Earticle

본 연구는 한국은행에서 발표한 지역간 산업연관표를 수도권과 비수도권으로 구분하여 재분류한 후 수도권과 비수도권간의 경제적 효과를 비교분석하고, 이로부터 정책적 시사점을 도출하였다. 수도권과 비수도권의 각종 유발계수의 평균치는 거의 모든 부문에서 비수도권의 계수가 수도권에 비해 약간 더 높았다. 다만 부가가치승수만 상대적으로 약간 더 낮았다. 이는 제한된 자금을 가지고 투자할 경우 일반적으로 비수도권에 투자하는 것이 보다 더 큰 파급효과를 창출한다는 것을 나타내는 것이다. 일정한 금액을 투자할 시 수도권과 비수도권에 미치는 생산 및 부가가치 파급효과도 수도권에 비해 비수도권에 투자하는 것이 일반적으로 더 높았다. 다만 건설업에 투자할 시 고용유발효과는 수도권이 더 높았다. 다른 측면으로 해석하면 수도권의 발전이 지방경제를 발전시키는 확산효과보다는 수도권의 발전으로 지방경제가 수도권으로 흡인되는 빨대효과 내지 역류효과가 크다는 것을 나타내는 것이다. 그리고 산업부문별로 동일한 금액을 투자하더라도 수도권, 대구경북권, 기타권에 미치는 파급효과는 약간 씩 달랐다. 따라서 어떤 투자 프로젝트를 추진할 때 이러한 파급효과를 고려하여 지역적으로 투자하는 것이 보다 효과가 있을 것으로 판단된다.

This study analyzes various economic effects of Seoul Metropolitan Area(SMA) and non-Seoul Metropolitan Area(NSMA) using the interregional input-output model. The main political implications are as follows. First, the average value of various requirement coefficients of NSMA is higher than that of SMA. Only the value-added multiplier of NSMA is lower than that of SMA. This implies that investments on NSMA create bigger spread effects than investments on SMA do. Second, the analysis shows that the backwash effects of the development of SMA are greater than its spread effects: the development of SMA tends to absorb resources from regional economies rather than to boost those economies. Finally, the spread effects of investments are different depending on which region and which industry sector the investments are made into. When an investment plan is designed, therefore, various requirement effects of the projects should be considered in the decision where the investment should be made.

본 연구는 한국은행에서 발표한 2013년 지역산업연관표를 이용하여 수도권과 비수도권 제조업의 경제적 유발효과를 비교 분석한 연구이다. 분석을 위해 16개 권역을 수도권과 비수도권으로 재분류하고 산업은 30개 산업대분류 중 제조업 부문 13개 부문을 별도로 분류하였다. 분석결과 비수도권 제조업의 생산유발계수와 감응도계수, 고용승수와 부가 가치승수가 비수도권에 비해 더 높았고, 특히 생산유발계수와 감응도계수가 큰 폭으로 차이가 났다. 수도권은 부가가치유발계수와 영향력계수, 고용유발계수가 비수도권에 비해 약간 더 높았을 뿐이다. 이는 어떤 산업에 투자할 경우 비수도권에 투자하는 것이 수도권 보다 더 큰 유발효과를 창출한다는 것을 나타내는 것이다. 2003년지역산업연관표를활용하여분석한결과와비교하면, 과거에는수도권에비해비수도권의 경제적 유발효과가 훨씬 높았는데, 10년이 지난 최근에는 그 효과가 점차 떨어졌다. 전체적 으로 보면 비수도권 제조업의 유발효과가 수도권에 비해 높았지만, 과거에 비해 떨어지고 있다. 특정산업의 투자에 따른 파급효과는 주요 업종에 따라 달리 나타났으므로 어떤 투자 사업을 수행할 시에는 권역별 파급효과를 분석한 다음 투자 우선순위를 결정해야 할 것이다.

