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1

4,000원

This study employs the Middle-Income Trap Theory (MITT) as a theoretical framework to identify strategic measures for sustaining the competitiveness of the K-defense industry in the global market. Rather than assuming that Korea’s defense industry is at a middle-income stage, the study draws on Korea’s successful experience in overcoming the MITT and reconstructs these national-level success factors at the industrial level. Through a systematic literature review, five strategic alternatives are derived: diversification of defense cooperation partners, continuous inflow of high-quality human capital, application of cutting-edge technologies, support for small and medium-sized enterprises, and compensation mechanisms for export-related losses. The relative importance of these alternatives is evaluated using the Analytic Hierarchy Process based on pairwise comparisons by 15 domain experts with an average of 26.7 years of experience. The consistency ratio of 0.08 confirms acceptable reliability. The results show that diversification of defense cooperation partners ranks first, followed by human capital, advanced technology application, SME support, and loss compensation. Theoretically, this study contributes by reconstructing MITT from a national-level framework into an industry-level analytical model and by demonstrating that sustained policy commitment and policy continuity beyond political cycles, combined with whole-of-government implementation, are essential for the long-term sustainable growth of the K-defense industry.

2

Convergence or Divergence : Middle Income Trap of China KCI 등재후보 KCI 등재

Haddou, Abdenour, Jang, Ji Young

부산대학교 중국전략연구소(구 부산대학교 중국연구소) Journal of China Studies 제21권 2호 2018.06 pp.165-176

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4,300원

China’s economic growth has been slowing down since 2008. The Middle income trap concept is getting an increasing attention in the context of China. China pursed a similar development strategy to Korea focusing on increase in capital accumulation and labor. The effect of this strategy has weakened in recent years. The middle income trap is referred to the phenomenon that the economic growth of developing countries is to slow down at around the middle income level. GDP of China is expected to reach $10,000 in 2018 which is classified as Middle Income by World Bank Classification. As another alternative to explain the growth slowdown of China in terms of Middle Income Trap, the theory of growth convergence was tested by comparing to development of Korea. The hypothesis is that the multiple growth convergence lines exist, therefore, the middle-income steady state can be arrived at through a gradual slowdown. The existence of different convergence path was tested using the data from Penn World Tables from 1995 to 2015. As for a proxy for steady state income level, the value of GDP per Capita PPP for the year t as compared to value of the GDP per Capita of the United State for the same year were calculated. The convergence hypothesis can be demonstrated as a negative correlation between the average rate of GDP growth per capita for the period and the level of GDP per capita at the beginning of the period. The results show that Korea made a jump to the high income convergence path, whereas China is at the inflection point where it could fall into the middle income trap or make a jump to the higher convergence line. From this points of development, only the endogenous factors such as human capital, innovation, R & D investment and elimination of corruption will be the ultimate drive for the sustainable growth. The economic structure transformation and enhancement of the total factor productivity are important factors in order to cross the line.

3

Middle Income Trap and the Export Sophistication: The Case of MENA Countries with Reference to Korea

Abdenour Haddou, 장지영, 김창수

[NRF 연계] 한국무역연구원 무역연구 Vol.13 No.6 2017.12 pp.1-18

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The globalization promotes specialization according to comparative advantage. The ability to shift nation’s comparative advantage in a globalized environment is an important key factor for middle income trapped countries. While the comparative advantage of resource-abundant countries such as Algeria, Saudi Arabia remains a given endowment factor, Korea managed to shift its comparative advantage from labor abundant to capital abundant. In order to understand the reasons of success and failure of economies, the competitiveness in international trade was examined. Historical changes in export structures using the Net Export Ratio were studied to determine whether countries’ industrial upgrading of exported goods follows a smooth transition. This study’s finding is that for trapped countries, the patterns of exporting mainly were concentrated at the primary goods and this narrow industrial base is thus a possible cause of the MIT. This trend has intensified during the period of 1995-2015 when free trade environment was dominant. As for Korea, the industrial upgrading process appears to be consistent with the “flying-geese model” indicating that the industrial upgrading process passed through the backward linkage from consumption goods to capital goods.

