Earticle

미세먼지는 단순한 환경 문제를 넘어 환경부 국가전략에 의해 추진되면서 정부는 2020년 미세먼지 를 최우선 과제로 선정했다. 배출원별 미세먼지 저감정책은 도시 위계에 따라 차등 시행됐다. 기존 미세먼지 관련 연구는 건강부터 사회 전반에 미치는 영향까지 전반적으로 이뤄졌다. 그러나 미세먼 지 배출원과 도시 위계에 따른 정책 요인의 동적 분석은 고려하지 않았다. 따라서 본 연구는 문헌검 토를 바탕으로 도시 규모별 시스템 다이내믹스를 활용해 미세먼지(PM10) 배출원의 인과적 루프를 도출하고자 한다. 이를 위해 1)기존 연구를 토대로 미세먼지 정책 변수 선정, 2)미세먼지 원인과 영향의 인과관계 조사, 3)미세먼지 발생의 동적 특성 파악, 4) 부문별 정책변수를 고려한 미세먼지 인과지도를 제시한다. 결과적으로 미세먼지 배출원은 인과관계 지도에서 사회경제적, 인구학적, 도시 공간적 변수와 관계를 가지며 도시별 미세먼지 저감정책의 차이에 따른 미세먼지 배출량 간의 영향관계를 확인할 수 있었다.

Fine dust was designated as a social disaster with top priority, a complex environmental problem, by the Ministry of Environment, Korea. in 2020. Policies to reduce fine dust from emission sources were differently implemented by city size. Previous research related to fine dust has dealt with both its impacts on health and its impacts on society as a whole. But, the studies did not consider changes in fine dust control factors, and did not employ dynamic analysis of policy factors according to city size. Therefore, this study intended to draw a causal loop of fine dust (PM10) emissions and effects using System Dynamics by city size considering policies. To reach this goal, this study has designed following research procedure: 1) to select factors that identify fine dust emission sources and the effects; 2) to investigate causal relationships between the causes and effects of fine dust; and 3) to draw a causal map of fine dust in consideration of policy variables by sectors by city hierarchy. As a result, the sources of fine dust included socioeconomic, demographic, and urban spatial variables, and the impacts of fine dust emissions due to differences in fine dust reduction policies by city size were identified in the causal map.

본 연구는 시스템다이내믹스 접근방법을 통해 도시공간 특성으로서 환경적, 경제적, 사회적 요인에 따른 대형화재 발생과 대형화재 피해 확산의 원인을 함께 분석하는 인과지도 모형을 구축하는데 목적을 두고 있다. 본 연구는 도시의 동태성을 보여주는 도시공간의 특성 요인의 변수를 일부 선행 연구를 통해 제한적으로 제시하고 있으나, 경제적 요인과 사회적 혹은 정책적 요인이 대형화재 발생 을 통제할 수 있는 중요한 요인임에도 불구하고 우리 사회의 필연적 사회변화상으로서 도시화 현상 을 반영하는 환경적 요인이 대형화재발생을 가속화하고 있다는 점에서 이를 해결하지 않고는 화재 발생이 대형화재로 확산되는 과정을 대응하기 쉽지 않을 것임을 예측가능하게 한다. 따라서 도시의 환경적 요인에 대한 다양한 변수를 발견하고 이들 간의 인과관계를 규명하여 문제를 해결하기 위한 대응방향을 모색하는 것 또한 화재발생의 사전에 차단하거나 확산을 방지하기 위한 정책이나 기술 만큼이나 중요한 요인으로 다루어질 필요가 있다.

Through the system dynamics approach, this study intends to provide basic data for the management of large-scale fires using a causal map that analyzes the impacts of environmental, economic and social factors on the causes of large-scale fires as well as the spread of fire damages in South Korea. Although this study focuses on a limited number of urban spatial characteristics showing urban dynamics according to the previous literature, it predicts difficulty of response to fire spread to a large scale without addressing environmental factors reflecting urbanization as inevitable social changes in modern society, despite the control of economic, social and policy factors. Therefore, the problem-solving strategy based on detecting various environmental factors of cities and identifying causal relationships among the factors needs to be considered as important as policies or technologies to prevent the occurrence or spread of large-scale fires.

