Earticle

최근 기후 변화로 인한 기상 악화 빈도의 증가와 공유 모빌리티의 확산 속에서, 날씨가 교 통수단 선택 및 수단 간 통행 전이에 미치는 영향을 파악하는 것은 도시 교통 계획의 중요한 과제가 되었다. 본 연구는 2023년 대전시 데이터를 활용해 기상 충격(강수·폭염·한파)이 공유 자전거(타슈)와 대중교통 이용에 미치는 영향을 VAR(Vector AutoRegression) 모형으로 분석했 다. 통행 목적의 이질성을 고려해 데이터를 주중-첨두, 주중-비첨두, 주말로 구분하여 분석을 수행하였다. 충격반응함수(IRF) 분석 결과, 기상 충격 발생 시 타슈 이용량은 모든 그룹에서 즉각적으로 급감하였다. 특히 통행 필수성이 높은 주중-첨두시간대에는 타슈 이탈 수요가 버 스가 아닌 지하철로 유의미하게 전이되는 ‘비대칭적 수단 대체 효과’가 뚜렷하게 관찰되었다. 반면, 여가 통행 위주인 주말에는 수단 대체보다는 통행 자체를 포기하는 효과가 지배적이었 다. 또한, 예측오차 분산분해(FEVD) 분석을 통해 지하철 이용량은 구조적으로 버스 이용량에 깊게 의존하고 있음이 확인되었다. 본 연구는 악천후 시 지하철의 회복 탄력성을 실증하였으 며, 기상 예보 연동 지하철 탄력 운영과 지하철-버스 간 끊김 없는 환승 연계 환경 조성을 핵심 정책으로 제언한다.

As climate change increases the frequency of adverse weather events, understanding their impact on shared mobility has become critical for urban transportation planning. This study empirically investigates the dynamic modal shift effects of weather shocks—specifically rain, heat waves, and cold waves—on shared bicycles (Tashu) and public transportation in Daejeon Metropolitan City. Using hourly traffic data from 2023, a Vector AutoRegression (VAR) model was constructed. To account for heterogeneity in trip purposes, the data were categorized into Weekday-Peak, Weekday-Off-Peak, and Weekend groups. The Impulse Response Function (IRF) analysis revealed that shared bicycle ridership significantly declined immediately upon the occurrence of weather shocks across all groups. A distinct "asymmetric modal substitution" was observed in Weekday-Peak hours, where displaced demand shifted exclusively to the subway. This indicates a "substitution failure" of buses, likely due to their lower reliability and exposure to weather compared to the subway. In contrast, on weekends, "trip cancellation" was the dominant response. Furthermore, Forecast Error Variance Decomposition (FEVD) analysis confirmed that subway ridership is structurally heavily dependent on bus ridership. Consequently, this study suggests prioritizing subway-centric resilience through weather-responsive flexible operations and enhancing bus-subway connectivity by creating seamless transfer environments to support the bus's role as a feeder mode during adverse weather.

본 연구는 도로 중심의 국내 화물운송 체계가 초래하는 환경적 및 경제적 문제를 해결하기 위한 대안으로 철도 모달시프트를 제안한다. 기 후 위기와 2050 탄소중립 목표 등 국제사회의 환경규제가 강화되는 상황에서, 공로운송이 가져오는 높은 온실가스 배출, 교통혼잡 및 사회간 접비용 등은 지속 가능한 물류체계 구축에 큰 장애물로 작용하고 있다. 이에 따라 철도운송의 안전성, 대량 운송능력, 낮은 에너지 소비와 같은 장점을 활용하여 친환경적 운송체계로의 전환이 시급하다는 점을 인식하였다. 연구는 모달시프트의 개념과 Green SCM, 철도물류의 특성을 분석하고 2015년부터 2021년까지의 국내 운송수단별 수송량 및 분담률을 검 토하였다. 분석 결과 공로운송 비중은 증가하는 반면 철도와 해운 운송량은 감소 추세를 보였으며 온실가스 배출량에서도 공로운송이 대부분 을 차지하는 것으로 나타났다. 해외의 정책사례로는 EU의 마르코폴로 프로그램과 Fit-for-55 정책, 일본의 그린물류파트너십과 에코레일 인증 제도를 분석했다. 이를 통해 정부의 일관된 정책 지원, 물류 참여자 간 협력체계 구축, 전환교통 보조금 제도의 개선이 모달시프트 성공의 핵심 요인임을 확인할 수 있었다. 이에 본 연구는 한국 철도 모달시프트 활성화를 위한 세 가지 정책방향을 제시한다. 첫째, 정부의 일관된 정책 지원과 체계적 성과평가 시스 템 마련이 필요하다. 둘째, 업종별 공동수송 협의체를 통한 한국형 철도물류 협력체계 구축과 민·관 협력 강화가 요구된다. 셋째, 전환교통 보 조금 제도의 현실화와 에코레일 인증과 같은 인센티브 제도 도입이 필요하다. 이러한 정책들이 성공적으로 실행된다면 국내 물류체계는 편중 된 운송수단의 선택의 개선과 환경적 지속가능성을 동시에 달성하며 글로벌 경쟁력을 갖춘 선진 물류강국으로 도약할 수 있을 것으로 기대한다.

