Earticle

The purpose of this study was to develop a system dynamics model to dynamically analyze the effects of heatwaves and apply it to real-world situations. For this purpose, first, the influencing factors of heatwaves were identified through previous studies. Second, a dynamic heatwave model was developed. Third, time series data from 2009 to 2018 were constructed, and the model was applied to Seoul. In this step, scenarios based on the budget were created, and the intensity of heatwaves resulting from changes in variables were measured. The results are as follows: First, the policy factors of heatwaves were classified into the cause and effect of the heatwave group, heatwave mitigation policy group, and heatwave adaptation group, forming a feedback structure. Second, it was observed that a 20% increase in budgets starting from 2040 led to temperature reductions of 1.57°C for the eco-friendly vehicle policy, 0.29°C for the high-efficiency air conditioners policy, 0.06°C for heatwave shelters, and 0.77°C for the creation of green space policy. Third, increasing the budget for heatwave shelters was found to be highly effective in reducing the number of people with heat-related illnesses.

대형화⋅복잡화된 도시에서 화재 발생시, 골든타임 내 출동하지 못하면 대규모 인명 및 재산 피해가 발생하게 된다. 소방차 출동 시 불법주정차로 인해 골든타임 내 도착이 어렵고 이를 개선하기 위해 선 강제처분이 필요하다. 본 연구는 소방차 출동 시 강제처분 수행에 대한 효과를 분석하였다. 불법 주정차량은 도로에 영향을 끼쳐 소방차 진입이 어렵다는 가정 하에 연구를 진행하였고, System Dynamics-GIS 모델을 활용하여 영향을 분석하였다. GIS에서 4m 도로 제거 여부에 따라 2개의 시나 리오로 네트워크를 분석하였고, System Dynamics 모델링 후 네트워크 분석 결과를 입력하여 강제처 분 전후의 소방차 출동거리를 분석하였다. 이를 바탕으로 강제처분 전후의 거리에 따른 피해량 변화 (△D)를 도출하고 GIS상에서 지도로 표출하였다. 분석 결과에 따르면 불법주정차가 있을시 출동거 리가 평균 28.45% 증가하였고, 강제처분 수행 시 출동거리가 평균 22.15% 감소하였다. 이를 반영한 피해량은 약 10%로 정도가 감소되었다. 본 연구의 결과로 소방관의 강제처분 수행력 고취 및 세부지 침 수립의 근거자료로 사용될 수 있다.

If a fire in a large and complex city cannot be suppressed in time, large-scale life and property damage may occur. This study analyzed the effect of compulsory execution on the dispatch of a fire truck. The assumption was that illegal parking affects roads and makes it challenging for fire trucks to enter, and the effects were analyzed using System Dynamics-GIS model. The network was analyzed according to whether or not illegal parking was performed. After modeling the system dynamics, the network analysis results were input to analyze the dispatch distance of fire trucks before and after the forced disposal. Based on this, the change in damage amount(△D) according to the distance before and after the compulsory execution was derived and expressed as a map on GIS. According to the results, the dispatch distance 28.45% increased when illegal parking cars were present, while the dispatch distance and damage amount 22.15%, 10% decreased when compulsory execution was carried out. The results of this study can serve as a basis for inspiring the performance of compulsory execution and establishing detailed guidelines.

전 세계적으로 온도상승이 가속화 되는 가운데, 우리나라 서울의 경우 면적당 무더위쉼터 비율이 전국 1위인데도 불구하고 여름철 온열 환자 수는 상승세에 있다. 본 연구는 서울시 폭염 취약계층의 무더위쉼터 이동성 확보를 위해 System Dynamics-GIS 모델을 이용하여 셔틀 운영의 효과를 분석하 였다. 모델링에 사용된 공간정보는 서울시 동별 취약계층 인구, 무더위쉼터(수용인원, 위치), DEM 데이터이며 GIS의 공간분석을 통해 모델링에 최적화된 형태로 가공하여 System Dynamics에 입력하 였다. 입력된 공간정보를 기반으로 Stock Flow 모델을 설계하여 취약계층의 대피율에 따라 폭염 노출률(Exposure Rate)이 감소하는 추세를 시계열적으로 분석하였다. 시나리오는 셔틀을 운행하지 않을 경우(Scenario 0), 운행할 경우(Scenario 1), 운행과 함께 효율적인 셔틀 분배를 수행할 경우 (Scenario 2)로 구성하였고, 각각의 취약계층 폭염 노출률은 83.5%, 74%, 59.58%로 나타났다. 셔틀 운영에 의한 취약계층의 폭염 노출률은 최대 23.92% 수치만큼 감소하였으며, 해당 결과는 시 단위로 셔틀 운영 관련 정책 수립 시 기초자료로 활용될 것으로 기대된다.

