Earticle

본 연구는 2015년부터 2023년까지 157개 중국 상업은행의 패널데이터를 활용하여 은행 효율성의 결정요인과 2021년 헝다그룹 사태의 영향을 실증적으로 분석하였다. System GMM 동태적 패널분석과 이중차분(DID) 분석 결과, 헝다사태는 중국 은행 효율성에 체계적이면서도 은행 유형별로 다른 영향을 미친 것으로 나타났다. 도시상업은행이 가장 큰 영향을 받은 반면, 디지털은행은 상대적으로 강한 회복력을 보였다. 또한 효율성의 높은 지속성과 외부 충격에 대한 느린 조정속도가 확인되었으며, 장기 효과가 단기 효과의 약 3배에 달하는 승수효과가 있음을 확인하였다. 본 연구는 중국 은행의 유형별 차별적 반응을 체계적으로 분석함으로써 한국 금융기관의 대중국 전략 수립에 실무적 시사점을 제시한다.

This study empirically analyzes the determinants of bank efficiency and the impact of the 2021 Evergrande crisis using panel data from 157 Chinese commercial banks over the period 2015-2023. Employing System GMM dynamic panel analysis and difference-in-differences (DID) estimation, the results indicate that the Evergrande crisis had systematic yet heterogeneous effects on Chinese banking efficiency across bank types. City commercial banks experienced the largest decline in efficiency, while digital banks demonstrated relatively strong resilience. The dynamic analysis reveals high persistence in efficiency and slow adjustment to external shocks. Long-term effects are approximately three times greater than short-term effects, indicating a significant multiplier effect. By systematically examining the differential responses across bank types, this study provides practical implications for Korean financial institutions in formulating their China market strategies.

본 연구에서는 중국, 프랑스, 독일, 일본, 한국, 미국의 패널데이터를 이용하여 가공단계 와 기술수준에 따라 수출 구조가 어떻게 형성되는지 분석하였다. 주요국의 대세계와 대중 국 패러다임 변화에 대한 분석결과, 기술수준이 높은(고위) 산업에서 중국의 약진이 눈에 띄고, 미국의 브랜드가치가 다른 주요국에 비해 월등히 높게 나타났다. 게다가 패널데이터 분석결과, 브랜드가치는 주요국의 대세계 및 대중국 수출에 정(+)의 영향을 미쳤으며, 특허고급화지수의 경우 대중국 수출에 정(+)의 영향을 미쳤다. 이러한 결과는 한국의 기업에 다음과 같은 시사점을 제공한다. 첫째, 글로벌 시장 진출과 수출 증대를 위해서는 브랜드가치를 높여야 한다. 둘째, 글로벌 시장에서 수출상품의 고급화와 GVC 전방참여를 높여야 한다.

This study investigates how the export structure is formed by processing stages and technology levels using panel data for China, France, Germany, Japan, Korea, and the United States. The analysis results of the paradigm shift of each country’s export to the world and China indicate that China is apparent in high-tech industries and that the brand power of the United States is relatively much higher compared to other countries. The empirical test results of panel data also demonstrates, that brand power is a crucial driving force behind their exports to the world and China in most countries and that patent sophistication index has a positive effect on their exports to China in most countries. These results suggest that Korean companies should make a great deal of effort to enhance brand power. Korean firms should further ameliorate the sophistication of their exports and expend a great deal of effort trying to increase the share of forward GVC participation.

GVC는 글로벌 금융위기를 기점으로 그 성장세가 정체되며 세계 경제성장에 대한 기여도 가 떨어지고 있으며, 이러한 변화는 적극적인 GVC 참여로 성장해온 한국 경제에 막대한 영향을 미칠 것이다. 이에 본 연구에서는 주요국의 생산성, 국제경쟁력, 기술수준, GVC 참여도 변화 등을 비교분석하고 GVC 참여와 경제성과 간 관계를 실증분석하였다. 분석결 과 OECD 회원국, 고소득국의 생산성과 기술수준이 타 그룹에 비해 높았고, 저위 산업을 제외한 모든 산업에서 비교우위에 있었다. 기술수준별 GVC 참여도의 경우 고위, 중고위 산업에서는 전방참여가 중저위, 저위 산업에서는 후방참여도가 높게 나타났다. GVC 참여 가 경제성과에 미치는 영향을 분석한 결과 GVC 참여는 생산성, 총액 및 부가가치 수출에 긍정적인 영향을 미치는 변수였으며, 특히, 고위, 중고위 산업에서는 전방참여, 중저위, 저위 산업에서는 후방참여가 생산성을 향상시키는 요인이었다. 즉, 한국이 앞으로 지속적 인 발전을 하기 위해서는 GVC에 적극적으로 참여해야하며, 특히 생산성 향상을 위해 고위, 중고위 산업에서의 전방참여도를 더욱 높일 필요가 있다.

