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1

Does Rising Public Debt Constrain Growth? Evidence from Developing Economies KCI 등재

Kim Min-Joon, Yun Dae-Hong

대한경영정보학회 경영과 정보연구 제45권 제1호 2026.03 pp.21-37

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5,100원

[연구목적] 본 연구는 공공부채와 경제성장 간의 관계를 실증적으로 분석하는 데 목적이 있다. 공공부채는 특히 신흥국 및 개발도상국에서 경제정책의 핵심 쟁점으로 논의되어 왔다. 이에 본 연구는 1995년부터 2022년까지 83개 신흥국 및 개발도상국을 대상으로 공공부채가 경제성장에 미치는 영향을 분석하였다. [연구방법]연구방법으로는 횡단면 자기회귀 시차분포 모형(CS-ARDL)과 시스템 일반화적률법(SGMM)을 활용하였다. CS-ARDL 모형은 변수들 간의 횡단면 의존성을 통제함으로써 보다 신뢰성 있고 정확한 추정치를 제공하며, SGMM 기법은 패널자료 분석에서 발생할 수 있는 내생성과 이질성 문제를 완화하기 위해 적용되었다. [연구결과]공공부채는 단기 및 장기 모두에서 경제성장에 부정적인 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났으며, 특히 장기적으로 그 부정적 효과가 더욱 강화되는 것으로 확인되었다. 이는 표본 국가들에서 공공부채가 경제성장에 긍정적으로 기여하지 못함을 시사한다. 이러한 부정적 영향은 정부 차입의 비효율적 배분과 민간투자를 위축시키는 구축효과(crowding-out effect)에 기인하는 것으로 해석된다. [연구의 시사점] 본 연구의 결과는 신흥국 및 개발도상국이 경제성장을 촉진하기 위해 공공부채를 보다 효율적으로 관리하고, 건전하고 합리적인 재정정책을 수립할 필요가 있음을 시사한다.

[Purpose] The relationship between public debt and economic growth was always a top concern for countries, especially for developing economies. Using data from 83 emerging and developing economies between 1995 and 2022, this study explores the impact of public debt on economic growth. [Methodology] This study employs the cross-sectional autoregressive distributed lag (CS-ARDL) and system generalized method of moments (SGMM) techniques. The CS-ARDL approach is used to account for cross-sectional dependence among the variables, thereby providing more reliable and accurate estimations. Additionally, the SGMM method is applied to address potential endogeneity and heterogeneity issues commonly associated with panel data analysis. [Findings]The results indicate that public debt is negatively associated with economic growth across short- and long-term periods, and this impact intensifies in the long run. This evidence suggests that public debt does not contribute positively to economic growth in the sampled countries. The adverse impact of public debt can be attributed to the inefficient allocation of government borrowing as well as the crowding-out effect on private investment. [Implications] Based on these results, emerging and developing economies need to manage public debt well and develop reasonable fiscal policies to promote economic growth.

2

M&A 집약도가 산업생산성에 미치는 동태적 충격분석

임형록, 정준이

한국기업경영학회 기업경영연구 제15권 제3호 2008.12 pp.207-223

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5,100원

본 연구는 1993~2005년간 기업결합의 활성화 정도가 산업생산성에 미치는 장기효과를 규명하는데 연구의 목적을 두었고, 특히 M&A 집약도의 동태적 효과를 측정하고자 하였다. 이를 위하여 본 연구에서는 공적분 행렬을 이용하여 직교화된 충격반응함수(impulse response function)을 도출할 수 있는 오차수정모형(vector error correction)을 사용하였고, 구체적으로 충격반응함수를 통하여 M&A 집약도의 1단위 표준편차 수준의 충격이 발생할 경우 산업생산성에 어떠한 장기적인 동태효과를 미치는가를 분석할 수 있다. 분석결과 우리나라의 경우 M&A집약도에 1단위 표준편차의 충격이 발생할 경우 향후 2년 동안 산업생산성이 상승되나 그 이후부터는 장기적으로 하락하는 추세를 보이게 된다. 이는 인수합병 후 종업원 구조조정 기간으로 통상 주어지는 2년과 정확히 일치하는 결과로 우리나라의 경우 산업단위 인수합병이 생산성 향상으로 곧바로 이어지는 단기효과만을 갖고 있어 장기적으로 산업의 구조조정 효과가 미비할 것임을 시사한다

