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This study investigates the impact of urbanization and climate change on the divergence between economic growth and social welfare. I report several main findings. I find that urban land per capita (ULPA) initially widens the GDP–GPI gap due to high infrastructure and congestion costs, but this effect reverses in the long term as benefits of lower density and improved residential environments accrue. In the case of per capita CO₂ emissions, welfare increases temporarily during periods of intense economic activity, but the effect reverses as accumulated environmental costs persist and ultimately enlarge the GDP–GPI gap. The share of manufacturing strengthens the growth-led divergence at first but, in the long run, shifts toward narrowing the gap through more stable employment and gradual income improvement. Income inequality consistently broadens the GDP–GPI gap across both time horizons, indicating a structural rather than temporary influence. Overall, the findings suggest that urbanization, industrial structure, and environmental liabilities interact to shape qualitative changes in sustainability. Achieving sustainable urban development therefore requires balanced land-use strategies, reductions in carbon emissions, and more equitable income distribution, together with the institutional use of the Genuine Progress Indicator (GPI) in policy evaluation.

본 연구에서는 2002년부터 2020년 까지 연간 자료를 이용하여 한국의 온실가스 배출량과 ESG(Environmental, Social, Governance) 사이의 장・단기 관계를 살펴보았다. 먼저 10개의 ESG 변 수를 주성분 분석(Principle Component Analysis)으로 1개의 ESG 지수로 도출했다. 다음으로 온실가 스 배출량과 ESG 사이의 관계를 ARDL(Autoregressive Distributed Lag) 모형으로 분석했다. ARDL 모형 분석결과, 단기에는 GDP, 무역개방도는 온실가스 배출량에 양(+)의 영향을 미쳤다. 반면 ESG 와 금융발전, 기술개발은 온실가스 배출량에 음(-)의 영향을 주었다. 구체적으로, ESG가 1% 증가할 때 온실가스 배출량은 0.003% 감소했다. 기술개발 1% 변동은 온실가스 배출량을 0.88% 감소시켰다. 금 융발전은 0.55% 온실가스 배출량을 감소시켰다. GDP가 1% 증가할 때 온실가스 배출량을 0.47% 증가 시켰다. 글로벌 금융위기, COVID-19 팬데믹, 러시아와 우크라이나 전쟁 기간에는 온실가스 배출량이 장・단기에 걸쳐 각각 0.06%, 0.14% 감소했다. 이러한 연구 결과들을 토대로 ESG 제도 개선과 국제 사회의 환경규제에 능동적으로 대응한다면 국가경쟁력 제고에 도움이 될 것이다.

The purpose of this study was to examine the long run and short run relationship between greenhouse gas emissions and ESG in Korea using annual data from 2002 to 2020. First, one ESG index was derived by principal component analysis of 10 ESG variables. Through this, the relationship between greenhouse gas emissions and ESG was analyzed using an ARDL model. As a result of the ARDL model analysis, GDP and trade openness had a positive (+) effect on greenhouse gas emissions in the short run. On the other hand, ESG, financial development, and technology development had a negative (-) effect on greenhouse gas emissions. Specifically, when ESG increases by 1%, greenhouse gas emissions decrease by 0.003%. A 1% change in technology development can be interpreted as reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 0.88%. Financial development also reduced greenhouse gas emissions by 0.55%. When GDP increased by 1%, greenhouse gas emissions increased by 0.47%. During the CRISES (global financial crisis, COVID-19 pandemic, and war between Russia and Ukraine), when CRISES increases by 1%, greenhouse gas emissions decrease by 0.06% and 0.14% in the long and short run, respectively. As a result of empirical analysis of the Based on these findings, it will help improve the ESG system and actively respond to international environmental regulations to enhance national competitiveness.