The purpose of this paper is to estimate the economic inducement effects of manufacturing industry in metropolitan and non-metropolitan areas using the regional input-output table. For the analysis, 16 regions were reclassified into the metropolitan and non-metropolitan areas, and the industry was divided into 13 sectors of the manufacturing industries among the 30 industrial categories separately. The analysis showed that the production inducement coefficient, sensitivity coefficient, employment multiplier and value added multiplier of manufacturing industries in non-metropolitan area were higher than those of the metropolitan area, and in particular, the production inducement coefficient and sensitivity coefficient were significantly different. The value added inducement coefficient, the influence coefficient, and the employment inducement coefficient in metropolitan area were only slightly higher than those of the non-metropolitan area. This means that investment in non-metropolitan area generally creates a greater inducement effect than that in metropolitan area, in case of investing with limited funds. The problem of concentration of economic power in the metropolitan area can not be regulated by the market organizations, and it should be considered in terms of balanced development between regions. The regional distribution of economic power in Korea is the one-sided concentration structure of Seoul and metropolitan area. The balanced regional development strategy can not depend solely on simple economic logic, and it is necessary to approach in the perspective of survival of the province regions and to resolve deprivation of people. Compared to the results of my analysis using the regional input-output table in 2003, the economic inducement effect of non-metropolitan area was much higher than that of metropolitan area in the past. Ten years later, the effect has gradually decreased. That is, the inducement effect of manufacturing industry was comprehensively higher than that in metropolitan area. and yet the gap becomes smaller. In particular, the impacts of investment in metropolitan and non-metropolitan areas have been different depending on major manufacturing industries, and so, when conducting any investment project, it is necessary to analyze the inducement effects by region and prioritize investment.

생산사슬의 관점에서 산업간 연계를 분석할 경우 그 측정수단으로 평균전파길이가 이용된다. 현재 평균전파길이를 추정하는데 단일지역 투입-산출 모형의 맥락에서 유도된 수리적 방법이 이용된다. 그런데 단일지역 투입-산출 모형 기반의 평균전파길이 추정치는 지역간 산업연계에 의한 생산사슬 부분을 반영하지 못하는 과소추정의 문제를 갖는다. 이러한 과소추정의 문제에 착안하여 본 연구는 지역간 투입-산출 모형의 맥락에서 평균전파길이를 추정하기 위한 수리모형을 수립하고 이를 실증적으로 적용하는데 초점을 맞춘다. 수립된 모형을 평가하기 위한 방편으로 2015지역산업연관표를 이용하여 단일지역 투입-산출의 맥락과 지역간 투입-산출 맥락에서의 평균전파길이 추정치를 비교함으로써 전자의 추정치가 갖는 과소추정의 정도를 시도별 산업별로 측정하였다. 본 연구결과는 산업생산사슬을 분석할 경우 과소추정으로 인한 왜곡을 피하기 위해서는 본 연구를 통하여 개발된 지역간 투입-산출 모형 기반의 평균전파길이 추정모형을 이용하는 것이 타당하다는 것을 보여준다.

When industrial linkages are studied from the perspective of production chains, the average propagation length (APL) is relevant. The mathematical formula that is currently used to estimate the APL is constructed in the context of the single-region input-output model. Yet, APL estimates based on the single-region model are exposed to the problem of underestimation, which is caused from its failure to capture the segments of production chains that are formed by industrial linkages between different regions. To overcome the underestimation problem inherent to the single-region based estimation of APL, this paper proposes the formal model of measuring the APL in the context of the interregional input-output model and demonstrates the proposed model’s advantage by empirically applying it with the model to the 2015 Interregional Input-Output Table in Korea. The results of the analysis indicate that the APL should be measured by the formal model formulated in the context of the interregional input-output model, which is developed through this paper.