The impacts of GVC(Gloval Value Chain) on economic performance are decreasing after the global financial crisis in 2007, Korean economy which has developed by active GVC participation, could be highly influenced by this change. This study compares productivity, international competitiveness, GVC participation etc. among major countries and analyzes how GVC participation affects economic performances. We show that OECD and high-income countries have high productivity and technology, and a comparative advantage in all industries except low-level industry. In case of GVC participation by technology level, forward participation is higher in high and mid-high industries; backword participation is higher in mid-low and low industries. In addition, we find that GVC participation has positive impacts on productivity, total and value-added exports. Particularly forward participation of high and high-mid industries, and backward participation of mid-low and low industries play a role in productivity improvement. Therefore, Korea is required active GVC participation for sustainable development, especially in need of high forward GVC participation of high and mid-high industries for productivity improvement.

연구는 전 세계 90개 국가를 대상으로 2000년부터 2016년까지의 자료를 활용하여 FDI flows와 경제성장의 관계를 실증적으로 분석하였다. 구체적으로 소득수준에 따라 고소득 국가와 중간 및 저소득 국가로 구분하여 FDI와 경제성장의 관계에 대해서 살펴보았다. 또한 2009년에는 글로벌 금융위기가 발생하면서 전 세계적으로 영향을 미치는 사건이 있었기 때문에 2000년부터 2008년까지와 2009년부터 2016년까지로 구분하여 각각의 분석결과를 도출하였다. 내생성을 고려한 패널 데이터 분석방법인 시스템 GMM을 사용하여 분석한 연구결과를 요약하면 다음과 같다. 글로벌 금융위기의 발생 이전에는 FDI flows와 경제성장 간에 U자형 관계가 유의하게 도출된 반면, 글로벌 금융위기의 이후에는 역U자형 관계가 유의하게 도출되었다. 이러한 결과는 FDI가 경제성장에 미치는 영향이 글로벌 금융위기 이전과 이후가 다르다는 것을 시사해준다. 고소득 국가의 경우 글로벌 금융위기가 발생하기 이전에는 FDI가 경제성장에 유의한 영향을 미치지 못하지만 금융위기 발생 이후에는 긍정적인 영향을 미치고 있다. 또한 중간 및 저소득 국가의 경우에는 글로벌 금융위기가 발생하기 전 FDI가 경제성장과 음(-)의 관계를 보였지만 금융위기의 발생 이후에는 이러한 관계가 역전 되어 FDI가 경제성장에 긍정적인 영향을 미칠 수 있다는 것을 의미한다.

This study analyzed the relationship between FDI flows and economic growth by using 90 countries data from 2000 to 2016. In order to draw concrete results, countries were identified as high income countries and middle & low income countries. Moreover, we divided the two analysis periods by global financial crisis, 2009. In this research, we used system GMM to solve the endogeneity problem between FDI flows and economic growth. As the analyses results by using all samples, there are the U-shaped relationships between FDI flows and economic growth before global financial crisis while two variables have inverted U-shaped relationship after 2009. In case of high income countries, there are no relationships between FDI flows and economic growth before 2009, although there is inverse U-shaped relationship after 2009. Thus, FDI flows could have the positive effects on economy after global financial crisis although it has no effects before that in high income countries. Furthermore, the effects of FDI flows on economic growth were changed from negative to positive as of global financial crisis in middle & low income countries. To sum up the matters, results of this paper mean that the effects of FDI flows in general case are different during or after crisis.

본 연구는 한국노동연구원의 사업체패널조사 1-5차년도 자료와 행정자료인「고용보험 DB」를 결합하여 구축한 『사업체-근로자 연계자료』를 활용하여 사업체 근로자의 연령구성과 생산성 및 인건비와의 관계를 실증분석 하였다. 사업체의 생산성은 1인당 부가가치로, 인건비는 1인당 노동비용으로, 사업체 근로자의 고령화 정도는 근로자의 연령구성으로 측정하였으며 동적패널모형을 활용하였다. 분석 결과, 생산성과 인건비 모두 사업체의 35-39세 연령대 근로자의 비율을 중심으로 역U자의 모습을 보였다. 즉, 35-39세 연령대 근로자 대신 더 젊은층의 근로자 혹은 더 고령층의 근로자 비중이 증가하는 경우 생산성 및 인건비에 부(-)의 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났다. 특히, 35-39세 연령대 근로자 대신 50세 이상 연령대 근로자가 증가할 때의 생산성 추정계수와 인건비 추정계수와의 차이가 30세 미만 연령대 근로자가 증가할 때의 생산성 및 인건비의 추정계수와의 차이보다 더 큰 것으로 나타났다. 이러한 분석 결과를 통해 고령근로자의 생산성 저하에 대한 기업의 우려는 타당하나, 동시에 기업은 이미 인건비 조정 등의 방법을 통해 고령근로자를 효율적으로 활용해 왔음도 확인할 수 있다.

