하였으며, 단기적으로 교통부문의 투자가 경제성장에 긍 정적인 영향을 주는 것으로 나타났다. 반면, 동부해안지역, 동북지역, 서부지역은 변수 간의 유의미한 장기적 인과관계가 확인되었다. 세 권역은 단기적으로 ‘1인당 실질 교통투자액이 1인당 실질 지역내총생산의 원인이다’라는 가설의 통계적 유 의성을 확보하였지만, ‘1인당 실질 지역내총생산이 1인당 실질 교통투자액의 원 인이다’라는 가설은 통계적 유의성을 확보하지 못했다. 장기적인 관점에서는 세 권역에서 모두 양방향적인 인과관계가 포착되었다. 이는 ‘1인당 실질 교통투자액 이 1인당 실질 지역내총생산의 원인임과 동시에 결과이다’라는 가설이 통계적으 로 유의미함을 의미한다. 그러나, 장기적인 관점에서 정부주도 하의 교통투자가 중앙지역의 경제성장에 효과를 주지 못하고 있음은 지속적인 경제성장을 위해 각 권역별 특성을 고려한 상향식 투자형태도 적극적으로 시행되어야 함을 의미한다.

China's reform and opening-up has simultaneously generated rapid economic growth and economic disparity. Recently, the Chinese government has implemented various policies to solve problems caused by quantitative growth. This study has evaluated the direction of policy, which is being implemented as part of balanced growth, by applying the causality method between investment in transport and economic growth. To analyze the causality between the two integrated variables, this study applied panel cointegration, panel vector error correction model and panel vector autoregression model. As a result, in the central area, there is no long-run equilibrium and investment in transport affects economic growth positively, but significant causal relation was identified in eastern coastal, northeast and western area. This indicates that government-led public investment to solve economic disparity is having a positive effect through improved accessibility and redistribution of resources in some areas, but it has no effect in the other area. Thus, to get more efficient results, not only top-down investment policies, but bottom-up investment policies that take into account the characteristics of each areas should be actively considered.

광고비와 재무성과 사이의 인과 관계에 대한 논의는 마케팅 연구에서 매우 중요한 주제이다. 이를 다룬 선행 연구들은 단순히 상관관계를 보여주었거나, 충분히 정교하지 않은 연구 설계 및 자료를 활용하였다. 그래서 이 관계에 대한 명쾌한 해답은 아직까지 내려지지 않은 것으로 보인다. 이 문제에 대한 이론적, 실증적 기여를 위해 본 연구는 구조 방정식 모델링 기법을 적용한 교차지연패널 분석을 통해 광고비와 재무성과 간의 인과 관계를 분석하였다. 이 기법을 통해 두 변수 사이에 양방향의 인과 관계를 동시에 고려함으로써, 어느 한 쪽이 더 우세한 인과 관계를 가지는지 혹은 상호 인과 관계가 성립하는지를 비교할 수 있다. 세 시점에서 걸쳐서 152개 기업에서 수집한 종단 연구 자료를 이용하여 광고비와 재무성과 사이의 인과 관계를 분석한 결과, 광고비에서 재무성과에 이르는 경로를 포함하는 보통 인과 모형이 다른 대안 모형들에 비해 가장 우수하였으며, 또한 그 경로만이 통계적으로 유의한 반면 반대 경로는 그렇지 않음이 드러났다. 본 연구결과는 기업의 의사결정자들에게 광고비가 단순히 비용에 불과한 것이 아니라 미래 재무성과를 높이기 위한 투자라는 시사점을 제공한다. 특히, 이 결과는 기업의 재무상태가 어려울 때, 단순히 광고비를 줄이는 방식으로 대응하는 것이 아니라, 오히려 적절한 광고비 지출 전략을 수립하는데 도움이 될 것으로 기대한다.

Although the discussion over the causal relationship between advertising expenditure and financial performance is a very important but perennial issue in marketing, previous research was limited to merely showing correlations or attempting to show causal relationships but showing inconsistent results. The present research adds to the extant body of research by analyzing and demonstrating the causal relationship between advertising expenditure and financial performance using structural equation model (SEM) through a cross-lagged panel analysis. This method has the advantage of testing whether the causal relationship is uni- or bi-directional. The analysis of the causal relationships between the two variables using the three biennial data of 152 firms revealed that the path from advertising expenditure to financial performance was statistically significant while the opposite path was not. Therefore, the results suggest that advertising expenditure is not a simple expense but an investment to improve future financial performance. We expect this result to be meaningful particularly in establishing an appropriate strategy for advertising expenditure when the financial condition of the company is bad.

