Earticle

수출함수에 대한 실증분석은 경제정책적 측면에서 커다란 중요성을 갖고 있다. 수출 결정요인이 실증적으로 추정되면, 그 결과는 많은 정책적 함의를 갖게 되기 때문이다. 따라서 산업 각 분야에서 수출함수가 널리 활용되고 있다. 그러나 방위산업의 경우 통계자료의 부족과 산업의 특수성을 이유로 수출에 대한 실증분석이 이루어지지 않았다. 따라서 방산수출에 대한 대부분의 연구가 정성적으로 이루어졌으며, 이는 정책적 설득력에 대한 결핍을 낳았다. 따라서 본 연구를 통하여 방산 수출함수를 도출하고 정량적인 정책적 함의를 도출하고자 한다. 본 논문은 방산수출 강국 6개국을 대상으로 수출함수를 도출하여 이를 비교·분석한다. 수출함수 도출에는 일반적인 수출함수 모델과 ARIMA 모형을 활용하며, 각 국가의 수출함수 비교를 통하여 한국 방산수출 진흥방안을 논의한다.

The empirical analysis of the export function is of great importance in terms of economic policy. If export determinants are empirically estimated, the result has many policy implications. Therefore, export functions are widely used in various industries. However, in the defense industry, empirical analysis of exports was not carried out due to the lack of statistical data and the specificity of the industry. Thus, most of the research on defense exports has been done qualitatively, which leads to a lack of policy persuasion. Therefore, this study seeks to obtain the defense export function and to derive quantitative policy implications. This paper derives and compares and analyzes export functions for six representative defense export countries. Gravity model and ARIMA model are used to derive export function, and Korea’s defense export promotion plan is discussed by comparing export function of each country.

This paper tests the effects of government subsidies on the volume and price of export. With the launching of WTO, government support are strongly forbidden. Therefore, any policy designed for export promotion must be examined for policy effects before it is implemented. The current research used the export function(author, 19) as a research model. We found that government export subsidy did not show powerful effects on export price and volume. This findings suggest that government policies are designed to improve firms` competitive advantage not by price factor but by non-price factors.

In this paper we analyse the long-run and short-run relationship between Busan port’s export and its determinants, foreign income and exchange rate, using the techniques of cointegration and error correction, the rolling regression analysis, and impulse response function. This study employs the Ordinary Least Squares method to choose the most appropriate export demand function and finds that the model with broad nominal effective exchange rate is more suitable for explaining the Busan port’s export behaviors than the models with the other effective exchange rates or nominal exchange rate. The model is estimated using monthly data for the period 2000?2020. The cointegration technique finds a favorable evidence of a long-run relationship between export demand, foreign income and exchange rate for Busan port. The error correction model indicates a quick disequilibrium adjustment and the variance decomposition analysis shows that Busan port’s exports are endogenous to economic variables. The response of exports following a positive shock to foreign income increases onwards in a consistent manner, while a positive shock to the nominal effective exchange rate has a negative impact on exports over the forecast horizon.

The purpose of this study is to investigate whether a long-run relationship exists among time series variables and to find short-run elasticities by using an error correction model if cointegration exists in variables. Therefore, this study estimates the demand function of the Korean exports by using bounds testing approach and then compare income elasticity with price elasticity to see which factor has a greater impact on changes to Korea’s exports. We find that the short-run income elasticities are larger than price elasticities. This implies that the change of Korea’s exports in the short-run is more sensitive than the changes in foreign income (industrial production) compared with that of the price (exchange rate). Korea’s exports in the short-run may have a higher export performance on income than that of price (exchange rate). We also find that joining the OECD members in 1995 and the IT bubble in the world economy in 2001 affect Korea’s export demand.