4

Thailand’s Middle-Income Trap: Firms’ Technological Upgrading and Innovation and Government Policies

Patarapong Intarakumnerd

[NRF 연계] 서울대학교 경제연구소 Seoul Journal of Economics Vol.32 No.1 2019.02 pp.107-135

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Once recognized as a high-performing newly industrializing economy, Thailand is currently in the middle-income trap. The country has remained at the middle-income level for more than 15 years. A major reason for such development is a relatively low technological learning of firms in Thailand. After a financial crisis in 1997, certain improvements transpired; for example, transnational corporations and large local firms started to invest increasingly in building rather sophisticated technological capabilities in product and process design, advanced engineering, and R&D. However, Thailand is still lacking a critical mass of innovative firms, which can pull the country out of the trap. On the government side, perpetuated ineffective science, technology, and innovation policies have been implemented for several decades.

5

Brazil and the Middle-Income Trap: Its Historical Roots

Eduardo da Motta e Albuquerque

[NRF 연계] 서울대학교 경제연구소 Seoul Journal of Economics Vol.32 No.1 2019.02 pp.23-62

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This paper evaluates the alternation between catching up periods and falling behind periods in Brazilian economic history, with data from 1870 to 2016. This alternation expresses the middle income trap. A tentative theoretical framework is presented, suggesting a two-dimensional process, with external forces (basically technological revolutions in leading countries) increasing the gap between Brazil and the leading economy, and internal forces (basically planned or unplanned internal efforts, especially industrial policies) reducing that gap. The historical origins of this long term middle income trap is discussed, with a special focus in the role of income inequality.

6

How to Escape the Middle-Income Trap: Lessons for the ODA Policy

김범

[NRF 연계] 서울대학교 행정대학원 Journal of Policy Studies Vol.38 No.1 2023.03 pp.45-58

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Despite the effort of official development assistance (ODA) since 1948, most of the countries experience decreasing marginal returns in the economic growth, resulting in middle-income trap. In the perspective that there must be an alternative ODA policy target to neo-classical economic theory, this study examines the configurations of economic and institutional factors that help the escape of middle-income trap. Previous middle-income trap studies investigated the slowdown of economic growth as a consequence of low total factor productivity and showed limited interest on institutional factors. Moreover, such studies based on regression could not draw the synergy of various factors. This study employed fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis to identify the combinations of economic and institutional factors that improve or reduce the possibility of the escape. The results suggest that while the overwhelming importance of total factor productivity still remains, configuration of institutional factors such as rule of law, property rights, anti-corruption, democratic institution is necessary to achieve the full escape of middle-income trap. The findings imply the need for not only financial aid but also institutional support for the developing countries to overcome the middle-income trap.

7

Can China Avoid the Middle-Income Trap?

이두원, 한일규

[NRF 연계] 한국동북아경제학회 동북아경제연구 Vol.26 No.2 2014.06 pp.207-244

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China has achieved miraculous economic growth during the last 35 years withthe average annual growth rate of roughly 9%. As the nominal income percapita approaches $7,000, however, there is a concern whether China can avoidthe so-called ‘middle-income trap (MIT)’. It means that the advantage ofbackwardness the Chinese economy has enjoyed so far has been exhausted, andChina needs to find a way to achieve a self-sustainable growth path in thefuture. Unfortunately, however, many developing countries after the World War IIhave failed to escape MIT after they reach a certain level of income. Generallyspeaking, these countries have reached 20-30% level of the US per-capita incomelevel successfully, but their catch-up processes have been stagnant afterward. Inparticular, countries in MIT could not increase their per-capita income levelbeyond the 40% of the US per-capita income level. These countries sharecommon characteristics like the followings: lack of highly educated humancapital, lack of self-innovation capability, high degree of income inequality,insufficient and inefficient investment, and failure to upgrade its industrialstructure. Even though China does not share all of these characteristics, Chinastill has problems such as rapidly aging population, deteriorating income distribution, and inefficient allocation of capital. There are only a few countries who have escaped the middle-income trapsuccessfully after the World War II in Asia. They are Japan, Korea, Taiwan,Singapore, and Hong Kong. These countries have passed the threshold incomelevel of 40% of the U.S. per capita income level, and have reached 60 to 80%of the U.S. per capita income level by today. Out of these countries, however,Korea and Japan would be the most relevant countries China can draw policyimplications as the other three countries differ vastly from China in terms of itsindustrial structure and economic size. When China is compared to thesecountries, China needs to improve the efficiency of capital allocation. Also,recent slowdown of TFP (total factor productivity) needs to be tackled seriously. Resolving these problems along with other social problems will eventuallydetermine whether China can avoid MIT or not.