본 연구는 구조방정식모형을 이용하여 자연생태계의 일부분인 기후 네트워크를 구축하여 청보리(Whole crop barley: WCB)의 생산량에 영향을 미치는 기후요인의 인 과성을 분석할 목적으로 수행하였다. WCB 데이터셋 (n=316)은 사료정보와 기상정보로 이루어졌다. 여기서 생 초수량, 건물수량, 재배연도 및 지역을 포함하는 사료정 보는 다양한 신품종재배실험(1993-2012)으로부터 수집하 였다. 기상정보는 일평균온도, 강수 및 일조시간을 포함 하며 기상청의 기상정보시스템으로부터 수집하였다. 기상 변수는 파종일부터 수확일까지 기간을 계절(가을, 겨울 및 이듬해봄)로 구분한 생육기간, 누적온도, 강수 및 일조시간이었다. 생산량에 영향을 미치는 기후의 인과성 네트 워크는 구조방정식에 의해 모델로 만들었다. 그 결과, 세 가지 특징으로 가을과 이듬해봄 간의 종단효과, WCB 생 산량에 대한 직접효과, 그리고 온도를 통한 강수의 간접 효과가 뚜렷하게 나타났다. WCB 생산량에 대한 중요성 은 이듬해봄 온도(0.45), 가을온도(0.35), 월동(-0.16) 및 이 듬해봄 강수(0.04) 순으로 나타났다. 그러므로 본 연구를 통해 온도, 생장일수, 강수 및 일조를 포함한 기후 네트 워크에서 다른 기후요인들이 최종경로인 이듬해 봄의 온 도와 생장일수를 통해 WCB 생산량에 간접적으로 영향을 미친다는 결론을 내렸다.

This study aimed to analyze causality of climatic factors that affecting the yield of whole crop barley (WCB) by constructing a network within the natural ecosystem via the structural equation model. The WCB dataset (n=316) consisted of data on the forage information and climatic information. The forage information was collected from numerous experimental reports from New Cultivars of Winter Crops (1993-2012) and included details of fresh and dry matter yield, and the year and location of cultivation. The climatic information included details of the daily mean temperature, precipitation, and sunshine duration from the weather information system of the Korea Meteorological Administration. The variables were growing days, accumulated temperature, precipitation, and sunshine duration in the season for the period of seeding to harvesting. The data was collected over 3 consecutive seasons—autumn, winter, and the following spring. We created a causality network depicting the effect of climatic factors on production by structural equation modeling. The results highlight: (i) the differences in the longitudinal effects between autumn and next spring, (ii) the factors that directly affect WCB production, and (iii) the indirect effects by certain factors, via two or more paths. For instance, the indirect effect of precipitation on WCB production in the following spring season via its effect on temperature was remarkable. Based on absolute values, the importance of WCB production in decreasing order was: the following spring temperature (0.45), autumn temperature (0.35), wintering (-0.16), and following spring precipitation (0.04). Therefore, we conclude that other climatic factors indirectly affect production through the final pathway, temperature and growing days in the next spring, in the climate-production network for WCB including temperature, growing days, precipitation and sunshine duration.

본 연구는 1인당 국내총생산(명목), 총저축률(%), GDP 디플레이터(2020=100), 경제활동 참가율, 고용률, 실업률 등 경제지표와 재해자수, 사망자수, 부상자, 재해율 등 산업재해를 연구대상으로 경제지표와 산업재해 간의 상관관계, 경제지표가 산업재해에 미치는 영향, 경제지표의 산업재해에 대한 선행성 등을 분석하는데 그 목적이 있다. 이를 규명하기 위하 여 상관분석(correlation analysis), 단순회귀분석(simple regression analysis), 교차상관분석 (cross-correlation analysis)을 실시하였다. 구체적인 연구결과는 다음과 같다. 경제지표와 산업재해 간의 상관관계, 경제지표가 산업재해에 미치는 영향, 경제지표의 산업재해에 대한 선행성 등은 부분적으로 유의미한 관계를 가진다. 따라서 1인당 국내총생 산(명목), 총저축률(%), GDP 디플레이터(2020=100), 경제활동참가율, 고용률, 실업률 등 경 제지표는 재해자수, 사망자수, 부상자, 재해율 등 산업재해를 예측할 수 있는 선행지표로 활용할 수 있다는 것을 시사한다. 앞으로 상기 1인당 국내총생산(명목), 총저축률(%), GDP 디플레이터(2020=100), 경제활 동참가율, 고용률, 실업률 등을 포함하는 다양한 경제지표를 독립변수로 하고, 재해자수, 사망자수, 부상자, 재해율 등을 포함하는 산업재해를 종속변수로 하는 후속연구를 지속적 으로 진행하여 경제지표와 산업재해 간의 인과관계에 대한 학문적, 실무적 근거를 축적하 여야 할 것이다.

This study aims to analyze the correlation between economic indicators and industrial accidents, the impact of economic indicators on industrial accidents, and the precedence of economic indicators on industrial accidents, using economic indicators such as GDP per capita(nominal), gross savings rate(%), GDP deflator (2020=100), economic activity participation rate, employment rate, and unemployment rate as research subjects and industrial accidents such as the number of casualties, number of deaths, injuries, and accident rates. To clarify this, correlation analysis, simple regression analysis, and cross-correlation analysis were conducted. The specific research results are as follows. The correlation between economic indicators and industrial accidents, the impact of economic indicators on industrial accidents, and the precedence of economic indicators on industrial accidents have partially significant relationships. Therefore, it suggests that economic indicators such as GDP per capita(nominal), gross savings rate(%), GDP deflator(2020=100), economic activity participation rate, employment rate, and unemployment rate can be used as leading indicators to predict industrial accidents such as number of casualties, number of deaths, injuries, and accident rates.