본 연구는 한국을 대상으로 1981년부터 2020년까지 ARDL모형과 공적분관계 추정식(DOLS, FMOLS, CCR)을 적용하여 1인당 신재생에너지 발전량(PNRE), 1인당 이산화탄소 배출량 (PCDE), 1인당 실질GDP(PRGDP), 국제무역(INTRAD), 1인당 비신재생에너지 발전량(PNUC와 PHEAT) 간의 장·단기적 영향을 추정하는 것을 목적으로 하였다. 분석결과, ARDL모형, DOLS, FMOLS, CCR에서 도출된 장기균형관계 추정 결과에서 PNRE, PNUC, PHEAT은 모두 INTRAD 과 PRGDP의 관계에서 쌍방향적이면서 긍정적인 영향을 주는 것으로 나타났다. 이들 세 변수 중에서 PNRE가 환경오염에 미치는 영향이 가장 작은 것으로 파악되었다. PNUC와 PHEAT가 PNRE에 미치는 영향과 PHEAT가 PNUC에 미치는 영향이 그 반대의 경우보다 큰 것으로 나타 났다. 한편, ARDL모형에서 도출된 단기 계수값을 추정한 결과는 PNRE와 PNUC의 변화는 PRGDP 변화와 쌍방향적 관계를 갖으며 PHEAT의 변화는 PCDE 변화, INTRAD 변화와 쌍방적 인 관계를 갖는 것으로 나타났다. INTRAD 변화는 PNRE 변화에 단방향적인 관계를 갖는 것으 로 분석되었다. 정부정책적 측면에서 우리나라의 실질소득 증가와 국제무역 확대를 위한 에너 지 효율화 정책이 필요하며 국제무역과 친환경에너지의 교호 작용을 위해 핵심 제조업과 정보 통신기술 분야와의 융합·연계를 위한 지원이 확대되어야 한다. 게다가, 경직성 전원인 원자력 발전과 변동성 전원인 재생에너지의 중·장기적 연계 전략이 필요하다.

Purpose : This paper empirically investigates the relationships among new renewable energy generation (NRE), carbon dioxide emissions (CDE), real GDP (RGDP), International Trade (INTRAD), nuclear power generation (NUC) and thermal power generation (HEAT) in Korea. Research design, data, methodology : This study estimated the short-run and long-run effects among PNRE, PCDE, PRGDP, INTRAD, PNUC and PHEAT converted to per capita variables annual data from 1981 to 2020 using the ARDL model and a variety cointegration equation. Results : The PNRE, PNUC and PHEAT have a two-way and positive effect on INTRAD and PRGDP while changes in PNRE and PNUC have a bidirectional relationship with change in PRGDP and change in INTRAD has a unidirectional relationship with change in PNRE. Conclusions : The linkage strategy between the NRE and nuclear power generation should be established along with energy efficiency policies to expand the RGDP and INTRAD.

본 연구는 자기회귀시차분포(ARDL)모형과 bounds 검정을 이용하여 변액연금보험과 변액유 니버셜보험 초회보험료와 거시경제변수 간의 장기적인 관계를 추정하였다. 변액보험 수요를 연구할 때 는 종속변수로 수입보험료가 적절해 보이지만 수입보험료에는 초회보험료와 계속보험료가 모두 포함되 어 있어 수입보험료를 통해 거시경제변수와 보험수요 간의 관계를 정확하게 추정하기 어렵다. 더불어 초 회보험료는 보험에 대한 최초가입을 의미하므로 보험회사가 신규 보험가입자의 가입동기를 파악하는데 도움이 될 수 있을 뿐만 아니라 보험업을 감독하는 감독기관에게도 유용한 정보이다. 이러한 이유로 본 연구는 초회보험료에 집중하여 분석을 실시하였다. 변액보험은 보험료의 일부를 펀드에 투자하는 상품 이므로 초회보험료의 규모는 자본시장, 물가, 경기의 변화에 영향을 받는다. 그리고 변액보험 초회보험료 를 최초로 연구한 황진태･서대교(2010)를 참고하여 설명변수로 코스피수익률, 소비자물가상승률, CD유 통수익률, 5년만기 국고채수익률, 그리고 실업률을 사용하였다. 분석 결과는 다음과 같다. 첫째, 변수들을 이용하여 ARDL모형을 추정하고 이를 비제약 오차수정모형 으로 변환한 후 bounds 검정을 실시한 결과 변수들이 공적분되어 있음을 발견하였다. 둘째, 추정된 공적 분 벡터로부터 코스피수익률과 두 변액보험 초회보험료가 장기적으로 정(+)의 장기적인 관계를 맺고 있 음을 알 수 있었다. 반면 금리, 소비자물가상승률, 실업률은 초회보험료의 단기적인 변동에만 영향을 주 고 있었다. 요컨대 보험소비자들이 변액연금보험과 변액유니버셜보험에 최초로 가입하는데 있어 장기적 으로 유가증권시장의 변동만이 유의한 영향을 미치는 것으로 해석할 수 있다. CUSUM 검정과 CUSUM 제곱검정을 실시한 결과 추정된 모형들은 안정적인 것으로 나타났다. 마지막으로 본 연구에서 사용한 월 별 초회보험료는 월납보험료와 일시납보험료가 모두 포함되어 있어 보험수요를 정확하게 추정하는데 한 계가 있다. 그러나 이러한 한계는 수입보험료에 관한 정보를 제공하는 유일한 기관인 보험개발원이 수입 보험료 정보를 월납과 일시납으로 구분하여 제공하지 않기 때문이며 기존 연구인 황진태･서대교(2010) 도 이 문제로부터 자유롭지 않다. 보험 관련 연구가 가용한 자료의 부족으로 인해 어려운 상황에서 보험 개발원이 수입보험료에 대한 세부적인 정보를 외부에 공개한다면 보험회사나 감독기관에 필요한 연구를 하는데 도움이 될 것이다.

