Earticle

고층건물의 기둥축소량해석을 하는 주된 목적은 시공중 수직부재간 부등축소량을 보정하는 것이다. 특히 SRC기둥의 길이 조정에 의한 보정시 공장에서 선작업을 하기 때문에 일정범위를 초과하는 과대 또는 과소 보정을 하지 않기 위한 조치를 해야 한다. 이 논문에서는 37층 고층건물을 대상으로 하여 SRC기둥의 축소량에 대한 보정 및 재보정 사례를 소개하고 확률론적으로 해석한 결과를 계측 결과와 비교․분석한다. 이를 통하여, 신뢰성기법을 활용한 합성부재인 SRC기둥에 대한 보정법을 제시하고자 한다. 본 연구에서 제시한 SRC기둥의 확률해석법을 이용하여 축소량의 신뢰구간별 상하한치를 제시할 수 있으며 초기 및 시공단계별 보정값을 제시할 때 과대 및 과소 보정을 방지하는데 활용할 수 있다.

The main purpose in calculating predicted column shortening of high-rise buildings is to compensate for the differential length changes during construction. In this paper, the compensation and re-compensation method of column shortening is introduced for SRC columns in 37-story high-rise building. The probabilistic column shortenings are compared with the actual shortenings by field measurement and the compensation method of SRC columns using reliability analysis is suggested. In the probabilistic analysis of SRC columns, the shortenings can be presented with the upper and lower values of confidence level. The suggested method can be applied for preventing from overestimating and underestimating of compensation values of initial and under construction stage.

Advanced Air Mobility (AAM) systems rely on high-frequency operations of electric vertical take-off and landing (eVTOL) aircraft, making the performance of ground energy infrastructure a critical factor for overall system efficiency and reliability. In particular, battery swapping stations function as service systems in which multiple aircraft arrivals share limited resources, inevitably leading to processing delays under stochastic demand conditions. Previous studies have primarily focused on optimization-based scheduling and simulation-driven performance evaluation. However, the probabilistic mechanisms governing delay generation and operational stability in battery swapping systems have not been sufficiently explored. This study presents a probabilistic operational analysis of battery swapping stations in AAM using queueing theory. The system is modeled as a multi-server queueing system with stochastic arrival and service processes, and key performance metrics—including system utilization, average waiting time, and delay probability are analytically derived. Furthermore, delay behavior is examined not only in terms of average values but also through probabilistic distributions and service-level-based performance criteria. To validate the proposed analytical framework, MATLAB-based discrete-event simulations are conducted under various operational scenarios, including different arrival rates and service time variability conditions. The results indicate that stochastic characteristics significantly influence delay behavior and system stability, particularly under peak demand conditions. The proposed approach provides a theoretical foundation for understanding delay dynamics in AAM battery swapping operations and offers practical insights for designing stable and efficient ground infrastructure systems.

This study concerns the prediction of shear capacity, as governed by concrete breakout failure, concrete pryout failure, and steel failure, and of single anchors located close to free edge and located far from a free edge and installed in untracked, unreinforced concrete. For this purpose, the methods to evaluate the shear capacity of the single anchors in concrete are summarized, and the experimental data are compared with shear strengths using the two current methods: the ACI 349-90 and concrete capacity design methods. Based on the results of the experiments, the constant 0.568 in the steel strength equation of a wedge anchor was determined from test data at 5% fractile probability. In terms of the CCD method, a normalization coefficient of 0.659 is appropriate for single near-edge anchors loaded in shear.

This paper presents an evaluation of the tensile strength of an expansion anchor whose anchorage design can cause a fracture on concrete. Tests of heavy-duty anchors and wedge anchors, domestically manufactured and installed in a plain concrete member, were conducted to test the effects of embedment depth and edge distance. A design of post-installed steel anchors termed as the Concrete Capacity Design (CCD) approach, is presented. This approach is compared to the well-known provision, ACI 349-90. The two methods are compared in terms of their effectiveness in predicting the concrete fracture load of an expansion anchor in plain concrete under static loading for important applications. In this study, the concrete tension capacity of fastenings with heavy-duty anchors and wedge anchors in plain concrete predicted by ACI 349-90 and the CCD method were compared with the results of the tests. Based on the results of the experiments, for the CCD method, a normalization coefficient of 10.5 is appropriate for the nominal concrete breakout strength of an anchor or group of anchors in tension.