의료과오 민사소송의 주된 쟁점은, 과실, 과실과 손해 사이의 인과관계이다. 진료 상 과실이 증명된 경우 인과관계 추정과 관련하여 종래 대법원 1995. 2. 10. 선고 93다52402 판결이 있으나, 위 판결 문언 상 요건을 충족하는 사안은 찾기 어렵고, 그럼에 도 실무는 위 판결을 인용하면서 인과관계를 추정하는 경우가 많아 위 판결 문언과 정합 성이 없다는 비판이 꾸준히 제기되었다. 대법원은 대상 민사판결에서, 민사소송에서 진료 상 과실이 증명된 경우 인과관계 추정 에 관한 법리를 정비하여 새롭게 제시하였다. 이에 의하면, 환자 측이 의료행위 당시 임상의 학 분야에서 실천되고 있는 의료수준에서 통상의 의료인에게 요구되는 주의의무의 위반 즉 진료 상 과실로 평가되는 행위의 존재를 증명하고, 그 과실이 환자 측의 손해를 발생시킬 개연성이 있다는 점을 증명한 경우에는, 진료 상 과실과 손해 사이의 인과관계를 추정하여 인과관계 증명책임을 완화한다. 여기서 손해 발생의 개연성은 자연과학적, 의학적 측면에 서 의심이 없을 정도로 증명될 필요는 없으나, 해당 과실과 손해 사이의 인과관계를 인정하 는 것이 의학적 원리 등에 부합하지 않거나 해당 과실이 손해를 발생시킬 막연한 가능성이 있는 정도에 그치는 경우에는 증명되었다고 볼 수 없다. 한편 진료 상 과실과 손해 사이의 인과관계가 추정되는 경우에도 의료행위를 한 측에서는 환자 측의 손해가 진료 상 과실로 인하여 발생한 것이 아니라는 것을 증명하여 추정을 번복시킬 수 있다. 한편 민사사건과 달리 형사사건에서는 ‘합리적 의심이 없을 정도의 증명’이 기준이고, 인과관계 추정 법리가 적용되지 않는다. 이에 따라 동일한 의료사고에 관하여 같은 날 동일한 재판부에서 선고된 업무상과실치사 형사사건에서는 진료 상 과실과 사망 사이 인과관계에 대한 증명 부족을 이유로 무죄 취지로 파기환송하였다. 대상 형사판결은, 의료과오 관련 형사 사건에서 ‘업무상 과실’이 인정되더라도 ‘인과 관계’에 대한 확실한 증명이 부족하면 유죄로 판단하지 말라는 취지의 판결이다.

The main issue in medical malpractice civil litigation is medical negligence and the causal relationship between medical negligence and damages. Regarding the presumption of causality in cases where medical negligence is proven, there is a previous Supreme Court decision 93da52402 on February 10, 1995, but it is difficult to find a case that satisfies the textual requirements of the above decision, and yet, in practice, the above decision is cited. In many cases, causal relationships were assumed, and criticism was consistently raised that it was inconsistent with the text of the above judgment. In its ruling, the Supreme Court reorganized and presented a new legal principle regarding the presumption of causality when medical negligence is proven in a civil lawsuit. According to this, If the patient proves ① the existence of an act that is assessed as a medical negligence, that is, a violation of the duty of care required of an ordinary medical professional at the level of medical care practiced in the field of clinical medicine at the time of medical practice, and ② that the negligence is likely to cause damages to the patient, the burden of proving the causal relationship is alleviated by presuming a causal relationship between medical negligence and damage. Here, the probability of occurrence of damage does not need to be proven beyond doubt from a natural scientific or medical perspective, but if recognizing the causal relationship between the negligence and the damage does not comply with medical principles or if there is a vague possibility that the negligence will cause damage, causality cannot be considered proven. Meanwhile, even if a causal relationship between medical negligence and damage is presumed, the party that performed the medical treatment can overturn the presumption by proving that the patient's damage was not caused by medical negligence. Meanwhile, unlike civil cases, the standard is ‘proof beyond reasonable doubt’ in criminal cases, and the legal principle of presuming causality does not apply. Accordingly, in a criminal case of professional negligence manslaughter that was decided on the same day regarding the same medical accident, the case was overturned and remanded for not guilty due to lack of proof of a causal relationship between medical negligence and death. The above criminal ruling is a ruling that states that even if ‘professional negligence’ is recognized in a criminal case related to medical malpractice, the person should not be judged guilty if there is a lack of clear proof of ‘causal relationship’.