급속한 도시화를 거쳐 도시 규모는 끊임없이 팽창하고 있으며 이로 인한 범죄는 현대사회가 직면한 주요한 사회문제 중 하나로 여겨지고 있다. 범죄에 대한 연구는 범죄원인을 설명하고자 했던 이론부터 부정적인 효과가 사회에 어떠한 영향을 미치는지 까지 전반적으로 진행되어 왔다. 하지만 범죄의 원인을 규명한 연구는 원인으로 규명된 지표의 인과관계를 밝히지 못하며, 변화하는 도시양상을 설명하지 못하는 한계가 있다. 본 연구는 선행 연구를 바탕으로 범죄 발생 의 주요 요인들을 선정하여 범죄 발생의 1)원인과 결과를 규명하고, 2)도시의 동태적 특성을 반영하며, 3)다방면의 요인들을 고려할 수 있는 도시 범죄발생에 대한 시스템 다이내믹스 인과 지도를 제시하였고 도시의 물리적 특성 및 인구통계학적 특성과 범죄 간 인과관계를 정립하였 다. 이를 통해 CCTV 등과 같이 미시적인 도시 물리환경요소부터 거시적 측면의 도시물리⋅인 구특성이 범죄 발생에 어떻게 영향을 미치는지 살펴 볼 수 있을 것이다.

With the advances of rapid industrialization and urbanization all over the world, the issue of urban crime has been considered as one of the major problems facing modern society. Most crime research focused on explaining the causes of crime based on a number of theories and assessing the negative effects of crime on society, but had limitations in describing the causal relationship among a cluster of indicators related to crime. Typically, a cross-sectional analysis fails to incorporate time-varying dynamic patterns of urban environments and urban life. This study identified the causes and consequences of urban crime in South Korea by focusing on several major determinants of urban crime suggested by the existing literature. Using system dynamics modeling, we constructed a causal loop map of urban crime which illustrates dynamic urban characteristics and causal mechanisms including various physical (e.g. CCTV), demographic (population density), socioeconomic (poverty) and policy (police resources) factors, along with their joint impacts on crime.

There is tremendous increasing demand on spectrum resource which is boosted by spread of cloud computing and M2M telecommunication as well as smart phone and tablet PC. Recently, spectrum sharing technology has drawn attention to the spectrum policy makers as a promising way to overcome limitation of scarce spectrum resource. To succeed in commercialization of spectrum sharing technology, it is necessary to prospect the future business ecosystem of spectrum sharing and develop appropriate policies and laws at the same time along with the advance of spectrum sharing technology. The purpose of this paper is to prospect future spectrum sharing ecosystem and analyze business ecosystem of spectrum sharing with casual loop map. With the causal map and system dynamics method, it is possible to analyze feedback loops which is not limited to linear thinking and build policies which optimize positive dynamics in business ecosystem of spectrum sharing.

본 논문에서는 인과관계 지식의 표현과 추론에 가장 대표적으로 사용되는 퍼지인식도(FCM, Fuzzy Cognitive Map)와 베이지안 신뢰 네트워크(BBN, Bayesian Belief Network)를 구조적으로 분석한다. 퍼지인식도와 베이지안 신뢰 네트워크는 의사 결정을 지원하는데 중요한 인과관계 지식을 표현하고 추론하는데 사용되는 가장 대표적인 프레임워크이지만 인과관계 지식응용 영역에서 두 프레임워크의 역할에 대한 구조적 비교 연구는 이루어지지 않고 있다. 본 논문에서는 두 프레임워크의 구조적 비교를 통해 퍼지인식도와 베이지안 신뢰 네트워크의 중요한 특징들을 추출하고, 이를 통해 인과 지식 공학에서 어떻게 퍼지 인식도와 베이지안 신뢰 네트워크가 이용되어야 하는지를 보인다. 인과관계 지식의 표현과 추론의 과정을 평가하는데 비교 평가를 위한 항목으로서 본 논문에서는 사용성, 표현력, 추론능력, 정형화와 완결성이 사용되었다.