8

Can Turkey Escape from the Middle- Income Trap? What Has Been Done? What Can Be Done? Lessons from South Korea

Mustafa Malkoc YASAR

[NRF 연계] 서울대학교 경제연구소 Seoul Journal of Economics Vol.32 No.1 2019.02 pp.63-82

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Turkey has been a middle-income country for nearly half a century. Unlike Turkey, South Korea has managed to rapidly grow and become a high-income country. The success of South Korea may be an inspiration for many developing countries that cannot move from the middle-income trap, such as Turkey. This qualitative study focuses on the dynamics of development in both countries. Population, education, foreign trade, and R&D policies since 1953 are examined. Lessons from South Korea show that upgrading exports from low and middle tech to high tech is crucial for economic development.

9

Caught-In or Breaking-Free from the Middle Income Trap: The Case of Malaysia

Chan-Yuan Wong, Hon-Ngen Fung

[NRF 연계] 서울대학교 경제연구소 Seoul Journal of Economics Vol.32 No.1 2019.02 pp.1-22

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Malaysia is among the developing economies that has shown relative promise in breaking its middle income trap (MIT). However, the lack of sophistication of institutions for industrial upgrade and the attainment of productive routines means that many local firms remain self-organized and suffer from the absence of complementarities. This study seeks to understand Malaysia’s position on MIT and compare the country’s current trajectory against newly industrialized economies (e.g., South Korea and Taiwan). This study focuses on five explorations that depict Malaysia’s performance position in achieving developed status: (1) income and foreign direct investment, (2) economic structure, (3) upgrading, (4) social capital, and (5) education. This study argues that the key barriers that prevent Malaysia from exiting MIT stem from the lack of effective measures in terms of social capital to improve education and institutions. Thus, the development of productive routines with instituted inclusive measures to accelerate the upgrading process is crucial to break MIT.

10

An Empirical Analysis of Influencing Factors to Avoid Falling into the Middle Income Trap for Developing Countries

Jun Zhao, 이서영

[NRF 연계] 한국무역연구원 무역연구 Vol.15 No.5 2019.10 pp.77-87

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Purpose - This paper examines the effect of some important economic indicators on the economic growth of developing countries. In particular, this study analyzes 8 economic variables of 9 typical developing countries with annually observed data covering the period from 1996 to 2018 through empirical methods. Design/methodology/approach - The study selects GDP growth rate Per capita as the dependent variable, and selects Consumption Level, Urbanization, Capital Formation, Open Degree of Trade, Population Growth Rate, Human Capital Level, Inflation Rate, and Investment Level as independent variables. The variable selection not only considers structural indicators that affect economic growth, such as consumption, investment, the ratio of trade to GDP, and so on, but also considers the influencing factors on a country's economic growth in a certain historical period, such as urbanization and population, and meanwhile takes such macroeconomic variables as open degree of trade and inflation rate into consideration. The study begins with a test of the stationarity for the concerned variables. The unit root test shows that all concerned variables were stationary. Findings - Empirical evidence using OLS (Ordinary Least Square method) finds that human capital level and investment level are significant for promoting economic growth; open degree of trade and population growth rate are negative for economic growth; and consumption level, urbanization, capital formation, and inflation rate are not significant for either promoting or holding back economic development. Research implications or Originality - This paper provides references for developing countries to avoid falling into the middle income trap, and to enrich the theoretical and practical basis on the study of the middle income trap.