이 연구의 목적은 교양교육을 위한 자연현상을 설명하는 목적론적 설명, 인과론 적인 설명, 그리고 통합의 변증법적 설명을 고찰하는 것이다. 과학의 가장 중요한 목표 중에 하나는, 우리 주위에 일어나는 자연 현상들을 설명하는 것이다. 단국대 학교 교양교육의 하나인 고전읽기교양교육과 저자의 과학사상사의 교육에서 현상 을 설명하는 설명방식은 매우 중요하다. 고대와 현대로 진행되는 과정에서 설명방 식은 지속적으로 진화되고 변화되기 때문이다. 어떤 현상에 대한 설명으로서, 근대 이전의 목적론적 질서체계에서는, 이 지상에서 활동하면서 실천하는 삶 모두가 천상의 목적을 사유하고 예속되는 경향이 강하 였다. 플라톤의 선의 이데아, 그리고 아리스토텔레스의 원동자는 우리가 본받고 따 르고자하는 철학적이고 합리적인 신이었다. 근대에는 세계가 수학적이고 역학적 법칙에 의해서 작동되는 기계로 규정되었다. 더 이상 존재론적 질서가 안내하는 궁 극적인 목적을 발견하기 위해서 존재에 목적론보다는 인과론적 질서를 새겨 넣는 실험적이고 구성적인 기능을 담당하게 되었다. 근대에는 사물의 운동은 그 사물 내 부의 본성(목적 원인)이라기보다는 사물의 외부의 원인(작용 원인)인 것으로 이해 된다. 뉴턴역학은 존재(대상)와 인식(주체)은 절대적으로 분리되어 있으며 독립적 인 것으로 완성되어있는 것이다. 이는 전통적인 서양의 근본정신으로 고정된 실체 가 존재한다는 전통이다. 하지만 다윈의 진화론과 양자역학은 존재대상과 인식주체가 상호 작용하면서 상 호 변환되며 상보적으로 발전하는 역사적인 산물이자 심리적으로 변증법적이고 자 연주의적인 것이다. 고정된 실체보다는 변화와 생성을 강조하는 것이다.

The aim of this study is to consider teleological explanations, causal explanations, and dialectical explanations of integration to explain natural phenomena. Because one of the most important goals of science is to explain the natural phenomena that occur around us. In Dankook University’s classical liberal arts education, which is one of the liberal arts education, and the education of the history of scientific thought, the explanation method to explain the phenomenon is very important. This is because the explanation method continues to evolve and change in the process of progressing from classical to modern. As an explanation of a certain phenomenon, in the teleological order system before the modern age, there was a strong tendency for all of the lives that were active and practiced on this earth to think about the purpose of the heavens and be subordinated. Plato’s idea of good, and Aristotle’s prime mover, were the philosophical and rational gods we want to imitate and follow. In modern times, the world has been defined as a machine operated by mathematical and mechanical laws. It no longer has the function of recalling and abstracting in order to discover the ultimate purpose guided by the ontological order, but rather the experimental and constructive function of inscribing causal order rather than teleology into existence. In modern times, the movement of things is understood to be an external cause (cause of action) of a thing rather than its internal nature(purpose cause). In Newtonian mechanics, existence(object) and cognition(subject) are absolutely separated and completed as independent. This is a tradition that a fixed entity exists as a fundamental spirit of the traditional West. However, Einstein’s theory of relativity and quantum mechanics are historical products and psychologically dialectical and naturalistic in which the object of existence and the subject of perception interact and mutually transform and develop complementarily. Rather than a fixed entity, it emphasizes variation and creation.

본 연구의 목적은 2007년∼2010년 유로 도입 이후 금융위기 및 그에 따른 EU 부채위기까지의 기간 내에 미국, 유 럽 및 BRIC 금융시장 간의 선형과 비선형 인과관계의 존재를 통해 글로벌 전이효과를 조사하는데 있다. 금융위기로 인한 글로벌 전이효과가 잘 설명되어 있지만, 미국, 유럽 및 BRIC 주식시장 간의 변동성 전이효과의 특성 뿐만 아니 라 전달 메커니즘은 체계적으로 조사되지 않았다. 동적 선형 및 비선형 인과관계를 조사하기 위해 단계적인 필터링 방법론이 도입되었는데, 이는 벡터자기회귀모형과 다변량 GARCH 모형을 포함한다. 본 논문의 표본은 유로 이후 기 간을 포함하고 또한 2007년 금융위기, 2008년 글로벌 금융위기, 2010년 유로존 부채위기도 포함한다. 본 연구의 실증 결과는 BRIC 주식시장의 효율성에 많은 함의를 가질 수 있는데 시장의 예측가능성에 영향을 미칠 뿐만 아니라 시장 의 금융통합의 과정을 수량화하기 위해서 미래의 연구에 유용할 수 있다. 미국, 유럽 및 BRIC 간의 상호 의존성이 감지되면 금융시장 규제, 헤징 및 거래 전략에 대한 중요한 함의를 나타낼 수 있다. 또한 결과는 BRIC이 미국발 서 브프라임 금융위기 이후 국제적으로 통합되고 있고 전이효과가 더욱 구체화 되어 현저하게 나타나고 있다는 것을 보 여준다. 더욱이, 탈동조화 견해를 지지하는 일관된 증거가 전혀 없다. 일부 비선형 인과관계는 조사기간 동안 필터링 후에도 지속된다. 비록 꼬리분포 의존성과 고적률이 나머지 상호 의존성의 유의한 요소일 수 있을지라도, 이것은 비 선형 인과관계가 단순한 변동성 효과에 의해 대체로 설명될 수 있다.