Hazard analysis identifies probability to hazard occurrence and its potential impact on business processes operated in organizations. This paper illustrates a quantitative approach of hazard analysis of information systems by measuring the degree of hazard to information systems using probabilistic risk analysis and activity based costing technique. Specifically the research model projects probability of occurrence by PRA and economic loss by ABC under each identified hazard. To verify the model, each computerized subsystem which is called a business process and hazards occurred on information systems are gathered through one private organization. The loss impact of a hazard occurrence is produced by multiplying probability by the economic loss.

역산모델링의 수치적 효율성 향상을 위해서 본 연구에서는 전위모델로 유선시뮬레이션 기법을 사용하였다. 최적화 과정에서는 저류층 변수의 변화에 대한 민감도분석을 수행하여, 이를 확률적으로 모델링하였다. 이로부터 얻은 누적확률함수는 유동변수 교란의 지표로 사용된다. 다양한 참조필드에 적용해 본 결과 개발한 기법들은 역산모델링의 효율성을 높일 수 있다. 확률적 민감도분석을 통해 추계학적 필드생성 과정에서 동적자료 관측값을 고려한 교란을 주어 샘플링이 되지 않은 지역에서 이상값들의 분포를 찾아낼 수 있었다. 이를 바탕으로 주어진 정적자료가 필드의 공간분포를 대표하지 못하거나 동적자료 관측값을 반영하지 못하는 경우에도 역산모델링을 통해 물성분포를 신뢰성 있게 파악할 수 있다.

One of the challenging topics in inverse modeling is numerical efficiency. For that, two techniques are combined in this study. As a forward model, streamline simulation technique is used. A probabilistic sensitivity analysis is proposed in the optimization procedure. From the sensitivity of the flow variables on the objective function, cumulative probability distribution functions (CDFs) are obtained. The CDFs are used to generate input flow variable fields. From the applications to various synthetic field cases, we conclude that the developed scheme improves the efficiency in inverse problems. The probabilistic sensitivity analysis makes it possible to generate the flow variable fields with consideration of the observed dynamic data. Reliable optimized results are also obtained efficiently by finding the hidden abnormal values although given samples poorly represent the characteristics of the reference field.

고유가 지속과 생산성 증대 기술의 향상으로 인해 북미를 중심으로 셰일가스의 개발이 이루어지고있다. 이 연구에서는 Barnett shale의 일부 생산정 자료로 간편하게 미래의 생산량을 예측할 수 있는 생산감퇴곡선분석법을 이용하여 궁극가채량을 추정하였으며, 초기 생산거동의 변화가 큰 셰일가스의 불확실성을 고려하고자 생산량 예측 시 대표적인 확률론적 기법인 몬테카를로 시뮬레이션을 적용하였다. 생산감퇴곡선분석법 중일반적으로 사용되는 Arps의 쌍곡선(hyperbolic)함수와 비교적 최근에 제시되어 셰일가스전에 적용 가능한Stretched Exponential Production Decline(SEPD) 모델에 몬테카를로 시뮬레이션을 적용함으로써 도출된 궁극가채량 값을 비교 및 분석하였으며, 확률론적인 예측 결과를 통해 셰일가스 생산 시 나타나는 생산거동의 불확실성을 고려할 수 있었다.

Due to the sustained high oil prices and improved production technologies, shale gas developmentgains a great attention. In this study, decline curve analysis(DCA) which is easy to predict the future productionusing production history, is utilized to forecast estimated ultimate recovery(EUR) in Barnett shale. Monte Carlosimulation representing probabilistic method is also utilized to consider the uncertainty of initial large productionbehavior in shale gas play. Monte Carlo simulation is applied to both Arps hyperbolic decline used as conventionalDCA and Stretched Exponential Production Decline(SEPD) presented for forecasting production rate in shale gasplay recently. As a result, the probabilistic EUR is calculated and it is possible to consider the uncertainty ofproduction behavior in shale gas play.

이 연구에서는 토착 문화심리학을 토대로 사고와 안전에 대한 확률론적인 시각과 결정론적인 시각을 비교 분석하였다. 한국뿐만 아니라 대부분의 선진국이나 개발도상국에서 사고로 인한 사망과 재해는 예방이 가능하다. 이 연구의 첫 번째 부분에서는 사회과학과 응용과학에서 채택되어온 선형의 결정론적인 모형의 한계에 대해 설명하였다. 가정 직장과 사회에서 발생하는 사고와 안전의 확률론적인 속성에 대한 이해를 위해, 토착 문화심리학에서 주장되어온 상호작용 모형이 제안되었다. 두 번째로는 사고와 안전에 관련된 요소들을 검토하였다. 세 번째로는 한국사회에서 사고를 예방하고 안전을 증진하기 위해 확률론적 모형의 활용에 대해 설명하였다.