In this paper, we use panel dataset from Korean linked worker-firm to analyse the effects of the workforce age structure on the productivity or labor costs. We measure ‘labor productivity’ as added value per capita, ‘cost of labor’ as labor cost per capita and estimate a dynamic panel model to study the effects of the workforce age structure on the productivity or labor costs. Empirical analysis results show that the workforce age structure is positively related to productivity and labor costs, but only up to the aged of 35-39. That is, we find that an increase in the proportion of younger workers or elder workers rather than the aged 35-39 has a negative effect on productivity and labor cost. In particular, the difference between the estimation coefficient of productivity and labor cost when the share of workers aged 50 or older is increased instead of the aged 35-39 is higher than the difference between the estimation coefficient of productivity and labor cost when the share of workers aged 30 or younger is increased instead of the aged 35-39. Our results exhibit that it is reasonable for firms to worry about declining productivity of elderly workers, whereas firms already used older workers efficiently, such as by adjusting their labor costs.

본 연구는 유가증권시장 및 코스닥시장에 상장된 제조기업들에 대해 1980년부터 2015년까지의 재무정보를 이용하여 거래신용(trade credit)의 특성 및 설명요인에 관한 실증분석을 실시하였다. 거래신용 관련 패널자료의 통계적 특성에 내재한 자기상관(auto-correlation) 및 내생성(endogeneity) 문제를 적절히 고려하고 동시에 관련 설명변수들을 통제하기 위해, 일반회귀분석(OLS)과 고정효과 패널모형(fixed effect panel model)과 시스템 적률법(system GMM)을 이용하여 회귀계수들을 추정하고 결과를 비교하였다. 주요결과는 다음과 같다. 첫째, 거래신용 규모는 시간이 지나면서 대체적으로 감소하는 행태를 보이고 있다. 둘째, 거래신용의 공급과 수요를 의미하는 매출채권과 매입채무 두 변수 모두 시계열적으로 뚜렷한 자기상관이 존재한다. 셋째, 거래신용의 크기는 기업의 수익성과 정비례하고 기업의 규모에는 반비례하며, 코스닥기업일수록 작은 것으로 보인다.

This paper studies on the empirical characteristics of the trade credit of Korean listed companies. Using the DataGuide DB, we retrieved the financial data of 2,244 manufacturing companies listed on KRX from 1981 to 2015. We adopted 3 methodologies – pooling OLS, Fixed effect(FE) panel model, and system GMM – and compared the estimated results. Our main findings are as follows: First, there are strong serial auto-correlations in the two trade credit variables – account receivables and account payables. The auto-coefficients lie between 0.56 and 0.76, controlling other relationships such as liquidity, tangibility, profitability, leverage, size, listed markets, financial distress conditions, subperiods, and industries. Second, there are overall decreasing trends over the past 30 years in the trade credit, though the statistical significance is not so robust under the some specifications. But we can observe considerable variations of these yearly trends by industries. Third, statistically the most important and significant factors are size and profitability. We interpret that these findings are related with the accessibility of external financing. But our evidence on this interpretation is not so clear and we need further elaborate empirical studies using more comprehensive and detailed firm-level information. Lastly, we find statistical significance in the profitability variable especially for account receivables and in the tangibility variable especially for account payables in the OLS estimation. This result implies that profitable firms are prone to provide more trade credit and firms with more tangibile assets tend to get trade credit more easily. But these results are not robust in the FE or system GMM estimations.

은행의 신용관리는 대출기준 및 대출자산의 구성변화를 통해 개별은행의 전체연체율 에 영향을 미친다. 2015년 하반기 이후 가계부채 구조개선을 위해 주택담보대출 중 분할상환의 비중을 확대하는 과정에서, 차주 상환능력에 대한 심사의 고도화로 신용관 리의 효율성이 증대되어 자산건전성이 개선되었다. 특히, 가계대출 가산금리는 은행 연합회 공시 신용등급이 동일한 차주라도 CB사 신용등급의 차이가 유의하게 반영되었 다. 분석기간 (2015.9-2018.5) 한국은행의 기준금리가 1.25~1.75%에서 유지된 가 운데 개별은행 전체연체율을 System-GMM으로 추정한 결과, 직전 3개월의 전체연 체율, 실질금리, 경기, 환율변화율, 주가수익률이 유의하였다. 신규대출 중 중소기업 비우량차주(5%이상) 대출비중의 증가는 증가요인, 주택담보 분할상환 비우량차주 (5%이상) 대출비중의 증가는 감소요인으로 작용하였다. 이는 대출자산 구성과 차주의 신용분포에 따라 연체율에 미치는 영향이 상이함을 시사한다.

