Earticle

본 논문은 해외직접투자가 국내 제조업 부문의 산업내무역에 미치는 영향을 기업단위 해외직접투자와 산업단위 산업내무역을 결합한 자료를 사용해 분석한다. 2001년에서 2009년까지 미국과 중국에 대한 한국 다국적기업의 해외현지법인 매출 현황과 제조업 중(소)분류 24개(66개) 업종의 산업내무역을 나타내는 통합자료를 구축해 시스템 일반화 적률법으로 패널회귀분석한 결과, 산업내 기업의 이질성, 산업단위의 지적자본요소부존도, 시장규모, 교역비용 등의 영향을 모두 고려한 후에도 제조업 중분류 수준에서 한국 다국적기업의 해외직접투자가 2004년에서 2009년 사이 산업내무역 증가의 약 33%를 설명한 것으로 나타났다. 또한해외직접투자는 1년 정도의 시차를 두고 2년 안에 제조업 부문 산업내무역에 긍정적 파급효과를 가져오는 것으로 나타났다. 특히 전기․전자․자동차 산업에서해외직접투자는 산업내무역 증가분의 평균 26.5%를 설명하였으며 1년 안에 긍정적 파급효과를 가져오는 것으로 나타났다.

This paper empirically investigates how Korean multinational enterprises’outward FDI influences intra-industry trade(IIT) at the various Korean Standard Industrial Classification(KSIC) levels. Using panel data covering FDI to US and China between 2001 and 2009, this paper finds a positive and significant relationship between IIT and FDI at the KSIC middle level, even after controlling for intra-industry firm heterogeneity, factor and skill endowments, and home and host country trade costs. In particular, outward FDI accounts for 33% of IIT in manufacturing between 2004 and 2009. It is stronger at the electrical, electronics and motor vehicles than at the other manufacturing sectors.

본 연구는 전력소비량과 경제성장 사이의 동태적 인과관계를 16개 행정구역(시도)별 전력판매량과 지역내총생산의 연간자료로 구성된 지역패널자료를 이용하여 분석하였다. 패널 단위근 검정과 패널 공적분 검정을 수행한 결과, 패널 VAR 모형이 적절하다고 판단되어 이 모형을 추정하고 그 결과를 분석하였다. 주요 실증분석의 결과는 다음과 같다. 첫째, 전력소비와 경제성장 사이에는 장기균형관계가 존재하지 않는 것으로 나타났다. 둘째, 단기적으로 경제성장은 전력소비에 영향을 미치지 못하지만 전력소비는 경제성장을 선도하는 것으로 나타났다. 셋째, 대도시의 전력소비는 단기적 경기변동의 영향을 받지만 도지역에서는 그런 영향이 나타나지 않았다. 또 전력소비가 단기적으로 경제성장을 선도하는 효과는 대도시에서는 나타나지만 도지역에서는 나타나지 않았다.

This study aims to investigate the relationships between electricity consumption and economic growth in Korea. The study uses the regional panel data of electricity sales volume and GRDP in seven metropolitan cities and nine provinces. The study performs panel unit root test and panel cointegration test, and estimates panel vector autoregression (PVAR) model. The empirical results can be summarized as follows. First, there is no long-term relationships between the electric power consumption and the economic growth. Secondly, although the economic growth does not affect the power consumption in the short-term, the power consumption has led to the economic growth. Third, the power consumption in the large cities affects the short-term economic fluctuations, but not in the provinces.

This paper empirically examines the effects of R&D investment on productivity using dynamic panel data (DPD) model for Korea's listed and non-listed manufacturing companies over the period from 2000 to 2007. In estimating the DPD model, it controls for simultaneity and inconsistency caused by distributional problems of R&D spending by employing two stage Tobit-GMM method. Empirical results suggest that for all firms, either in high-tech or low-tech industry, R&D expenditure is positively associated with enhancement of productivity but R&D investment has a larger effect on labor productivity in high-tech firms than in low-tech firms. This implies that government R&D subsidy would have a stronger effect on productivity for high-tech firms,especially small and medium sized firms, rather than for low-tech firms.