Fuzzy Cognitive Map (FCM) and Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) are two major frameworks for modeling, representing and reasoning about causal knowledge. Despite their extensive use in causal knowledge engineering, there is no reported work which compares their respective roles. This paper aims to fill the gap by providing a qualitative comparison of the two frameworks through a systematic analysis based on some inherent features of the frameworks. We proposed a set of comparison criteria which covers the entire process of causal knowledge engineering, including modeling, representation, and reasoning. These criteria are usability, expressiveness, reasoning capability, formality, and soundness. The results of comparison have revealed some important facts about the characteristics of FCM and BBN, which will help to determine how FCM and BBN should be used, with respect to each other, in causal knowledge engineering.

본 논문에서는 인과관계 지식의 표현과 추론에 가장 대표적으로 사용되는 퍼지인식도(FCM, Fuzzy Cognitive Map)와 베이지안 신뢰 네트워크(BBN, Bayesian Belief Network)를 구조적으로 분석한다. 퍼지인식도와 베이지안 신뢰 네트워크는 의사 결정을 지원하는데 중요한 인과관계 지식을 표현하고 추론하는데 사용되는 가장 대표적인 프레임워크이지만 인과관계 지식응용 영역에서 두 프레임워크의 역할에 대한 구조적 비교 연구는 이루어지지 않고 있다. 본 논문에서는 두 프레임워크의 구조적 비교를 통해 퍼지인식도와 베이지안 신뢰 네트워크의 중요한 특징들을 추출하고, 이를 통해 인과 지식 공학에서 어떻게 퍼지 인식도와 베이지안 신뢰 네트워크가 이용되어야 하는지를 보인다. 인과관계 지식의 표현과 추론의 과정을 평가하는데 비교 평가를 위한 항목으로서 본 논문에서는 사용성, 표현력, 추론능력, 정형화와 완결성이 사용되었다.

Fuzzy Cognitive Map (FCM) and Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) are two major frameworks for modeling, representing and reasoning about causal knowledge. Despite their extensive use in causal knowledge engineering, there is no reported work which compares their respective roles. This paper aims to fill the gap by providing a qualitative comparison of the two frameworks through a systematic analysis based on some inherent features of the frameworks. We proposed a set of comparison criteria which covers the entire process of causal knowledge engineering, including modeling, representation, and reasoning. These criteria are usability, expressiveness, reasoning capability, formality, and soundness. The results of comparison have revealed some important facts about the characteristics of FCM and BBN, which will help to determine how FCM and BBN should be used, with respect to each other, in causal knowledge engineering.

This paper examines a mechanism of the Electronic Territory Expansion and the Information-oriented Society. Especially, a strategy for the territory development based on intelligence is suggested. The strategy is divided into a strategy for the domestic electronic territory and a plan for the global electronic territory. To examine the strategy and the plan, this paper is using the causal map analysis based on the System Thinking Approach. The causal map of the mechanism is characterized by a positive feedback loop. The paper has concluded that it is important to make the positive loops as a virtuous circle. It means that when a society dominates the advantageous position firstly in the field of intelligent and electronic territory, the competitiveness can grow in arithmetical progression.

시스템 사고는 음과 양, 흑과 백, 선과 악과 같이 이분법적인 사고의 기틀에서 비롯된다고 볼 수 있다. 왜냐하면 ＋와 －로 이루어지는 인과지도를 통하여 행위자의 판단틀을 가늠하기 때문이다. 따라서 이분법적인 사고의 옳고 그름을 논하기보다는 인과의 과정을 제대로 가늠하여 의사결정을 고민하는 것이 의미가 클 것이다. 노무현 정부의 부동산 정책은 부동산가격 안정화와 국토균형개발이라는 두 가지의 상반된 피드백 루프를 동시에 아우르려고 한 상충된 사고에 기인하였다고 볼 수 있다. 즉 양의 피드백 루프를 형성하는 국토균형개발과 음의 피드백 루프를 보이는 부동산가격안정화 정책은 전체적으로 부동산이라는 투기 대상으로 인식하고 있는 국민에게는 전 국토의 지가를 앙등시키는 부작용만을 낳게 되었다.