Amid the accelerating rise in temperature worldwide, the number of summer heat patients continues to increase despite the nation's No. 1 rank in terms of ratio of heat shelters per area in Seoul. This study analyzed the effect of shuttle operations using the System Dynamics-GIS model to secure the mobility of cooling shelters for the vulnerable population in Seoul. To input into the System Dynamics model, spatial information consisting of the vulnerable population for each Dong in Seoul, cooling shelter (capacity, location), and DEM data were analyzed in GIS. By designing a stock-flow model based on the spatial input information, the pattern of decrease of the heat wave exposure rate according to the evacuation rate of the vulnerable was analyzed in time series. The scenarios consisted of not operating a shuttle bus (Scenario 0), operating a shuttle bus (Scenario 1), and efficient shuttle distribution with the operation (Scenario 2). The heat wave exposure rates of each scenario were 83.5%, 74%, and 59.58%. The heat wave exposure rate of the vulnerable group due to shuttle operations has decreased by as much as 23.92%, and this study’s results can serve as primary data when establishing policies related to shuttle operations.

수학모형의 한 유형인 구획모형은 전염병의 확산처럼 순차적인 이벤트나 프로세스로 구성된 동적 시스템의 변화를 분석하는 데 폭넓게 활용되어 왔다. 구획모형은 상자와 화살표로 표현되는 구획과 구획 간 관계로 구성된다. 이러한 원리는 stock과 flow로 구성되는 시스템다이내믹스(SD)의 모델링 원리와 비슷하다. 두 모형 모두 미분방정식을 이용하여 구조화된다. 이와 같은 두 모형 간 변환 가능성을 이용하여 국내 MERS 전염의 특징을 분석한 최근 연구의 SEIR 참조모형을 SD 관점에서 해석·변환한다. 변환된 SEIR 모형(Model 2)은 참조모형(Model 1)의 재현 결과와 비교하여 동일한 시뮬레이션 결과를 나타내었다. 본 연구는 전염병 구획모형의 구축에 도식과 미분방정식을 이용한 SD 방법론의 활용에 대한 인사이트를 제공하며, 변환된 SD 모형은 다른 전염병을 위한 참조모형으로 활용 가능하다.

Compartment models, a type of mathematical model, have been widely applied to characterize the changes in a dynamic system with sequential events or processes, such as the spread of an epidemic disease. A compartment model comprises compartments, and the relations between compartments are depicted as boxes and arrows. This principle is similar to that of the system dynamics (SD) approach to constructing a simulation model with stocks and flows. In addition, both models are structured using differential equations. With this mutual and translatable principle, this study, in terms of SD, translates a reference SEIR model, which was developed in a recent study to characterize the transmission of the Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) in South Korea. Compared to the replicated result of the reference SEIR model (Model 1), the translated SEIR model (Model 2) demonstrates the same simulation result (error=0). The results of this study provide insight into the application of SD relative to constructing an epidemic compartment model using schematization and differential equations. The translated SD artifact can be used as a reference model for other epidemic diseases.