This study attempts to reveal the negative effects of customer complaints on a firm’s financial performance and, by using empirical analysis, to find out whether a firm’s Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) activities can reduce the negative impacts of those complaints. For this purpose, we collected panel data on 49 companies in the financial industries. Records of consumers' complaints to financial firms were used as a measure for customer complaints, and the amount of donations in the firm’s individual profit and loss statement was used as a measure for the firm’s CSR activities. For the firm’s performance, we used the Return on Assets (ROA). Using these panel data, we conducted a dynamic panel model analysis to reflect the unique characteristics of the firm in the model. We found that customer complaints do act negatively on a firm’s performance, but we also confirmed that a firm with bigger invests in CSR activities, the less adversely customer complaints affect the firm’s performance.

We investigate the dynamic impact of institutions on economic growth using a panel dataset of 77 countries, divided into MICs and HICs for the period 2000-2020. We critically examine the available institutional indices and construct three weighted indices from 20 indicators closely related to the meaning of the term ‘institutions’ as the ‘rules of the game’ defined by Douglas North. Next, we use the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) to show that institutions significantly influence economic growth through investment and trade more than the total factor productivity channel. While the quality of the legal system and property rights and regulatory quality all positively and significantly influence output per capita, output gains from each unit of improvement in the quality of legal systems and protection of private property rights are comparatively higher than gains from a unit of improvement in the regulatory environment. An average MIC gains relatively more from improving its quality of legal system and property rights, whereas an average HIC benefits relatively more from each unit of improvement in its regulatory environment. The results from the Granger non-causality test demonstrate and unidirectional causality from institutions to economic growth in MICs but no significant causal relationship between institutions and economic growth in HICs

This study investigates the patterns and determinants of Korea’s horizontal intra-industry trade by employing a dynamic panel data analysis. The main findings of the study are as follows. An increase in the market size of both trading partners is associated with a higher level of horizontal intra-industry trade. Dissimilar economic sizes and per capita incomes have a negative effect on trade in horizontally differentiated products. Geographical distance and trade imbalance serve as obstacles to horizontal intra-industry trade. These findings have policy implications for reconsidering the orientation of promoting trade. Inclusive economic growth in the region, taking advantage of neighboring nations and making efforts to reduce trade imbalances between trading economies, can accelerate further trade expansion through horizontal intra-industry trade.

This paper empirically examines the Friedman hypothesis on political, civil and economic freedom that, a country can have a high degree of civil freedom, and a high degree of economic freedom without any political freedom, but can not have any political freedom if it does not have some degree of civil and economic freedom. Using panel data of five SAARC countries over the period 1995-2011, the dynamic panel data econometric techniques and Granger-causality tests validated the Friedman hypothesis regarding economic and political freedom, but regarding civil and political freedom the reverse is found true. The estimates of the empirical model using UECM show that economic freedom has significant short-run and long-run effects in improving the political freedom in the SAARC region.

This paper aims to empirically analyze the effects of political uncertainty on local governments’ fixed-asset investment in China and determine whether there exist variations across the country’s three different regions. For that purpose, we construct a panel data set for 283 prefectures in the country, covering the period of 2003 - 2016. The effects of replacement of prefecture-level party secretaries are estimated using the methods of both fixed effects and system GMM analyses while party committee secretaries’ individual characteristics and prefecture-specific socioeconomic conditions are controlled for. The results of the analyses indicate that changes in local government leadership adversely affects local governments’ fixed-asset investment, and such effects are greatest in the Western region, followed by the Middle and the Eastern regions.

This paper uses the spatial autoregression model (SAR) to explore the effect of foreign direct investment（FDI on haze (PM2.5) air pollution in 241 cities in China employing data published by the Socio-Economic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC) of Columbia University's Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN) Our analysis reveals an inverted U-shaped environmental kuznets curve (EKC) relationship between haze (PM2.5) pollution and China's economic growth. The appearance of China's haze (PM2.5) pollution has a time lag, and we also observed a "superposition effect" in the time dimension, as well as a spatial spillover effect. In short, the inflow of FDI has aggravated haze (PM2.5) in China, providing further evidence for the “pollution haven hypothesis (PHH)" hypothesis as it applies to China.

This paper applies the technology-gap trade theory to explaining radical changes in the competitive positions of countries in world machine tool markets over the last three decades. It develops the notion that the innovation gaps in machine tools among countries led to the inter-country differences in the competitive performance in the sector as well as in its user sectors. Since competitive advantage largely depends on a capability to improve, create and apply technology to market competition, a higher innovative performance in one country than another is closely related to a higher innovative performance. A higher innovative performance in machine tools is also associated with a higher competitive performance of the large areas of its user sectors, due to sectoral interdependences and externalities generated by machine tool innovations. The results of empirical investigation through a panel data analysis show that the international gaps in machine tool innovations appeared to have a positive significant relationship with the differences in the export performance of both the machine tool sector and its user sector across countries.