The purpose of this study is to investigate the global spillover effects through the existence of linear and nonlinear causal relationships between the US, European and BRIC financial markets after the period from the introduction of the Euro, the financial crisis and the subsequent EU debt crisis in 2007∼2010. Although the global spillover effects of the financial crisis are well described, the nature of the volatility effects and the spread mechanisms between the US, Europe and BRIC stock markets have not been systematically examined. A stepwise filtering methodology was introduced to investigate the dynamic linear and nonlinear causality, which included a vector autoregressive regression model and a multivariate GARCH model. The sample in this paper includes the post-Euro period, and also includes the financial crisis and the Eurozone financial and sovereign crisis. The empirical results can have many implications for the efficiency of the BRIC stock market. These results not only affect the predictability of this market, but can also be useful in future research to quantify the process of financial integration in the market. The interdependence between the United States, Europe and the BRIC can reveal significant implications for financial market regulation, hedging and trading strategies. And the findings show that the BRIC has been integrated internationally since the sub-prime and financial crisis erupted in the United States, and the spillover effects have become more specific and remarkable. Furthermore, there is no consistent evidence supporting the decoupling phenomenon. Some nonlinear causality persists even after filtering during the investigation period. Although the tail distribution dependence and higher moments may be significant factors for the remaining interdependencies, this can be largely explained by the simple volatility spillover effects in nonlinear causality.

의료사고에 대한 분쟁의 해결을 위해, 법원은 통상 진료기록에 대하여 의학전문가에게 그의 의학에 관한 전문적 지식이나 그 지식을 이용한 판단을 보고하게 하는 감정(鑑定) 절차를 진행하고 있다. 의료사고에 대한 감정의 결과는 전문가에 대한 참고 의견으로 증거방법의 하나에 불과하다. 그러므로 원칙적으로 법원이 그 결과에 대하여 기속되어야 하는 것은 아니지만, 법원이 의료사고의 구체적 경위를 비롯하여 의료과실과 인과관계가 존재하는지 여부에 관하여 의학적 판단인 감정결과를 온전히 배제할 수는 없다. 따라서 의료사고에 대한 분쟁에서 진료기록감정이 차지하는 비중은 높고 법원 등의 심증 형성에 중요한 영향을 미치고 있다. 본고에서는 의료사고에서 감정의 의의와 기능을 살펴본 뒤, 현행법상 진료기록감정의 양상으로 이루어지고 있는 법원에서의 진료기록감정절차와 한국의료분쟁조정중재원의 의료사고에 대한 감정절차를 각각 유형별로 고찰한다. 또한 우리나라 판례에서 진료기록감정회신에 대하여 어떠한 태도를 취하고 있는지, 외국의 제도로 일본의 경우를 살펴보아 우리나라에의 시사점을 알아보고자 한다. 특히 우리나라의 진료기록감정절차가 지니고 있는 진료기록감정회신의 공정성에 관한 문제, 진료기록감정절차의 지연으로 인한 소송의 지연에 관한 문제 등에 대한 개선점을 제시하고자 한다.

In order to resolve a dispute over a medical accident, the court is in the process of appraising the medical records for medical professionals to report their medical expertise or judgments using that knowledge. The consequences of expert opinion about a medical accident are only one of the methods of evidence as a reference. Therefore, in principle, the court should not be bound to the results, but the court, which is not a medical expert, can not completely rule out medical expert opinion as to whether there is medical malpractice and causality. Therefore, it can not be denied that the proportion of expert opinion of medical records in the dispute about medical accidents is high and it has an important influence on the judgement of the court. In this paper, we examine the significance and function of expert opinion of the medical accident, examine the appraising procedure of the medical records in the court and the appraising procedure of the medical accidents of the Korean medical dispute mediation arbitrator do. In addition, I would like to examine what kind of attitude is being taken in response to expert opinion of medical records in Korea to court, to examine the implications of the case of Japan as a foreign system, and to suggest improvement points in the expert opinion procedure of medical record filing in Korea. In particular, I would like to suggest improvements on issues such as the fairness of the expert opinion of medical records and the delays in litigation due to delays in the process of expert opinion.

In this study, the fractional cointegration approach was implemented considering long memory of the relationship between petroleum price and China’s price. Considering information on the long-run stable relationship, the error correction model was used to analyze the short-run dynamics. The frequency domain Granger causality analysis was performed to identify the sequence of variables. As a result, we can confirm the cointegration relation between the oil price and the China’s price. In general, cost side factors such as oil prices are known to have a short-run impact on prices, but the long-term relationship between oil prices and prices has been proved by the discovery of long-term memory characteristics. This suggests that the existence of long-term memory between oil prices and prices offers considerable implications for analyzing China's price response to oil price fluctuations. The adjustment process can take a considerable amount of time when an imbalance occurs due to a temporary shock. The error correction model was estimated using information on the long-run equilibrium relationship between oil prices and prices. The adjustment process took about one year, and indirect evidence of long-run memory was found. In the error-correction model, oil price fluctuations are positively correlated with price fluctuations, but their effects are relatively small compared with the long-run equilibrium relationship. As a result of the Grange causality test in the frequency domain, it can be confirmed that the oil price has causality to the wholesale price index throughout the frequency, but the wholesale price index of China does not have causality to the oil price. This reflects reality. China is expanding its influence as a major consumer in the oil market, but prices are not enough to make a significant impact on crude oil prices. On the other hand, it can be seen that oil price is a useful parameter for predicting China's wholesale price index regardless of short and long term. To ease inflationary pressures on oil price shocks, Chinese authorities will need to eliminate unnecessary price regulation and improve market structure and price delivery systems. Market - friendly economic structures and flexible price mechanisms can cushion inflation by improving the adjustment mechanism for oil price shocks.