Banks’ credit management impacts the terms of lending, and diversification of loan portfolios and thus affects the total loan delinquency ratios. We find that the rising shares of recurring payment mortgages, one of the policy measures of restructuring mortgage loans since the second half of 2015, made positive contributions to banks’ asset management by improving credit management in the process of evaluating borrowers’ credits. Banks differentiated lending interests for mortgage borrowers even when their bank-issued credit ratings were the same in consideration of the differences in credit ratings that the credit bureaus (CB) issue. Using individual bank-level monthly data from September 2015 to May 2018, to explain the total loan delinquency ratios, we consider the banks' lending behavior on small and medium-sized enterprise (SME) loans, recurring payment mortgages, one-time payment mortgages, personal loans, and personal lines of credit. During the period, the Bank of Korea maintained its base interest rate between 1.25 percent and 1.75 percent and we focus on the share of high-interest loans (over five percent) for relatively low-credit borrowers. We also include the business cycle, return on financial asset (KOSPI), changes in the foreign exchange rate (KRW/USD), and real interest rate that could affect borrowers’ payment ability. We adopt the system-GMM estimation to correct bias caused by the problem of endogeneity as financial ratios can be affected simultaneously by the bank management. The system-GMM has some advantages over the fixed effect model since it deals with the omitted bias for some time-varying variables such as the CEO’s trait. Among fifteen commercial banks, nine banks experienced CEO turnovers during the period. Macroeconomic variables are significant determinants of the banks’ total loan delinquency ratios. A rise in economic activity, an increase in stock prices, and domestic currency depreciation against USD can positively impact bank asset quality. However, a rise in real interest rates can worsen bank asset quality. Banks’ total loan delinquency ratios could be varied by varying both the composition of the loan types and the credit structures of the banks’ loans. While the increase of high-interest loans for non-prime borrowers in new SME lending raised the total loan delinquency ratios, the increase of high-interest loans for non-prime borrowers in new recurring payment mortgages lowered the total loan delinquency ratios. This is due to the differences in the credit structures of non-prime borrowers of high-interest loans between SME loans and mortgage loans. Moreover, we analyze how the banks determine the lending interest rates for household loans and SME loans as it matters to asset quality. The Korea Federation of Banks provides the bank-issued credit ratings of household loan borrowers into five categories, from 1~2 grades at the top to 9~10 grades at the bottom as well as the CB credit ratings. The stages of bank-issued credit ratings of SME loans are 1~3 grades at the top, grade 4, grade 5, grade 6, and 7~10 grades at the bottom. For household loans, even when the bank-issued credit ratings are the same, we find a fair amount of heterogeneity in the lending interest rates depending on the differences in borrowers’ CB-issued credit ratings. This implies that banks’ credit management has improved since the second half of 2015. We especially focus on low-credit borrowers of mortgage loans whose bank-issued credit ratings are 7~10 grades. There exist noticeable differences in the borrowers’ CB credit ratings depending on the types of mortgage loans. For low-credit borrowers of high-interest mortgage loans, the average CB credit quality of the recurring payment mortgages is superior to that of the one-time payment mortgages. This explains the reason why the rising shares of high-interest recurring payment mortgage loans lowered the total loan delinquency ratios of commercial banks. Local banks are more active players in the process of this diversification than nationwide banks. For SME loans, the bank-issued credit ratings significantly affect the lending interest rates. When it comes to the credit qualities of borrowers, the default probabilities of the non-prime borrowers of SME loans are more widely distributed with higher upper and lower bounds than those of household loan non-prime borrowers. The average default rate is much higher in SME loans compared to household loans, which reinforces the importance of credit structures in bank-loan diversification and explains the reason why rising shares of high-interest loans in new SME loans worsened the bank asset quality. Improving the bank’s management efficiency in SME loans could benefit the banks as it provides some opportunities to improve banks’ asset quality in the process of bank-loan diversification in efforts to lower the risk level associated with their bank-loan portfolios. Banks adjust their lending interest rates in consideration of return on asset (ROA), costs, and other factors as well as borrowers’ credits. Our findings suggest that bank-loan portfolio diversification and efficient bank credit management together can reduce the bank’s total delinquency ratios.

본 논문에서는 음성과 얼굴 정보를 분석하여 자동차환경에서 운전자를 검증하는 기술을 소개한다. 음성정보를 이용한 화자검증을 위해서는 잘 알려진 Mel-scale Frequency Cepstral Coefficients(MFCCs)를 음성 특징으로 사용하였으며, 동영상을 이용한 얼굴검증에 대해서는 AdaBoost를 이용하여 검출된 얼굴 영역에 대해 주성분 분석을 수행하여 데이터의 크기가 현저히 줄어든 특징벡터를 추출하였다. 기존의 화자검증 방식에 비해 본 논문에서는 추출된 음성 및 얼굴 특징들을 Gaussian Mixture Models(GMM)-Supervector기반의 Support Vector Machine(SVM)커넬 방식에 적용하여 운전자의 음성과 얼굴을 효과적으로 검증하는 방식을 제안하였다. 실험결과 제안한 방법은 단순한 GMM 방식이나 SVM 방식보다 운전자 검증성능을 향상시킴을 알 수 있었다.

This paper presents biometrical driver verification system in car experiment through analysis of speech, and face information. We have used Mel-scale Frequency Cesptral Coefficients (MFCCs) for speaker verification using speech information. For face verification, face region is detected by AdaBoost algorithm and dimension-reduced feature vector is extracted by using principal component analysis only from face region. In this paper, we apply the extracted speech- and face feature vectors to an SVM kernel with Gaussian Mixture Models(GMM) supervector. The experimental results of the proposed approach show a clear improvement compared to a simple GMM or SVM approach.

본 연구는 주택가격 상승 충격이 저출산에 미치는 영향과 각 변수들의 합계출산율 변동 기여도를 추정하였다. 본 연구는 기존 연구들이 시도하지 않았던 샤플리 분해와 패널 VAR의 예측오차분산분해를 통해 과거 출산율 하락 경험치에 대한 각 변수들의 기여도와 각 변수의 향후 기여도를 추정하여 차별성이 있다. 본 연구의 주요 분석결과는 다음과 같다. 우리나라 합계출산율의 하락은 최근 합계출산율 하락 흐름에 강한 영향을 받았으며, 이 영향력은 향후 미래에도 지속될 것으로 전망되었다. 주거비의 경우는 과거 주택 매매가격은 전세가격에 비해 상대적으로 합계출산율 변동에 미친 기여도가 작았으나, 향후 미래에는 장기적으로 그 영향력이 커질 것으로 전망되었다. 주택 매매가격, 전 세가격 이외 사교육비 역시 합계출산율 하락에 주요 원인으로 작동하였음을 실증하였고, 높은 사교육비 부담이 장기 적으로도 합계출산율을 낮출 것으로 전망되었다.

This study estimated the impact of the shock of housing price increase on the total fertility rate and the contribution of each variable to changes in the TFR. This study is differentiated by estimating the contribution rate of each variable to the fertility rate through the Shapley decomposition and the panel VAR's forecast error variance decomposition, which previous studies have not attempted. The main results of this study are as follows. First, the decline in the TFR in Korea has been strongly influenced by the recent decline in the total fertility rate, and this influence is expected to continue in the future. In the case of housing costs, in the past, housing sales prices had a relatively small contribution to changes in the total fertility rate compared to the jeonse prices, but their influence is expected to increase in the long term in the future. It has been demonstrated that private education expenses other than housing sale price and Jeonse price also acted as a major cause of the decline in the total fertility rate.

많은 연구들이 정부 R&D투자의 성과의 한 측면으로서, 정부 R&D투자가 민간 R&D투자에 미치는 효과(구축효과 또는 보완효과)를 분석하여 정부 R&D투자와 민간 R&D투자의 효율적인 역할분담에 관해서 논의하고 있다. 그러나 이들 연구들은 시기별로 국가 과학기술정책 기조 또는 방향을 고려하지 않고 있다. 이로 인해, 정부 R&D투자의 구축효과 또는 보완효과에 관해서 전체 표본기간을 하나의 분석단위로 포괄하여 분석함으로써 정책면과 산출면을 연관시킨 국가 R&D투자 전략에 대한 시사점을 분석할 수 없는 단점을 지니고 있다. 이에 본 연구는 과학계량학적 방법을 이용하여 R&D투자 효율성과 관련된 국가 과학기술정책 기조 변화를 분석한 연구결과를 활용하여, 과학기술 정책기조의 변화에 따른 정부 R&D투자의 성과에 대해 분석함으로써 국가 R&D투자의 전략 수립과 효율적 투자재원 배분에 대한 주요 시사점을 도출하였다. 정부 R&D투자와 민간 R&D투자의 관계를 Regime별로 분석한 결과에서는 ‘우선순위와 선택과 집중’을 중시하는 정책기조(Regime 2)의 경우에 민간 R&D투자를 부양하는 효과가 가장 크게 나타났는데, 이는 우선순위와 선택과 집중적인 투자를 강조하는 과정에서 정부 R&D투자와 민간 R&D투자의 역할분담에 대한 고려가 이루어 졌기 때문에 민간 R&D투자 부양효과가 가장 큰 것으로 해석될 수 있다. 민간과 정부의 역할 분담과 관련해서 정부 R&D투자가 민간 R&D투자를 촉진시키는 중장기 정책방향은 우선순위를 통한 선택과 집중투자가 정책이슈로 부각되어야 함을 시사한다.