Background: This study aimed to identify factors influencing life satisfaction with a focus on met or unmet care needs for living in older adults with disabilities. Methods: This study analyzed the data of 2,220 disabled older people, using the fourth wave of the Disability Life Dynamic Panel Survey from the Korea Disables people’s Development Institute. We used descriptive statistics, t-tests, ANOVA, Pearson’s correlation coefficient, and multiple regression for our analyses. Results: Social factors, employment status, and levels of depression influenced the life satisfaction of disabled older adults. Various social factors, including meeting social/leisure activity care need, having a higher number of close people, more frequent meetings with them, and engaging in social activities, significantly influenced better life satisfaction. This regression model explained 26% of the variance in life satisfaction.Conclusions: This study highlights the influence of social factors, particularly the addressed social participation care needs, on the life satisfaction of older people with disabilities. Therefore, enhancing social networks and community-based programs is essential to help individuals sustain their social connections. Additionally, providing care to those who face challenges in participating will enable their ongoing engagement in social activities.

본 논문에서는 위협변수를 고려하여 국방비와 경제성장의 관계를 여러 실증분석 방법을 통해 연구하였다. 그 결과 전기 위협은 직접적으로는 경제성장에 부정적인 영향을 미치나, 국가적 위협이 높을 때의 국방비 지출은 경제성장에 긍정적 인 영향을 주는 것을 확인하였다. 특히 연도별 데이터와 4년 데이터 분석에서같은 결과가 도출되어, 단기적뿐만 아니라 장기적으로도 국가적 위협이 높을 때의 국방비 지출 증가는 경제성장에 긍정적인 영향을 주는 것을 확인할 수 있다.

This paper examines the impact of military expenditure on economic growth considering external threat variable. There are a lot of literatures on the relationship between economic growth and military expenditure, but its findings are often contradictory and inconclusive. External threat is an important variable in the relationship between military expenditure and economic growth. The literature about relationship between military expenditure and economic growth without external threat variable can have omitted variable bias. Using Fixed effect, SYSTEM-GMM, Bias Corrected LSDV estimators, we examine the growth effects of military expenditure, country threats in unbalanced panel of 82 countries during 1984-2003. We find that higher country threat variable separately lead to lower economic growth, but higher military expenditure is less detrimental to growth when a country threat variable is high.

[연구목적]본 연구에서는 자산의 장부가치 대비 시장가치 비율을 성장옵션의 대용변수로 사용하여 성장옵션이 자본구조에 미치는 영향을 동적 패널자료 분석방법으로 실증분석하고 실무적 시사점을 제공하고자 하였다. [연구방법]본 연구는 자본구조와 성장옵션에 대한 관련 이론들, 기존에 수행되었던 연구들과 논의를 충분히 검토하고 완만한 비선형의 자본구조 조정행태까지 통제하기 위해 종속변수의 2차 시차까지 포함한 동적 패널자료모형을 수립하고 GMM으로 추정하였다. [연구결과]성장옵션과 자본구조에 부(－)의 관계가 존재하며, 표본을 성장옵션의 크기에 따라 분할하여 분석한 결과 성장옵션이 중간 정도인 기업에서 부채비율이 가장 크게 감소하는 것으로 나타났다. 또한 성장옵션이 자본구조에 미치는 영향은 기업의 부채수용력에 의해서 달라짐을 발견하였다. [연구의 시사점]기업은 자본시장과 연동하여 투자기회를 최적으로 활용하려는 시장지향성을 가지고 있으며, 성장옵션이 빈약한 기업에서는 부채의 통제효과가 강화될 수 있으나 주주권의 유명무실을 초래하고 시장규제를 약화시킬 수 있으므로 이해상충을 최소화하려는 유연한 재무정책이 요구된다는 시사점을 제공한다.