지식이 수익 창출의 근원이 되는 첨단 기업들은 소속 구성원의 경험들을 조직의 지식으로 변환하고, 보존하여 구성원 상호간에 축적된 지식을 공유 및 전이할 수 있도록 하기 위한 노력을 게을리 해서는 안 된다. 지식 경영의 중요성을 강조하는 많은 선행연구들은 이러한 활동이 조직 학습을 가속화시키며, 경쟁력을 강화시킴으로써 시장 변화에 대한 대응능력을 강화시킬 수 있음을 강조하고 있다. 그러나 구성원들의 가용 시간은 곧 생산을 위한 투입 요소이기 때문에 지식관리활동은 단기적으로 조직 구성원들이 수익 창출을 위한 업무 수행 시간을 할애해야 하기 때문에 비용으로 인식되기 쉽다. 이러한 이유로 경영자는 장기적 조직 발전과 단기적 수익의 딜레마 속에서 기업의 경영전략과 재원 배분정책을 수립해야 하지만 이를 종합적인 시각에서 이해하고자 하는 연구는 그리 많지 않았다. 이러한 접근에서 본 연구는 프로젝트 단위의 비즈니스를 수행하는 SI 업체를 사례 모델로 선정하여 비재무적 자산인 지식을 효과적으로 관리하고 이를 통하여 재무적 성과를 극대화하기 위한 전략 수립의 기초가 되는 시스템 다이내믹스 모델을 구축하였다. 이러한 시도는 경영자를 비롯한 의사결정자들이 지식의 동태성과 이에 영향을 미치는 여러 영향요인들에 대한 단선적인 이해를 벗어나 종합적인 견지에서 기업이 보유한 지식의 구조와 행태를 이해하는데 도움이 될 것이며 이를 통하여 기업의 지식관리 전략 수립의 기초를 제공해줄 것으로 기대된다.

IT companies make a lot of effort to share and utilize the experiences of their members and transform them into organizational knowledge as a competitive core. However they face a dilemma in that they have to spend time and financial resources to perform activities around knowledge management for the long-term gains, while carrying at field-work for making short-term profits. As an initial attempt to tackle this managerial problem, this paper tries to investigate the mechanism of knowledge management in a small IT company in Korea with a synthetic view-point using system dynamics simulation model. It depicts the dynamic behaviors of knowledge management and presents some findings of political leverage. Although this model has to be further replenished, the scheme for the dynamism of knowledge management and the findings presented in the paper could be useful for the decision makers, especially of knowledge-intensive organizations.

본 연구는 기존의 버스 운영계획모형을 시스템 다이나믹스(System Dynamics : SD) 관점에서 검토하는 것을 주된 목적으로 하고 있다. 결정변수들 간의 선형적 관계에 기초한 교툥비용모델에 SD관점을 적용하여 순환적 관계로의 재구성을 시도하였으며, 그 결과물로 최적배차간격모형의 인과지도(Causal Loop Diagram)을 제시하였다. 또한 계량적 시뮬레이션이 가능한 저유량 인과지도(Stock & Flow Diagram)을 작성하여 시뮬레이션 결과의 의미를 논의하였다. 연구결과, 시뮬레이션에 적용한 수식이 기존의 교통비용모형에 토대를 두고 있기 때문에 시뮬레이션 결과가 기존의 연구와 큰 차이를 보이지 않았다.

This paper aims mainly to reinterpretate Optimal Bus Scheduling Model by applying System Dynamics Perspective. Traditionally, the study regarding Optimal Bus Scheduling Model stems on the linear relationshp. However, this paper attempted to convert linear relationship based Optimal Bus Scheduling Model to causal loop perspective based Model. In result, the paper present Casual Loop Diagram for Optimal Bus Scheduling Model. Furthermore, the paper also ran a simulation based on Stock & Flow Diagram for Optimal Bus Scheduling Model. The outcome was not much different from the linear relationship based Model due to the similarity of the equation applied on two models.