autoregressive distributed lag model and bounds test, we estimated the relationship between initial premiums of variable life insurance and macroeconomic variables. At first glance, premium income may look attractive to researcher for examining insurance demand. However, analyzing premium income does not often help us understand the relationship between insurance demand and macroeconomic variables because premium income includes initial premium and subsequent premium both. In other words, we cannot identify month-to-month changes in insurance demand from analyzing premium income. Besides, considering that initial premium is amount paid by new policyholder, life insurance companies can have insights about what make people purchase variable life insurance for the first time from investigating initial premium. This insight is also valuable to insurance regulatory authority. Since part of premiums of are invested in funds, initial premium volume of variable life insurance depends on stock prices, inflation rates, business cycles, and so on. Following Hwang and Seo(2010), we use KOSPI returns, inflation rates based on CPI, CD rates, 5-year KTB yields and unemployment rates as explanatory variables. What we found from analyses are as follows. First, estimating unrestricted ARDL models and conducting bounds tests, we found that initial premiums and macroeconomic variables are cointegrated. Interpreting the error correction term, we found that, in the long run, only KOSPI returns are positively related with statistical significance to initial premiums of variable annuity and variable universal life insurance. We also found that inflation rates, CD rates, 5-year KTB yields and unemployment rates influences their short-run dynamics. Conducting CUSUM test and CUSUM squares test, we found that estimated models are stable. Finally, since initial premiums that we use in this paper include not only regular premiums but also single premiums, using the initial premiums prevent us from estimating exact relationship between initial premiums and macroeconomic variables. This limitation comes from the fact that Korea Insurance Development Institute(KIDI) does not provide detailed information on insurance premium to the public. We hope that KIDI provides better information about insurance premium in near future so that we can have better understanding in insurance demand.

This paper is to set up the autoregressive distributed lag model in order to estimate the factor elasticity of industrial export and to analyze the determinants for the industrial export performance in the tourism service industries including retail·food ·lodging and transport·communication. The markup elasticities of export were estimated to be –0.368 and -0.355 respectively in retail·food·lodging and transport·communi- cation. The exchange rate elasticities of export were estimated to be 1.674 and 0.136 respectively. The import price index elasticities and interest elasticities were also estimated to be 0.162 and -0.663 in retail·food·lodging and -0.255 and 0.049 in transport·communication respectively. Thus the empirical result suggests that both import price index and interest rate have had more decisive effects on the industrial export performance in the tourism service industries, in particular, during the declining period in factor prices since the foreign currency crisis beginning in late 1997.

This paper aims to suggest the empirical evidences on the effects of the tourism revenue on the local financial self-sufficiency, analyzing the relationships among the tourism revenue, local tax revenue, and the financial self-sufficiency in Kangwon and Jeju Province. The paper derived the interregional input-output table for Kangwon and Jeju from the national model using the regional supply proportion of industry, and then estimated the elasticities of local tax revenue with respect to the tourism revenue and the tax revenue elasticities of the local financial self-sufficiency using the autoregressive distributed lag model. The tourism revenue elasticities of local tax were estimated to be 1.1211 and 0.7892 respectively in Kangwon and Jeju Province while the local tax elasticities of the local financial self-sufficiency proved to be 0.0937 and 0.0747 respectively. The empirical results imply that the effect of tourism revenue on the local financial self-sufficiency has proved to be greater in Kangwon Province than in Jeju.