[Purpose]In this study, we used the market value and book value ratio of assets as proxy variables for growth option to empirically analyze the impact of growth option on capital structure using dynamic panel data analysis and provide practical implications. [Methodology]This study thoroughly reviews related theories on capital structure and growth option and uses a dynamic panel data model that includes the second lag of the dependent variable to control even mild non－linear capital structure adjustment behavior. The model is estimated using GMM. [Findings]There is a negative relationship between growth option and capital structure. As a result of analyzing the sample by dividing it according to the size of growth option, it was found that the debt ratio decreased the most in companies with medium growth option. Additionally, it was found that the impact of growth option on capital structure varies depending on the company’s debt capacity. [Implications]Companies have a market orientation that seeks to optimally utilize investment opportunities in connection with the capital market. Although the control effect of debt may be strengthened in companies with poor growth option, it can lead to loss of shareholder rights and weaken market regulations. It provides implications that flexible financial policies that seek to minimize conflicts are required.

본 연구는 소유집중도(ownership concentration)가 이익조정 행태에 미치는 영향에 대해 검토한다. 구체적으로, 지배주주 이익의 극대화가 만연한 우리나라의 경영환경 속에서 소유권이 집중된 기업일수록 발생액 및 실물활동을 통한 이익조정에 보다 적극적으로 관여하는 경향이 있는지를 검증한다. 소유구조와 이익조정의 관련성은 많은 국내외 선행연구에서 다루어 온 분야이지만, 기존 연구에서는 단일 이익조정 측정치에 의존하고, 합동 데이터(pooled data)를 이용한 회귀분석에 주로 의존하여 왔다. 그러나 대부분의 선행연구에서는 모형설정 오류, 제한된 데이터 및 분석방법, 내생성 통제의 실패 등으로부터 자유롭지 못해 연구결과를 일반화하는 데 한계점을 지녀 왔다. 본 연구에서는, 횡단면 또는 시계열 데이터에 비해 더 많은 정보와 변수의 확장된 변동성을 확보할 수 있어 결과적으로 통계적 효율성이 제고된 추정량을 얻을 수 있는 패널데이터를 이용하여 기업의 소유집중도와 이익조정의 관계를 재검증한다. 본 연구는 2000년부터 2010년까지 11년간 268개 기업의 패널데이터를 이용하여 정적(static) 및 동적(dynamic) 분석을 수행하였으며 주된 연구결과를 요약하면 다음과 같다. 첫째, 소유집중도가 이익조정행위에 미치는 영향은 크지 않은 것으로 나타났다. 지분의 집중도와 일부 이익조정측정치 사이에 유의적인 양(+)의 관련성이 관찰되었으나 이러한 결과가 일관된 것은 아니었다. 즉 지분이 집중되어 있는 소유자 기업들이 이익을 침해하는 경향이 있다고 해석하기에 충분한 실증적 증거는 관찰되지 않았다. 특히 잠재적 이분산과 내생성을 통제하는 계량분석 기법을 적용할 경우 소유집중도와 이익조정 간의 통계적 관련성은 현저히 저하되는 경향이 있었다. 또한, 외국인 투자자와 기관투자자의 지분율이 이익조정에 미치는 영향 역시 크지 않은 것으로 나타났다. 이러한 결과는 여러 선행연구의 결과와는 일치하지 않으며 기업의 지배구조와 이익조정의 실증적 관련성을 검증함에 있어서는 내생성의 통제가 중요함에도 불구하고 선행연구에서 이를 간과했을 가능성을 시사한다. 그룹총수와 그 친인척을 중심에 두는 지배구조가 보편화된 우리나라의 기업 환경에서 지배주주와 소액주주 사이의 이해상충을 반영하는 이익조정의 수준이 실제로 경영자의 소유집중도와 어떤 관련성을 갖는지를 검토하는 것은 기업의 지배구조와 관련된 규제당국의 정책수립에 시사점을 제공할 수 있고 국내 기업의 지배구조 개선을 위한 방향 모색에도 도움을 줄 것으로 기대된다. 투자자를 비롯한 다양한 이해관계자들이 소유집중도의 의미를 정확하게 이해할 수 있는 기회를 제공할 것으로도 기대된다. 또한 본 연구의 결과를 통하여 동일한 표본자료에 대해 계량적 분석기법을 달리 적용함에 따라 검정결과가 달라질 수 있음을 보임으로써 특히 내생성 문제를 비롯한 연구방법론 상의 잡음요인을 지닌 기업지배구조 관련문헌에 대해서도 검정력이 향상된 분석방법을 차용하여 결과의 강건성을 확보하는 것이 연구의 내적, 외적 타당성 확보를 위하여 중요할 수 있음을 환기하는 효과도 기대할 수 있다.