우리나라의 항공여객 운송실적은 지속적으로 성장하고 있다. 본 연구에서는 우리나라 항공여객 운송 실적의 성장추 이를 확인하기 위해 시스템다이내믹스를 활용한 항공여객 수요예측 모델을 제안하였다. 항공여객 수요예측은 항공여객 운 송수요를 종속변수로 하고 국제항공유가, GDP 및 환율을 외생변수로 하여 시뮬레이션 하였다. 모델의 정확도는 MAPE와 R2를 이용하여 검증하였고 검증 결과 제안된 예측모델은 정확한 예측모델로 확인되었다. 수요예측 결과 국적 항공사의 항공 여객 처리실적은 앞으로도 지속적으로 성장하며, 특히 저비용항공사의 수송 분담률이 크게 증가할 것으로 예측되었다. 향후 한국에 진출해 있는 외국계 항공사들의 내국인 처리 실적 및 국적항공사들의 Alliance 체결에 따른 실적 등을 추가하여 보다 정확한 항공여객 수요예측 모델을 제안하고자 한다.

Korea's air passenger traffic has been growing steadily. In this paper, we propose a forecasting model of air passenger demand to ascertain the growth trend of air passenger transportation performance in Korea. We conducted a simulation based on System Dynamics with the demand as a dependent variable, and international oil prices, GDP and exchange rates as exogenous variables. The accuracy of the model was verified using MAPE and R2, and the proposed prediction model was verified as an accurate prediction model. As a result of the demand forecast, it is predicted that the air passenger demand in Korea will continue to grow, and the share of low cost carriers will increase sharply. The addition of the Korean transportation performance of foreign carriers in Korea and the transportation performance of Korean passengers due to the alliance of airlines will provide a more accurate forecast of passenger demand.

Purpose: The objective of this study was to determine the cause-effect and dynamic change mechanism among factors that affect calculation of the nursing workforce in the hemodialysis room and to establish a system dynamics model and create a strategic simulation to be used to increase efficiency in the clinical situation. Method: The system dynamics approach was adapted to build a simulation model for calculating the nursing workforce. The model was built using Vensim 5.0b DSS. Results: The results were as follows for Scenario A: The highest level of nursing service quality, patient satisfaction, and nurse satisfaction, and the lowest level of turnover intention is maintained when the ratio of patients to nurse is 3.5:1 compared to all other situations. Scenario B: At the ratio of patients to nurse 4.0:1 nursing service quality, patient satisfaction, and nurse satisfaction dropped slightly, and turnover intention also rose slightly. However with time the results showed improvement. Conclusion: In terms of economic efficiency in the hemodialysis room, the ratio of patients to nurse for the best nursing workforce should not exceed 4.0:1.

본 연구에서는 지속가능한 도시·건축의 개발을 위한 정책입안을 지원하는 도시환경부하 장기예측 시뮬레이터 개발을 최종 목표로, 도시를 구성하는 여러 섹터 중에서 주택섹터 모델을 개발하고 모델의 검증을 실시하였다 . 본 연구에서는 부산광역시를 대상으로 연구를 진행하였다. 본 연구의 결과는 다음과 같다. 주택섹터를 구성 하는 주택의 유형은 주택의 에너지 소비경향을 고려하여 단독주택, 다세대주택, 아파트로 분류하였다. 주택섹 터 모델은 주택수가 착공수와 해체수에 의해 변화하는 모델로서 작성하였으며, 주택섹터 모델에 영향을 미치 는 인자를 수요, 지역경제, 집적을 기반으로, 통계자료수집 및 문헌 등의 기존 연구를 토대로 제시하였다. 또 한, 시뮬레이터에 적용하기 위하여 각 영향인자를 통계자료를 이용하여 매력승수로 나타내었다. 부산지역의 25년간 시뮬레이션을 실시하여 통계치와 비교한 결과, 주택유형별 스톡총수 모델의 오차율은 단독주택 1.8%, 다세대주택 1.1%, 아파트 4.5%로 나타났다. 모든 주택 유형의 결과값이 10% 이내에 들어가므로 본 모델은 매 우정확한 것으로 판단된다. 따라서 본 연구에서 도출된 모델을 활용하여 부산시 주택섹터의 장기스톡 변화 및 이에 따른 환경부하 예측이 가능할 것으로 판단된다.