This paper provides a comparative analysis of the probabilistic versus deterministic view of accident and safety using the indigenous and cultural perspectives. Death and injury due to accidents is the leading cause of preventable death in most countries, including Korea. The first part of this paper delineates the limitation of the linear, deterministic model that has been adopted in social and applied sciences. The transactional model, advocated by indigenous psychology, is provided to understand the probabilistic nature of accident and safety at home, in the workplace and in society. Second, factors related to accidents and safety are reviewed. Third, application of the probabilistic model for preventing accidents and promoting safety in Korea is outlined.

공개키 암호시스템에서는 보안성을 높이기 위해 매우 큰 소수나 안전소수를 사용한다. 하지만 큰 소수를 생성하기 위해서는 많은 시간이 걸리기 때문에 소수를 빠르게 생성하는 연구가 중요하다. 나눗셈 테이블 순차난수 생성법은 나눗셈 테이블의 길이에 따라 소수 생성 시간이 달라지기 때문에 최적의 테이블 길이를 찾는 것이 필요하다. 현재는 모든 길이의 테이블에 대해서 실제로 소수를 생성해 본 후 그 중에서 최적의 테이블 길이를 선택하는 매우 비효율적 인 방법이 사용되고 있다. 본 논문에서는 나눗셈 테이블 순차난수 생성법의 (안전)소수 생성 시간을 예측하는 확률 적 모델을 제안한다. 이 확률 모델은 나눗셈 테이블의 길이가 인자로 주어졌을 때 (안전)소수 생성알고리즘의 수행 시간을 예측하는 모델이다. 본 연구의 실험에 따르면 이 예측 모델은 오차가 약 4% 정도로 거의 정확하게 실제 수 행시간을 예측한다. 따라서 이 예측 모델을 사용하면 실제로 소수를 생성하지 않고도 수행시간을 예측하고 거의 정 확하게 최적의 테이블 길이를 찾을 수 있다.

Public-key cryptosystems use big prime numbers and safe prime numbers for strong security. However, generating big (safe) primes takes a very long time and thus a research for fast generating (safe) primes is important. When incremental search on division tables are used, it is necessary to find the optimal size of division table since the running time of (safe) prime generation depends on the size of division table. However, there is no efficient way to find the optimal size of division table without actual prime generation. In this paper, we propose a probabilistic analysis model to expect the running time of (safe) primes when incremental search on division table are used. Our model predicts the expected running time of generating (safe) primes when the size of division table is given as a parameter. Our experimental results show our model expects actual running time accurately with 4% error. Therefore, with our model, one can predicts the expected running time and the optimal table size very accurately without any actual (safe) prime generation.

학술인용의 누적적 특성과 이에 대한 영향변수는 무엇이며, 이러한 특성과 변수가 최근 연구가 확대되고 있는 지방행정분야에 지니는 시사점은 무엇인가? 본 연구는 이러한 관점에서 KCI에 등재된 지방행정분야 논문을 중심으로 연구방법론, 등재 후 경과연도, 인용빈도 간의 누적인용관계를, 빈도분석 및 로지스틱 회귀분석을 통해 파악함으로써 지방행정연구의 최근 연구경향과 시사점을 제공하고자 한다. 이러한 방향성의 논의를 위해, 연구방법론 측면에서의 누적인용과정을 다음과 같은“자연적 경향”,“인지적 경향”,“누적적 경향”이 작용하는 모형을 적용하였다. 분석결과, “자연적 경향-인지적 경향-누적적 경향 간 누적인용관계”의 변수들 중 인지적 경향(인용빈도 -> 연구방법)의 변수인 인용빈도와 누적적 경향(등재 후 경과년도 <-> 연구방법))의 변수인 등재 후 경과년도 모두 통계적으로 유의한 것으로 나타났으며, 특히 인지적 경향변수(인용빈도)는 매우 유의하게 나타나(p < 0.01) 3가지 경향 간 누적인용관계의 타당성을 지지하는 것으로 나타났다. 이러한 누적적 인용관계의 경향은 시간에 흐름에 따라 학문 커뮤너티에서 일정부분 자연적 성향으로 나타나는 것으로, 향후 인용정보와 지수시스템이 체계화되고 그 활용도가 증가할수록 특히 방법론적인 부분과 인용의 관계가 한쪽으로 편향될 수도 있는 부분을 균형있는 시각으로 바라보게 도와주고, 연구자와 커뮤너티가 함께 객관적 인용정보 너머에 있는 질적이고 깊이 있는 연구 또한 고려할 수 있도록 반추하고 소통하도록 돕는 기준이 될 것으로 사료된다.

