Earticle

본 논문에서는 우리나라의 부품소재산업을 육성하기 위한 다양한 정책모의실험을 위하여 부품소재산업을 중심으로 한 CGE(Computable General Equilibrium) 모형을 구축하였다. 부품소제산업과 관련된 주요 정책대안무로서 법인세 인하, 보조금 지급 및 R&D투자 지원정책이 경제의 효율성 및 형평성에 미치는 파급효과를 분석하였다. 분석 결 과 첫째로, 효율성 측면에시 동일한 재원을 이 용하는 경우 R&D투자 지원이 법인세인하나 보조금지급 정책보다 경제의 총생산량을 증가시키는 효과가 더 크며, 소비와 투자 및 GDP에 미치는 양(+)의 효과도 더 큰 것으로 나타났다. 둘째로 형평성 분석 결과 역시 R&D투자지원 정책은 소득분배를 개선시키는 반면 여타 정책은 소득분배를 악화시키는 것으로 드러났다. 따라서 전반적으로 통일한 재원을 갖고 부품소재산업을 지원 하는 정책을 선택하는 경우 R&D투자 지원이 최우선 정책이 되어야 한다고 볼 수 있다. 셋째로, 통일한 정책을 추진하는 경우 부풍소재산업에 지원하는 것이 완성품산업에 지원하는 경우보다 거시경제 전반에 미치는 파급효과가 더 양호 한 것으료 드러났다. 따라서 선택과 집중의 원칙에 의해서 완성품산업보다는 부품소재산업에 지원하는 것이 거시경제 전체로 볼 때 더 바람직한 것으로 밝혀졌다.

In this paper, we examine the effects of various industrial policies on the Korean economy using a dynamic general equilibrium model. We consider industrial policies such as corporate income tax and subsidy as well as R&D subsidy policy. In the model we classify household sector into 10 income groups and classify production sector into 38 industries. In particular we distinguish parts and material industry from final good industry. Policy simulation is designed to investigate the difference in policy effects between parts and material industry and final good industry. Also we try to find out which policy is better in terms of efficiency and equity criteria using the same amount of funds. Findings of policy simulation are as follows. First, corporate income tax cut policy is better than subsidy policy in terms of the effect on GDP, capital formation during 2007-2030 period. Second, when the government adopts either corporate income tax cut or subsidy increase, the support for the parts and material industry is more effective than the support for the final good industry in terms of output increase and labor supply and capital formation. Third, when it comes to the R&D subsidy policy, the parts and material industry subsidy is better than the final good industry in terms of the output effect and technology transfer effect. Finally the R&D subsidy policy is more persistent and effective than tax and subsidy policy in terms of output effect and other macroeconomic effects.

본 연구는 국가 AI 경쟁력을 정태적 순위 비교에 그치지 않고, 역량이 축적·확산되는 구조적 경 로와 정책 개입의 시간지연 효과를 규명하기 위해 시스템 다이내믹스(System Dynamics) 기반 분 석을 적용하였다. 분석 범위는 OECD 38개국이며, Tortoise Media의 Global AI Index가 제시하는 구 현(Implementation)·혁신(Innovation)·투자(Investment) 3대 축의 2023–2025년 점수(0–100 정규 화)를 활용하였다. 분석결과, OECD 내 점수 분포는 상위 소수 국가에 편중되어 있으며, 특히 투자 축에서 국가 간 격차가 크게 나타나 상위권 도약을 좌우하는 변별력 있는 축으로 기능하는 것으로 확인되었다. RQ1에 대해, 구현·혁신·투자는 ‘투자→혁신→채택(구현)→시장수요/상용화→추가투자’ 로 연결되는 강화루프와 ‘리스크 사건→신뢰 저하/규제·준수부담 증가→채택·투자 둔화’의 균형루프 가 동시에 작동하는 구조로 상호 영향을 주는 것으로 분석된다. RQ2에 대해, 정부 AI 예산은 R&D·공공 인프라를 통해 혁신(및 간접적으로 투자)을, 교육·훈련은 인재공급과 R&D 생산성을 통해 혁 신·구현을, 민간 AI 투자는 상용화·스케일업을 통해 투자 축을 가장 직접적으로 강화하며, 효과는 1.5–3년 내외의 시차를 두고 누적적으로 나타나는 것으로 분석되었다. RQ3에 대해, 한국이 투자 점수 OECD 3위에 도달하기 위해서는 민간 투자 레버리지의 상향을 핵심으로 하되 정부전략과 인재 기반을 결합한 패키지형 조합이 필요하며, 본 연구의 대표 조합(G=1.2, P=1.3, E=1.1)이 그 최소 조건 중 하나로 도출되었다.