The government should have the integrative line of sight over the life cycle of the R&D activities from planning stage to performance evaluation. The effective R&D system, which has a clear link between strategy and performance evaluation, must reflect the national requirement for R&D and resource constraints. To do this, the government can better achieve the policy objective using the relationship between the national and private the sector R&D-complements or substitutes. In this line, our study is unique in that the R&D policy is analyzed in context with the performance of the policy, reflecting the basis of policy regime in the specific period using the scientometrics. Each regime shows its unique policy characteristics in terms of the R&D performance. For example, the private sector R&D investment is most stimulated with the ‘policy regime 2’ which emphasize to ‘identify the priority and focus on the identified areas’. This result show that transfer and diffusion of the R&D results can be facilitated through the well coordinated role between the government and the private sector. The result of this study can be used to formulate the national R&D strategy and the R&D performance evaluation.

In speaker Identification systems both parametric and nonparametric probability modeling is used. The Gaussian model is the basic parametric model that is used and this model is the basis of other sophisticated and it can be performed in a completely text independent situation. However, it sounds efficient to speaker identification application, but it results long time processing in practice. In this paper, we propose a decision function by using vector quantization (VQ) techniques to decrease the training model for GMM in order to reduce the processing time. In our proposed modeling, we take the superiority of VQ, which is simplicity computation to distinguish between male and female speaker. Then, GMM is applied into the subgroup of speaker to get the accuracy rates. Experimental result shows that our hybrid VQ/GMM method always yielded better improvements in accuracy and bring reduce in time processing. All the experiments have been done in both direct recording speech and mobile phone speech signals.

산업단지는 지역 경제의 핵심 성장축이자 지방정부 산업정책의 주요 수단으로서 기능해왔다. 특히 정부와 지방자치단체는 예산을 통해 산업단지 기반시설을 확충하고 기업 유치 및 생산성 제고를 도모해 왔으나, 재정투입이 실제로 생산성 변화에 어떠한 영향을 미치는지에 대한 실증적 연구는 부족한 실정이다. 이에 본 연구는 산업단지별 생산성 변화를 측정하기 위해 총요소 생산성 지수(MPI)를 활용하였고, 효율성 변화(EC)와 기술변화(TC)로 구분하여 분석하였다. 또한 동태적 패널 분석 기법인 System GMM을 적용하여 예산의 시차효과를 반영함으로써 내생성 문제를 통제하고 산업단지의 생산성에 미치는 지방 정부의 재정 영향력을 면밀하게 파악하였다. 특히 클러스터 분석으로 산업단지를 생산성 유형에 따라 세 개의 군집으로 구분하였으며, 군집별 System GMM 분석을 통해 지방정부 예산의 효과가 산업단지 특성에 따라 다르게 나타나는지 파악하고자 했다. 분석 결과, 산업단지 조성 예산의 증가가 국가산단, 일반산단, 농공산단의 산단 유형별로 기술 변화(TC)의 생산성은 증가시키지만, 효율성 변화(EC) 및 총요소 생산성(MPI)에 대해서는 전반적으로 유의미한 영향력이 없었다. 특히 효율성 변화(EC)와 총요소 생산성(MPI)은 산업단지의 제도적 특성보다 입지 여건이나 배후지 토지면적 등 외생적 요인의 영향을 크게 받는 것으로 분석되었다. 본 연구의 결과는 산업단지 정책의 정합성을 확보하기 위해서는 지방정부가 생산성 변화 유형에 따른 맞춤형 예산 전략을 설계할 필요가 있음을 시사하며, 산업단지 성과를 측정함에 있어 선행연구와 차별화된 동태적 분석 틀을 제시했다는 점에서 의미가 있다고 하겠다.

Industrial complexes have served as key growth engines for regional economies and as major policy instruments for local governments. While central and local governments have expanded infrastructure and promoted enterprise attraction and productivity enhancement through fiscal investment, empirical studies examining the actual impact of such budget allocations on productivity changes remain limited. This study employs the Malmquist Productivity Index(MPI) to measure productivity changes in industrial complexes and decomposes it into Efficiency Change(EC) and Technical Change(TC). To capture the lagged effects of budgetary inputs and address endogeneity, the study applies a dynamic panel analysis using the System Generalized Method of Moments (System GMM). In particular, industrial complexes are classified into three clusters based on productivity characteristics through cluster analysis. Subsequently, GMM estimation is conducted for each cluster to explore how the effects of fiscal inputs differ by industrial complex type. The results show that increases in budget allocations positively affect Technical Change(TC) in specific institutional types such as national, general, and agro-industrial complexes. However, no statistically significant effects are observed on Efficiency Change(EC) and Malmquist Productivity Index(MPI) overall. Instead, EC and MPI are found to be more strongly influenced by exogenous factors such as locational conditions and the size of hinterland areas, rather than by the institutional characteristics of the complexes. This study highlights the need for local governments to design customized fiscal strategies according to different types of productivity changes in order to enhance policy coherence. Furthermore, it offers a differentiated dynamic analytical framework for assessing industrial complex performance, providing meaningful implications for both theory and practice.