This study introduced the concept and model of cumulative citation relation to understand scholarly citation process where research methods, years after registration, and citation frequency are interacted. In particular, the literature in the area of local administration studies, which have expanded quantitatively and qualitatively, to offer recent research tendency and suggestion in district administration. Based on the database of the Korea Citation Index (KCI), this study applied the model where "natural tendency", "perceptional tendency", and "cumulative tendency" are cumulatively interacted to verify how cumulative citation process in research is evolvable. In the logistic regression model of the cumulative variables representing natural tendency, perceptional tendency, cumulative tendency, a variable of perceptional tendency (citation frequency -> research method) and years after registration, a variable of cumulative tendency (years after registration <-> research method) were proven significant statistically. In particular, perceptional tendency variable (citation variable) was very significant (p < 0.01). The cumulative citation relation among the three tendencies held its highest validity, and this implies local government studies and many other scholarly fields can consider this kind of cumulative citation process for their quantitative and qualitative development in research.

It is expected that renewable power will increase uncertainty to the overall power supply system because renewable power generation depends on the volatility of external conditions of renewable resource. Future supply of renewable power will be increasing due to active government promotion of renewable energy utilization.We investigate the impact of renewable power generation on the peak time electricity supply deriving the representative wind mill and its power curve. Simulation result shows that peak time impact of renewable power generation on the electricity supply may reach the maximum of 1.328GW by year 2011, 2.308GW by year 2017, respectively. This implies that the concept on the size of deterministic power capacity will have difficulty understanding the volatile nature of renewable power production and this type of probabilistic approach of analysis may provide an alternative to that.

‘In structural system, a certain amount of uncertainties always persists in material properties, geometric parameters and applied loads. In this study, the structure is designed to withstand theuncertainties which are caused by either measurement inaccuracy or system complexity. Randomstructures are modelled by using ANSYS probabilistic design module. It can be applied easily to anystructural system with random parameters. The aim of this paper is to make optimal design for the beamwith random input variables due to width and height and response parameters due to displacements andstresses. The probabilistic design is also carried out with ANSYS APDL and then the optimal design issequentially solved. As the total volume of beam, stresses and displacements at the beam are treated asrandom parameters, the numerical results are obtained.'

Recently, Apartment Reconstruction Projects are performing only with the basis of profitability without establishing either certain criteria or standard guideline. In addition, the profitability information contained in a disposal plan tends to be considered as a fixed value, and it is frequently changeable because reconstruction projects have such a long time to complete and many participants with respective interests. As mentioned above, the new approach needs to be developed which covers the limitation of the unvaried one. Consequently, this study focuses on the probability approach considering not only variances that affect the profit, but the relationship between profit and risk, and then is modeling. This study is anticipated to improve the reliability and accuracy of expected value as well as apply to the decision making criteria quantitively about potentially hidden risks in that projects.

In the Internet of Things (IoT), resource-limited smart devices communicate with each other while performing sensing and computation tasks. Thus, these devices can be exposed to various attacks being launched and spread through network. For instance, attacker can reuse the codes of IoT devices for malicious activity executions. In the sense that attacker can craft malicious codes by skillfully reusing codes stored in IoT devices, code-reuse attacks are generally considered to be dangerous. Although a variety of schemes have been proposed to defend against code-reuse attacks, code randomization is regarded as a representative defense technique against code-reuse attacks. Indeed, many research have been done on code randomization technique, however, there are little work on analysis of the interactions between code randomization defenses and code-reuse attacks although it is imperative problem to be explored. To provide the better understanding of these interactions in IoT, we analyze how code randomization defends against code-reuse attacks in IoT and perform simulation on it. Both analysis and simulation results show that the more frequently code randomizations occur, the less frequently code-reuse attacks succeed.