본 연구의 목적은 공적분분석을 이용하여 부산지역의 수출함수를 추정하고 이를 바탕으로 부산지역의 수출에 영향을 미치는 요인을 분석함으로써 정책적 함의를 도출하는데 있다. 분석방법은 우선 부산지역의 수출함수의 이론 및 추정모형을 도출한다. 그런 다음 수출모형의 추정에 사용된 변수들이 실제로는 모두 비정상시계열로 판명되고 있기 때문에 불안정시계열을 다루는 시계열 분석방법인 단위근(unit root)검정 및 공적분(cointegration)검정방법을 사용하여 수출함수 추정에 의한 부산지역 수출의 장‧단기적 성격을 파악한다. 주요 실증분석결과는 다음과 같다. 미달러환율의 부산지역 수출에 대한 관계는 마이너스를 보였는데 이는 환율상승이 부산지역의 수출을 오히려 감소시키는 것을 의미한다. 이러한 원인은 부산지역의 수출공급탄력성이 1보다 적은 데에 기인한다. 한편 세계경기가 부산지역의 수출에 미치는 영향은 양의 부호를 보이는데 세계경기가 좋아지면 수요가 증가하여 부산지역의 수출도 증가하는 것을 의미한다. 오차수정모형에 의한 추정결과는 환율은 OLS의 경우와 같이 부의 결과를 세계경기는 부산지역의 수출에 대한 영향은 양의 결과를 보였으나 통계적 유의성을 크지 않았다. 이러한 결과로 미루어 볼 때 부산지역의 수출은 환율과 세계경기에 상대적으로 덜 영향을 받고 있는 것으로 보인다. 따라서 부산지역의 수출구조는 환율 및 세계경기의 변동에 덜 민감하기 때문에 이들 변수들에 의한 정책적 효과를 기대하기는 힘들다는 것을 알 수 있다.

The purpose of this study is to estimation Busan’s export function using cointegration analysis, to analyze the effect of exchange rate and world business on local export and to induce policy implication. The major emprical results of the study are as follows: The relation of dollar exchange rate of American to Busan’ export is minus and it means that the rising of exchange rate makes Busan’ export decreased, it is caused that supply elesticity of Busan’ export is less than unit. But the effect of world business on Busan’ export is a positive, and means that ascension of world business gives rise to incresing of Busan’ export. The result of estimation by error correction model says that the effect of exchange rate is negative and world business on export is a positive, but statistical significance did not large . And export was influenced by the former term’s export. Busan’ export is less influenced by exchange rate and world business than is by Busan’ export itself. We can infer that export structure of Busan is insenstive to the flucturation of exchange rate and world business, so it is difficult for us to expect to policy effect from exchange rate and world business

본 연구는 1989년 1월부터 2004년 10월까지의 월별 자료를 이용하여 충북 지역수출수요함수를 추정함으로써 지방화‧개방화와 함께 지역단위가 직접적인 대외경쟁에 노출됨에 따라 대외적인 경제변수인 실질적인 교역조건을 나타내는 해외소득과 환율의 변동성이 충북지역수출수요에 미치는 역할을 구명하고자 하였다. 실증분석을 위하여 변수의 단위근 여부는 ERS(Elliot, Rothenberg, and Stock Point Optimal, 1996) 검정과 NP(Ng and Perron, 2001)검정을 사용하였으며, 공적분 검정은 Johansen의 FIML(Full Information Maximum Likelihood)방법을 이용하였다. 실증분석 결과 충북 수출수요함수에서 해외소득의 대리변수인 OECD경기선행지수는 수출에(+)의 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타나 해외경기 상승에 따른 해외 소득증가는 수출을 증가시키는 것으로 났다. 그러나 환위험을 나타내는 실질실효환율 변동성은 음(-)의 값을 나타내어, 환위험이 수출에 음(-)의 영향을 미치는 것으로 밝혀졌다.

The purpose of this study is to analyze the effect of exchange risk and world business on Chungbuk' Export and to induce policy implication. In this study, the ERS(Elliot, Rothenberg, and Stock Point Optimal, 1996) test and NP(Ng and Perron, 2001) test have been used in order to judge stability of variables and FIML(Full Information Maximum Likelihood) methodology by Johansen to determine if they have a cointegraion relation. The major empirical results of the study are as follows: The effect of world business on Chungbuk' export is a positive, and means that ascension of world business gives rise to increasing of Cungbuk' export. But the relation of exchange risk to Chungbuk' is minus and it means that the rising of exchange risk makes Chungbuk' export decreased.

The paper analyzes the relationship between rice exports and economic growth for the world's top four exporting countries (Thailand, Vietnam, India, and U.S.). The main objective of this paper is to determine to what extent economic growth impacts the countries’ rice export. The three stage least squares method is used to estimate the simultaneous relationship between the rice export and the economic growth. Results show that the elasticity of rice export price on export volume is shown be inelastic, and economic growth of major rice exporting countries have contribute to increase of rice export volume.

This article studies the factors which affect utilization of the trade insurance of small and medium size companies at Busan in Korea by AHP. As the factors of the utilization of the trade insurance, We categorize the function of the trade insurance and the management of the Korea trade insurance corporation. As the result of this study, We find that the function of the trade insurance, such as exchange rate risk management, providing inquiry and information, the financial function of the trade insurance is the most important. Thus, It is necessary that the function of trade insurance should be reorganized properly for small and medium size companies. This article will be expected to offer the practical information which helps establishing strategies to government and exporting manufacture companies.