본 연구는 말레이시아로 관광하는 중국관광객의 입국자수, GDP, CPI 및 교통비 등을 대상으로 1984년부터 2015년까지의 연별 자료를 바탕으로 자기회귀시차분포모형(ARDL)을 통해 탄력성을 파악하고자 하였다. 15세기의 중국은 외국과의 폐쇄된 문호개방정책을 실행하고 있었기 때문에 중국인들의 움직임은 매우 제한적이었으므로 중국과 타국간의 소통은 매우 미약하였다. 그러나 2001년 중국 정부는 세계무역기구(WTO)에 참여함으로써 개방정책을 시행하였다. 중국 정부는 외국인 투자에 다양한 인센티브를 제공함으로써 외국인 직접 투자 유도를 통해 경제를 개방하였다. 따라서 21세기 초반에 중국인의 인바운드 및 아웃바운드 움직임이 증가하였다. 2016년까지 중국은 가장 많이 방문한 세계 5대 관광지 하나이었고, 마찬가지로 외국으로 여행하는 중국관광객도 또한 증가하여 말레이시아는 이들의 대중적인 관광지로 선택되었다. 1990년에만 약 11만명의 중국관광객이 말레이시아를 방문하였으나, 2016년에는 약 141만 명으로 급격히 증가하였다. 본 연구는 말레이시아에 도착하는 중국관광객의 입국자수 증가에 영향을 미치는 주요 경제요소의 유의성을 파악하였다. 그들의 도착을 유도할 수 있는 다른 요소들 중에는 소득, 관광가격, 교통비 및 비공식적인 홍보 등이 있다. 아시아 경제위기와 SARS의 발발로 인한 단기 충격들이 말레이시아의 관광수요에 어떻게 영향을 미치는지 이해하기 위해 포함되었다. 본 연구에서 ARDL 모형과 오차수정모형(Error Correction Model)을 결합한 방법은 관광수요의 탄력성을 통계적으로 추정하기 위해 활용되었다.

This study was to investigate the elasticity in tourism demand of Chinese tourists visiting Malaysia through ARDL models by using Chinese tourists arrivals, GDP, CPI, transportation costs and others. When China was implementing an open-door policy with foreign countries in the early 15th century, the movement of Chinese was very limited, and then communication between China and other countries was very weak. However, the Chinese government persistently and entirely implemented an open-door policy by participating in the World Trade Organization(WTO) in 2001. The Chinese government has opened the economy through foreign direct investment by providing various incentives for foreign investment. As a result, inbound and outbound Chinese movements increased in the early 21st century. China was one of the top five most visited tourist destinations in the world by 2016, and also Chinese tourists traveling abroad increased, so they made Malaysia a popular tourists destination because of increase sharply to around 1.41 million. This study examined the significance of major economic factors affecting the increase in Chinese tourists arriving in Malaysia. Other factors that induced their arrival included income, tourism prices, transportation costs and promotional activities. Short-run shocks from the Asian economic crisis and the outbreak of SARS were included to understand how tourism demand in Malaysia was affected. Finally this study found that the combination of the ARDL and the Error Correction Model were useful to statistically estimate the elasticities of tourism demand.

This study investigate the effect of exchange rate volatility on trade balance for Vietnam during the period of 2010 from first quarter to the 2021 second quarter. The dynamic simulations of autoregressive distributed lag (DYNARDL) approach is applied to analyze positive and negative changes on trade balance of exchange rate volatibility, finalcial development, financial globalization and economic growth in Vietnam. The conditional variance of the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model is used to estimate the exchange rate volatility. The results indicated a significant positive effect of real exchange rate volatility on Viet Nam’s balance trade while there was no effect of nominal exchange rate volatility.

This study investigate the effect of exchange rate volatility on trade balance for Vietnam during the period of 2010 from first quarter to the 2021 second quarter. The dynamic simulations of autoregressive distributed lag (DYNARDL) approach is applied to analyze positive and negative changes on trade balance of exchange rate volatibility, finalcial development, financial globalization and economic growth in Vietnam. The conditional variance of the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model is used to estimate the exchange rate volatility. The results indicated a significant positive effect of real exchange rate volatility on Viet Nam’s balance trade while there was no effect of nominal exchange rate volatility.