This study applies a System Dynamics-based approach to move beyond static rank comparisons of national AI competitiveness and to identify the structural pathways through which capabilities accumulate and diffuse, as well as the time-lagged effects of policy interventions. The analysis covers 38 OECD countries and uses normalized (0-100) scores for 2023-2025 on the three pillars-Implementation, Innovation, and Investment-presented in Tortoise Media’s Global AI Index. The results show that score distributions within the OECD are concentrated among a small number of top countries. In particular, cross-country gaps are largest in the Investment pillar, confirming its role as a highly discriminating dimension that can determine whether a country breaks into the top tier. Regarding RQ1, Implementation, Innovation, and Investment are mutually reinforcing through a reinforcing loop-investment → innovation → adoption (implementation) → market demand/commercialization → additional investment-while simultaneously being constrained by a balancing loop in which risk events → declining trust / increased regulation and compliance burdens → slower adoption and investment. Regarding RQ2, government AI budgets strengthen Innovation (and indirectly Investment) through R&D and public infrastructure; education and training enhance Innovation and Implementation by expanding the talent supply and improving R&D productivity; and private AI investment most directly reinforces the Investment pillar via commercialization and scale-up. These effects accumulate over time and typically materialize with lags of approximately 1.5-3 years. Regarding RQ3, for Korea to reach third place in the OECD in the Investment score, increasing private-investment leverage should be the central lever, combined with a package of complementary measures that integrates government strategy and the talent base. One representative package identified in this study (G=1.2, P=1.3, E=1.1) is derived as one of the minimum conditions for achieving that target.

본 연구는 한국의 ODA 공여액 규모가 2017년에 약 2조 7천억원 수준으로 커져 가는 상황에서 ODA 사업에 대한 효율적 관리 필요성을 인식하고 ODA 사업의 효과성을 강화하기 위한 방안을 모색하고자 하는 것이 목적이다. 이를 위해서 ODA 사업 추진과정을 중요한 영향요인들이 포함된 인과지도 형태로 세분화하고 추진과정에 영향을 미치는 중요한 영향요인들을 활용하여 정책 시뮬레이션을 수행한다. 이러한 과정을 거쳐서 첫째, ODA 사업의 효과성 제고를 위해서 관련되는 중요한 영향요인들이 무엇인지를 규명하고, 둘째, 중요한 영향요인들에 대한 정책시뮬레이션을 통하여 향후 ODA 사업의 효과성이 어떻게 달라질 수 있는 지를 예측하며, 셋째, ODA 사업추진과 관련된 상황이 변동될 수 있음을 감안하여 민감도 분석을 통하여 ODA 사업의 효과성에 대한 향후 추이를 예측해 보고자 한다. 분석결과, ODA 사업의 중요한 독립변수들의 수준 변화 시나리오가 ODA 목표달성이라는 종속변수에 미치는 변화정도를 추정할 수 있었다.

Official Development Assistance (ODA) is expected to play an important role in Korea’s diplomacy, contributing significantly toward stability and economic development of less developed countries. This paper attempts to theoretically construct causal diagrams explaining the complex relationships among factors within a system of ODA project, and to estimate the effectiveness of ODA projects conducted by Korean government utilizing policy simulation method. In doing so, it employs policy scenario analysis and sensitivity analysis as well. A number of significant reinforcing and balancing feed-back loops operating within ODA project system have been discovered, implying those feed-back loops could be analyzed for reviewing policy leverages to be able to elevate the effectiveness of ODA projects. The paper highlights the gaps between policy measures and practice that occasionally have hindered effective utilization of ODA. It also suggests new perspectives which Korean ODA projects may take both now and in the future, more flexible and more country-specific implementation models.

This paper attempts to explore the potential factors affecting success and failure of social enterprises operating in Korea, to specify their characteristics, and to estimate their optimal growth rate using policy simulation method. In theory, a number of determinants influencing successful performance and activities of social enterprise have been discussed and studied in an empirical ways as well. However, little attention has been paid to analyzing core factors affecting the success of social enterprise in a systematic and objective way. Under this background, this study focuses on identifying the main factors associated with the successful activities of social enterprises in Korea and puts forward their optimal growth rate.