This paper proposes a probabilistic method in analyzing timing measurements to determine the periodicity of real-time tasks. The proposed method fills a gap in existing techniques, which either concentrate on the estimation of worst-case execution times, or do not consider the stochastic behavior of the real-time scheduler. Our method is based on the Z-test statistical analysis which calculates the probability of the measured period to fall within a user-defined standard deviation limit. The distribution of the measured period should satisfy two conditions: its center (statistical mean) should be equal to the scheduled period of the real-time task, and that it should be symmetrical with most of the samples focused on the center. To ensure that these requirements are met, a data adjustment process, which omits any outliers in the expense of accuracy, is presented. Then, the Z-score of the distribution according to the user-defined deviation limit provides a probability which determines the periodicity of the real-time task. Experiments are conducted to analyze the timing measurements of real-time tasks based on real-time Linux extensions of Xenomai and RT-Preempt. The results indicate that the proposed method is able to provide easier interpretation of the periodicity of real-time tasks which are valuable especially in comparing the performance of various real-time systems.

정보보호는 비즈니스적인 필요성에 의해 존재할 때 그 가치가 있으며 정보보호관리체계의 등장배 경 역시 비즈니스의 환경변화로부터 기인하게 된다. 기업들은 외부의 위협과 위험으로부터 자산을 관 리하기 위해 노력해야 한다. 위험 분석 및 평가 방법은 위험의 정도를 정의하고 관리하기 위한 노력 이다. 하지만, 대부분의 연구는 정성적인 평가에 기반하고 있어 평가자의 개인적인 지식이나 경험에 의존하고 있다. 따라서 우리는 정량적인 평가에 기반을 둔 적절한 방법론이 필요하다. 본 논문에서는 위험의 정도를 측정할 때 객관적이고 공통된 기준을 제공하기 위해 정량적인 평가에 기반을 둔 방법 을 제시한다. 특히, 분산 서비스 거부 공격에 초점을 맞추어 해당 공격에 대한 위험의 정도를 측정한 다. 이를 위해 우리는 몇 개의 수식을 이용하여 손실의 정도와 발생 가능성을 정의하고 위험도를 손 실의 정도와 발생 가능성의 곱으로 정의한다. 논문에서 제시된 방법은 위험도를 정확하게 측정하는데 적절하게 이용될 수 있다.

The information protection is valuable when it exists by needs of business. The advent of the ISMS(information security management system) is caused by the change of this business environment. Companies should try to manage their assets from external threat and risk. Risk analysis and assessment methods are effort to measure and define the degree of risk with a formal process. However, most of them are based on a qualitative evaluation and they depend on personal knowledge or experience of estimators. So, we need suitable method based on a quantitative evaluation. We propose an appropriate method based on the quantitative measurement to provide an objective and common criteria. In this paper, we focus on the risk of Distributed Denial-Of-Servic e Attack(DDoS). We discuss a loss degree and risk possibility with some equations. We define that risk degree is the product of a loss degree and risk possibility. The propose method is useful to estimate the degree of risk correctly.

It is not easy to correctly predict deflections of reinforced concrete beams and one-way slabs due to the variability of parameters involved in the calculation of deflections. Monte Carlo simulation is used to assess the variability of deflections with known statistical data and probability distributions of variables. A deterministic deflection value is obtained using the layered beam model based on the finite element approach in which a finite element is divided into a number of layers over the depth. The model takes into account nonlinear effects such as cracking, creep and shrinkage. Statistical parameters were obtained from the literature. For the assessment of variability of deflections, 12 cases of one-way slabs and T-beams are designed on the basis of ultimate moment capacity. Several results of a probabilistic study are presented to indicate general trends indicated by results and demonstrate the effect of certain design parameters on the variability of deflections. From simulation results, the variability of deflections relies primarily on the ratio of applied moment to cracking moment and the corre-sponding reinforcement ratio.

우리나라에서 건설될 가상적인 1125MWe PWR발전소에 대해 통계적인 방법으로 몇가지 서로 다른 핵주기간의 상호 경제성을 살펴 보았다. 모든 핵연료 파라메타들은 각기 적절한 확률분포함수를 갖고 있는 통계적인 변수로 취급하였고, 무작위 표본 추출 방법으로 요구비용 및 여러가지 핵주기성분에 대한 break-even 코스트들의 히스토그램을 얻었다. 이 히스토그램으로 throw-away 주기에 대한 재처리 및 플루토늄 재장전주기의 cost-benefit를 조사하였다.

A statistical approach is employed to investigate the relative advantages of several alternative fuel cycles suitable for a hypothetical 1125 MWe plant in Korea. All the fuel cost parameters are treated as statistical variables, each being associated with an appropriate probability distribution function. Through a random sampling procedure, the probability histograms on both capital requirements and break-even costs of various fuel cycle components are obtained. The histograms are then utilized to quantify the cost-benefit of the fuel cycle with reprocessing or the plutonium recycle over the throwaway cycle.