This study analyzed the effect of income on the quality of imported grapes in Malaysia using annual data from 1991 to 2022. By using the Quantile Autoregressive Distributed Lag(ARDL) model, the effect of income on the quality of imported grapes was analyzed in consideration of long- and short-term as well as non-linear relationships. As a result of the analysis, there was a long-term equilibrium relationship between the quality of imported grapes, GDP per capita, exchange rate, and crude oil price. In both nonlinear and linear ARDL model results, income was analyzed to have positive effects on the quality of imported grapes in both the long and short-term. In addition, the long-term estimation results of Quantile ARDL showed that the difference in the effect of income on the quality of imported grapes according to the quantile was not significant, and the short-term estimation results showed that the positive effect was greater above the 70th quantile. The results of this study imply that the possibility of exports to Malaysia, a potential export destination for Korea, which is pursuing a diversification of grapes, is increasing due to the economic growth of Malaysia.

This study investigated the long-run and short-run impacts of investment and loan in the agricultural sectors by dividing the effect into production, income, productivity, self-sufficiency, and price volatility by utilizing the bivariate Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model. In overall, our results present that agricultural investment and loan had a long-run positive effect on value of production, productivity, agricultural income, self-sufficiency, and price volatility. However, the effects of investment and loan are focused on livestock sectors and labor productivity has not improved by those policies. Those results imply the policy of investment and loan in the agricultural sectors has some rooms to be improved. In turn, the government of Korea should redesign the policy of investment and loan in the agricultural sector to improve those policies effects to come up following mega-FTAs trends such as RCEP and CPTPP.

This paper is intended to develop the prediction model for the hourly heating load of a building, applying an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model, which reflecting the dynamic property of time series data. The information on the outside weather obtained from the meteorological office, and occupancy is only used for the modeling. The prediction accuracy of the ARDL model was 28.3 % CVRMSE (Coefficient of Variation of Root Mean Squared Error) without overall bias. This is an improvement of 21.2 % in comparison with the multiple linear regression (MLR) model, not having the time lagged terms of variables. It is confirmed that there is little nonlinear relationship between response and explanatory variables, when judging from the result of an artificial neural networks (ANN) model using the same input variables to the ARDL model. The effects of influencing factors such as outside temperature, solar radiation and occupancy on the hourly heating loads were analyzed through the coefficients of the ARDL model. The prediction model in this paper can be applied as the baseline for evaluating the future changes of the building heating loads.

동 연구는 휘발유 가격 수준에 따른 국제 유가에 대한 국내 가격 조정의 비대칭성을 분위수 자기회귀시차분포 모형을 사용하여 확인한다. 추정에 사용된 자료는 2008년 5월 첫 번째 주부터 2022년 10월 두 번째 주까지의 주간 평균 두바이유가, 정유사 휘발유가, 주유소 휘발유가이다. 추정은 두바이유가에 대한 주유소 휘발유 가격, 두바이유가에 대한 정유사 휘발유 가격, 정유사 휘발유 가격에 대한 주유소 가격의 변화, 세 가지에 대해 이루어졌다. 추정 결과, 두바이유가에 대한 정유사 휘발유 가격의 조정은 휘발유 가격의 모든 분위에 걸쳐 비대칭적으로 나타난 반면 두바이유가와 정유사 휘발유 가격에 대한 주유소 가격의 조정은 휘발유 가격의 분위수가 높을수록 비대칭적으로 나타났다. 이와 같은 결과는 휘발유 가격 변화에 따른 주유소의 재고 비용 변화에 기인하는 것으로 추측된다. 재고 비용에 대한 부담이 높을수록 주유소에게는 상승한 휘발유의 매입가격을 보다 적극적으로 판매가격에 전가하고자 하는 유인이 있다.

This study empirically analyzes that the asymmetry of domestic gasoline price adjustment to the crude oil price changes can vary depending on the level of gasoline price using quantile autoregressive distributed lag model. The data used are the weekly average Dubai price, domestic gasoline price at refiners and gas stations from the first week of May 2008 to the second week of October 2022. The study estimates three price transmission channels: changes in gas station gasoline prices in response to changes in Dubai oil prices, changes in refiners gasoline prices in response to changes in Dubai oil prices, and changes in gas station prices relative to refiners gasoline prices. As a result, the price adjustment of refiner's gasoline price with respect to Dubai oil price appears asymmetrically across all quantiles of gasoline price, whereas the adjustment of gas station prices for Dubai oil price and refiner's gasoline price tend to be more asymmetric as the quantile of gasoline price increases. Such a result is presumed to be due to changes in the inventory cost of gas stations. When the burden of inventory cost is high, gas stations have an incentive to more actively pass the increased buying price on their selling price.