11

A Review of Books : Reflections on Catch-up: The Spread of Catch-up and the Middle-Income Trap

申璋燮

[NRF 연계] 서울대학교 경제연구소 Seoul Journal of Economics Vol.27 No.3 2014.08 pp.387-390

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12

중진국 함정과 성장의 제약

김종일

[NRF 연계] 동국대학교 사회과학연구원 사회과학연구 Vol.30 No.2 2023.06 pp.87-104

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본 연구는 2010년대 이후 유행한 중진국 함정에 대한 논의를 발전시켜 성장의 제약이라는관점에서 중진국 함정을 고찰하였다. 본 연구는 거시경제관리, 무역과 개방, 인프라, 인적자본, 산업 및 무역구조, 법과 제도 등 다양한 분야의 지표를 이용하여 저소득, 하위중소득, 상위중소득, 고소득으로 나눈 소득군별 국가의 차이가 이들 지표에 의해 어떻게 설명되는지를 국가간패널분석을 통하여 알아보았다. 본 연구에 따르면 저소득국과 하위중소득국의 차이를 결정하는 요인으로서는 총저축율, 인터넷 사용인구 비율, 농업고용비중이 통계적으로 유의하며, 하위중소득국과 상위중소득국의 차이를 결정하는 요인으로서는 순해외투자유입, 인터넷 사용인구비율, 농업 부가가치 비중, 수출 중 제조업 비중, 정부의 효과성이 유의하였다. 상위중소득국과고소득국간의 차이를 결정하는 요인으로서는 인플레율, 순해외투자유입, 정부의 효과성, 공해, 지니계수 등이 유의하였다. 이러한 본 연구의 실증결과는 소득군간의 차이를 결정하는 요인은소득 수준이 증가함에 따라 차이를 보인다. 저소득국 수준에서는 투자, 인프라, 산업구조 등 기존의 발전론에서 논의된 요인들이 중요하지만, 중소득국으로 진입하면 정부의 효과성 등 제도적 측면이 중요해진다. 특히 고소득국이 되기 위해서는 거시경제 관리, 법과 제도, 환경, 소득형평 등의 사회발전이 중요해진다. 이는 중진국 함정을 논의하기 위해선 기존의 산업경쟁력에서 벗어나 거시경제 관리, 법과 제도 등 정부의 역할과 사회발전이 중요해짐을 시사한다.

This study investigates the discussion on the middle-income trap by analyzing the factors differentiating the income groups from the perspective of growth constraints. This study selects various indicators in areas such as macroeconomic management, trade and openness, infrastructure, human capital, industrial and trade structures, and laws and institutions to examine differences in countries by income group divided into low-income, lower-middle-income, upper-middle-income, and high-income. According to the empirical results of this study, the factors that determine the difference between each income group show they are changing as income increases. At the level of low-income countries, the previously discussed factors such as investment, infrastructure, and industrial structure are important. However, institutional aspects such as government effectiveness becomes more important as income level rises. In particular, in order to become a high-income country, macroeconomic management, laws and institutions, environment, and income equality become more important. It suggests that comprehensive factors such as macroeconomic management, governance, environment and social equality should be discussed rather than narrowly defined industrial competitiveness.

13

중국 인구통계학적 요인과 중진국함정 연구

이성란

[NRF 연계] 한양대학교 아태지역연구센터 중소연구 Vol.38 No.4 2015.02 pp.131-154

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중국의 경제성장 둔화를 두고 중국 내 상당수의 “중진국 함정”연구가 진행됐다. 하지만 기존 연구는 인구요소를 노동력 차원으로 제한하는 한계를 극복하지 못했다. 이에 본문은 인구학적 관점에서 지속적인 경제성장 가능성을 판단하는 중진국 함정의 요인을 살펴보았다. 먼저 출산률 저하에 따른 연령구조의 변화는 노동시장 측면에서 살펴보면 노동력 공급의 감소로 인해 구조적인 공급부족이 심화되어 노동시장 분할과 노동자 계층간 격차 확대로 인한 사회적 불안정이 우려된다. 또한 인적자원 개발 부분 중 고등교육의 불균형으로 대졸자 취업 양극화라는 구조적인 불평등이 심화되고 있다. 국가재정 측면에서 보면, 급격한 고령화로 인해 연금 기금 마련을 위한 국가재정 지출은 국가 부채를 악화시킬 것이다. 저축의 측면에서 보면, 성비불균형으로 인해 높아지는 저축률은 유효수요의 감소를 야기할 것이다. 마지막으로 이상의 문제를 해결하고자 중국정부가 내놓은 산아제한완화 정책 및 그 효과를 살펴본 결과, 출산 예상 둘째 자녀의 수도 년 150만 명 수준에 머물 것으로 예상되며, 이로 인한 경제적 효과는 부분적으로는 둘째 출산에 따른 관련 산업의 유효수요 증대를 가져올 수 있으나 보다 포괄적으로는 유소년부양비를 증대로 ‘인구배당 효과’를 더 빨리 감소시키는 요인으로 작용할 것으로 판단된다. 이상 인구학적 관점에서 인구변동과 경제성장을 살펴본 결과, 인구문제는 구조적이며 전방위적으로 경제성장에 마이너스 요인이 될 것으로 판단된다.