The policy of price control of apartment building and the policy of the balanced national development are both real estate-related policies. the object of real estate policy has tendency to regard the apartment building including real estate as investment for the future. the policy to control the price of real estate through supply and demand produces negative feedback loops, whereas the policy of the balanced national development, which left the price of the land risen, has positive feedback loops. The Roh administration overlooked the positive feedback loops of real estate. Trying to merge two oppositive feedback loops together has resulted in side-effects, the rise of land price.

The Korean government has constructed the national competency standards (NCS) rapidly since the year 2013. Also, it has pushed 2-year colleges to adopt NCS-based educational programs and public institutions to hire new employees by using NCS. It expects that NCS will deplete the mismatch between the requirements of employers and the abilities of employees. The purpose of this paper is to find correct accelerating policies for universities to adopt NCS-based educational programs. In order to achieve the purpose, primarily the government policies for NCS were analyzed by using causal map. And then, three accelerating policy recommendations for universities to adopt NCS were drawn by using the results of causal map analysis. The three recommendations are as follows. First, the quality of NCS should be kept highly. Secondly, the NCS-based hiring system of public institutions should also be standardized. Finally, the authorities of universities should be guaranted whenever they make educational programs.

본 연구의 목적은 중앙정부가 산림 관련 중요 권한을 지방자치단체로 이양할 경우 발생할 수 있는 영향을 사전에 예측하고 이를 통해 적절한 지방자치단체 이전에 대한 정보를 확보하는데 있다. 이를 위해 시스템 다이내믹스 방법론에서 사용되는 인과관계 맵 분석과 피드백 루프 분석을 활용한다. 산림행정권한을 지방자치단체로 이양하는 것을 전제로 파급효과에 대한 피드백 루프를 탐색한 결과 총 12개의 피드백 루프가 발견되었다. 산림행정권의 지방이양 문제는 강원특별자치도와 같은 새로운 형태의 지방자치단체가 별도의 권한과 특별권한을 요구할 경우 더욱 첨예한 문제가 될 수 있다. 산림행정권이 지방으로 이양되면 장단점이 동시에 발생할 수 있다. 이 경우 장점을 극대화하고 단점을 최소화하는 방안과 산림행정권한을 지방자치단체에 어느 정도까지 이양할 것인지에 대한 논의가 필요하다. 시스템 다이내믹스에 의한 인과관계도 분석과 피드백 고리 탐색은 중앙정부와 지방자치단체 사이의 권한이양 문제가 제기될 때 산림행정 권한을 보다 객관적으로 논의하는 데 직접적인 도움을 줄 수 있을 것이다.

The purpose of this study is to predict in advance the effects that may occur when the central government transfers important forest-related authorities to local governments, and through this, to secure information on appropriate transfer to local governments. To this end, causal map analysis and feedback loop analysis used in system dynamics methodology are utilized. As a result of searching for feedback loops on ripple effects on the premise of the transfer of forest administration authority to local governments, a total of 12 feedback loops were found. The issue of transfer of forest administration authority to local governments could become a more acute issue if a new type of local government, such as Gangwon Special Self-Governing Province, requests separate and special authorities. When forest administration authority is transferred to a province, both advantages and disadvantages can arise. In this case, it is necessary to discuss how to maximize the advantages and minimize the disadvantages, and to what extent forest administration authority should be transferred to local governments. The causal map analysis and feedback loop search by system dynamics will be able to provide direct help in discussing the forest administration authority more objectively when the issue of transfer of authority between the central and local governments is raised.