This study proposes a rail modal shift as an alternative to address the environmental and economic issues caused by the road-centered domestic logistics system. Amid tightening international environmental regulations driven by the climate crisis and the 2050 carbon neutrality target, several challenges have emerged. These include high greenhouse gas emissions, traffic congestion, and external social costs associated with road transport, which have become significant obstacles to establishing a sustainable logistics system. Consequently, there is an urgent need to transition to an eco-friendly transportation system that leverages the safety, high capacity, and low energy consumption of rail transport. The research examines the concept of modal shift, Green Supply Chain Management (Green SCM), and the characteristics of rail logistics, and reviews transport volumes and modal shares across different modes of transportation in Korea from 2015 to 2021. The analysis reveals that while the share of road transport has increased, rail and maritime transport volumes have been declining, with road transport accounting for the majority of greenhouse gas emissions. International policy cases, such as the EU's Marco Polo program and Fit-for-55 policy, as well as Japan's Green Logistics Partnership and EcoRail certification system, were analyzed. These cases underscore that consistent government support, the establishment of a collaborative framework among logistics stakeholders, and improvements in transitional transport subsidy schemes are key factors for successful modal shift. Accordingly this study proposes three policy directions to revitalize rail modal shift in Korea. First, consistent government policy support and the establishment of a systematic performance evaluation system are needed. Second, there is a need to build a Korea-specific collaborative framework for rail logistics through sector-specific joint transportation councils and enhanced public-private partnerships. Third, the implementation of a realistic transitional transport subsidy scheme and the introduction of incentive programs, such as EcoRail certification, are essential. If these policies are successfully implemented, the domestic logistics system is expected to achieve both a more balanced modal share and environmental sustainability, thereby propelling Korea to become a leading logistics system with global competitiveness.

최근 환경에 대한 관심이 높아지면서 지구온난화 문제가 국제사회의 주요이슈로 등장하고 있다. 특히 2005년부터 교토의정서가 발효됨에 따라 감축의무국들은 온실가스감축을 위해 다양한 노력을 전개하고 있다. 현재 물류분야에서도 온실가스감축을 위해 친환경 물류 혹은 녹색물류라는 개념이 도입이 증가하고 있다. 한국은 2004년 기준으로 세계 9위의 CO2배출국으로 향후 포스트 교토의정서 체제 및 기후변화 협약 등 온실가스감축을 위한 국제사회의 움직임에 민감하게 대처해야 할 필요성이 증가하고 있다. 특히, 교통·운송부문은 전체 CO2배출량의 약 20%를 차지하고 있는 분야로 CO2감축을 위한 대책마련이 시급하다. 한국의 그린물류 정책은 2001년‘국가물류기본계획'이 수립되면서 시작되었다. 국가물류기본계획은 그 후 몇 번의 수정과정을 거쳐 현재에 이르고 있다. 2011년 4월에 발표된 국가물류기본계획 제2차 수정계획에서는 지속적 경제성장 지원, 저탄소 녹색성장 견인, 물류산업의 고부가가치화를 중점목표로 규정하고 세부실천과제로 육해공의 통합물류체계 구축을 통해 물류효율화 구현, 고품질 물류서비스 제공을 위한 소프트 인프라 확보, 녹색물류체계와 물류보안 강화로 선진물류체계 구현, 글로벌 물류시장진출을 위한 물류산업 경쟁력 강화,시장기능 회복을 통한 물류산업의 경쟁력 제고 등이 제시되어 있다. 하지만, 한국의 그린물류정책은 다른 선진국과 비교해서 상대적으로 역사가 짧고 추진경험도 부족하여 많은 어려움에 직면하고 있는 것도 사실이다. 본 연구는 한국보다 일찍 저탄소 녹색성장 및 그린물류정책을 시행하고 있는 일본의 그린물류정책을 고찰하고 그 시사점을 도출해 보고자 한다.