본 연구의 목적은 프랜차이즈 시스템에서 가맹점의 성과(성공/실패)에 대한 가맹점 사업자의 귀인성향과 귀인에 따른 향후 행동의도의 특성을 확인하는데 있다. 최근 가맹본부와 가맹점 사업자 간의 갈등가능성이 증가하고 있는 상황에서 가맹점 사업자가 자신의 성과의 원인을 어떻게 인식하고 있으며 이에 따라 어떤 행동의도를 보이는가를 파악하는 것은 가맹본부에게 바람직한 가맹점 관리의 방향을 제시한다는 점에서 의미있는 주제라고 할 수 있다. 본 연구의 결론을 요약하면 다음과 같다. 첫째, 가맹점 사업자는 성과가 낮을 시에는 본인의 역량이나 노력여부보다는 가맹본부의 지원부족이 더 영향을 미치는 것으로 인식하는 것으로 나타났다. 둘째, 가맹점 성과가 낮은 상황에서는 귀인의 형태와 상관없이 가맹본부와의 관계를 회피하려는 행동의도가 강하게 나타났다. 이는 가맹점 사업자는 자신의 능력이나 노력보다는 가맹본부의 지원을 더욱 중요시하는 귀인편향에 기인하는 것으로 분석된다. 셋째, 가맹점의 성과가 높은 상황에서는 높은 성과에 기여한 요인을 더욱 강화하거나 보완하는 방향의 행동의도가 나타났다. 분석결과의 시사점은 다음과 같다. 첫째, 가맹본부는 가맹점의 성과를 최우선 과제로 삼아야 한다. 둘째, 가맹점 사업자의 귀인편향을 억제할 수 있도록 적극적인 커뮤니케이션 전략을 시행하여야 한다. 셋째, 가맹점사업자의 역량을 강화시키고 자발적인 노력을 유도할 수 있는 지원방안을 모색해야 한다.

The purposes of this paper are to propose a theoretical model of attribution and behavioral intention of franchisees and to analyze the model empirically using the survey data. This paper aims to analyze whether or not the relations of attribution and behavioral intention of franchisees is same with result of theoretical research in other field, and to analyze how and why the relations between attribution and behavioral intentions of franchisees. In this study literature reviews and empirical methods are both used; The literature reviews cover theoretical discussion on attribution theories in not only social psychology but also sales person management. Based on these theories, some hypothesis which explains the relations between attribution behavior and behavioral intentions of franchisees is proposed. Through the empirical analysis, the results attained are as follows; First, franchisees consider that support of franchisors have a more strong influence on franchisee’s performance than franchisee’s effort or ability. second, franchisees have a strong intention to avoid the franchising relationship if they obtain bad result, regardless of attribution. Third, if franchisees obtain good result, they have a strong intention to strengthen or complement the cause of good result. The limitation of this study can be summed up as follows; First, it is necessary to investigate more detail about the attribution framework of franchisee. Second, it is necessary to develop adequate measures and scales that might be used to examine the full range of attributional responses for franchisee performance and the behaviors. Therefore, to supplement this study, more objective theoretical models appropriate for franchising that can bring out the relationship between attribution and behavioral intention of franchisee must be created.

본 연구는 한국 주식시장 자료를 이용하여 금융시장 유동성과 경기변동 간의 인과관계에 대한 새로운 증거를 제시한다. 1987년 1분기부터 2013년 2분기까지 한국거래소(KRX) 유가증권시장에 상장된 주식의 일별 거래자료를 이용하여 구성한 주식시장 유동성 지표와 실질 GDP, 소비 및 투자 성장률과 실업증가율 등 실물경기지표의 분기 시계열을 분석한 결과, 유동성이 실물경기지표보다 선행하며 미래의 경기변동을 예측할 수 있음을 확인한다. 예측모형의 추정 결과, 주식시장 유동성의 개선은 향후 실물경기의 성장을, 유동성의 악화는 실물경기의 둔화를 예측하며, 다른 금융시장 변수의 통제 하에서도 예측력이 사라지지 않는다. 이 결과는 주식시장 유동성이 미래의 실물경기변동에 대하여 주식을 비롯한 여러 금융자산의 가격변수가 가지지 않은 추가적인 정보를 담고 있으며, 투자자들의 거래활동이 미래의 실물경기에 대한 기대를 바탕으로 이루어지고 있음을 시사한다. 유동성의 경기 예측력은 기업규모가 작고 배당성향이 낮은 주식에서 특히 강하게 나타나며, 유동성 척도의 선택에 따라 길게는 2년 뒤의 경기변동을 예측할 수 있다. 유동성의 실물경기 예측력은 표본 외 예측에서도 여전히 유효한 반면, 실물경기 변동의 주식시장 유동성 예측력은 통계적으로 유의하지 않다.