This study examines whether a firm's corporate governance practices have an effect on the quality of its publicly released financial information. In particular, we examine the relationship between ownership concentration and the extent of corporate earnings management as measured by abnormal accruals and real earnings management activities. There is a long-standing debate on the effect of ownership concentration on earnings management in existing archival research. Our study has a distinctive feature since the Korean ownership structure is characterized by the dominance of one largest shareholder and his/her family members who generally participate in the management of the firm. The largest shareholders and specially related persons are highly likely to influence most of important corporate decisions whether directly or indirectly and thus ownership may be indifferent from management. Our study examines two conflicting hypotheses based on two conflicting theories: 1) the convergence of interest hypothesis (based on stewardship theory) and 2) the expropriation of minority shareholders hypothesis (based on agency theory). Agency theory suggests that the interests of opportunistic, self-interested agents conflict with those of principals whereas stewardship theory suggests instead that agents' interests will be aligned with firm interests and thus be more intrinsically motivated than predicted by agency theory. Since ownership is not generally separated from management in South Korea, we focus on agency relationships between controlling shareholders and minority shareholders rather than those between ownership and management. Under the convergence of interest hypothesis, agency costs between controlling shareholders and minority shareholders should be reduced which in turn reduce controlling shareholders' opportunistic behavior. On the other hand, the expropriation of minority shareholders hypothesis suggests that controlling shareholders may infringe on minority shareholders' right in their favor, by influencing managers to engage in earnings management. Although many of previous studies attempted to find true relationship between ownership concentration and earnings management considering two conflicting hypotheses, the results are still inconclusive. Empirical corporate accounting research, which attempts to explain the causes and effects of financial decision, often has serious issues with endogeneity. This is because it is generally difficult to find exogenous factors or natural experiments with which to identify the relations being examined. Despite previous literatures have reported mixed results, many of these papers suffer from model mis-specification, limited data and failure to control for endogeneity issues since their results are based on the normal OLS regression using pooled data which often ignores potential heterogeneity originating from unobservable factors. Noticeable gap in the literature is the inability of authors to control for firm heterogeneity, dynamic effects and also other factors such as firm characteristics. In this paper, we examine static and dynamic panel data analysis of the effect of ownership concentration on earnings management, econometrically considering possible endogeneity issues caused by unobservable heterogeneity. To address the relation between ownership concentration and earnings management, we borrow from an extensive previous literature to justify that our main variables are plausible proxies for earnings management. We specifically partition earnings management into two aspects: accrual based earnings management and real earnings management. We further use two measures of abnormal accruals; 1) the modified Jones model suggested by Dechow et al.(1995) and 2) the performance-adjusted modified Jones model suggested by Kothari et al.(2005) and real activities manipulation measure suggested by Roychowdhury(2006). Meanwhile, the percentage of ownership allocated to the largest sh...

본 연구는 소유집중도(Ownership concentration)가 기업의 다양한 성과에 미치는 영향에 대해 검토한다. 구체적으로, 지배주주 이익의 극대화가 중점인 우리나라의 특이구조 상황에서 소유권이 집중된 기업들이 시장에 대한 성과, 경영에 대한 성과, 주주에 대한 성과에서 차별적 우수성을 나타내는지를 검증한다. 소유구조와 기업성과는 많은 국내외 선행연구에서 다루어 온 분야이지만, 현재까지 단일 기업 성과치에 의존하고, 합동 데이터(Pooled data)를 이용한 회귀분석에 근거한 연구가 주를 이루어왔다. 하지만, 많은 선행연구들은 모형설정 오류, 제한된 데이터 및 분석방법, 내생성 통제의 실패 등으로 인해 연구결과의 일반화에 한계점을 보여 왔다. 이에 본 연구에서는, 횡단면 또는 시계열 데이터에 비해 더 많은 정보와 변수의 변동성을 제공하고, 결과적으로 효율적인 추정량을 얻을 수 있는 패널데이터를 이용하여 기업의 소유집중도가 기업성과에 미치는 영향에 대해 검증한다. 본 연구는 2000년부터 2010년까지 11년간 268개 기업의 패널데이터를 이용하여 정적(static) 및 동적(dynamic) 분석을 수행하였고, 그 연구결과를 요약하면 다음과 같다. 첫째, 소유집중도는 시장에 대한 기업성과에 유의적인 음(-)의 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났다. 이는 이익침해가설을 주장하는 다수의 선행연구와 일관성을 가지며, 지분이 증가할수록 지배주주가 사적이익을 도모함으로써 기업가치가 감소할 수 있는 가능성을 시사한다. 하지만, 강력한 유의수준은 관찰되지 않았다. 둘째, 소유집중도는 경영과 주주에 대한 성과와 유의한 관련성을 가지지 않는 것으로 나타났다. 이는 Demsetz 와 Lehn(1985)이 주장한 무영향 가설을 지지하는 결과이다. 이들은 기업의 소유구조가 경영성과를 결정하는 원인변수가 아니라, 경영성과를 극대화하기 위한 수단이 되는 종속변수라 주장한 바 있다. 이를 통제하기 위해 기업의 과거성과를 도구변수로 포함한 동적모형에서도 일관적인 결과가 관찰되었다. 마지막으로, 외국인 투자자와 기관투자자의 지분율이 기업성과에 미치는 영향은 크지 않은 것으로 나타났다. 총수와 그 일가 중심의 구조를 지닌 특이한 우리나라 기업 환경에서 소유가 집중된 기업이 다양한 기업성과와 어떠한 관련성이 있는지를 살펴보는 것은, 규제당국의 효과적인 정책 입안과 한국지배구조원의 기준 설정에 도움을 줄 것으로 기대된다. 또한 학계에도 상이한 분석에 따라 달라지는 결과 비교를 제공하여, 실제 지분집중도와 기업성과의 관련성을 명확하게 하는 공헌을 할 것으로 기대된다.