There are a lot of study about “middle-income trap” in china after 2010 when Chinese economy slowing down. However most of them limited demographic factor as labor supply part only, so this study is trying to focus on relationship demographic factor and economic growth. Specifically refined those studies by demographic factor how could affect to labor market, human resources, national finance and saving. At first, low fertility has caused China's population age structure to change, lead to decrease 'population's bonus' as increase total dependency ratio. as a result this dependency ratio bites into economic growth. Second, decreased labor supply cause wage increase and this trend will be prolonged. and the presence of a structural shortage of labour supply will deteriorate. Third, aging cause the financial situation of the old age pension/retirement fund is headed for the rocks. Fourth, the gender imbalance rising households' savings rate. and it could disadvantage to boost the domestic market. There for chinese government is implementing various policies to solving population problems, but the policy failed to boost the domestic market also. In conclusion, present demographic factor bad enough in any circumstance.

14

중국은 중진국 함정에 빠질 것인가?

한동훈

[NRF 연계] 고려대학교 아세아문제연구원 아세아연구 Vol.56 No.2 2013.06 pp.152-194

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중국의 중진국 진입과 최근의 성장률 하락 추세는 중국이 중진국함정에 빠질 가능성에 대한 광범위한 우려를 낳고 있다. 중진국함정은 중남미, 동남아, 중동, 북아프리카 등지에 광범위하게 존재하는 현상으로서, 중등소득국으로부터 고소득국으로 발전하기 위해서는 저개발국으로부터 중진국으로 도약할 때와는 확연히 다른 발전방식이 요구된다. 남미 국가들과의 비교를 통해 발견되는 점은 중국이 남미 국가들이 지니고 있는 특징들을 매우 부분적으로만 가지고 있다는 것이다. 공급 측면과 수요 측면으로 나누어 중국의 고도성장 지속 가능성을 진단해 본 결과 공급 측면보다는 수요 측면이 성장의 병목이 될 가능성이 높은 것으로 나타나고 있다. 경제발전에 가장 큰 장애가 되는 것은 빈부격차 확대, 국유기업 독점, 과도한 저축률과 낮은 소비율, 과도한 투자 등이 꼽힌다. 핵심적인 정책 과제로는 국유기업 독점의 타파, 추가적인 시장화 개혁, 투자자로서의 정부로부터 사회관리자로의 정부 기능 전환, 교육 투자 증대를 통한 인적 자본 확충 등이 제시된다.

The entry of China into the middle income group and the recent downward trend of growth rate are arousing widespread concern about the possibility of China’s falling into the middle income trap. Middle income trap is a phenomenon that is prevalent across Latin America, Middle East, Southeast Asia, Northern Africa etc., and overcoming it requires a totally different strategy or development pattern than when a country moves from an under-developed country to a middle income country. What is found from the comparison between China and the Latin American countries is that China shares only limited characteristics with the Latin American countries. Through the examination on the sustainability of high grow of China, the demand side rather than the supply side has higher possibility of becoming a bottleneck to economic growth. The biggest bottlenecks to sustained growth are suggested to be the widening income discrepancy, monopoly by the state enterprises, excessively high saving rate and excessively low consumption rate, over-investment. Those policy measures to address these problems are suggested, including the overthrow of state enterprise monopoly, additional marketization reform, the change in the role of the government, accumulation of human capital through expansion of investment in education.