The world economy has experienced several historical events in which liquidity dry-ups were accompanied by real economic recessions, including the Asian crisis in the late 1990s and the global financial crisis in the late 2000s. Since then, financial market liquidity has been extensively studied and several recent empirical studies have documented evidence of time variation in liquidity and its relation to the macroeconomy (Fujimoto, 2004; Lu and Glascock, 2010; Næs, Skjeltorp, and Ødegaard, 2011). While there is a consensus about the close link between financial market liquidity and the real economy, previous studies provide conflicting views on the lead-lag relation, or causality between them. In this study, we use Korean stock market data to provide new empirical evidence that financial market liquidity has leading information on the real economy. To this end, we examine the time-series relation between stock market liquidity and the real economy using the daily data of stocks listed on the Korean Stock Exchange and quarterly macroeconomic variables over the 1987 to 2013 period. Specifically, we construct two aggregate liquidity measures at a quarterly frequency following Amihud (2002, Illiquidity and stock returns: cross-section and time-series effects, Journal of Financial Markets 5, 31-56) and Pastor and Stambaugh (2003, Liquidity risk and expected stock returns, Journal of Political Economy 111, 642-685), and we also use real GDP, real consumption, real investment and unemployment rate as proxies for the state of the real economy. Our empirical findings are as follows. First, we find that stock market liquidity varies before a change in real economy, and that liquidity has significantforecasting power for future real economic growth. The estimation results of our predictive models indicate that improved stock market liquidity predicts real economic growth, whereas deteriorating stock market liquidity predicts a slowdown in the real economy. The predictability of stock market liquidity is highly significant even after controlling for various financial market variables known to be important predictors of the real economy, such as monetary liquidity, interest rate, dividend yield, market excess returns and market volatility. This implies that stock market liquidity contains leading information not contained in other asset price predictors for future economic conditions. Second, from Granger causality tests, we find evidence that stock market liquidity causes changes in the real economy, whereas the real economic variables do not have significant forecasting power for future stock market liquidity. This result provides new evidence for conflicting views about the lead-lag relation between liquidity and the macroeconomy in the literature, and further highlights the critical role of stock market liquidity as a predictor of the real economy. Third, we analyze the effects of firm characteristics on the predictability of liquidity, and find that the liquidity of stocks with low market capitalization and low payout ratio contains more significant information about future economic conditions than that of large and high-payout-ratio firms. Given that small and low -payout-ratio stocks are more likely to be affected by a recessionary shock in the real economy than large and high-payout ratio stocks, investors may trade those stocks according to the prediction of future economic conditions, resulting in the market liquidity of those stocks being highly informative. The result implies that the predictability of stock market liquidity comes from investors’ trading activities based on rational expectations of future economic states. Finally, our results are robust for choice of liquidity measures and real economic indicators, and the out- of-sample predictability is also statistically significant. We also document that stock market liquidity can significantly forecast up to two-year-ahead economic conditions. Moreover, the predictability of liquidity is not much affected when the specific periods of the Asian crisis and the global financial crisis are excluded from the sample. Overall, our findings are consistent with flight-to-quality, the phenomenon wherein investors suddenly shift their portfolios from risky assets to safe ones during economic downturns, creating a negative shock in the liquidity of risky assets. This implies that stock market liquidity contains valuable information about future economic states not contained in other asset price variables, and highlights the role of liquidity in financial markets as a predictor of the real economy. Our study contributes to the literature on the time variation of liquidity in emerging markets by taking a closer look at the Korean economy. Although numerous studies have examined the effects of financial market liquidity on asset pricing and the macroeconomy, most of them have focused on major developed markets, including the U.S. stock market. Given that several emerging economies including Korea have suffered from a lack of liquidity during financial crises, they are suitable for investigating the relation between liquidity and economic states. In particular, empirical research on liquidity in the Korean stock market has been mainly confined to market microstructure issues. Our findings provide a new direction for future research on financial market liquidity in Korea.

Little attention has been paid to information transmission between the portfolios of large stocks and small stocks in the Korean stock market. This study investigates the return and volatility transmission mechanisms between large and small stocks in the Korea Exchange (KRX). This study also explores whether bad news in the large stock market leads to a volatility of the small stock market that is larger than the good news volatility of the large stock market. By employing the Granger causality test, we found unidirectional return transmissions from the large stocks to medium and small stocks. This evidence indicates that pat information about the large stocks has a better ability to predict the returns of the medium and small stocks in the Korean stock market. Moreover, by using the asymmetric GARCH-BEKK model, we observed the unidirectional relationship of asymmetric volatility transmission from large stocks to the medium and small stocks. This finding suggests that volatility in the medium and small stocks following a negative shock in the large stocks is larger than that following a positive shock in the large stocks.

This study aimed to identify the causality between climatic and soil variables affecting the yield of Italian ryegrass (Lolium multiflorum Lam., IRG) in the paddy field by constructing the pathways via structure equation model. The IRG data (n = 133) was collected from the National Agricultural Cooperative Federation (1992?2013). The climatic variables were accumulated temperature, growing days and precipitation amount from the weather information system of Korea Meteorological Administration, and soil variables were effective soil depth, slope, gravel content and drainage class as soil physical properties from the soil information system of Rural Development Administration. In general, IRG cultivation by the rice-rotation system in paddy field is important and unique in East Asia because it contributes to the increase of income by cultivating IRG during agricultural off-season. As a result, the seasonal effects of accumulated temperature and growing days of autumn and next spring were evident, furthermore, autumnal temperature and spring precipitation indirectly influenced yield through spring temperature. The effect of autumnal temperature, spring temperature, spring precipitation and soil physics factors were 0.62, 0.36, 0.23, and 0.16 in order (p < 0.05). Even though the relationship between soil physical and precipitation was not significant, it does not mean there was no association. Because the soil physical variables were categorical, their effects were weakly reflected even with scale adjustment by jitter transformation. We expected that this study could contribute to increasing IRG yield by presenting the causality of climatic and soil factors and could be extended to various factors.