독서문화진흥정책은 「독서문화진흥법」이 제정되면서 독서문화 기반 조성, 독서 인프라 구축, 독서 인구의 확대 등 다양한 독서 정책이 마련되었다. 정부는 법률에 의거하여 ‘독서문화진흥기본계획’을 수립하여 정책을 추진하였고 독서 진흥을 위해 많은 시간과 정책 비용을 투입하였다. 하지만 독서문화진흥정책 생태계는 독서량이 감소하고 있는 등 자생력을 갖추지 못한 것으로 평가받고 있다. 이에 본 연구는 독서문화진흥정책 생태계의 활성화를 위해 시스템 사고를 기반으로 하여 정책 변수들을 모색하고 정책 변수들 간의 인과 지도를 분석하였으며, 분석을 위해 시스템다이내믹스를 활용하였다. 즉 정책 변수는 문헌 및 정책보고서 등을 통해 20개를 선정하였으며, 이러한 정책 변수들을 중심으로 독서문화진흥정책을 시스템다이내믹스를 통해 인과지도 및 피드백루프를 분석하였다. 분석 결과, 독서복지 체계 구축, 독서 운동 확대, 디지털 독서 콘텐츠 구축, 독서 정책 협력시스템 구축, 독서 인력양성, 독서문화 기반 확충, 우수 도서 출판 및 보급 확대, 정부의 독서 지원 정책 등 8개의 피드백루프가 나타났다.

With the enactment of the 「Reading Culture Promotion Act」, various reading policies were prepared such as the establishment of a reading culture foundation, the establishment of reading infrastructure, and the expansion of the reading population. In accordance with the law, the government established the ‘Basic Plan for the Promotion of Reading Culture’ and promoted the policy, and invested a lot of time and policy money to promote reading. However, the ecosystem of the reading culture promotion policy is evaluated as not having self-sufficiency as the amount of reading is decreasing. Therefore, this study explored policy variables based on system thinking and analyzed the causal map between policy variables to activate the reading culture promotion policy ecosystem. System dynamics was used for analysis. Twenty policy variables were selected through literature and policy reports. Based on these policy variables, the reading culture promotion policy was analyzed through system dynamics through causal guidance and feedback loop. As a result of the analysis, 8 feedback loops appeared. The feedback loop includes establishment of a reading welfare system, expansion of reading movement, establishment of digital reading content, establishment of a cooperative system for reading policy, nurturing of reading manpower, expansion of the foundation for reading culture, expansion of publication and distribution of excellent books, and the government's reading support policy.

The complexity of information and communication policy has been increasing due to its rapid changes and its expansions toward various fields. I used the2001, 2002 and 2003 White Papers on MIC(Ministry of Information and Communication Republic of Korea) as a reference and the Vensim PLE program to create a causal map. According to my analysis, no major feedback loop was found among the information and communication policies. Thus, it was impossible to conduct a causal map analysis on these policies. The causal map analysis is usually employed to understand a complex mechanism of entire policies by finding feedback loops among them. A lack of feedback loops makes it impossible to conduct the causal map analysis and means that the mechanism of such policies is even more complex to understand. The most important conclusion is that to consider feedback thought among the policies based on the systems thinking before making the policies.

There is tremendous increasing demand on spectrum resource which is boosted by spread of cloud computing and M2M telecommunication as well as smart phone and tablet PC. Recently, spectrum sharing technology has drawn attention to the spectrum policy makers as a promising way to overcome limitation of scarce spectrum resource. To succeed in commercialization of spectrum sharing technology, it is necessary to prospect the future business ecosystem of spectrum sharing and develop appropriate policies and laws at the same time along with the advance of spectrum sharing technology. The purpose of this paper is to prospect future spectrum sharing ecosystem and analyze business ecosystem of spectrum sharing with casual loop map. With the causal map and system dynamics method, it is possible to analyze feedback loops which is not limited to linear thinking and build policies which optimize positive dynamics in business ecosystem of spectrum sharing.

Road freight transport industry in Korea contains many and complicate problems such as over supply of the vehicle caused by rapid policy changes, illegal multilevel transactions, poor truck drivers working environment, lack of road freight transport related statistics and so on. Korean government has developed various logistics industrial policy trying to solve these problems in various ways. However, the relationship among the problems and action plans has been more and more entangled since the part of suggested policies have made another perverted problems. These complex structure of the toad freight transport industry in Korea makes difficult to identify and to solve the problems. Causal map method helps to give a clean picture to understand the complex industry at a glance. This study contributes for visualization of the causal relationships among the existing problems and related policy issues in the road freight transport industry in Korea by causal map. This study could be helpful to develop the actual road freight transport industrial policies including the illogical multilevel and unfair transaction in Korea.