The paper examines the long-term impact of M&A intensities on industry productivities between 1993 and 2005. For this purpose, a vector error correction model is constructed to derive orthogonal impulse response function using a cointegration vector. In particular, the paper derives the impulse response function of industry productivities when one standard deviation shocks occur to all endogenous variables including M&A intensity. According to the main findings, a shock to M&A intensity enhances industry productivity for two years but its impact becomes to diminish as longer lags are taken into consideration. This exactly coincides with legally given two-year employee reorganization period, which indicates that industry level M&A intensity has only short-term effects on industry productivities rather than does long-term effects.

3

Effect of Lumbar Stabilization and Dynamic Lumbar Strengthening Exercises in Patients With Chronic Low Back Pain

Hye Jin Moon, 최경효, Dae Ha Kim, 김하정, Young Ki Cho, Kwang Hee Lee, Jung Hoo Kim, Yoo Jung Choi

[NRF 연계] 대한재활의학회 Annals of Rehabilitation Medicine Vol.37 No.1 2013.02 pp.110-117

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Objective To compare the effects of lumbar stabilization exercises and lumbar dynamic strengthening exercises on the maximal isometric strength of the lumbar extensors, pain severity and functional disability in patients with chronic low back pain (LBP).Methods Patients suffering nonspecific LBP for more than 3 months were included prospectively and randomized into lumbar stabilization exercise group (n=11) or lumbar dynamic strengthening exercise group (n=10). Exercises were performed for 1 hour, twice weekly, for 8 weeks. The strength of the lumbar extensors was measured at various angles ranging from 0° to 72° at intervals of 12°, using a MedX. The visual analog scale (VAS) and the Oswestry Low Back Pain Disability Questionnaire (ODQ) were used to measure the severity of LBP and functional disability before and after the exercise.Results Compared with the baseline, lumbar extension strength at all angles improved significantly in both groups after 8 weeks. The improvements were significantly greater in the lumbar stabilization exercise group at 0° and 12° of lumbar flexion. VAS decreased significantly after treatment; however, the changes were not significantly different between the groups. ODQ scores improved significantly in the stabilization exercise group only. Conclusion Both lumbar stabilization and dynamic strengthening exercise strengthened the lumbar extensors and reduced LBP. However, the lumbar stabilization exercise was more effective in lumbar extensor strengthening and functional improvement in patients with nonspecific chronic LBP.

4

Regarding to the Article ‘Effect of Lumbar Stabilization and Dynamic Lumbar Strengthening Exercises in Patients With Chronic Low Back Pain’

James Steele

[NRF 연계] 대한재활의학회 Annals of Rehabilitation Medicine Vol.38 No.6 2014.12 pp.876-878

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5

A Reply to the Questions Regarding to the Article ‘Effect of Lumbar Stabilization and Dynamic Lumbar Strengthening Exercises in Patients With Chronic Low Back Pain’

Hye Jin Moon, Kyoung Hyo Choi, Dae Ha Kim, Ha Jeong Kim, Young Ki Cho, Kwang Hee Leem, Jung Hoo Kim, Yoo Jung Choi

[NRF 연계] 대한재활의학회 Annals of Rehabilitation Medicine Vol.38 No.6 2014.12 pp.879-880

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6

The Effect of Computerized Dynamic Assessment on Working Memory Span of EFL Learners while Listening SCOPUS KCI 등재

Masoomeh Estaji, Fatemeh Safari

아시아영어교육학회 The Journal of AsiaTEFL Vol.17 No.3 2020.09 pp.1132-1140

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4,000원

7

Effect of Kinesio Taping on Dynamic Balance Ability and Functional Performance KCI 등재