With the increased interest in recent years, environmental problems of global warming has emerged as key issues in the international community. In particular, the Kyoto Protocol enters into force as from 2005 Bureau of reducing greenhouse gas emissions has been developed for the various efforts. To reduce greenhouse gas emissions in the current logistics environment-friendly or green logistics introduces the concept of logistics is increasing. Korea is the world in 2004 for the next nine countries above the CO2 emissions and climate change post-Kyoto Protocol for reducing greenhouse gas emissions, such as the movement of the international community is driving the need to be addressed sensitively. Green logistics policy in Korea 2001 "National Logistics Master Plan 'was launched as the establishment. National logistics master plan then undergo a few modifications have now reached. However, Korea's green distribution policy compared with other developed countries have a relatively short history, lack of driving experience on the many challenges facing it is also true. This study earlier than Korea underwent low-carbon green growth and green distribution policy and distribution policy in Japan investigated green and its implications will be defined.

교토의정서 이후, 선진국에서는 환경변화에 대응하는 교통정책으로 도로위주의 운송체계에서 벗어나 친환경 수단으로 전환하는 Modal shift를 추진 중에 있으며, 지구온난화에 대응할 수 있는 친환경 운송수단으로서 철도의 역할을 강조하는 정책을 활발히 펼치고 있다. 이에 우리나라 정부는 지속가능 교통물류 발전법제 21조(전환교통지원)를 통해 Modal shift의 활성화를 정책적으로 지원하고 있다. 본 연구는 기존에 많은 연구자들이 제시하고 있는 Modal shift 활성화를 위한 정책과 지속가능 교통물류 발전법 제21조(전환교통지원)에 해당하는 정책사이의 영향관계를 구조방정식 모형으로 분석하였다. 분석은 AMOS 18.0을 통해 이루어 졌으며, Likert 5점 척도로 구성된 171부의 설문을 분석 데이터로 이용하였다. 분석결과 첫째, 환승/환적 시설 및 장비의 설치 대책은 Modal shift 활성화에 유의한 정(+)의 영향을 미치고, Modal shift 도입비용 최소화에도 유의한 정(+)의 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났다. 둘째, 보조금은환승/환적 시설 및 장비의 설치 대책에 유의한 정(+)의 영향을 미치지만, Modal shift 도입비용 최소화와 Modal shift 활성화에는 유의한 정(+)의 영향을 미치지못하는 것으로 나타났다. 셋째, Modal shift 도입비용 최소화는 Modal shift 활성화에 유의한 정(+)의 영향을 미치지 못하는 것으로 나타났다. Modal shift의 경제성에 있어 불합리한 요소로 작용하는 우리나라 국토는 시장의 논리만으로는 친환경 교통수단인 철도 이용 활성화에 어려움이 따른다. 이에정책적으로 Modal shift 활성화에 영향을 미치는 요인을 제시하고, 그것의 인과관계를 구조모형을 통해 제시함으로써 향후 수립될 구체적인 지속가능 교통물류 발전법 수립에 본 연구의 활용도가 높을 것으로 판단된다. 향후 외부비용의 내재화방안을 제시하여, Modal shift를 통해 기대할 수 있는 비용 효과를 구체적으로 분석하는 연구가 필요하다.