Technical studies can shed light on many complex marinepolicy issues. However, conveying this information in easilyunderstandable ways to decision makers and other stakeholders isoften a difficult task. This paper will present initial draft results of ongoing work to develop new tools to help interested parties bettervisualize the consequences of policy actions and to integrate thetools into larger project analyses. The project uses the new stateof-the-art Policy Simulation Laboratory (SimLab) at the Univeristyof Rhode Island to communicate the consequences ofchange in the community. The SimLab is a group of networkedrooms and computer systems that utilize technology-based tools,like Geographic Information Systems (GIS), digital imagery andvirtual reality software, to help communities better visualize theconsequences of development (See http://www.uri.edu/cels/enre/Preview/SimLab/). For example, modeling tools can be used toforecast future development in a town, and GIS maps can be createdto show likely spatial distribution of future developments. Byclicking on specific areas of development on the maps, virtualreality tools allow interactive virtual drive-throughs or fly-bys ofdevelopments, complete with visuals and sound. Computer systemscan be used for forecast how different policy scenarios canbe used to attempt to manage the future of the community. In this paper we report on our initial progress toward thecreation and use of visualization tools, within the context of twolarger applications in coastal regions. The first application is partof a larger project to determine social, ecological and economicimpacts of alternative development scenarios in South County,Rhode Island. We intend to use virtual reality tools to help interestedparties better visualize the aesthetic consequences of newdevelopments. The second application is part of a larger ongoinganalysis to assess potential demand and community impacts of aproposed container port in Quonset Point, Rhode Island. We presentinitial drafts of technology-based tools to present visual andauditory impacts of a new port. Ongoing work will extend applicationsto coastal issues in Korea.

Today's network consists of a large number of routers and servers running a variety of applications. Policy-based network provides a means by which the management process can be simplified and largely automated. In this paper we build a foundation of policy-based network modeling and simulation environment. The procedure and structure for the induction of policy rules from vulnerabilities stored in SVDB (Simulation based Vulnerability Data Base) are developed. The structure also transforms the policy rules into PCIM (Policy Core Information Model). The effect on a particular policy can be tested and analyzed through the simulation with the PCIMs and SVDB.

A typical production-distribution system consist of three main echelons representing the retailer, distributors, and a factory each with an on-site warehouse. The system is sufficiently general and realistic to represent many industrial situations. However, decision functions and parameters have been selected to apply particularly to the production and distribution of consumer durables. The flows included in the model are materials, orders, and those information flows needed to support the material and order-rate decisions. In this work, a realistic production-distribution system has been used as a basic model, which consists of three sectors: retailer, distributor, and factory. That system is a nonlinear 25th-order continuous system interconnected between the echelons. Using a modern control algorithm, a typical multi-echelon production-distribution system using a dynamic controller is numerically simulated in the nominal plant and in the perturbed plant when the piecewise constant manufacturing decision is limited by a factory manufacturing upper-limit due to capital equipment, manpower, and factory lotsize.

The aim of the paper is to solve the problem of customer reduction due to the difficulty of parts sourcing which impacts production delay and delivery delay in SC networks. Furthermore, this paper is to suggest the new inventory policy of MTS in order to solve the problem of current inventory policy. In order to compare two policies, a LCD maker is selected as a case study and the real data for 2007 years is used for simulation input. The maker uses MTO policy for parts sourcing which has the problem of lead time even if it has some advantage of inventory cost. Based on current process. The simulation program of AS-IS model and TO-BE model using ARENA 10 version is developed for evaluation. In a result, the order number of two policies shows that MTO is 52 and MTS is 53. However the quantity of order shows big difference such that MTO is 168,460 and MTS is 225,106. Particularly, the lead time of new inventory policy shows much shorter that that of MTO such that MTO 100 is days and MTS is 16 days. In spite of short lead time by MTS policy, new policy has to take burden of inventory cost per year. Total inventory cost per year by MTS policy is US$ 11,254 and each part inventory cost is that POL is US$ 1,807, LDI is US$ 2,166 and Panel is US$ 7,281. The implication of the research is that the company has to consider the cost and the service simultaneously in deciding the inventory policy. In the paper, even if the optimal point of deciding is put into tactical area, the ground of decision is suggested in order to improve the problem in SC networks.