Geun-Young Park, Dae-Young Kim

대한스포츠물리치료학회 정형스포츠물리치료학회지 Vol.19 No.2 2023.12 pp.27-35

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4,000원

Purpose: The aim of this study was to investigate the effects of ankle Kinesio taping application on dynamic balance ability and functional performance. Methods: The subjects consisted of 16 university students aged 20-24 years participating in regular sports activities. The y-balance test (YBT) was performed before and after taping to measure the dynamic balance ability. The static balance ability was measured with a one leg standing test. The functional performance test (FPT) consisted of the figure-of-eight hop test, side hop test, 6-meter cross over hop test, and square hop test. Results: The results of this study revealed a statistical significance in YBT of the left leg posterolateral (p=0.011) and one leg standing test (p=0.001). FPT showed significant improvement in figure-of-eight hop, side hop, 6-meter cross over hop, and square hop tests for both right and left legs (p<0.05). The correlation analysis between each measurement variable showed that YBT of the right leg anterior was positively correlated with figure-of-eight hop right leg (r=0.625, p<0.01) and square hop of the right leg (r=0.627, p<0.01). Conclusion: In conclusion, ankle Kinesio taping application may provide stability to the left ankle, as it improved the YBT of the left leg posterolateral of dynamic balance ability. In addition, YBT of the right leg anterior showed 62.5% and 62.7% explanatory power for the figure-of-eight hop and square hop tests in FPT, respectively. This suggests that the stability of the right support foot may help with forward functional performance.

10

Effect of wearing positions of load on the dynamic balance during gait SCOPUS KCI 등재

Seung-Hyun Hyun, Che-Cheong Ryew

한국운동재활학회 JER Vol.14 No.1 2018.02 pp.152-155

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4,000원

The study aim to analyze the influence on dynamic stability relative to positions carrying with weight during gait, for which experiment partici-pated with healthful adult males (n=9), were performed under three-di-mensional (3D) conditions of no load (NL), right of trunk (RT), and front of trunk (FT). The kinematic and kinetic conclusions obtained from 3D cinematography and ground reaction force system were as follows; 1-step time elapsed showed longest in NL of all, and maximum velocity of RT showed slower than NL and FT, which resulted in significant level at (P<0.05) respectively. While NL showed slower average velocity than RT and FT, RT showed larger incline angle (extrapolated center of mass θ) than NL and FT, which resulted in significant level at (P<0.01) respectively. Also FT showed larger peak vertical force than NL and RT, which resulted in significant level at (P<0.001). Because gait pattern is regarded it as a success when fulfilled both forward propulsive force and dynamic stability, we may ensure that each other active strategy for securement and performance in a situation carrying with 20 kg of the same weight in forward and lateral plane was mobilized. However, participants in pathological gait such as leg injury, and exercise rehabil-itation during walking should avoid carrying loads bag to ensure dy-namic stability.

11

4,500원

Purpose: The purpose of this study is to investigate the effects of 6 weeks of kettlebell training on whole body muscle strength, dynamic, agility, balance ability, and functional movement screen in college soccer players. Methods: The subjects were 24 college male soccer players, and kettlebell exercises were performed for 60 minutes, three times a week, for a total of six weeks. All subjects measured body composition, whole body muscle strength(5 types), agility(3 types), dynamic balance ability and functional movement screen. Results: The results of this study showed that kettlebell training significantly improved R-PS(p<.05), L-PS(p<.05), R-TR(p<.01), L-TR(p<.05), LB-PS(p<.001), and LB-PL(p<.01) in the whole body muscle strength test, T-test(p<.001), illinois test(p<.01) in agility, and ODS(p<.01), HS(p<.05), IL(p<.05), SM(p<.05), TS(p<.001) in the functional movement screen. Conclusion: The results of this study show that 6 weeks of kettlebell training is considered a good way to improve the whole body muscle strength, agility, and functional movement screen of college soccer players.

12

4,900원

본 연구의 목적은 WTO TBT 적합성평가체제 하에서 동적역량을 매개한 자격인증 획득이 수출성과에 어떠한 영향을 미치는지를 실증분석을 통하여 확인함으로써 수출입기업의 국제경쟁력 향상에 이바지하고 적합성관리체계와 관련한 정부의 정책 수립에 가이드라인을 제시하는 것이 다. 본 연구는 자원준거시각에 기반한 다중회귀분석 방법을 이용하였고, 신뢰도 분석과 요인분석을 통하여 연구의 집중 타당성을, 상관관계 분석 을 통하여 판별 타당성을 각각 검증하였다. 본 연구의 실증분석 결과는 자격 인정획득이 기업의 수출 실적에 긍정적인 영향을 미쳤으며, 특히 기 술역량과 마케팅역량의 통제효과가 큰 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났다. 이러한 연구결과는 국제 규격을 적용한 자격인증획득 기업이 수출 실적 을 향상시키고 국제 시장에서 기업의 가치를 높이는 데 긍정적인 영향을 미친다는 것을 의미한다. 본 연구의 차별성은 정부나 지방자치단체에게 는 국제자격인증 획득과 관련한 법, 제도적 측면의 정책적 가이드라인을 제시하고, 무역기업들에게는 관련 국가나 산업에서 요구하는 국제표준, 기술규정을 준수하는 국제 자격 인증을 획득하기 위하여 인적, 물적 자원의 경쟁력 향상을 위하여 최선의 노력을 다해야 한다는 시사점을 제공하 는 것이다.

The purpose of this study is to contribute to the improvement of the international competitiveness of import and export companies and to provide guidelines for the establishment of government policies related to the conformity management system by confirming through empirical analysis of how the acquisition of qualification certification mediated through dynamic capability under the WTO TBT conformity assessment system. In this study, multiple regression analysis method based on resource criteria perspective was used, and the focused validity of the study was verified through reliability analysis and factor analysis, and distinction validity was verified through correlation analysis. The results of the empirical analysis of this study show that the acquisition of qualification certifications have a positive effect on the export performance of a company, and in particular, the control effect of technology and marketing capabilities have a great effect. These results indicate that companies that have obtained qualification certifications to which international standards are applied have a positive effect on improving their export performance and increasing the company's value in the international market. The distinction of this study is as follows: To the government or local governments, it provides policy guidelines in terms of laws and systems related to the acquisition of international qualification certification, and to the trading companies, it provides implications that companies should do their best to improve the competitiveness of human and material resources in order to obtain international qualification certification that complies with international standards and technical regulations required by relevant countries or industries

13

Effect of slipper wearing and carrying positions of infant on dynamic stability and kinetic variable during level walking SCOPUS KCI 등재

Che-Cheong Ryew, Seung-Hyun Hyun

한국운동재활학회 JER Vol.14 No.4 2018.08 pp.699-703

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4,000원

Recently though various hip seats for carrying infant of women was de-signed and developed, then, wearing slipper may restrain the move-ment of bare foot. The study was undertaken to investigate the dynamic stability and kinetic variables according to between position of carrying infant and wearing slipper. Adult female (n=10) and under one year age of infant (n=10) participated in the study. Extrapolated center of mass, center of pressure, ground reaction force (GRF), and leg stiffness of gait characteristics using 3-dimensional cinematography and GRF were an-alyzed. Dynamic stability according to position of carrying infant and wearing slipper was not significant. While when carried an infant against normal gait showed significant difference in breaking force, leg stiffness and loading rate (P<0.001). Of which breaking force and verti-cal impulse were more increased when the back-carried against fore-carried of trunk. Thus it resulted in transformation on types of im-pulse transfer to leg and COG of women’s carrying infant, which may be strategy for securing a dynamic stability. Therefore experts related with exercise rehabilitation should understand sufficiently on gait character-istics of women with diseases on muscular-skeletal system and per-form effective rehabilitation and treatment.