There is a long-standing debate on the effect of ownership concentration on firm performance. Despite previous literatures have reported mixed results, many of these papers suffer from model misspecification, limited data and failing to control for endogeneity issues. Noticeable gap in the literature is the inability of authors to control for firm heterogeneity and dynamic effects. In this paper, we examine static and dynamic panel data analysis of the effect of ownership concentration on firm performance. Specifically we departmentalize firm performance into three different aspects: firm performance on market, operation, and shareholder. We examine the relation between ownership concentration and firm performance using random effect, fixed effect and the dynamic effect method in a panel of 2984 firm-year over a period from 2000 to 2010. We also provide results from pooled OLS and between model for comparison purposes. We found that ownership concentration is not significantly associated with performance on operation and on shareholder after controlling for possible heterogeneity and simultaneity. However, performance on market was found marginally significantly negative which support expropriation of minority shareholder hypothesis. We illustrate why other commonly used estimators that ignore the endogeneity issues and dynamic relationship between ownership concentration and past firm performance might be biased. The environment where ownership is highly concentrated on average is distinctive feature of the South Korea capital market situation. We expect to provide valuable insight into true association between ownership concentration and firm performance through a well-developed panel data analysis.

본 연구는 청소년 게임 이용자 패널 데이터를 활용하여 게임 이용이 정신건강과 학업성적에 미치는 영향을 검증했다. 먼저 정신건강 관련, 게임을 많이 이용할수록 우울감과 공격성이 줄어들었고, 그럴수록 다시 게임 이용은 증가하는 상호적 강화작용 패턴을 발견했다. 불안의 경우, 게임 이용이 불안을 낮추는 일방향적 효과만이 존재했고 게임 이용과 고독감은 유의한 관계를 보이지 않았다. 이러한 결과는 선호 게임 유형(혼자 vs. 게임에서 만난 사람들과 함께 vs. 오프라인 친구들과 함께 하는 게임)이나 대인관계 특성(부모와의 의사소통, 교사 지지, 친구 지지)에 따라 달라지지 않았다. 다음으로 게임 이용은 학업성적에 긍정적 영향을 미쳤지만, 성적은 게임 이용에 영향을 주지 않았다. 게임 이용이 성적에 미치는 효과는 공부시간이나 정신건강 변인들에 의해 매개되지 않았다. 추가분석 결과, 데이터 분석방법에 따라(종단분석 vs. 횡단분석) 게임 효과에 대한 상반된 결론이 도출됨을 확인했다. 구체적으로 횡단분석 결과가 게임에 대한 대중적 우려와 대체로 일치했는데, 이는 방법론적으로 더욱 엄정한 게임 효과 연구가 필요함을 시사한다.