This study aimed to assess the causality of different climate variables on the production of whole crop maize (Zea mays L.; WCM) in the central inland region of the Korea. Furthermore, the effect of these climate variables was also determined by looking at direct and indirect pathways during the stages before and after silking. The WCM metadata (n = 640) were collected from the Rural Development Administration’s reports of new variety adaptability from 1985?2011 (27 years). The climate data was collected based on year and location from the Korean Meteorology Administration’s weather information system. Causality, in this study, was defined by various cause-and-effect relationships between climatic factors, such as temperature, rainfall amount, sunshine duration, wind speed and relative humidity in the seeding to silking stage and the silking to harvesting stage. All climate variables except wind speed were different before and after the silking stage, which indicates the silking occurred during the period when the Korean season changed from spring to summer. Therefore, the structure of causality was constructed by taking account of the climate variables that were divided by the silking stage. In particular, the indirect effect of rainfall through the appropriate temperature range was different before and after the silking stage. The damage caused by heat-humidity was having effect before the silking stage while the damage caused by night-heat was not affecting WCM production. There was a large variation in soil surface temperature and rainfall before and after the silking stage. Over 350 mm of rainfall affected dry matter yield (DMY) when soil surface temperatures were less than 22℃ before the silking stage. Over 900 mm of rainfall also affected DMY when soil surface temperatures were over 27℃ after the silking stage. For the longitudinal effects of soil surface temperature and rainfall amount, less than 22℃ soil surface temperature and over 300 mm of rainfall before the silking stage affected yield through over 26℃ soil surface temperature and less than 900 mm rainfall after the silking stage, respectively.

This investigation was carried out in Liaoning, Shandong, and Shaanxi where classified most of their geological organizations into profit organizations, which means they must implement enterprise-oriented reform immediately. The valid 311 questionnaires were collected and used to verify the serial mediating model by AMOS 23.0. Results verified the crucial mediating effects of structural and psychological empowerment between external-focused organizational culture and openness for change. Adhocracy culture positively affects employees’ openness for change through three indirect paths, including one mediator and two mediators. Market culture impacts individuals’ openness for change through two indirect paths, one is through structural empowerment and another one is through two mediators. The findings provide managers in geological organizations with an empowering management practice model which could promote geological industry reform effectively.

It is getting more intensified with the competition among participating companies for global market share in major industrial fields. The situation is accelerating especially within the top 5 market share, and these include electric vehicles, semiconductors, chemicals, and shipbuilding industries. The key to the advantage over the competition within a strategic group is which company leads the innovation in the field. On-the-ground innovation refers to job-based innovation. This paper aims to analyze job unit innovation in the structure of empowerment, LMX, and job crafting. Existing studies on job crafting have suggested a causal structure based on job design in the traditional sense, and there are not many scholars who study the causal structure using a job situational model. Therefore, this paper takes an approach from the perspective of the job situation. As a result of the study, LMX showed a moderating effect on the relationship between autonomy provision and job crafting. While, in the relationship between meaing-giving and cognitive crafting, there is no significant moderating effect shown on the relationship between autonomy provision and cognitive crafting. Therefore, the results of the analysis in this study suggest that the meaning of jobs and participation in decision-making should be managed in an integrated way in structural and design areas, not just qualitative factors such as empowerment and leadership.

This study investigated the uses of causative devices in a comparable set of corpora comprised of the NS, ESL, and EFL CMC texts. An inventory of 144 devices was prepared and classified by eight syntactic categories; the occurrences of each device were examined and coded accordingly. While the overall frequency of the causative devices did not appear significantly different, substantial differences were noticed in the variety of the devices employed by the three groups. 72, 53, and 29 types out of 144 potential devices covered 100% of the causative expressions in the NS, ESL and EFL corpus respectively, indicating EFL learners' restricted repertoire of causality. The analysis of the function-content word ratio revealed the EFL group’s preference for explicitly marking the relations of the events with function words. A limited set of markers such as because, by + ~ing, because of, and so were predominantly used at the expense of other potential candidates in the EFL corpus. Complex forms of causality and global coherence of discourse were not frequently found in the EFL corpus.

Trust and perceived risk have been identified as the two primary factors affecting engagement in online transactions. However, earlier studies have conceptualized the directionality of the causal link between these two factors differently. Some researchers have conceptualized trust as an antecedent to risk, while others see it as a consequence. To resolve this issue, we develop a mutual model in which trust and perceived risk bidirectionally influence each other. We then test the ability of the mutual model to provide a more realistic explanation of buyers’ decision-making than previously offered one-way models. We find a nearly equal effect of trust and perceived risk, which means that the bidirectional model should be more preferred by researchers than others. Based on these empirical findings, we discuss the implications of our research, including the appropriateness of our research question and several paradoxes identified in prior studies.