14

4,200원

Purpose: This study aimed to evaluate the effect of task-oriented training on trunk stabilization, coordination of the lower extremities, and dynamic balance of patients with stroke. Methods: Ten patients with stroke were randomly divided into two groups of five patients each who met the selection criteria. The training was conducted five times a week for 60 minutes. The experimental group received task-oriented training and general physical therapy, while the control group received only general physical therapy. The Mann-Whitney U test was used to compare differences between the groups, and the Wilcoxon signed-rank test was used to compare differences between pre- and post-intervention within each group. Results: Trunk stabilization was measured using the trunk impairment scale. Only the coordination assessment on the trunk impairment scale was statistically significant after intervention in the experimental group (p = 0.046) and between the experimental and control groups (p = 0.029). The LEMOCT, figure-of-8 walk test (F8WT), timed up-and-go (TUG) test results were not statistically significantly different in the group after intervention. However, the F8WT and TUG test results showed a statistically significant difference between the experimental and control groups (p = 0.029). Conclusion: The task-oriented training showed positive effects on the trunk stabilization, coordination of the lower extremities, and dynamic balance of the patients with stroke.

15

글로벌 금융위기 이후 국내외 시장금리 동조화 현상 분석: 미국 및 우리나라 수익률곡선 관계를 중심으로

김도완, 오형석

[NRF 연계] 한국경제학회 경제학연구 Vol.63 No.2 2015.06 pp.111-143

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본 논문은 글로벌 금융위기 이후 선진국 중앙은행의 대규모 양적완화정책에 따른선진국과 우리나라 시장금리간의 동조화 현상을 수익률곡선 측면에서 실증적으로 분석하였다. 이를 위해 동태적 Nelson-Siegel 모형을 활용하여 우리나라와 미국의 수익률곡선 결정요인들을 추정하였으며, 동 요인들을 변수로 사용하여 시변모수 VAR모형을 구축한 다음 동태적 관점에서 예측오차 분산분해 분석을 실시하였다. 분석결과, 미국 수익률곡선의 수준 요인이 우리나라 수익률곡선의 수준 요인에 미치는 파급효과가 글로벌 금융위기 이후 크게 높아진 것으로 분석되었다. 특히 3년 만기 국고채 수익률에 대한 미국 장기금리의 영향력은 2014년 들어 약40%를 상회하고 있는 것으로 나타났다. 반면 미국 장기금리가 우리나라 단기금리에 미치는 영향은 통계적으로 유의하지 않은 것으로 밝혀졌다. 이와 같이 글로벌 금융위기 이후 우리나라와 미국의 장기금리간 동조화 현상이 강화되었다는 분석결과 등에 비추어 볼 때 향후 미 연준의 통화정책 정상화에 따라 미국의 장기금리가 상승할 경우 우리나라 장기금리도 상승압력을 받을 것으로 예상된다. 이같은 경우 국내 장단기 금리차가 확대되면서 수익률곡선의 기울기가 가팔라지는 등금융 시장의 변동성이 확대될 가능성이 있으므로 이를 완화할 수 있는 정책 대응방안 등이 모색되어야 할 것으로 판단된다.

We examine empirically the co-movements of market rates between Korea and the U.S., focusing on the yield curve, driven by the large-scale quantitative easing carried out by major advanced countries since the global financial crisis. We extract major factors from the Korean and U.S. yield curves by employing the dynamic Nelson-Siegel model. After establishing a time-varying parameter VAR model, which deploys these factors as variables, we conduct a forecast-error variance decomposition analysis from a dynamic perspective. Our main results confirm that the effects of the U.S. yield curve’s level factors on those of Korea have grown significantly since the global financial crisis. This is particularly true for the impact of U.S. long-term interest rates on three-year Korean government bond yields, as its explanatory power exceeded 40% in 2014. Meanwhile, as for Korean short-term interest rates, we do not find any significant effects of U.S. long term interest rates. Our findings suggest that Korean long-term interest rates are likely to face upward pressures from the rise in US long-term interest rates following the monetary policy normalization by the Federal Reserve Board. This may increase the volatility of Korean financial market by, for example, widening the spread between short- and long-term interest rates, which would in turn cause Korean yield curve to steepen. It is thus important to devise relevant policy measures in response.