This study developed a long-term prediction model in housing sector using system dynamics and verify the model with final goal of simulator development for sustainable environment. The study was conducted for Busan metropolitan city. The results were as follows. Housing type was classified into detached house, multiplex house and apartment house considering energy consumption tendency of housing. Housing sector model was made as a changable model according to construction rate and demolition rate and effective parameters such as demand, regional economy and agglomeration were suggested based on existing studies and Busan statistics. Also, the attractiveness multiplier was derived with each parameter by using statistics for applying to a simulator. As a result of the comparisons with simulation and statistics, mean absolute percentage error of detached house, multiplex house and apartment house was 1.8%, 1.1% and 4.5% respectively. The models was suggested to have accuracy within error rate 10%. Thus, this model would well performed prediction for long-term stock change and environmental load in housing sector of Busan.

The article employed System Dynamics model as basic analytical framework to make study on the external equity cooperation influences the stability of airline strategic alliance. Combined with the implementation mechanism of the alliance’s dynamic stability, the paper analyzed how the equity cooperation made an impact on the stability of airline strategic alliance, ranging from resource dimensions, risk dimensions to social capital dimensions. What’s more, the System Dynamics model, relating to the airline strategic alliance stability, has been established. By simulating the model, the paper made study on the stability of airline strategic alliance influenced by external equity cooperation. The simulation results show that the impact of external equity cooperation was closely relevant with the proportion of shareholding, the factor that the willingness of alliance members continued to invest resources in the alliance and the tightness of participating in the cooperation of the alliance.

Based on the lumped parameter theory and the gear transmission system’s engagement theory,a nonlinear dynamics model of the face gear transmission system is established, which includes time-varying mesh stiffness, comprehensive transmission error, mesh damping and tooth flash temperature;To solve and analyze the model,it can be found that the tooth flank’s maximum instantaneous temperature will be changed significantly when the face gear system is into engagement and out of engagement,and the tooth flank’s relative velocity direction will change near the high and middle range of the tooth.With the change of the gear parameters,the temperature also changes. It will provide a theoretical basis for the study of the tooth surface gluing problem, gears meshing thermal stress and other issues.

In order to assist in the reverse recovery decision of emergency logistics in sudden natural disasters, this paper conducts the system modeling on the reverse recovery of reusable materials in several disaster areas from the perspective of system dynamics under the principle of rescue satisfaction preference. Through the comprehensive analysis of material demand of disaster areas, the occupancy of resources in reverse recovery and other factors, it establishes the function relation between the recovery frequency and rescue satisfaction, and simulates the system model with the system dynamics software Vensim. Finally, the effectiveness and practicability of the model is proved by an example, based on which the impact of transportation resource change on rescue satisfaction is analyzed. Based on the above research conclusion, this paper provides the decision support and countermeasure for the emergency reverse logistics in China.

Economic benefit analysis of distributed generation (DG) is helpful for the formulation and adjustment of the DG industry policy, and the dynamic visual simulation model couldimprove the accuracy in decision making. This paper first reviewed the domestic and foreign research status of distributed generation(DG）economic benefit, then analysed the direct benefits, indirect benefits and the costs of DG through the cost-benefit master model of DG set up by System Dynamics method. Meanwhile, each cost-benefit sub model is also provided. Finally simulation for 5 MW photovoltaic power station is carried out and its costs and benefits are presented. The validity of the model was verified for the results conforming to the anticipated target, the results also showed that subsidies had significant effects on the benefits of DG and the indirect benefits, especially carbon reduction benefit are obvious.

The main purpose of this paper is to analyze the effect of the economical relationship between China and Korea. In order to accomplish this goal, the dynamic pattern of international trade, so called international dynamic general equilibrium between Korea and China has to be constructed through the system dynamics approach. Based on macroeconomic data (Korea's GDP and China's GDP and Korea's export and import with China) from 1992 to 2014, quantitative analysis is done, and the long term effect of China's economy on the Korea's economy predicted. This research predicts the explicit deterioration of China's growth rate. Therefore, it is predictable that Korea's economy will be faced an economic difficulty because Korea's export relies heavily on the China's economy. Therefore, it is very important for Korea’s economy to have the right shield policy against the risk from China.