Advanced countries has responded to eco-friendly transportation system with Modal shift policy since the Kyoto Protocol(2005). And, they has conducted on eco-friendly transport policy measures to prevent global warming with emphasizing Modal shift roads to rails. Korea has supported Modal shift for eco-friendly transport policy, and builded Sustainable Transport Logistics Development Act Article 21 (Transportation Conversion Policy Measures). This Act Article 21 affects the relationship between policy measures which is described with structural equation modeling. In addition we analysed this Act Article 21 with policy measures from previous literatures that explored Modal shift and transportation conversion. We test the research framework both with collected data (using a sample size of 171), and AMOS 18.0 software. Findings of this research are as follows : First, strengthening link of roads to rails produces positive effects on minimization of Modal shift cost and promotion of Modal shift. Second, subsidies produces positive effects on strengthening link of roads to rails. But, subsidies does not produces positive effects on minimization of Modal shift cost and promotion of Modal shift. Third, minimization of Modal shift cost does not produces positive effects on promotion of Modal shift. Modal shift is not economic in korea that has limited land. This study utilized high that establish specific Sustainable Transport Logistics Development Act in future. Because of suggested policy measure factors that influence promotion of Modal shift and causal relationship between they. In the future, study that can be expected to analyze the cost-effectiveness through Modal shift that suggested to method of internalization of external cost is needed.

우리나라는 환경친화적 물류정책의 시행을 눈앞에 두고 있다. 당면과제로서 향후 약 5년 후에 달성해야 될 온실효과 배출가스 감축분에 대한 물류분야의 구체적 대응방안도 제시되어야 한다. 물류분야에서 향후 부정할 수 없는 정책목표는 도로수송의 의존도를 낮추고 환경부담이 적고 에너지 사용효율이 높은 운송수단으로의 전환을 달성하는 것이다. 이를 위한 한 가지 추진방안이 철도 모달시프트라고 생각된다. 본 연구에서는 친환경물류를 선진적으로 시행하고 있는 일본의 철도화물수송 활성화를 위한 물류정책을 조사, 분석한다. 일본의 철도 모달시프트 정책이 성공적으로 진행됨에 있어 몇 가지 특징을 알아낼 수 있었다. 첫째로 정책지원체제가 국토교통성을 필두로 다채널 정부기관간의 협력으로 기본계획과 시행계획을 5년 단위로 장기적 관점에서 실시된 점이다. 둘째로 정책의 효력을 발생시키는 부분에서 초기에는 물류분야의 철도화물운송사업자에서 물류기업으로 확대되었고, 중기에는 화주기업(물류수요 발생원)까지 연계하는 강력한 방안으로 발전하였으며, 말기에는 소비자 인식을 제고하여 기업의 시책참여의 동기를 더욱 높였다는 점이다. 우리나라의 철도화물수송 활성화에 시사할 점은 횡단적인 정부기관의 협조체계의 구축, 철도시설 및 장비에 대한 직접적 보조금지원책, 화주기업과 물류기업의 모달시프트 공동추진 실증실험에 대한 간접적 보조금지원책, 소비자까지 포괄하는 동기부여 시스템 등이 정책추진 기간 중에 중장기적으로 계획될 필요가 있다고 생각된다.

Korea faces enforcement of Green Logistics Policy. Detailed plans should be present which are gas reductions of the greenhouse effect in 5 years. In logistics field, one of the major objective is to lower dependence on road freight transportation and to convert to a energy-efficient transportation mode. Modal-shift to rail freight transportation is one of ways. This study analyzes Japanese logistics policy for rail freight transportation. Modal-shift of Japanese rail freight transportation may be called a success with follows features. First, policy supporting system has been took effect with multi-channel government department (as Ministry of land, Infrastructure, Transportation and Tourism, Ministry of Economy, Trade, Industry, Ministry of Internal Affair and Communications) as 5 years-plans. Second, the policy object became wider from rail freight transportation businesses to whole logistics businesses in the early stage. It is been stronger as including shippers in the middle stage. It read public awareness and company's participation for the Green Logistics. Suggestions for the facilitation in Korean rail freight transportation are present in this paper. It is needed that a cooperation system in government department, a direct subsidy policy to railroad infrastructures, a indirect subsidy policy to partnership experiment for railroad freight modal-shift as well as social certification system are synthesized.

Global warming has become one of the most important social responsibilities. After Kyoto protocol for greenhouse gas reduction by climatic change convention came into effect, developed countries are presenting various policies to reduce greenhouse gas that is produced in transport field. One of those policies is modal shift that change from road freight to sea, inland waterway and railway transportation that is eco-friendly. Because increase of road freight brings about road congestion and accident, logistics cost, air pollution and green house gases. Railways are superior to all other modes of transport in mass transportability, high speed, timeliness, safety and environmental-friendliness, but the railway industry has been pushed behind in competition. In developed country's government actively promoted relevant legislation, policies, and countermeasures known as modal shift policies to shift freight transport from road to large volume mode such as railway and ship. In this paper, we discuss the current situation in modal shift, compare it with cases in other countries EU and Japan, identify problems in Korea, and propose the following ways to enhance competitiveness of rail freight.