During the last three decades, a few attentions have been paid for investigating the cost distribution for the optimal maintenance problems. In this article, we derive the moment of the discounted cost distribution over an infinite time horizon for the basic age replacement problem. With first two moments of the discounted cost distribution, we approximate the underlying distribution function by three theoretical distributions. Through a Monte Carlo simulation, we conclude that the log-normal distribution is the best fitted one to approximate the discounted cost distribution.

지방정부는 기후변화의 실질적 대응 주체라는 점에서 기후변화 대응에서의 역할이 중요해지고 있다. 그렇지만 우리나라 지방자치단체의 기후변화 대응 수준은 정치적 선언에 그치고 있다. 이는 합리적인 정책 결정을 위한 가용 자원이 부족하기 때문일 수 있다. 이에 본 논문은 평균 도시, 침상 도시로서 고양시, 소비 도시로서 서울 중구, 산업 도시로서 여수시를 대상으로 정책 모의실험을 수행하였다. 이는 사례 도시별 탄소중립 달성가능성과 효과적인 정책 방향을 제시함으로써 가용 자원이 가장 적은 기초지자체가 과학적 분석에 기반한 정책 결정을 내리는데 기여하기 위함이다. 분석 결과, 고양시와 서울 중구는 건물･교통･재생가능에너지 공급 정책이 상당히 강한 수준으로 이행되었을 때, 탄소중립을 달성할 가능성이 있음을 확인할 수 있었다. 반면, 여수시는 기초지자체 권한 내 정책만으로는 탄소중립 달성이 어려우며, 산업 부문의 탄소배출을 줄이기 위해 중앙정부와의 협력이 필요함을 확인하였다.

The role of local governments is important in responding to climate changes because they are well aware of local conditions. Therefore, municipalities in Korea recently declared carbon-neutrality. However, it is only a political declaration. This may be due to the lack of policy resources of primary local governments in responding to such climate changes. This paper analyzed the feasibility of achieving carbon neutrality goals in Goyang, a bed town, Jung-gu, Seoul, a consuming city, and Yeosu, an industrial city, using system dynamics, then, suggested policy implications for each region. As a result, it was found that Goyang City and Jung-gu, Seoul could achieve their carbon neutral goals if they implement policies in the building, housing, renewable energy supply, and transportation sectors at a fairly strong level. On the other hand, Yeosu City revealed that it was unable to achieve carbon neutrality because it lacks sufficient authority to regulate the industrial sector of the city and lacks the capacity to develop industrial technology to reduce energy consumption. Therefore, the central government and Yeosu city need to cooperate to reduce industrial carbon emission.

This paper examines the problems of allocation mechanism for local allocation tax in Korea. Especially using policy simulation analysis, we analyze the effect of various reform measures for local allocation tax on distribution of funds among local governments and administration process. Three reform measures are as follows. Reform measures A is to estimate the basic fiscal demand of local government using a single equation system in which only population, area, and the number of local government officials are measurement items. Reform measures B is to classify the basic fiscal demand into three categories-general administration expenditures, social development expenditures, and economic development expenditures. Reform measures C is to classify the basic fiscal demand into twelve categories which exactly correspond to current local government budget items. First, we found that only alternative C will improve equity in distribution of local allocation tax. Second, in terms of simplicity of administration process all three alternatives will improve the current system. Finally, we found that in terms of variability of rankings of benefits from local allocation tax alternative C is better than others. Therefore, we conclude that alternative C is the optimal reform measures for local allocation tax in Korea.

본 연구는 재벌세(계열사 출자에 따른 과세) 관련 논의를 검토하고 이 제도 도입 시 기업의 자본조달 및 투자에 미치는 영향에 대해 실증적으로 추정했다. 재벌세란 대규모 기업집단에 한하여 계열사 간 배당수익금액과 계열사투자를 위한 차입금의 이자비용을 공제대상에서 배제시키는 조세정책을 의미한다. 먼저 본 연구는 한국의 현행 관련 세제를 국제적으로 비교하고 재벌세에 대한 학술적 논의를 정리했으며, 아울러 해당 과세의 도입에 따른 기업재무상의 변화에 대해서도 검토했다. 본 연구는 40대 국내기업을 대상으로 자본비용과 투자에 대한 계열사 배당금액 익금불산입 폐지와 이자비용 손금산입 폐지의 영향을 수치적 분석(numerical analysis)을 통해 추정했다. 정책 모의실험의 결과, 40대 기업 중 재벌세가 적용되는 기업(지주회사 제외)의 경우 계열사에 대한 출자재원이 부채비율에 비례하여 이루어진다는 가정에서 재벌세로 인해 자본비용은 0.64% 증가하고 생산을 위한 자본규모의 변화율은 －1.07%인 것으로 나타났다. 이를 기업들의 투자 감소액으로 환산할 경우 유형자산으로는 2조7,401억 원이, 그리고 순유형자산으로는 2조5,482억 원이 감소하는 규모에 해당한다. 분석결과에서 재벌세의 영향 중 익금불산입 폐지의 영향이 손금산입 폐지의 영향보다 10분의 1 수준 이하로 나타났는데, 이러한 원인으로는 현재 익금불산입률 자체가 매우 낮아 배당성향이 낮고 계열사에 대한 출자지분도 낮기 때문인 것으로 평가됐다.

This paper examines the discussions related to ‘conglomerate tax’(tax on investment in affiliates) and numerically estimates the impacts of introducing this system on corporate finance and investment. The conglomerate tax means a tax policy for large-size business groups that excludes deduction of dividend incomes between affiliates and interest expenses on debt for investment in affiliates. First, this paper compares the current tax system of Korea internationally, reviews academic discussions, and also investigates changes on corporate finance due to the introduction of taxation applicable. This paper estimates the effects on capital cost and investment of abolishing the exclusion of dividend income from gross revenue and the deduction of interest expense for forty domestic major firms in numerical analysis. On the assumption that funds for investing in affiliates are proportional to debt ratio for forty firms except holding companies that conglomerate taxes are applicable to, the result from policy simulation is that the cost of capital increases by 0.64%, and the capital for production decreases by 1.07% due to the conglomerate taxes. To say it another way, the amount of investment reduction becomes ￦ 2740.1 billion in tangible asset and ￦ 2548.2 billion in net tangible asset. The analysis shows that the effect of abolishing the exclusion of dividend income from gross revenue is 10 times less than that of abolishing the deduction of interest expense. This is why the exclusion rate of dividend income itself is currently very low, so that dividend payout ratio and equity share of affiliate are low.

This study aims to analyze the feedback loops and policy simulation of price fluctuation of Korean Cattle. The Korean Cattle market shows the 'Cycle of Beef' since 1970. In general, the market for agricultural commodities exhibit repeated cycles of prices and production. Why Beef products market in Korea shows the fluctuation of cattle and beef price repeatedly for forty years? To find an answer, this paper explores the feedback structure of the dynamics of the beef market by the systems thinking and build a stock-flow diagram model for the simulation of future behavior of the market sector of the Cattle. The dynamic simulation model was developed to identify and analyze the cyclical behavior among many variables, which is the number of cattle (calves, cow, etc.), the price of cattle, the demand for beef, the desirable number of cattle, slaughter, etc. The results of this study demonstrate that dominant feedback loops between the number of cattle and livestock prices. The demand for Beef and slaughter with time delay, also the results of the simulation to explain the persistence of future price fluctuations and actions meat market until 2025.

이 연구는 복지정책의 경제적 효과 분석에 있어 ｢국민계정｣ 체계와 정합성을 가지면서 OECD 사회지출통계(SOCX)의 한계를 보완할 수 있는 대안인 복지계정 구축의 의의를 살펴보고, 이를 이용한 시뮬레이션 방법을 제안한다. 실물경제의 소득 흐름을 반영한 ‘사회계정행렬’(SAM) 다부문 승수분석을 통해 기능별 복지지출이 소득10분위별 가계 소득과 분배에 미치는 순 효과를 분석하였다. 정책벡터로 행정비용을 식별할 수 있는 복지계정을 이용하였기 때문에 복지지출의 순 정책 효과를 분석할 수 있었다. ｢가계금융복지조사｣ 자료를 이용한 한계소비성향 추정을 통해 복지지출의 가계소득분위별 소비 효과를 분석하였다. 복지계정을 이용한 시뮬레이션 방법의 제안을 통해 복지지출의 기능별 차이와 지출 형태(현금, 현물, 행정비용)가 소득분배의 차이를 유발하며, 소득분위별 소비후생에도 영향을 미친다는 사실을 확인하였다. 이 연구를 통해 제안한 시뮬레이션 방법이 경제활동부문별 및 가계부문별로 적절한 복지정책을 모색하는 데 기존에 제안된 적이 없는 새로운 역할을 할 것으로 기대된다.

This study examines the significance of constructing welfare accounts which, while consistent with the System of National Accounts (SNA), can complement the limitations of the OECD Social Expenditure Statistics (SOCX) in analyzing the economic effects of welfare policies, and proposes a simulation method using such welfare accounts. The net effect of welfare expenditure by function on household income and distribution was analyzed through multiplier analysis of the ‘social account matrix’ (SAM) that reflects the income flow of the real economy. Since the welfare account that can identify administrative expenses as a policy vector was used, the net policy effect of welfare expenditure could be analyzed. The marginal propensity to consume was estimated by using data from the Household Financial Welfare Survey. Also, the consumption effect of welfare expenditure by household income decile was analyzed. Through the proposal of a simulation method using the welfare account, it is confirmed that the differences in welfare expenditure by function and the form of expenditure (such as cash, in kind, and administrative expenses) cause differences in income distribution and also affect the consumption welfare by income decile. It is expected that the simulation method proposed through this study will play a new role that has not been previously proposed before in finding appropriate welfare policies for each economic activity and household sector.

이 연구는 우리나라 지방분권 수준을 OECD가 최근 제시해 주고 있는 재정분권 수준 측정지표를활용하여, 현 상태를 측정해 보고, 적정한 분권수준의 목표를 제시해 보고자 하는데 연구목적이있다. 적정한 분권수준이라는 것은 대단히 어려운 과제이긴 하나 어느 정도 수준이 적정한 지는계량화된 수치로 제시해 줄 필요가 있다. 이러한 적정 분권화 수준 설정과정에서 고려해야할 변수는 다양할 수 있으나 본 연구에서는 국가경쟁력과 국민행복도 수준을 선정하였다. 우리가 지방분권화를 추진하는 목적은 분권화 자체가 최종 목표가 아니라, 지방분궈화가 우리가 지향해야 할보편적 목적인 국가경쟁력 강화와 국민행복도 증진에 있다고 보기 때문이다. 이러한 연구배경하에서, 본 연구는 최근 OECD에서 새로운 분권수준 측정방법으로서 제시하고 있는 재정분권화 측정지표들을 OECD 주요 국가들과 한국의 현실에 적용해 보고, 재정분권화 수준을 측정해 본다. 이어서, 분권화 수준과 관련되는 변수들을 구조방정식 모델을 이용하여 그 영향관계를 측정한다. 이러한 구조방정식 모델을 통한 분석에서는 재정분권화에 영향을 미치는 변수와 재정분권화에 영향을 받는 변수들의 관계를 파악할 수 있다. 이러한 영향관계 분석을 통하여 얻어진 파라미터 값을 이용하여 국가경쟁력과 국민행복도 수준을 다 같이 향상시키면서 균형을 맞출 수 있는 적정한분권수준을 파악해 보고자 한다. 이러한 과정에서는 시스템다이나믹스 방법론에서 활용하는 정책시뮬레이션을 실시한다. 4개의 시나리오를 설정한 정책시뮬레이션 결과를 활용한 대안들은 우리나라 지방분권 정책결정가들에게 향후 한국의 적정한 지방분권 수준을 결정하는데 중요한 정책적시사점을 제시해 줄 수 있을 것이라고 생각한다.

This paper aims to analyze current level of decentralisation of Korea in comparison ofOECD countries, especially utilizing fiscal decentralization indicators developed by OECDresearch group, and to explore the optimal decentralization level which can be applied toKorea. This paper should be read in conjunction with the author’s earlier paper titledMeasuring Decentralization and Analysing Its Relationships with Associated VariablesUsing Structural Equation Model, which is cited in the reference. In theory, it is not easy tosearch for optimal decentralization level of each country, and nevertheless it is alsonecessary to find out it in a quantitative way for policy purpose. The dependent variables tobe considered in this process are two: national happiness and national competitiveness. Theyare selected as policy target variables which are to be taken into account. The study resultsput forward four scenarios regarding local decentralization level which can be applied toKorea. It is hoped that four scenarios containing structural causal relationships model willbe of great benefit to policy makers and practitioners for seeking optimal decentralizationlevel in Korea.