According to the system dynamics model of this study, if there is a significant network effect on vehicle operating costs, it is difficult to achieve the shift to AFV even in the long term without a policy intervention because the car market is locked in to the current structure. Network effect can be caused by an increasing return to scale in fuel supply sector as well as in maintenance service sector. It is also related to the fact that the reliability and awareness of consumers on new products increases with the growth of the market share of the new products. There are several possible policy options to break the 'locked in' structure of car market, such as subsidy on vehicle price (capital cost), subsidy on fuel (operating cost) and niche management policy. Combined policy options would be more effective than relying on a single policy option to increase the market share of AFV.

식량(食糧) 곡물(穀物)의 안정적(安定的) 생산(生産)은 국가적(國家的)으로 큰 비중(比重)을 차지하는 문제(問題)로서 식량생산계획(食糧生産計劃) 수립(樹立)과 정책결정(政策決定)을 위해서는 향후(向後)의 식량생산(食糧生産)에 영향(影響)을 미칠 제요인(諸要因)들의 유기적(有機的)인 관계(關係)와 시간(時間)에 따른 변이(變異)를 감안(勘案)한 '동적(動的)인 고찰(考察)'이 필요(必要)하다. 본(本) 연구(硏究)에서는 식량생산(食糧生産)에 영향(影響)을 미치는 제요인(諸要因) 즉 농촌인구(農村人口), 경작규모(耕作規模), 농업투자(農業投資), 연구(硏究) 및 기술개발투자(技術開發投資), 농업기술수준(農業技術水準), 농가소득(農家所得), 인구동향(人口動向), 기후변이(氣候變異)등을 고려(考慮)하여 식량생산동향(食糧生産動向)을 예측(豫測)하기 위한 system dynamic model을 작성(作成)하였고 이를 통(通)하여 2008년(年)까지의 동향(動向)을 추정(推定)하였다. 향후인구(向後人口), GNP, 기술수준(技術水準)등은 시간(時間)이 경과(經過)함에 따라 증가(增加) 할것이나 경작면적(耕作面積)은 농촌인구(農村人口)의 유출증가(流出增加) 추세(趨勢)에 따라 점점 감소(減少)할 것으로 추정(推定)되었다. 또한 농재인구(農材人口)는 농촌인구(農村人口) 유출(流出), 유입(流入)의 지표(指標)로 삼은 Income Ratio의 변이(變異)에 따라 본(本) Simulation Model의 기준년도(基準年度)인 1978년(年)부터 1983년(年)까지는 감소추세(減少趨勢)를 보이다가 이후(以後)부터 2006년경(年傾)까지는 증가(增加) 추세(趨勢)를 보일 것으로 추정(推定)되었다. 식량생산량(食糧生産量)은 경작면적(耕作面積)의 감소율증가(減少率增加)에도 불구(不拘)하고 기술수준(技術水準)이 향상(向上)됨에 따라 변화(變化)가 없을 것으로 예상되나 기후(氣候)의 변이(變異)에 크게 영향(影響)을 받게 될 것으로 예측(豫測)되었다. 따라서 식량(食糧)의 절대량(絶對量) 확보(確保)를 위해서는 경작면적(耕作面積)의 확대(擴大), 농업기계화(農業機械化)를 통(通)한 부족노동력(不足勞動力)의 대체(代替), 농업기술(農業技術)의 연구(硏究) 개발(開發)과 기상변이(氣象變異)에 대처(對處)하기 위한 용수(用水) 및 관개시설(灌漑施設)의 확충(擴充)등 지속적(持續的)이며 장기적(長期的)인 대책(對策)이 강구(講究)되어야 할 것으로 사료(思料)되었다.

A system dynamic model was developed to predict food grain production under the dynamic consideration of the production circumstance and inputs such as farm population, investment on agriculture, arable land, extensive technology and weather. By using the model, the variation of the food grain production from 1978 to 2008 was examined. The results of the model output says it is desirable that the persistent and long-term program should be studied to get necessary food grain production under the variational inputs and circumstances.