The purpose of this research is two-fold. First, we attempt to identify factors affecting the selection of a railway in inland transportation, especially a modal shift to a railway as an alternative to automobile transportation to construct an environment-friendly sustainable logistics system. Second, we seek to reveal relationships among those factors in selecting a railway as the most efficient transportation mode. This research employs a structural equation modeling technique, PLS(Partial Least Square), in order to analyze empirically how a modal shift to a railway and perceived factors influence a final decision to select a railway as a transportation mode by considering three factors (cost, efficiency, and service). We found that five out of nine hypotheses are accepted. The results are as follows. First, the intention of a modal shift to railway and the perceived factors have significant effects on railway selection. Second, transportation cost and service factors have positive effects on the intention of a modal shift. Transportation efficiency, however, has an insignificant effect on the intention of a modal shift to a railway. Cost, efficiency, and service factors little affect the perception of a railway.

This study is based on the assumption of surface transport linkages between Korea and China. Active economic cooperation between South Korea and North Korea are expected within the near future and Russia and China have interested in the land transport linkages in Korean peninsula. How much freight demands between the two countries that has been mainly dependent on air and sea transportation so far may convert the transport mode to surface transportation are estimated. Particularly, freight demands between South Korea and China's three northeast provinces are focused. The sensitivity analysis depends on transport time and transport cost changes is included. The modal shifts is estimated to be more sensitive to the changes in transport costs than those in transport time, suggesting the importance of transport costs of rail and road. Despite the dearth of data on the surface transport operation in North Korea, the attempts made in this study to estimate the demand conversion are hope to provide reference points for potential effects of the rail and road transport connections between China and the Korea peninsula before our discussions expand to the establishment of freight transport network of the northest Asia and, moreover, the Eurasian continent.

Interest about Modal Shift is not being decreased, and it is drawing limelight as green logistics which meets low carbon green growth of National development vision. As an effect of Modal Shift, not only reduction in CO2 emission but also reduction in social cost, logistics cost etc. are being discussed. However, until now research about its practical transformation effect has been scanty. In this study, the actual expenses via CO2 emission, social cost, and logistics cost etc. by road transportation and rail transportation of container cargo with Origin/Destination between Busan-Kyeonggi Area were calculated and we propose beneficial effects when transportation mode is transformed from road to rail with Scenario Planning.

본 연구의 목적은 국내 외 전환교통의 추진실태의 분석과 시사점을 토대로 한국에서 전환교통을 수립하기 위한 기본정책방향을 제시하는 데 있다. 중요한 연구내용은 전환교통정책의 이론적 고찰, 국내 외 전환교통실태와 정책분석, 한국의 전환교통정책의 수립방향 등을 포함하고 있다. 전환교통(modal shift)은 여객 또는 화물을 운송하는 데서 운송수단을 화물차에서 철도 또는 선박으로 전환하는 것이다. 전환교통은 범세계적인 환경규제의 시대에 친환경 물류체계를 달성할 수 있는 중요한 정책수단이다. 한국에서 기존 전환교통정책은 대상화물의 선정, 지원금의 지급대상과 산정기준 등에서 문제점이 나타나고 있다. 선진 외국의 전환교통정책을 살펴보면, 전환교통정책방향의 명확화, 실천 가능한 정책목표의 설정, 전환교통의 간접지원 강화 등의 시사점이 발견된다. 따라서 한국에서 전환교통정책을 활성화시키기 위해서는 정책의 수립단계부터 계획과 관리 측면에서 정책방향을 강구하는 것이 중요하다. 계획 측면의 전환교통정책의 수립방향은 전환교통정책 수립방향의 명확화, 운송수단별 사회적 비용 등 기초연구의 실시 및 철도시설정비방향의 설정 등으로 제시되고 있다. 한편 관리 측면에서 전환교통정책의 수립방향은 도로운송 지원정책과의 사전 상호조정 및 전환교통 대상화물의 전략적 관리 등으로 확인되어진다. 본 연구는 학술적인 정책연구의 특성이 강하다. 그래서 전환교통정책을 수립하는 데필요한 기본이론을 제공하며, 정책수립의 중요한 기본방향을 강구하는 데 연구의의가 있다.