Purpose: This study analyzes the economic Impact of distribution industry in Jeollanamdo, Korea. This study has significance in that it sought future development plans by examining the trends, current status, distribution Industry features and economic impact of the distribution industry in Jeollanamdo. Because Jeollanam-do is a region where the distribution industry is sluggish, academic research is necessary. To this end an Inter-Regional Input-Output (IRIO) model was employed to derive distribution multipliers in terms of output, income, employment, and value-added, using the regional I-O transactions tables developed by Bank of Korea (2010 and 2013). Research design, data, and methodology: In this study, the regional input­output table was used as a data base to analyze the distribution industry in Jeollanamdo using an interregional input-output model. In particular, a 3 by 3 industry-related analysis was conducted to understand the economic impact. The previous study consisted of a 2x2 I-O table. The difference, however, is the analysis of the 3x3 I-O table. Results: The total production effect of the Jeollanamdo‘s distribution industry was about 38 trillion won, the total income effect was about 8 trillion won and the total value added effect was about 21 trillion won. In addition, the total employment effect was about 290,000. As a result of the study, Jeollanam-do had many positive economic impacts on neighboring regions and other regions. Conclusions: The impact of Jeollanamdo’s Distribution Industry, especially on channel and retail industry, was analyzed by using IRIO (Inter-Regional Input-Output) model. For IRIO analysis, multipliers were derived from "2010 / 2013 Inter-regional Input-Output Table (Bank of Korea)" including direct and indirect effects. This result suggests that from the aspect of regional level the appropriate industrial policy for Distribution Industry should be developed. It is also expect that the result will be the basic resources of Distribution Industry not only for technical research, but also for the strategies for industries.

The purpose of this paper is to derive Kwangwon interregional input-output model from the national model using the regional supply proportion of industry and to estimate economic impacts of investment activities for the successful Winter Olympic Games on Kangwon province. The central and local governments are expected to invest about 36.3 trillion won for the construction activities on the Olympic stadium, facilities, and tourism infrastructure into Kwangwon province. The empirical results are summarized as the followings. First, the multiplier effect and the spillover effect have been estimated to be about 58.1trillion won and 56.8trillion won respectively. And the feedback effect, OPE(Overall Percentage Error) proved to be very small 0.112% far less than 1% with the ceiling OPE being 0.298%. Second, industrial import coefficients were shown to be very large so that the spillover effect was estimated to be large. Lastly, the local tax effect was estimated to be about 43 billion won that led to elevating annually the financial self-sufficiency by 23.4,% points. It may conclude that the financial self-sufficiency in Kangwon province would be close to the national average level.

본 연구는 2007년 한국은행이 발표한 6개 권역간 지역 산업연관표를 이용하여 2008년 하반기 우리나라 공공요금 인상이 물가에 미치는 파급효과를 분석하였다. 본 연구결과를 요약하면 다음과 같다. 첫째, 우리나라 지역간 실측 산업연관표를 행렬식으로 표현한 후 이를 이용하여 공공요금인상의 6개권역간 물가파급효과를 이론 모형을 설정하여 분석하였으며, 이를 실증분석에 적용하였다. 둘째, 이론모형에서 공공요금이 지역간 동일하게 인상되더라도 지역간 교역에 의해 중간재로 투입되는 중간재의 투입계수 차이와 지역간 외생변수의 가격차이에 따라 지역물가 상승에 차이가 있을 수 있음을 밝혔고, 지역 간 물가상승 격차를 실증분석하였다. 셋째, 실증분석결과 이론분석 결과와 같이 공공요금 인상은 지역간 투입계수의 차이로 지역간 격차가 발생하였으며 이를 변이계수로 측정해 본 결과 전력요금인상 44.67, 가스요금인상 159.43, 난방요금인상 83.97로 나타나 가스요금인상에 따른 지역간 물가상승 격차가 상대적으로 큰 것으로 나타났다.

This study uses interregional input-output table that the Bank of Korea publishes in 2007 and latter half of the year our country public utility charges rise analyzed ripple effect on prices of commodities. Price hike analyzed that regional disparity can happen and proved this in actual proof analysis analyzing establishing theory model about interreggional prices of commodities ripple effect of public utility charges rise using this after express Korea's interregional input-output table by matrix formula. Actual proof analysis made price ripple coefficient table, price ripple analysis table etc.. basing on theory model, and was showed that actual proof analysis wave and public utility charges rise raise most greatly price of 10.first metal manufacturing industry of capital region area, and was expose that raise 04. a Fibers, a Skin manufacturing industry of Kang-won regional area, price of leather manufacturing industry lowest relatively.