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뇌졸중 환자에서 시각적 바이오피드백을 이용한 균형 훈련 효과

김연희, 신재은, 김두환, 우영근, 김남균

[NRF 연계] 대한재활의학회 Annals of Rehabilitation Medicine Vol.28 No.6 2004.12 pp.515-522

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Objective: To investigate the effect of dynamic balance training with center of pressure (COP) games using visual biofeedback of COP movement in stroke patients. Method: Thirty-eight stroke patients were randomly assigned to the static or dynamic balance training group, or control group. Static group received weight-shift training with visual biofeedback of weight distribution bar. Dynamic group received dynamic balance training using COP games. Each training session lasted 30 minutes, 3 times in a week during 3 weeks. Control group received traditional rehabilitation only. The ability of balance control was assessed using posturography by total path distance, frequency of sway, and COP weight-spectrums during standing, and during presentation of virtual moving surround. Total path error was also assessed during sine curve and dynamic circle trace test. Results: In static group, there were significant improvement in the total path distance during comfortable standing and path error during sine curve tracing. In dynamic group, significant improvements were found in the path error during sine curve and dynamic circle tracing. Conclusion: Dynamic training group showed more improvement in dynamic balance ability, whereas static group showed more changes in the static balance ability. The visual biofeedback training is more specified for balance rehabilitation in stroke patients.

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뇌졸중 환자에서 체중부하와 마비 측 골밀도의 관계

임선, 강유진, 임성훈, 정명은, 이종인, 고영진, 김혜원

[NRF 연계] 대한재활의학회 Annals of Rehabilitation Medicine Vol.33 No.2 2009.04 pp.165-171

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Objective: To measure the foot force and contact area distribution between the paretic and nonparetic sides during static and dynamic weight-bearing states, and to determine their relationship with BMD (bone mineral density). Method: Sixteen stroke patients (mean age=63.5±7.46 years) were included and BMDs of bilateral femurs were evaluated. Foot force and total foot contact areas were measured using the F-scan insole system. All values were expressed in ratio of paretic versus nonparetic sides. Results: The paretic side showed significantly smaller values in BMD, foot force and total contact area than the nonparetic sides (p<0.05). Femoral BMD ratio correlated significantly with dynamic weight bearing force ratio (r=0.58, p<0.05) and time elapsed since stroke as well (r=?0.17, p<0.05), while it did not correlate with either static weight-bearing force ratio (r=0.25, p>0.05), or total contact area ratio during both dynamic and static weight-bearing state (r=0.23, r=0.12, p>0.05). Multiple regression analysis showed that dynamic weight-bearing force ratio and time elapsed since stroke were independently related to BMD ratio (t=3.25, p<0.001 and t=?4.89, p<0.001). Conclusion: The present study showed that foot force differences in the dynamic weight- bearing state significantly correlated to post-stroke BMD while foot contact area in both the static and dynamic weight-bearing state did not correlate to post-stroke BMD.

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혼합주기자료 VAR모형을 이용한 통화정책의 월별 동태효과 분석