This paper deals with modal shift projects and policy of modal shift services at home and abroad. This study aims to review the results of foreign modal projects in advanced countries and to suggest policy directions for promoting modal shift services in Korea. This paper consists of three main sections: concept of modal shift policy; analysis of modal shift projects and policy at home and abroad; policy directions of modal shift services in Korea. In recent years, shippers who shift mode from truck to rail or coastal shipping are subsidized by the government. The government intends to encourage modal shift services of shippers, as shown in the example of Marco Polo in EU. It is identified that the government should devise effective policy for the successful implementation of truck-rail modal shift in Korea. It is suggested that the policy goal of modal shift must be clear and its attainment is feasible in order to promote modal shift services here. It also turns out that indirect supply policy works better than direct one. Freight transport environments differ between countries. It, thus, hard to directly apply foreign policies to Korea's freight transport field. Korea is at an inceptive stage of exploring foreign modal shift policies and promoting modal shift services in Korea. We will gain from the wide range of case studies, which analyze the modal shift successes and failures experienced by advanced countries. It is necessary to use them with care.

Modal Shift from road to rail has been adapted in several countries as one of effective ways of reducing $CO_2$ emissions caused by transport. Generally, effect analysis of $CO_2$ reduction toward modal shift is calculated mainly from use stage and less consideration from other stages of life cycle, even though, in some case of modal shift needs that new line construction or new vehicle manufacturing. In this study, modal shift effect analysis is performed with considering construction, manufacturing vehicle and use stage. As a result we can get total $CO_2$ reduction effect using life cycle thinking and check the necessity of including other life cycle stage not only considering use stage. In conclusion, there is no $CO_2$ reduction effect if the reduction amount of $CO_2$ in use stage is not bigger than allocated annual amount of $CO_2$ in construction and manufacturing vehicle stage. According to this fact, analysing $CO_2$ reduction effect of Modal Shift should be considered not only the use stage.

2020 Korea GHG reduction goal is decreasing 4% compared with that of 2005. Effective counterplan of GHG redection goal needs to set for inductrial allocation and various reduction GHG technologies and policies for transportation have been developed. Modal shifr is one of these main policy and it focused on shifting as much freight as economically meaningful under current market conditions. It improves energy efficiency, consequently reduces GHG effect. This study is proposed as a preliminary studay of analyzing Modal shift effect. modal shift of car travelers to train is concerned in Seoul-Busan section, This study is based on a scenario which can maximize passenger occupancy rate to get the GHG reduction effect and the effect of modal shift of car to train is identified. According to this result, we can get GHG reduction effect through dealing with maximizing passenger occupancy rate on train. Therefore, in order to enhance this modal shift effect, train using rate need to increased and also improvement of policies and cost system are need to be considered to promote increasing use of train.

A lot of efforts are inclined by concluding the Kyoto Protocol in Japan for the exhaust decreasing of the $CO_2$ gas in 1997. The Japan Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism is promoting various policies through various policies such as `new synthesis logistics policy', 'green logistic partnership meeting', establishment of 'logistics efficiency law' etc. The modal shift case that the individual logistic company in Japan was promoting under such a policy was analyzed in this research, and a modal shift on the distribution site was very promoted, and applicability in our country was examined through the instruction point to this in the future.

trucks to rail for goods movement through the Southern California ports region, one of the severest non-attainment areas in terms of national air quality standards. Recent completion of the Alameda Corridor, a 20-mile rail expressway that conects the Ports of Long Beach and Los Angeles with rail mainlines near downtown Los Angeles, provides substantial reserve capacity for port traffic to be d road network to the rail line. On-road vehicles emissions were estimated using California mobile-source emissions model, EMFAC that incorporates a set of emissions factors for each vehicle type and an estimate of vehicle activity. These emissions were then compared with the emissions generated from trains increased to carry freight volume diverted from truck traffic. On the basis of year 2000 traffic level, it was estimated that for a 20 percent modal shift of port traffic, mobile-source emissions can be reduced up to 0.86 tons for nitrogen oxides and 16 kg for particulate matter per day. The analysis results indicate that encouraging the modal shift for port-related freight traffic should be an integral part of overall air quality improvement initiatives for the study area.