본 연구에서는 1990년대 이후 18년간의 OECD 26개국 패널 데이터를 활용하여 출산율 고양에 효과적인 정책수단이 무엇인지 검증하였다. 이를 위하여 기존 연구들에서 다루어 온 사회정책 외에 정부의 교육책임성을 주요 변수로 활용하였으며, 각 프로그램의 전달 형태를 사회서비스와 현금으로 구분하였다. 분석기법으로는 제도 수준의 변수들이 모델이 투입될 때 발생할 수 있는 내생성의 문제를 통제하기 위해 전기 종속변수의 값을 도구변수로 활용하는 System-GMM을 활용하였다. 주요결과는 다음과 같다. 첫째, 의무교육기간, 정부의 공교육비지출비중 등 정부의 교육책임성이 클수록 출산율이 높아지는 것으로 나타났다. 둘째, 영유아보육(ECEC)은 출산율 고양에 항상 효과적이었으며, 사회적 속성을 통제한 상태에서는 육아휴직지원 역시 효과성을 보였다. 셋째, 노령지출은 출산율에 부적 영향을 미치는 것으로 드러났다. 이는 확정급여 형태의 연금제도 때문으로 추정된다. 넷째, 가족수당이나 주거지출, 여성경제활동참가율, 실업률은 출산율과 유의미한 영향을 드러내지 않았다. 이러한 분석결과는 출산 전후에 단기적으로 주어지는 현금 형태의 수당이나 지원금보다는 영유아 시기 및 청소년기까지의 장기적인 양육비용을 좌우하게 되는 보육과 교육서비스의 확대가 효과적일 것임을 시사한다.

This study analyzed what policy measures could be effective in raising fertility rates using 18 years of panel data on 26 OECD countries focusing on the government’s responsibility for education and social policies through the System-GMM estimation, which is used to correct bias caused by the problem of endogeneity. To capture the precise policy effect, each social policy program is added to the estimate model at the program level and each programs are interpreted by type of expenditure: cash or service. The results shows the government’s responsibility for education and ECEC program have statistically significant positive effect on fertility rate. The effect of cash benefits on maternity leave was also positive after controlling for social conditions. Old-age programs shows negative effect on fertility for presumed long-term effect of the defined benefit pension system. Finally, cash benefits for child-bearing or family allowance are not significant. In order to boost the low fertility rate, policy makers should consider social service programs including education and ECEC, which compensate child care cost in the long-term perspective rather than cash benefit programs whish compensate relatively short-term care cost.

The system GMM estimator in dynamic panel data models which combines two sets of moment conditions, i.e., for the differenced equation and for the model in levels, is known to be more efficient than the first-difference GMM estimator. However, an initial optimal weight matrix is not known for the system estimation procedure. Therefore, we suggest the use of `a suboptimal weight matrix' which may reduce the finite sample bias whilst increasing its asymptotic efficiency. Our Monte Carlo experiments show that the small sample properties of the suboptimal system estimator are much more reliable than any other conventional system GMM estimator in terms of bias.

Financial development has strongly influenced the pattern of income distribution in post-reform China. In this paper, using Chinese provincial data over the period of 1986-2000 and applying the Generalized Method of Moment (GMM) techniques, we investigate the finance-inequality nexus in urban China. Empirical results show that China’s financial development significantly helps to reduce urban income inequality. However, these positive distributional gains from financial sector development have been severely offset by the increased urban unemployment and massive layoffs brought about by the implementation of radical urban reforms and the restructuring of state-owned enterprises.

For 106 countries over 1969-2004, this paper revisits the relationship between openness, education and economic growth using the System Generalized Method of Moment (GMM) approach. Trade and growth are usually positively correlated and capital formation appears to be an important channel through which trade brings growth. There generally exists a positive relationship between FDI inflow and economic growth for a subset of non-OECD countries. The System GMM estimator improves substantially the estimate of the impact of education on growth relative to the models which focus on within-country changes in education, adding information on cross-country variation in education levels.