The purpose of this study is to develop a system dynamics model for the assessment of the organizational and human factors in a nuclear power plant which contribute to nuclear safety. Previous studies can be classified into two major approaches. One is the engineering approach using tools such as ergonomics and Probability Safety Assessment (PSA). The other is the socio-psychology approach. Both have contributed to find organizational and human factors and to present guidelines to lessen human error in plants. However, since these approaches assume that the relationship among factors is independent they do not explain the interactions among the factors or variables in Nuclear Power Plants. To overcome these restrictions, a system dynamics model, which can show cause and effect relationships among factors and quantify the organizational and human factors, has been developed. Handling variables such as the degree of leadership, the number of employees, and workload in each department, users can simulate various situations in nuclear power plant organization. Through simulation, users can get insights to improve safety in plants and to find managerial tools in both organizational and human factors.

The recent technological and industrial revolution dictates a new approach in constructing Korean Information Infrastructure. Lacking past data on the newly emerging markets, econometrics methodologies cannot accurately forecast future path of advanced networks, let alone dynamic impacts of public policies. In this paper, we have built a system dynamics model of the Korean Information Infrastructure and simulated diverse policy measures including market integration and government initiative in investment for experimenting their effectiveness. The most counterintuitive result of our research is that the market integration policy will facilitate CATV networks at an early stage until the year 2010, but will result in a diminished market size in the long run. With the system dynamics approach, we can enhance our understanding of the complex policy systems and get valuable insights through learning by modeling and simulation.

Using GIS and socio-economical data the relationship between human activities and global environmental change Is Analysed from the view point of food productivity and CO2 emission. Under the assumption that the population problem, the food problem and global warming due to energy consumption can be stabilized through managing land use, impacts of human activities such as consumption of food, energy and timber on global environment changes, and global population capacity are Analysed using developed system dynamics model in the research. In the model the world is divided into two groups: OECD countries and the others. Used global land use data set Is land cover map derived from satellite data, and potential distribution of arable land is estimated by the method of Clamor and Solomon which takes into consideration spatial distribution of climate data such as precipitation and evapotranspiration. In addition, impacts of CO2 emission from human activities on food production through global warming are included in the model as a feedback. The results of the analysis for BaU scenario and Toronto Conference scenario are similar to the results of existing models. From the result of this study, the human habitability in 2020 is 8 billion people, and CO2 emission in 2020 based on BaU Scenario and on Toronto Scenario is 1.7 and 1.2 times more than the 1986's respectively. Improving spatial resolution of the model by using global data to distribute the environmental variables and sauce-economical indices is left for further studies.

본 논문은 최근 다양한 사회 분야에 있어서 IT 기술이 적용되는 과정을 SD 모델링 방식을 사용하여 연구한 경험과 발견을 서술하고자 한다. 모델의 초기 단계에서 우리는 다양한 사회 분야마다 다른 SD 모델을 만들 것이냐 아니면 기본적으로 유사한 모델 구조를 취할 것이냐를 선택해야 했다. 사회 분야마다 다른 구조의 SD 모델을 만들면, 상호간의 구조와 시뮬레이션 결과를 비교하기 어렵다. 하지만 상호 모델 구조를 유사하게 구축하려고 하니, 서로 다른 모델링 팀들간의 의사소통에 노력과 시간 소비가 지나치게 커져 갔다. 이러한 어려움을 극복하기 위하여 본 연구에서는 시스템 다이내믹스 모델링에도 시스템 사고의 원형적 피드백 루프에서와 같은 원형적 SD 모델을 만들고, 이를 사회 각 분야에 적용하는 방식을 취하고자 하였다. 먼저 최근 IT 기술 발전을 이끌어 가는 핵심적인 요소로서 클라우드 컴퓨팅, 스마트 기기, 사물 인터넷을 선정하고 이들간의 상호 관계성을 표현하는 SD 모델을 만들었다. 이를 원형(archetype)으로 하여, 교육, 의료, 원격 근무 등 사회 각 분야의 IT 확산 과정에 적용하여 모델링을 하고 시뮬레이션을 하여 상호 비교하면서 정책 시사점을 논의할 수 있었다. 본 논문에서는 이 중에서 원격 근무(smart work)에 관한 적용 사례를 제시함으로써, SD 모델링에 있어서 원형적 접근 방법의 가능성을 탐색한다.