This study tested how video game play affects adolescents’ mental health and academic performance using data from a longitudinal survey of Korean youths. Results revealed cross-lagged effects of playing video games on depression and aggression. Playing video games reduced anxiety, whereas anxiety was not predictive of video game play. There was no lagged relationship between video game play and loneliness. Neither the preferred type of video game play (playing alone vs. together with in-game friends or strangers vs. with offline friends) nor the quality of interpersonal relationships (parent-child communication, social support from teachers and friends) moderated the effects of video game play on mental health outcomes. Playing video games had a positive lagged effect on academic performance, but school performance did not predict video game use. This effect was not mediated by the amount of time spent studying or mental health variables. Lastly, different statistical approaches (cross-sectional vs. longitudinal analyses) yielded different, even opposite, results. Cross-sectional analyses tended to echo widely shared concerns about the harmful effects of video games, calling for greater methodological rigor in drawing causal inferences.

This paper empirically investigates determinants of inbound tourism demand for Korea using a dynamic panel data model. The empirical analysis uses the panel data set for the 34 countries over the period 1995-2009, estimating the dynamic panel model by the Generalized Method of Moment to control for the endogeneity of the lagged dependent variable. The endogeneity bias could be caused by the OLS estimation of the model which includes the lagged dependent variable as a regressor. Empirical results are as follows. First, the estimated coefficients of the lagged dependent variable are found to be statistically significant, which may reflect a high degree of consumer loyalty or an important effect of 'word of mouth' in determining international tourism demand for Korea. Second, empirical results show that the estimated coefficient of income elasticity of tourism demand to Korea should be positively significant, supporting the results of the previous studies. Third, the cost of tourism to Korea turns out to be statistically significant and thus an important factor in determining tourism demand. Finally, In contrast to theory prediction that foreign exchange rate can have positive effects on tourism demand, however, there is no robust evidence that nominal exchange rate should lead to an increase in tourism demand.

이 논문은 한국의 외환위기 이후 2000년-2005년 기간 동안 기업의 패널자료를 활용하여 수출과 생산, 그리고 생산성간의 인과성을 실증적으로 분석하였다. 또한 이 논문은 수출의 내생성 문제를 완화하기 위해 도구변수 방법과 system GMM을 활용하였다. 실증결과, 대부분의 국가에서처럼 한국의 수출업체도 非수출업체에 비해 생산규모가 크고 생산성이 높게 나타났다. 그러나 생산함수와 생산성 분석모형의 추정결과에서 이러한 생산성의 차이가 수출에 의한 것이라는 분명한 증거를 찾지 못하였다. 오히려 대부분의 모형에서 공통적으로 한국 제조업체의 수출 확대가 생산 확대를 가져오지 못하며 생산성 향상에도 기여하지 못하는 것으로 나타났다. 이 결과는 수출의 학습효과 가설보다는 자기선택적 가설이 지지되고 있음을 의미한다. 이는 수출 주도형 무역정책으로 인한 수출의 학습효과가 생산 증대를 유발하거나 생산성을 효과적으로 제고시키지 못하고 있음을 시사한다.

This paper empirically examines the effects of exporting on labor productivity using Korean firm-level data over the period 2000-2005. This controls for simultaneity of exports in the dynamic panel data framework using the system GMM methodology. Empirical results show that Korea's exporting firms have larger size and higher productivity than non-exporting firms, but there is no robust evidence that expansion of exports should lead to an increase in production and labor productivity in the manufacturing industries. This result supports the self-selection of more productive firms in the export market, implying that the export-led-growth strategies might not work in Korea any more.

본고는 일본기업의 패널자료를 이용하여 환율이 기업의 설비투자에 미치는 효과를 분석하였다. 본고에서는 환율이 기업의 설비투자에 미치는 효과를 분석한 결과 첫 번째는 엔고가 수출비율이 높은 기업일수록 설비투자를 감소시키는 한편 수입비율이 높은 기업일수록 엔고가 설비투자를 증가시킨다. 두 번째는 엔고가 기업의 설비투자에 미치는 효과는 시장지배력이 약한 기업일수록 크고 자금제약에 직면해 있는 기업에서 크다는 것이 부분적으로 증명되었다. 시장지배력이 약한기업 또는 자금제약에 직면한 기업은 규모가 작은 기업에게 많다. 이러한 결과는 엔고가 설비투자에 미치는 영향은 규모가 작은 기업에게 크다는 것을 알 수 있다.세 번째는 추정결과를 보면 전업종에서 실질실효환율이 1% 상승함에 따라 실질설비투자가 0.23% 감소한다. 또한 수출비율이 높은 5가지 업종에서는 실질실효환율이 1% 상승함에 따라 실질설비투자가 0.45%∼0.95% 정도 감소한다. 한편 수입비율이 높은 석유, 석탄제품에서는 실질실효환율이 1% 엔고에 대해서 실질설비투자가 1.36% 증가한다는 것을 알 수 있다.