A suggestion was made by drawing key issues through flow analysis on the ripple effect of the opening of the Arctic Ocean on the Korean economy and its industry. It aims to develop political measures for Korea to penetrate the Arctic Ocean from a macroeconomic perspective. In order to derive causal relationships, opportunities and risks for Korea were analyzed according to climate change, society and international politics as well as economic and industrial environments, with a causal map being created based on the country’s capacity. As a result, most of the derived issues directed technological and industrial aspects. As such, it is necessary to connect nurturing professional talents with projects for supporting polar region R&D and relevant fields. In particular, entering the Arctic Ocean would increase the possibility of breaking into the ocean industry; therefore, it is required to develop the industry along with the new Korean ocean industry and strengthen the profession. It is necessary to prepare systems to help companies penetrate the industry by predicting not only North Pole routes but also various projects and derived areas.

본 연구는 호주-중국 무역분쟁을 국제정치의 상호역학관계 관점에서 분석하였다. 연구목적을 달성하기 위해 시스템사고 이론에 기반하여 인과지도분석을 실시하였다. 연구를 통해 얻어진 결과는 다음과 같다. 첫째, 경제적 영역에서 시작된 무역분쟁은 다양한 영역으로 확산되면서 복잡한 국제정치시스템으로 진화하는 것으로 나타났다. 둘째, 다양한 변수들이 작동하는 국제관계 현실에서 절대적 가치만을 선호하는 중국의 보호된 가치(중화사상, 하나의 중국, 중국식 인권주의)는 정책결과의 확증편향을 유발하면서 국제관계에서 다양한 변수들의 동태적 변화를 인식하지 못하게 하는 원인으로 작용하는 것으로 나타났다. 셋째, 한국과 호주는 중국과의 외교관계에서 상당히 유사한 조건을 가지고 있다는 점에서 호주-중국의 무역분쟁에서 호주가 사용한 전략은 한국의 정책결정에 교훈을 주고 있다는 점을 발견할 수 있었다.

This study analyzed the trade dispute between Australia and China from the perspective of an inter-dynamic relationship of international politics. To achieve the research purpose, causal map analysis was conducted based on the theory of system thinking. The results obtained through the study can be largely summarized from three perspectives. First, it was found that trade disputes that began in the economic sphere evolve into complex international political systems as they spread to various areas. Second, in a reality of international relations in which diverse variables operate, China's protected values (Chinese ideologies, the one-China policy, and Chinese principles of human rights) were found to cause confirmation bias in policy results and they acted as the reason for a lack of recognition of dynamic changes in international relations. Third, given that Korea and Australia have similar conditions with regard to diplomatic relations with China, it was found that the strategy used by Australia in the Australian-China trade dispute could help Korea make policy decisions.

Due to the increasing use of very large databases, mining useful information and implicit knowledge from databases is evolving. However, most conventional data mining algorithms identify the relationship among features using binary values (TRUE/FALSE or 0/1) and find simple If-THEN rules at a single concept level. Therefore, implicit knowledge and causal relationships among features are commonly seen in real-world database and applications. In this paper, we thus introduce the mechanism of mining fuzzy association rules and constructing causal knowledge base form database. Acausal knowledge base construction algorithm based on Fuzzy Cognitive Map(FCM) and Srikant and Agrawal's association rule extraction method were proposed for extracting implicit causal knowledge from database. Fuzzy association rules are well suited for the thinking of human subjects and will help to increase the flexibility for supporting users in making decisions or designing the fuzzy systems. It integrates fuzzy set concept and causal knowledge-based data mining technologies to achieve this purpose. The proposed mechanism consists of three phases: First, adaptation of the fuzzy membership function to the database. Second, extraction of the fuzzy association rules using fuzzy input values. Third, building the causal knowledge base. A credit example is presented to illustrate a detailed process for finding the fuzzy association rules from a specified database, demonstration the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm.