Earticle

One of the important factors of technology development strategies is the expected economic value of a technology. As the focus of national defense policy have been turned from domestic consumption to international consumption, a more accurate technology valuation model is required for defense industries. This research presents a new model for evaluating economic value of technologies by the modified process which adopted a Markov Chain and a Risk-averse Utility Function. The major accomplishment of this research is the designing of the process which estimates the technology market lifespan based on the probability data. It also enables us to consider the expected events. Moreover, a new technology valuation model is designed to reflect the characteristics of defense industries at the specific technique level.

2015년 자본시장법이 개정되면서 올해 1월부터 증권형 크라우드 펀딩이 시작되었다. 증권형 크라우드 펀딩은 후원형, 기부형 그리고 대출형 크라우드 펀딩과는 달리 자금을 필요로 하는 초기기업의 지분에 대해 투자하는 것으로, 증권거래소나 코스닥에 상장되어 있는 주식에 투자하는 것보다 훨씬 위험이 높기 때문에 투자자에 대한 보호가 보다 절실하다. 현재 크라우드 펀딩의 중개 플랫폼은 13곳으로 활발하게 온라인 중개를 진행하고 있음에도 불구하고, 이들이 운영하는 홈페이지의 집단지성은 아직 초보단계를 벗어나지 못하고 있다. 집단지성은 많은 사람들의 의견과 토론을 통해 발행기업이 투자할 만한 곳인가를 판단할 수 있어야 하는데, 현재 중개 플랫폼은 형식적인 공간만 제공하고 있는 실정이다. 이에 따라 본 연구에서는 집단지성을 보강할 수 있는 기술평가 보고서의 활용을 제언한다. 현행 자본시장법에서는 발행 기업이 기술평가를 받은 후에 구체적 내용은 게시하지 않고 평가받았다는 연혁만 게시하면 평가결과가 좋던 나쁘던 중개업자는 평가를 받았는지에 대해서만 확인하고 있다. 따라서 기술 중심의 투자유치 희망 기업의 경우에는 개인 투자자들의 투자 판단을 보조하고 합리적인 집단지성의 작용을 촉진하기 위하여 기술평가 보고서를 게재하는 것을 제언한다.

With the amendment of the Korean Capital Market Act in 2015, Equity based crowdfunding began in January of this year. Unlike rewards, donation, and lending based types, Equity based crowdfunding requires the direct investment in shares of business in its nascent stages. The risk of investors is much higher than investing in businesses through stock exchange or KOSDAQ, therefore, a measure to protect the investors is necessary. Currently, despite the fact that there are 13 crowdfunding platforms that are actively mediating sales, the webpage operators’ collective intelligence has not yet escaped its primitive stage. Although collective intelligence delineates that through discussions and comments one should be able to judge if the business in question is a worthwhile investment, current mediating platforms only provide a mere perfunctory platform. Therefore, this paper aims to discuss the use of a technology valuation report is proposed to strengthen the collective intelligence of the investors. Current capital market act only confirms if the investee has underwent such valuation, not holding into account its details or whether if the result was good or bad. Therefore, in the case of technology centered companies that are seeking investment, a publication of its technology valuation will aid the investors in incorporating a technical analysis into the collective intelligence, and this in turn will compensate the current perfunctory system that will allow a more discrete analysis for investors.

Recently, the technology is getting to be the most important factor for companies, as the industry is changing fast. The uncertainty and complexity of technology valuation arc higher so that the technology concentrated companies need more developed and high performance technology. This paper reviews the methods of technology valuation for five categories that have been developed by valuation researchers, (1) research of technology diffusion and acceptance model, (2) research of technology valuation, (3) research of technology import and export factor, (4) research of technology valuation model, (5) research of technology transfer and market. And we propose a new technology valuation model using need(market), seed(technology) and deeds(management) factor by cross impact matrix. This model gives us the reference negotiation range for deciding the amount of royalty. I hope this paper induces more research on this field of technology valuation.

본 연구는 국가연구개발사업의 확대와 더불어 국토교통연구개발사업의 K 연구단의 사례를 분석하여 기술 가치에 대한 평가를 하였다. 기술 가치에 대한 평가는 기술적 측면을 가장 잘 보여주는 K 연구단이 등록한 특허를 대상으로 SMART3를 이용하여 분석하였다. 분석결과 K 연구단의 기술 가치는 국토교통연구개발사업의 평균과 비슷한 수준을 유지하고 있는 것으로 나타났다. 본 연구의 의의는 국가연구개발사업에 대한 원론적인 기술가치 평가에 대한 접근을 보다 구체화시켜 접근했다는데 있다. 국가연구개발사업의 본연의 목적을 달성하기 위한 객관적이고 다양한 평가 방법에 대한 연구가 더욱 많이 이루어지길 기대한다.

In this study, along with the expansion of the national R&D projects, by analyzing the case of K research center of Land and Transport R&D projects, and was evaluated in the value of technology. The evaluation of the value of technology, were analyzed using the SMART3 targeting patents K research center indicate best technical aspects have registered. Analysis technical value of research center K, was found to have maintained the same level as the average of about of Land and Transport R&D projects. The significance of this study is that it was approached by more concrete approach of valuation of technology principle of national R&D projects. We expect that the study of evaluation method and diverse objective to achieve the intended purpose of the national R&D projects are carried out more.

기술변화주기가 빨라지고 신제품개발 경쟁이 치열해지면서 R&D 및 신제품개발 투자 규모가 확대되고 있다. 이러한 관 점에서 연구개발에 대한 전략이 중요해지고 있으며 기술변화에 대응하기 위한 기술예측 및 이를 의사결정에 활용하기 위한 여러 시도들이 이루어지고 있다. 기술수명주기는 기술예측의 수단으로 기술의 발전방향 및 상용화시기, 쇠퇴기 등 을 파악하기 위해 추정되며 신제품개발이나 공정혁신, 마케팅, 전략등과 함께 논의된다. 기업과 정부의 기술예측의 최 종목적은 시장가치 창출이므로 기술예측에는 경제성이 함께 반영되어져야 한다. 본 연구에서는 기술예측을 위해 사용되는 기술수명주기에 경제성을 반영하기 위해 마케팅 및 제품 출시 전략에 주로 사용되는 제품수명주기를 도입해 비교 분석해보고자 한다. 실증분석을 위해 <2011년 중소기업기술통계>데이터와 1976년~2009년까지의 미국 등록특허 데이터를 사용하였으며 시장구조를 고려하기 위해 산업별 시장의 집중도를 함께 반영하였다. 분석결과 특허를 통해 추정된 기술수명주기와 제품수명주기는 유의한 상관을 보이지 않아 제품수명주기가 기술을 포함하고 있을지라도 기술 외적인 부분이 반영될 때 다른 속성이 나타났다. 이는, 기술수준 및 Pavitt의 혁신패 턴에 따라 집단별로 유의미한 차이를 나타내었다. 본 연구는 마케팅전략에서 활용되던 제품수명주기를 기술수명주기 및 기술혁신패턴과 관련지어 실증분석을 시도했으 며 기업의 신제품개발 전략이나 무형자산의 서비스나 거래 시 고려해야 할 변수들을 제시했다. 더불어 기술예측과 기술 수명과 가치 추정시 제품수명주기에 대한 고려가 필요하다는 시사점을 갖는다. 또한, 제시된 산업별 제품수명주기나 기 술수명주기 등의 연구결과들은 R&D 투자 및 관련 의사결정시 활용 가능한 가이드라인이 될 수 있다.

There are many trials for usage of technological forecasting in R&D decision and adoption of technological change because of expended R&D investment and diversified strategies for technology. Technology life cycle is method of forecasting and argue with marketing and strategy of new product development and process innovation for estimation of development phase and direction of technology. Hence, fundamental goal of forecasting technology lies in obtaining the economic value of a target technology, reflecting the market life time. This study introduces the concept of product life cycle as a proxy of the economic efficiency in the market. This study intends to check how much the predicted value of the life of technology, using the information about patent citations already used in the sector of the technology value appraisal, reflects the economic efficiency of the market through an analysis using the life cycle of the product. Product life cycle (PLC) data were taken from ‘2011 SMEs Technology Statistics’ Survey for 3,400 SMEs and cited life time (CLT) data were drawn from the US patents during 1976~2009 and concentration ratio are added for considering market structure. Results of correlation analysis of CLT and PLC have no significant relationship and our result shows that PLC contains the economic features that CLT does not have it. Difference between two measures within industry, technology level and Pavitt's taxonomy is also significant. This study attempt to analyze difference between product life cycle and technology life cycle related to innovation and technological innovation pattern and suggested that variables which is considered when appraisal or service of intangible asset and strategy for newly developed product. It is worthy that considering product life cycle when technological forecasting and calculating value of

본 논문은 기술가치 평가제도가 기업들 특히, 지방 중소기업 스스로 기술개발 의지를 제고하기 위한 환경을 조성하는데 효과적인 대안이라는 인식에서 기술가치 평가제도가 활성화하는데 필요한 여건을 마련하는데 연구의 목적을 두고 있다. 기술가치 평가제도에 대하여 정부나 학계, 실무계 등에서 기업의 기술개발 의지를 제고시키는데 기여할 것으로 인식을 같이하고 있다고 판단된다. 그러나 기술가치 평가제도가 활성화되는데는 제도적 문제점들이 나타나고 있는데, 본 논문이 ‘기술가치 평가제도’를 활성화를 위하여 필요한 제도적 개선방안은 다음과 같다 첫째, 정부의 정책자금이나 보조금 지원, 인증평가 등에서 기술가치 평가 제도를 폭 넓게 활용할 수 있는 기반을 마련해 줌으로써 기술가치 평가 시장이 활성화되도록 할 것, 둘째, 기술혁신형 기업들이 물적 담보여력이 부족하기 때문에 정책자금 지원에 의존도가 높은 현실을 고려하여 정책자금 지원부분에 있어서는 기술가치 평가 제도를 통해 담보력을 인정하도록 할 것, 셋째, 기술가치 평가기법의 개발을 통해 평가결과에 대한 신뢰도를 확보해 나가도록 할 것. 넷째, 기술가치 평가업무를 전담 수행할 평가전문기관과 평가 전문 인력의 확충 등을 제안하였다.

The Purpose of this study is to search for a local SMB's technology valuation evaluation policy improvement. As the development and commercialization of advanced technologies will increasingly depend on efficient technology transfer and technology trading systems and the knowledge economics grows rapidly, the value of intangible assets is more emphasized in business nowadays. Intangible assets include intellectual capital and intellectual property. This thesis will suggest improvements planned for these Local SMB's technology valuation evaluation policy. The main suggestions are as follows: 1) The infrastructures of technology valuation evaluation need to be improved, 2) To establish the institution of technology valuation evaluation, 3) To increase the technology valuation evaluation personnel, 4) Development of a method to technology valuation evaluation.

이 기술의 가치는 얼마나 될 것인가? 이는 다양한 투자환경 하에서 관심과 중요성이 매우 큰 질문이다. 이러한 환경은 R&D 프로젝트에 투자를 고려하고 있는 기업들은 물론 신생기업에 투자를 고려하고 있는 벤처투자자에 이르기까지 매우 다양하다. 그러나 객관적이고 정확한 가치평가는 매우 어려우며, 적절한 평가를 수행하지 못할 가능성도 매우 높다. 이러한 문제에 닥친 경영자의 의사결정을 돕기 위한 가치평가 기법으로서 전통적인 할인현금흐름(DCF) 분석방법으로부터 실물옵션 방법까지 다양하게 제시되어 있다. 특히 DCF 기반의 기술가치평가, 이른바 소득접근법(Income Approach)의 적용을 위한 주요 핵심변수를 추정하기 위한 구조화 작업이 이루어져왔다. 본고에서는 기술가치평가에 대한 선행연구를 기술의 가치분석 또는 가치평가의 이론적 접근, 기술가치 분석․평가 모델과 기법을 개발하거나 모델적용을 위한 기술가치의 결정요인을 구조화하기 위한 연구, 기술가치평가에 대한 사례분석과 실증적 분석 측면에서 검토한다. 다양한 가치평가 방법들은 자체적인 특성을 가지고 있으며, 그에 따른 실제 적용에 한계를 가지고 있다. 본고에서는 가치평가 기법의 실용성을 검토하고, DCF 모델이 가진 한계를 극복하기 위한 하이브리드 모델의 적용 가능성을 탐색하고자 한다. 이를 통해 현장의 경영자들이 이들 기법의 추상적인 아이디어를 더욱 용이하게 접근하여 사용할 수 있도록 하고자 한다.

Economic value of a certain technology is of great interest and importance in a wide variety of investment circumstances. These vary from companies considering investing in R&D projects, to venture capitalists funding start-up companies. However, such valuation is extremely difficult in any case, and the cost of failure can be very high. Many techniques have been proposed to assist managers facing this issue, from traditional discounted cash flow analysis to more recent methods based on real options. In the meantime, the discounted cash flow method has limitations in applying the valuation of technology. At the same time, there have been various solutions to overcome theoretical problems of the method. Real options have been thought as a solution. However, there are another problems in using them in real world. This paper reviews the previous studies on the valuation of technology in several aspects, discusses the practicability of the various methods available, and explore the application of a hybrid model, which aims to make these rather aore the ideas more accessible to practicing managers.

Defense offset has been implemented by a counter-trade obligation in defense acquisition contracts between purchasing countries and foreign selling companies in the global arms market. It gives the buyer a valuable opportunity to acquire not only defense R&D technologies, but also parts production and other advantages. Even though the importance of defense offset trade is greatly increasing today, purchasing countries still need more objective and credible valuation methods by mutual agreement in defense offset contracts. Whereas the income approach is widely used for commercial fields, it is rarely applied to defense acquisition projects. This paper presents the income approach-based technology valuation model in the defense offset program of the Republic of Korea. The contribution of this paper is in the application of the Defense Offset Valuation with INcome approach (DOVIN) model and its empirical implementations to defense offset contracts. It also shows several policy implications that could be applied to the defense offset program.

This study empirically analyzes the characteristics of the various attributes of technology that influence the economic values of technologies, based on the cases of technology valuation carried out in Korea. To do so, we collect the cases of technology valuation carried out by major technology valuation institutions in Korea and extract from these data the information about various characteristics of the subject technologies of valuation and the primary factors applied to the technology valuation. Based on such extracted information, we examine the overall trends of technology valuation in Korea and analyze how the main factors of technology valuation vary with the attributes of technology.

This article proposes a logic model for assessing the performance of the outcome of public research as a technology valuation method. It consists of two parts and eight steps. The first part is a scoring system and the second part is a validation process of the performance index derived from scoring by valuation method. The scoring in the first part generally requires a focus group method to find out the value drivers and make an evaluation table. The reason why we call it the technology valuation method is that the first part is derived from the simple evaluation of technology value using checklists for value drive. The second part is the regular technology valuation process. The model is designed for the measurement of unquantifiable outcome. Is knowledge or scientific outcome comparable to the measured outcome? If possible, how big is the unquantifiable outcome? This model is based on financial valuation techniques with clear or acceptable market data. Therefore, it cannot work solely for unquantifiable outcomes without comparable measurable outcomes, unlike economic valuation.

This study empirically investigates whether AI-based technology valuation produces different outcomes compared to conventional expert-led evaluation methods. The Korea Technology Finance Corporation (KOTEC), a public institution that supports SME financing through credit guarantees, has implemented an AI-driven valuation system known as KPAS to assess firms’ intellectual property. To evaluate the effectiveness of this AI-based approach relative to traditional expert appraisals, we examine changes in two key performance indicators: firm sales, which reflect current business performance, and the Tech Index, which serves as a proxy for innovation capacity. Using a difference-in-differences (DID) framework combined with propensity score matching (PSM), we compare the post-guarantee performance of firms evaluated by each method. The results show that guarantees based on technology valuation improve firm performance overall, and that KPAS substantially reduces the time and cost of evaluation compared to expert appraisal. Despite its lower resource requirements, the AI-based method delivers performance outcomes that are comparable to, or even better than, those of traditional evaluations. These findings remain largely robust across alternative model specifications and offer empirical support for the broader adoption of AI-assisted valuation systems in technology finance.

This study aims to analyze the valuation of technology firms in the stock market to answer how before-market entities should be valuated. This study analyzes 230 market reports of 2012 for technology firms in the KOSDAQ under several hypotheses. The results are as follows: 90% used the 3 multiples methods consisting of PER multiples with 80%, PBR multiples 8.7% and EBITDA multiples 1.7%. The average of PER multiples was 15 with the range of 6.9 to 83. That of PBR multiples is 2.27. Forecasting for cash flow is not applied over 4 years, but mainly 2-3 years. The accuracy of forecasting was 18.8%, 34.4% and 8% according to the different definitions. No differences were found in the accuracy of forecasting between valuation methods, between the industries having more intangible assets and the industries having less, and between startups and general companies and between ages and listed ages.

The purpose of this study is to compare the valuation of technology firms in the KOSPI and KOSDAQ. This study analyzed 224 market reports for KOSDAQ firms and 602 reports for KOSPI firms. We compare the two markets under 3 definitions on the accuracy of stock price forecasting. Findings are as follows: Although PER multiples is the most used method of valuation, KOSDAQ valuation more heavily relies on the method than KOSPI valuation. In stock market, the period of earnings forecasting is mostly 2-3 years. Multiples of KOSDAQ is generally higher than those of KOSPI. Even for technology firms, valuation in KOSPI mostly relies on earnings of the company, but that in KOSDAQ mostly relies on relative price. In stock price forecasting, generally overestimation prevails. Moreover, forecasting of KOSPI reports is more accurate than that of KOSDAQ reports. ROE and COE of KOSDAQ firms are generally higher than those of KOSPI firms.

This study analyzes the applicability of a technology valuation model from methodological and practical perspectives on international technology trade. To accommodate high uncertainties in cross-border technology trades, international valuation practitioners prefer using the income approach which is based on the discounted future cash flows from the subject technology valued. This study analyzes the technology factor method (TFM) and suggests an improved valuation model relevant to international technology trade by presenting valuation results of a hypothetical case. TFM’s estimation process starts with the assessment of the risks (uncertainties) related to the successful application and commercialization of the subject technology. After determining an entity’s overall business value created by the subject technology, TFM multiplies this value by the technology’s contributory factor. In domestic technology transactions, TFM estimates the contributory proportion of technological asset to be from 1/4 to 1/3. In international technology trades, however, this study suggests that TFM take into consideration additional factors such as trade utility and trade tendency when estimating the contribution factor. This study’s case analysis confirms that the suggested method mitigates the traditional TFM’s prerequisites on efficiency, completeness, and comparability of international technology trading markets. The suggested TFM is expected to shed new light on international technology valuation, by promoting international technology trades.

This study secured comparable sales transaction information of technology transfer corresponding to an active market conditions and proposes a method to assess the similarity of technologies with regard to comparability of technology transfer based on these cases information. In order to analyze the association and similarity between target technology and sales transactions, it proposes the significant factors affecting royalty decision and the cosine coefficient method by industry categories. It also proposes the method to adjust royalty, which means that this method unlike the conventional method provides clear standards to valuators in order to revise royalty. Therefore, it offers a solution to the difficulties of applying the market approach for a lot of valuators that have wanted to apply it and objective method to enhance the reliability of the value of intangible asset evaluated by the market approach.

기술경영의 패러다임은 기업경영을 기술의 가치를 강조하는 쪽으로 급속히 변화 시키고 있다. 기업이 고유한 기술에 대한 관리의 필요성이 대두됨에 따라 기업은 경쟁력을 높이는 한 방안으로 기술의 가지평가에 더 많은 관심을 쏟게 되었다. 기업에 적합한 포트폴리오를 작성하기 위래 선행되어야 할 작업으로써 고유기술에 대한 가치 평가를 시도하고 있는 것이다. 이를 위해서 기업들은 구체적인 기술평가 기반모형이 필요하게 되었으며, 본 연구에서는 다양한 산업 분야에 쉽게 응용될 수 있는 통합적 기술평가 기반 방법론을 제시하고자 한다.

지식기반 경제시대를 맞이하여 국가 간 경쟁이 치열해지고 있는 가운데 R&D 연구결과물에 대한 기술이전 사업화 중요성이 강조되고 있다. 기술이전 사업화를 위해선 기술개발자와 사업화주체인 기업간 이전비용에 대한 협의가 선행되어야 한다. 이전비용의 협의과정에서 기술가치 평가기관의 결과물이 활용되고 있으나, 결과물에 대한 신뢰성 문제는 기술이전 시장의 활성화에 걸림돌이 되고 있다. 본 논문에서는 사업화주체가 확정되지 않은 이전대상 기술에 대한 기술가치평가 신뢰성 제고방법에 대해 논한다. 제안하는 방법은 개관적인 기술 및 시장자료 등을 활용하여 발생 가능한 사업화 환경 시나리오에 대한 기술가치평가 결과물들을 그래프 형태로 도식화하여 제공하는 것을 특징으로 한다. 기술개발자와 수요자는 도출된 가치평가 정보를 활용하여 기술이전 거래금액의 적정성을 판단할 수 있게 될 것이며, 이를 통해 기술이전 거래가 활성화 될 것으로 기대된다.

Due to the toughening intelligence-based competitions among nations, it has become important to industrialize R&D results. To industrialize R&D results through technology transfer, the transfer fee between a technology developer and a company should be discussed. While discussing the transfer fee, the results of technology valuation have been used. However, due to the unreliability of its result, the technology transfer market has not been expanded. In this paper, we discuss the improvement of the reliability of the technology valuation method to expand the technology transfer market. The proposed scheme provides graph-type technology valuation results according to various industrial scenarios using objective technology and market data. With the use of the proposed scheme, the technology developer and the consumer (i.e., the company) can determine the appropriate technology transfer fee. Thus, the proposed scheme is expected to contribute to the expansion of the technology transfer market.

There is a growing need for technology transactions between the technology providers, who develop technologies, and the technology consumers, who purchase and commercialize technologies, to be smooth, when technologies, as intangible assets, are traded as items that can be purchased and sold. In response to these challenges, this study examines new approaches to assessing the fair market value of technologies. Because corporations are the main force behind technology development and commercialization in the existing business environment, applying one valuation method to technology assets is viable; however, as the subjects of technology development and technology commercialization are separate, the need for price negotiations between the subjects of technology transaction has grown. Moreover, as the investigations into and the application of transaction prices have been performed separately by technology providers, technology consumers, and technology assessment financial institutions, the research on technology valuation methods has shown that there are differences in perceived transaction prices between the subjects involved. This research presents a new method, appropriate to technology transactions; unlike existing methods, it grants option values to the technology provider and newly defined key variables to the technology consumer.