Purpose ? Based on Porter’s Diamond Model of national competitive advantage and New Trade Theory, this paper examines how domestic market size, manufacturing base, and trade openness affect a country’s trade specialization in the wind energy industry, while allowing for path dependence and controlling for endogeneity. Design/Methodology/Approach ? Trade Specialization Index (TSI) is utilized as a proxy measure of the international competitiveness covering 46 countries from 2011 to 2023. It employs the two-step System GMM estimator developed by Blundell and Bond (1998). The TSI is calculated from six key components using HS 2022 codes from UN Comtrade data (2024). To address potential endogeneity, six exogenous instrumental variables are added. Findings ? The wind energy industry shows a dynamic and path-dependent structure, which means prior performance has an effect on current and future performance. Empirical results suggest that countries with larger domestic markets, stronger manufacturing capabilities, and higher trade openness tend to record higher trade specialization. The results pass all diagnostic tests such as AR(2), Hansen J, and Difference-in-Hansen, and are robust to the choice of external instrument. Research Implications ? Since trade specialization is regarded as highly persistent, early and sustained policy intervention may be more effective than short-term measures, as conditional rather than a definite causal implication. Because all three independent variables affect TSI, a balanced strategy is more preferable than the single-variable-focused approach. Based on these results, this study provides an econometric foundation for wind energy industrial policy in the global energy transition.

The paper aims at contributing to the debate on conditional convergence across Chinese provinces by using the most recent techniques of dynamics panel data models. The analysis covers twenty-nine Chinese provinces from 1995 to 2009 and is based on the estimation of growth equations using system GMM estimator. Three main results can be drawn from our empirical investigations. First, investment in physical capital and education have played an important role in promoting economic growth. Second, the hypothesis of conditional convergence is verified over the period 1995-2009. Third, Chinese provinces have converged more quickly over their steady-state level during the period 2004-2009. Finally, we suggest that the acceleration of the speed of conditional convergence in the recent years may be a consequence of the implementation of regional development programs during the 2000s.

Purpose: This study examines the impact of Aid for Trade (AfT) on government tax revenue in developing countries, with a particular focus on the differential effects of its key components: trade-related Infrastructure (INF), Building Productive Capacity (BPC), and Trade Policy Regulation and trade-related adjustments (TPR). Originality: While existing literature largely analyzes ODA in aggregate terms, this study contributes to the literature by disaggregating AfT and assessing its sector-specific effects on domestic resource mobilization and fiscal capacity across heterogeneous institutional and economic contexts. Methodology: Using a panel dataset covering 112 recipient countries and 29 donor countries over the period 2005?2019, the analysis employs the System GMM estimator to address endogeneity and persistence in tax revenue. Robustness checks are conducted using OLS and PPML estimators. Result: The results indicate that AfT has a statistically significant and positive effect on government tax revenue overall. Among the AfT components, TPR exhibits the strongest and most robust impact, suggesting that improvements in trade policy frameworks and regulatory capacity play a central role in enhancing fiscal performance. BPC shows a moderate positive effect, whereas INF does not generate a significant short-term impact. Interaction analyses further reveal complementary effects between AfT and other forms of aid, underscoring the importance of coordinated aid strategies. Conclusions and Implication: The findings confirm that sector-targeted AfT contributes to fiscal sustainability in developing countries, underscoring the importance of governance-sensitive and well-coordinated interventions for enhancing long-term domestic revenue mobilization.

Purpose: This study investigates the role of public-private partnerships (PPP) in shaping the effectiveness of marine and fisheries official development assistance (ODA) in developing countries, with a particular focus on how public and private participation mechanisms influence marine and fisheries development performance. Originality: Previous studies have primarily focused on individual factors influencing marine and fisheries development, while relatively limited attention has been paid to interactions among these factors. This study develops a Marine and Fisheries Development Index (MFDI) and examines the interaction between marine and fisheries ODA and public-private partnerships (PPP), providing a more comprehensive assessment of marine and fisheries development performance. Methodology: The analysis is based on panel data covering 99 developing countries from 2010 to 2023. The MFDI is constructed using indicators related to fisheries production, aquaculture production, and marine protected areas (MPAs). Fixed effects (FE) and System GMM estimators are employed to address unobserved heterogeneity, endogeneity, and dynamic effects. Result: The empirical results indicate that neither marine and fisheries ODA nor PPP participation mechanisms alone exert statistically significant effects on marine and fisheries development performance. In addition, the interaction term between ODA and PPP participation mechanisms does not exhibit a statistically significant effect in the revised dynamic specification. However, the lagged dependent variable shows a strong positive and statistically significant coefficient (β = 1.0029, p < .01), suggesting a high degree of persistence and path dependency in marine and fisheries development outcomes. Conclusions and Implication: The results indicate that short-term financial support alone is unlikely to substantially improve marine and fisheries development outcomes. Instead, sustained institutional continuity and long-term policy coordination appear to play a more important role. Marine and fisheries cooperation programs may require longer implementation horizons and more stable institutional coordination than short-term project-based approaches.