김윤영

[NRF 연계] 한국경제학회 경제학연구 Vol.58 No.1 2010.03 pp.87-111

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월별로 집행되는 통화정책과 달리 실물경제의 반응을 측정하는 대표변수인 GDP 는 분기별로 공표되고 있어 VAR 모형분석을 이용한 표준적 동태분석에 어려움이있다. 본고에서는 이러한 분기 GDP 및 월별 금융변수로 이루어진 혼합주기 자료를 가지고, 통화정책(통화량 변동을 대리변수로 사용)의 GDP에 대한 파급효과를월별 VAR 모형을 김윤영․박준용(2007) 등이 제시한 방법으로 추정 분석하였다. 붓스트랩을 이용한 충격반응분석 결과, 중위값(median) 기준으로 통화량 증가 충격은 2개월 이후의 GDP 증가에 큰 영향을 미치다가 그 효과가 점차 사라지지만분기 내에서 월별로 진동성(cyclicity) 을 갖는 것으로 나타났다. 반면 GDP 증가충격은 단시간에 물가와 환율을 상승시키나 시간의 흐름에 따라 점차 그 효과가작아지는 것으로 나타났다. 마지막으로 환율 상승 충격은 9개월 이후 GDP를 증가시켜 충격․반응 간 시차가 상대적으로 긴 것으로 나타났다. 그러나 분기모형의 경우 통화량 증가 충격이 GDP에 미치는 영향의 방향이 혼합주기 모형과 같으나 좀 더 평활화(smoothing) 된 형태로 나타났다. 이런 접근은 통화정책의 對GDP 동태효과를 월단위로 파악할 수 있어 금융시장이 단기간에 급변하는 위기시의 정책결정에 유용한 정보를 제공할 수 있을 것으로 판단된다.

Central banks conduct monetary policy on a monthly basis and have interests in the dynamic analysis of monthly frequency data. However, GDP is observed quarterly and thus an impulse response analysis using quarterly model is conventional. A realistic approach is to estimate a monthly VAR using a mixed frequency data. In this paper, following Kim and Park(2007), we conduct a dynamic analysis of the effect of Korean monetary policy on GDP under VAR model with a mixed frequency data. According to the impulse response analysis based on GMM estimation, we find the increase of money supply affects GDP growth and the effect disappears gradually. However, the inflation and Won/Dollar exchange rate are not much affected by the money supply shocks. This approach may be useful especially during financial crisis because the monetary policy effect is analyzed by monthly period.

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동태 CGE모형을 이용한 한국 법인세 인하의 경제적 파급효과 분석

김명규, 김성태

[NRF 연계] 한국경제학회 경제학연구 Vol.58 No.3 2010.09 pp.75-119

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본 논문에서는 최근 논란이 되고 있는 법인세 인하의 경제적 파급효과를 사전적으로 분석하기 위하여 2008년 우리나라 경제를 동태적 계산가능 일반균형모형으로 재현하여 구축한 다음, 법인세 인하를 세 개의 시나리오 - 세율을 일괄적으로5%P 인하하는 방안 1과 단계적으로 2년에 걸쳐 인하하는 방안 2 및 5년에 걸쳐1%P 씩 인하하는 방안 3 - 로 구분하여 그 효과를 비교하여 분석하였다. 분석 결과 법인세 인하의 가장 직접적인 영향을 받는 투자의 경우 모든 시나리오에서 장기적으로 투자가 증가하는 것으로 나타났으며, 단기적으로는 예상대로 법인세를한꺼번에 인하하는 방안 1을 추진하는 경우 가장 신속하게 투자가 증가하는 것으로 나타났다. 그 결과 법인세 인하가 자본축적에 미치는 효과 역시 방안 1이 가장큰 것으로 나타났다. 법인세 인하가 GDP에 미치는 효과는 단기나 장기 모두에서긍정적인 효과를 나타내는 것으로 드러나 단기적으로는 법인세 인하의 경기 진작효과가 있는 것으로 입증되었으며 장기적으로는 자본축적의 증가를 통한 GDP 증가효과가 있는 것으로 나타났다. 한편 법인세 인하가 소득계층별 소득에 미치는효과를 분석한 결과 법인세 인하가 모든 계층의 소득을 증가시키는 것으로 나타나 파레토 개선이 이루어지는 것으로 드러났다. 더욱이 모든 방안에서 소득분배가 다소나마 개선되는 것으로 나타났다. 본고에서 밝힌 중요한 점은 법인세 인하의 귀착을 분석할 때 자본과 노동과 같은 생산요소별 귀착과 소득계층별 귀착을분리하여 고려하여야 된다는 것이다. 또한 법인세 인하의 바람직한 효과를 얻기위해서는 정부지출의 감소가 필요조건이 된다는 점도 다시 한 번 확인되었다. 결론적으로 법인세 인하는 효율성 측면에서나 형평성 측면에서 한국경제를 위해 바람직하다고 할 수 있다. 본고의 정책적 시사점은 정부는 법인세 인하를 계획대로차질 없이 추진하여야 된다는 것이다.