This study analyzes the effects of exchange rates on the capital investment of companies by using the panel data of Japanese companies. As a result of analyzing the effects of the exchange rate on capital investment in this study, First, it was found that the rise in the exchange rate of the yen had a greater effect of decreasing capital investment with respect companies with a higher export ratio. On the other hand, it was found that rise in the exchange rate of the yen had a greater effect of increasing capital investment with respect companies with a higher import ratio. Secondly, it was partly identified that the effects of the rise in the exchange rate of the yen on capital investment were greater with respect to companies that had lower market power and were directly faced with financial restraints. Thirdly, in looking at the estimate results, in industries with a high export ratio, the real capital investment decreased by about 0.45% to 0.95% when the real effective exchange rate of the yen increased 1%. On the other hand, with respect products with a high import ratio such as oil and coal products, the real capital investment increased by about 1.36% when the real effective exchange rate of the yen increased 1%.

* 본 연구는 Merton(1974)의 논의를 기초로, 시장 참여자들이 특정한 기업 정보가 주식 및 채권 가격에 미치는 영향을 고려하여 그 정보에 상이하게 반응할 유인이 존재하며, 이러한 시장 참여자들의 행태가 주식시장과 채권시장간의 정보의 선행성을 신용등급별로 차별화시킬 가능성을 제시하였다. 한국에서 발행된 회사채의 신용스프레드와 채권 발행 기업의 주가간의 관계를 Arrelano and Bond(1991)의 동태적 패널 추정법을 이용하여 실증 분석한 결과, 신용등급이 높은 기업의 경우에는 주식시장이 채권시장보다 선행적이나, 신용등급이 낮은 등급의 경우 주식시장의 선행성이 존재하지 않을 뿐 아니라 부분적으로는 채권시장이 선행적일 수 있음을 밝혔다. 그리고 신용등급이 높은 기업의 경우 주가가 기업이익의 변화에 반응하나, 신용등급이 낮은 기업의 경우에는 신용스프레드가 기업이익 변화에 반응함을 확인하여, 신용등급별 주식시장과 채권시장간의 선행성이 차별적으로 나타나는 현상이 시장 참여자의 기업정보에 대한 반응, 곧 정보 효율성의 차이에 기인할 수 있음을 제시하였다.

Based on Merton (1974)’s argument on asset pricing, this study suggests a possibility that investors in the bond and stock markets have an incentive to respond in a different way to some firm-specific information, noting its different effects on the stock and bond prices. It is also argued that such asymmetric behaviors in the stock and bond markets may generate a different lead-lag relationship between the prices of two markets. Applying the dynamic panel method in Arrelano and Bond(1991), our empirical analysis tries to confirm the above hypotheses through the data set for the stock prices and credit spreads of individual firms in Korea. Our results first show that the lead-lag relationship between the stock and bond markets depends on the credit ratings. In case of whole firms, while the empirical test shows the contemporaneous relationship between the stock and bond markets, it does not show the lead-lag relationship between two markets. However, the stock price leads the credit spread in the case of firms with high credit ratings. On the contrary, the stock price does not lead the credit spread in the case of firms with low credit ratings. Rather, the empirical test suggests that the credit spread may lead the stock price in case of low graded firms. This paper also examines how the responsiveness of stock and bond prices depends on the credit ratings of firms. According to the results, the stock prices of firms with high credit rating effectively respond to public earning news while the credit spreads do not. However, the credit spreads of low graded investible bonds effectively respond to public earning news while stock prices of firms with low grade do not respond to earning news. The empirical results imply that the traders’ behavioral difference, not their capabilities for gathering the information, may have influence on the difference of information efficiency between stock and bond markets. In stock market, the traders have the incentive to concentrate on the higher credit rated firms than lower rated firms. Therefore, under the same information, the stock market spreads the information more rapidly than the bond market. On the contrary, the traders will be more concerned with the lower rated firms in bond market. If so, the bond market will spread the information of lower rated firms more rapidly than the stock market. As a result, even if the stock market is more efficient than the bond market in general, the bond market may have more information efficiency in the case of lower rated firms. In conclusion, the traders’ behavior can make the difference between two markets in spreading the information and, as a result, lead to the difference of information efficiency.