AHP를 활용한 K-방산(Korea-defense) 지속성장 전략의 우선순위 분석 : 중진국 함정 이론을 중심으로
A Priority Analysis of Sustainable Growth Strategies for the Korea-Defense Industry Using the Analytic Hierarchy Process : Focusing on the Middle-Income Trap Theory
This study employs the Middle-Income Trap Theory (MITT) as a theoretical framework to identify strategic measures for sustaining the competitiveness of the K-defense industry in the global market. Rather than assuming that Korea’s defense industry is at a middle-income stage, the study draws on Korea’s successful experience in overcoming the MITT and reconstructs these national-level success factors at the industrial level. Through a systematic literature review, five strategic alternatives are derived: diversification of defense cooperation partners, continuous inflow of high-quality human capital, application of cutting-edge technologies, support for small and medium-sized enterprises, and compensation mechanisms for export-related losses. The relative importance of these alternatives is evaluated using the Analytic Hierarchy Process based on pairwise comparisons by 15 domain experts with an average of 26.7 years of experience. The consistency ratio of 0.08 confirms acceptable reliability. The results show that diversification of defense cooperation partners ranks first, followed by human capital, advanced technology application, SME support, and loss compensation. Theoretically, this study contributes by reconstructing MITT from a national-level framework into an industry-level analytical model and by demonstrating that sustained policy commitment and policy continuity beyond political cycles, combined with whole-of-government implementation, are essential for the long-term sustainable growth of the K-defense industry.
목차
Abstract 1. 서론 2. 이론적 배경 2.1 중진국 함정 이론 2.2 MITT관점에서의 K-방산 지속성장 방안 3. 연구방법 3.1 계층적분석기법(AHP) 3.2 연구설계 4. 연구결과 5. 결론 5.1. 연구결과의 요약 5.2. 연구의 의의와 기여점 5.3. 연구의 한계점과 향후 연구 방향 [Acknowledgements] [References]