In this paper we construct the Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium Model for Korea to analyze the effect of corporate income tax(CIT hereafter)reduction on the Korean Economy. We analyze and compare the three different policy alternatives for CIT reduction among which Scenario 1 is CIT reduction by 5%p at once, Scenario 2 is two-step CIT reduction, and Scenario 3 is five-step CIT reduction during five years from 2008. Based on policy simulations we find that CIT reduction will increase investments for all scenarios. Furthermore, Scenario 1 will increase investments in shortest time in the short run. As a result Scenario 1 will result in most capital formation. Secondly, when it comes to the effect of CIT reduction on consumption, for all scenarios consumption will increase in the long run. The government expenditures will decrease owing to decrease in tax revenues due to CIT deduction. Therefore, CIT reduction will increase GDP for all three alternatives both in the short run and the long run. Thirdly,regarding on the income distribution effect of CIT reduction all income classes will benefit from CIT reduction so that Pareto improvement will be obtained. In addition income distribution will also be improved from CIT reform. In conclusion in terms of efficiency and equity CIT reduction in Korea is desirable. Policy implication is such that the Korean government should do CIT reduction immediately.

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장애인의 취업이 일상생활 만족도에 미치는 영향 :성향점수매칭 및 동태적 분석방법을 이용하여

조희준, 정우근

[NRF 연계] 한국장애인고용공단 고용개발원 장애와 고용 Vol.26 No.3 2016.08 pp.207-240

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본 연구의 목적은 장애인에게 있어 취업이라는 사건이 일상생활 만족도에 미치는 영향을보다 정밀하게 검증하는 데 있다. 사용한 자료는 장애인고용패널 5차년도(2012년)부터 7차년도(2014년)까지의 데이터이며, 분석대상은 5차년도 현재 미취업자 중 그 이후 한번이라도 취업을 한 집단이며, 선택편의를 최소화하고 취업의 효과를 정확하게 비교하고자 성향점수매칭 방법을 사용하여 비교집단을 구성하였다. 동태적인 분석방법인 이중차이분석과일반화추정방정식을 이용해 관심집단과 비교집단에 대해 취업의 일상생활 만족도 증대 효과를 측정하여 비교하였다. 분석 결과, 장애인 미취업자가 취업을 한 경우에 취업을 하지 않은 경우보다 일상생활 만족도가 통계적으로 유의하게 증가하는 것으로 나타났다. 특히 취업의 긍정적 영향은 경증장애인에 비해 중증장애인에게 더 크게 작용하여, 미취업 중증장애인이 일자리를 갖게 되면일상생활 만족도가 경증장애인보다 더 크게 상승함을 알 수 있다. 이러한 연구결과를 토대로 미취업 장애인의 적극적 노동시장 유인을 위한 정책적·실천적함의를 제시하였다.

The purpose of this study is to verify the impact of the people with disabilities' employment on the life satisfaction by using the removal of selection bias and panel data analysis. It is the data from the 5th to the 7th Panel Study of Employment for the disabled used for the analysis. The main group of concern is the one of those people who were successful in employment although they were unemployed at the fifth survey. Also to minimize selection bias and to compare accurately the effectiveness of the employment we used propensity score matching method. So we could construct the comparison group similar to the main group. After matching, by difference in difference analysis and generalized estimationg equations, we measured the effect of employment on the life satisfaction. In the results, the employed group was confirmed that the increased satisfaction statistically significant than the unemployed group. In particular, the positive effects of employment was more significant on people with severe disabilities compared with the mild disabilities. As a result when people with severe disabilities have the job, the life satisfaction can be seen more elevated. Based on these findings, practical and active policy implications were suggested to lead to the labor market for unemployed people with disabilities.

 
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