15

중국의 저성장과 ‘중진국함정론’에 근거한 위기요인 분석

김의동

[NRF 연계] 국제지역학회 국제지역연구 Vol.20 No.2 2016.06 pp.113-140

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본 논문에서는 선행 연구를 통해 중진국 함정 논의의 주요 근거들을 추출하고 이들 근거를 중국경제 현실에 적용하여 ‘중국 중진국 함정 논의’의 객관적 근거와 위기 요인을 우선 확인해 보려 하였다. 그런 다음 향후 함정에 빠지지 않기 위해 중국이 어떤 경제개혁을 추진해야 하는지에 대해 살펴보는 것을 중요한 과제로 삼고 있다. 함정 유발 요인에 대한 선행 연구 검토 후 추출한 6가지 핵심 요인을 준거로 삼아 중국 경제에 대응시켜 본 결과 중국경제가 중진국 함정에 빠질 수 있는 가능성이 높아지고 있어 중대한 전환점에 서 있음을 알 수 있었다. ‘과잉투자’-‘과잉설비’에 따른 ‘TFP 지속감소, ‘인구보너스 소멸과 고령화’, ‘경제주체별 과다 부채와 기업구조조정 및 금융불안정’, ‘소득불균등 확대’, ‘정보통신 확산과 금융 인프라 접근성 및 투명성 지수 등 사회적 자본 미비’ 등의 문제가 큰 우려요인으로 등장했음을 알 수 있었다. 그런데 이들 위기 신호들은 모두 지금까지의 중국이 추진해 온 성장모델, 즉 요소투입형 성장과 정부주도 부채의존형 성장모델의 한계를 보여주고 있다는 점에서 정부실패 교정을 필요로 하는 것들임을 또한 확인할 수 있었다. 함정을 피하기 위한 중국 정부의 정책방향은 대체로 제대로 설정된 상태이지만 이행과정이 쉽지 않다는 증거가 곳곳에서 나타나고 있었다. 결국 지금까지의 각종 ‘정부 실패’를 수정할 수 있는 정부 차원의 혁신에만 매달려서는 명확한 한계에 봉착할 수 있으므로 어떻게든 시장의 자체적인 상시 구조조정 능력이 배양될 수 있는 틀을 만들어 내는 것이 중국의 경우 더 없이 중요한 요소임을 알 수 있었다. 특히 2015년부터 위안화 SDR 편입이 확정되면서 대외적 측면에서도 큰 제약에 직면할 수밖에 없어 향후 중진국 함정 탈출을 위한 정책지향은 더욱 큰 제약에 직면할 수 있음도 알 수 있었다.

This paper first extracts the main basis for the Middle-Income Trap(MIT) to apply these grounds to reality of the Chinese economy. And then confirmed crisis factors of China economy. Also discussed then the economic reforms of China in order to not fall into the MIT. After reviewing previous research extracted six factors the results will correspond to comply with the Chinese economy. Those are ‘Over-investment’, ‘excess capacity’ ‘reduction of TFP continued,’ ‘disappearance and the aging of the population bonus’, ‘excessive debt and structural adjustment and financial instability of the company’, ‘income unequal expansion’, ‘low financial and information infrastructure accessibility‘, and ‘low transparency index’. China's policy direction to avoid the MIT generally set properly, but proof that implementation process not easy, was appearing everywhere. After all, China economy should be modified now to a reforms of ‘government failure’ and promotion of function for ongoing restructuring system in the market. Because of the SDR incorporation from 2015, it is inevitable to face major constraints in the external aspects.

16

중진국 함정과 선진국 전략

이근

[NRF 연계] 참여연대 시민과 세계 Vol.7 2005.05 pp.161-186

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17

기계산업에서의 중진국 함정과 기술추격: 한국 기계산업의 사례

김윤지

[Kisti 연계] 기술경영경제학회 기술혁신연구 Vol.14 No.1 2006 pp.147-175

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One of the biggest problems of Korean economy is polarization of firms for export and domestic demand and that of conglomerates and SME's achievement. One of the culprits lies weakness of intermediate industry such as machine tool. Since intermediate industry is important path where export performance affects domestic demand and whose actor usually is SMEs with high spill over effect in labor market. Especially, intermediate industry Is vulnerable because of industrial policy biased In backward linkage effect. However if a country fails to develop intermediate industry above some critical point, that country would fall in low-tech equilibrium without growth. In case of benign circle where final goods industry growth leads growth of intermediate industry and again it leads that of final goods industry, it can reach high-tech equilibrium. By contrast, in opposite case where in industrialization latecomer fails to link industries likewise above some critical point that country would fall in low-tech equilibrium without growth. Moreover, for several reasons, machine tool firms of Korea have difficulty in catching up technology above critical point. Firstly. Conglomerate demander neglects their product. Secondly, even after success of development overcoming difficulties they fail to get market share for response of dumping of foreign competitors. And the last one is patent litigation of foreign competitors that incapacitate the technology development. For these, Korean machine tool firms fell in 'middle-income country trap' itself, since they stuck in some extent when they technologically catch up. Consequently, for latecomer country in machine tool industry to leapfrog meaningfully policy support is necessary, Weak intermediate industry does not Induce domestic firms and remained fragile. Therefore, localization, policy should reflect condition of technological catch up more than before, in order to be effective and fruitful. There should be turning point over relationship between conglomerates, major demander of machine tool and SME's, for only with active purchasing of conglomerate Korean machine industry can grow.