The lorry based transportation system in korea has many problems such as high domestic logistic cost, environment pollution and road damage etc. Hereupon, the necessity of improvement for national logistics system has been proposed continuously. Therefore we carried out this research through AHP(Analytic Hierarchy Process) to measure relative importance between effect factors and constraint factors and examined the possibility of Modal Shift from lorry transportation to coastal transportation. As the results of this research, the relative priority on modal shift policy enforcement (0.556) is higher than that of maintenance of the present transportation system(0.444).

Korea announced GHG reduction goal, 30% reduction compare with 2020 BAU and reduction target for each industry sector is planning. Transportation sector also trying to make effective technical and political counterplan of allocated GHG reduction target such as material lightening, energy efficiency improvement and Modal shift technology and so on. Modal Shift is shifting low energy efficiency vehicle to high energy efficiency vehicle which is economically meaningful under current market conditions. We can get not only energy efficiency improvement but also GHG reduction effect through modal shift. Modal Shift is effectively applying and studied in logistics field in Europe and Japan and one of the Indian companies has been registered CDM project activity involving modal shift from roadways to railways for finished goods. In this study, the scenarios are developed with detail modal shift ratio and fuel type base on state of road and rail use and GHG emission factor for each fuel type from MLTM. This result can be used as basic information to improve policies and promote increasing use of train which is more environment friendly transportation vehicle.

본 연구는 철도 기반 모달시프트가 환경성과, 물류성과 및 무역경쟁력에 미치는 구조적 영향을 실증적으로 분석하였다. 이를 위해 세계은행, EDGAR, UIC 등 국제기관의 통계자료를 활용하여 133개국의 2007-2018년 불균형 패널자료를 구축하고, 국가 및 연도 이원고정효과 모형을 적용하였다. 분석 결과, 첫째 초미세먼지(PM2.5) 농도는 물류성과(LPI)에 유의한 부(-)의 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타나 대기오염이 물류경쟁력을 저해함을 확인하였다. 둘째, 철도이용률은 물류성과에 유의한 정(+)의 영향을 미쳐 철도 중심 운송체계가 물류 효율성 향상에 직접적으로 기여함을 실증하였다. 셋째, 물류성과는 수출, 수입, 총교역량 모두에 유의한 정(＋)의 영향을 미치는 것으로 확인되어 물류성과가 무역경쟁력의 핵심 결정요인임을 입증하였다. 다만 운송부문 탄소배출 비중은 예상과 달리 물류성과에 양(+)의 영향을 보여, 경제발전 수준과 산업구조에 따른 구조적 특성이 반영된 것으로 해석되었다. 본 연구는 철도 인프라 투자가 기후변화 대응, 대기질 개선, 물류경쟁력 강화라는 다중 목표를 동시에 달성할 수 있는 정책 수단임을 시사하며, 환경정책과 물류정책의 통합적 추진 필요성을 제시한다.

Purpose - This paper empirically examines how railway-based modal shift relates to environmental performance, logistics performance, and trade competitiveness using international panel data. Amid tightening environmental regulations, it investigates whether greater rail utilization strengthens national trade competitiveness. Design/Methodology - This study constructs an unbalanced panel dataset covering 133 countries over six time points (2007, 2010, 2012, 2014, 2016, 2018), drawing on data from the World Bank, EDGAR, and UIC. A two-way fixed effects model controlling for both country and year effects is employed. Model 1 analyzes the effects of transport-sector CO2 emission share, PM2.5 concentration, and railway utilization on the Logistics Performance Index (LPI). Model 2 examines the impact of LPI on export, import, and total trade volume. Findings - The main findings are as follows. PM2.5 concentration has a significant negative effect on logistics performance, confirming that air pollution undermines logistics competitiveness, while railway utilization strongly enhances LPI. LPI, in turn, significantly boosts exports, imports, and total trade, establishing logistics performance as a key driver of trade competitiveness. Transportsector CO2 emission share shows an unexpected positive relationship with LPI, reflecting structural characteristics of advanced economies with large transport sectors. Originality/value - While existing studies have examined the individual relationships among railway utilization, environmental performance, logistics performance, and trade competitiveness, this paper provides an integrated empirical analysis of the sequential pathway from railway modal shift through environmental and logistics improvements to trade competitiveness enhancement. This study offers significant policy implications by demonstrating that railway infrastructure investment can simultaneously achieve climate change mitigation, air quality improvement, andlogistics competitiveness strengthening.