18

한국경제 저성장 함정과 구조적 요인-중진국함정 주요 발생 요인과 비교를 중심으로-

김의동

[NRF 연계] 전북대학교 산업경제연구소 아태경상저널 Vol.11 No.3 2019.11 pp.126-156

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본 논문에서는 선행 문헌연구를 통해 중진국함정과 저성장의 주요 발생요인들을 우선 추출한 뒤에 이들 요인들을 한국경제 현실에 적용하여 한국 구조적 저성장이 중진국함정 발생의 주요 요인들에 어느 정도 맞물려 있는지 여부를 우선 확인해 보려 하였다. 그런 다음 향후 저성장 함정에서 벗어나기 위해 한국이 어떤 경제개혁을 추진해야 하는지에 대해 살펴보는 것을 중요한 과제로 삼고 있다. 중진국함정 유발 요인에 대한 선행 연구 검토 후 추출한 6가지 핵심 요인을 준거로 삼아 한국 경제에 대응시켜 본 결과, 한국경제도 중진국 함정의 주요 발생요인들로 인해 구조적 저성장에 빠져 있으며 중대한 전환점에 서 있음을 알 수 있었다. 구체적으로는 총요소생산성 지속감소, 인구보너스 소멸과 고령화, 부채주도적 경제성장의 제약, 소득불균등 확대, 기업구조조정 지연 및 디지털자본 및 산업혁신의 지연, 규제장벽 및 투명성 지수 등 사회적 자본 축적 미비 등의 중진국 함정 발생 핵심요소들 모두가 한국 경제성장과 발전에 큰 장애요인으로 등장했음을 알 수 있었다. 그런데 이들 위기 신호들은 모두 지금까지 한국이 추진해 온 성장모델, 즉 요소투입형 성장과 정부주도 성장모델의 한계를 보여주고 있다는 점에서 정부실패 교정을 필요로 하는 것들임을 또한 확인할 수 있었다. 저성장 함정을 피하기 위한 한국 정부의 ‘포용-공정-혁신’이라는 정책기조는 제대로 설정된 상태이지만 이행과정이 쉽지 않다는 증거가 곳곳에서 나타나고 있었다. 결국 지금까지의 각종 정부 실패를 수정하기 위한 정부 차원의 혁신에만 매달려서는 명확한 한계에 봉착할 수 있다. 따라서 어떻게든 규제혁신 및 산업혁신을 통해 미래성장동력을 새롭게 구축하는 한편 시장의 자체적인 상시 구조조정 능력이 배양될 수 있는 틀을 만들어 내는 것이 한국경제 미래를 위해 더 없이 중요한 요소임을 알 수 있었다.

This paper first extracts the main basis for the Middle-Income Trap(MIT) to apply these grounds to Secular Stagnation reality of the Korea economy. And then confirmed crisis factors of Korea economy. Also discussed then the economic reforms of Korea in order to escape from the MIT. After reviewing previous research extracted six factors the results will correspond to comply with the Korea economy. Those are 'continuous reduction of TFP' ‘disappearance and the aging of the population bonus', 'excessive debt and structural adjustment and financial instability of the company', 'income unequal expansion', ’low competitiveness of financial and digital industry, future growth industry’, and ‘high regulation and low transparency index'. Korea's policy direction to avoid the MIT generally set properly, but proof that implementation process not easy, was appearing everywhere. After all, Korea economy should be transformed now to a reforms of 'government failure' and promotion of function for ongoing restructuring system in the market. It is inevitable to face major constraints and uncertainties to develop the structural transformation in both the internal and the external aspects.

 
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