Earticle

본 연구는 Covid-19가 전 세계로 급격하게 퍼지면서 한국을 포함한 APEC 국가의 무역효율성 에 미치는 영향을 분석하고, 이와 관련된 무역잠재력을 분석하고자 한다. 실증분석을 위해 2000-2020까지 한국을 포함한 APEC 국가의 패널데이터를 이용하였고, Frontier 4.1 통계 프로그램을 활용하여 분석하였다. 실증분석 결과를 살펴보면, Covid-19은 APEC 국가 간의 무역효율에 부정적인 영향을 준 것으 로 분석되었다. 경제규모 요인(GDP)이 한국의 수출증대에 긍정적 영향이 있었으나, 한국을 포 함한 APEC 국가 인구증가는 자국내 시장 확대 즉, 내수가 커짐으로서 수출에는 부정적인 영 향을 준 것으로 확인되었다. 또한, 금융자유도, 정부효율 및 자유무역협정은 무역효율을 높이 는 효과가 있는 것으로 확인되었다. 더불어, 무역잠재력 분석결과에 의하면 한국의 무역잠재력이 높은 국가는 중국, 일본, 미국, 홍콩, 대만 순으로 나타났다.

Purpose : This study analyzes the impact of the rapid spread of Covid-19 worldwide on the trade efficiency of APEC countries, including South Korea and trade potential calculation. Research design, data, methodology : This paper uses panel data of APEC countries including South Korea between 2000-2020 were taken into account and analyzed by frontier 4.1 statistical program. Results : According to the empirical results, Covid-19 has a negative impact on the trade efficiency among APEC countries. Although the economic scale factor (GDP) has had a positive impact on South Korea's export growth, the increase in the population of APEC countries, including South Korea, has expanded the domestic market. In other words, it is confirmed that the increase of domestic demand has a negative impact on exports. In addition, financial freedom, government efficiency and free trade agreements have improved trade efficiency. Conclusions : The results showed that the partner countries with South Korea with high trade potential are China, Japan, the United States, Hong Kong and Taiwan.

본 연구는 2000부터 2019까지 중국 및 APEC 국가 패널데이터를 사용하여 확률적 변경 중력모 형과 무역 비효율 모형을 통해 중국의 무역잠재력을 분석하였다. 또한, 시차 모형을 추가하여 무역효율의 시차 효과를 분석하고 이를 통해 중국과 APEC 국가 간 교역 확대 방안을 제시하 고자 한다. 실증분석 결과에 의하면 중국 및 APEC 국가의 무역 발전 형태는 불균형을 보인다. 먼저 확률 적 변경 중력모형 분석결과에 의하면 교역국의 경제성장이 높을수록 수출에 대한 긍정적인 영향을 미치며, 인구요인에서는 세계최대 인구를 가진 중국의 경우 내수가 상대적으로 큰 비 중을 차지하기 때문에 수출에 대한 부(-)의 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타냈다. 무역 비효율 모형 분석결과를 따라 인적자본 요인은 무역에 긍정적인 영향을 미친다. 또한, 통화자유도, 정부 효 율성 및 무역 자유 협정(FTA) 요인도 중대한 영향이 있는 것을 확인하였다. 더욱이 통화자유 도 및 정부 효율성 요인은 시차 변수로써 무역효율에 대한 정(+)의 영향이 있다. 무역잠재력 통계데이터에 의하면 중국과 큰 무역잠재력이 갖는 국가는 싱가포르, 칠레, 홍콩, 태국이고 반면에 대만, 베트남, 파푸아뉴기니, 러시아 낮은 무역잠재력이 갖고 있다.

Purpose : The purpose of this study is to analyze how to reduce trade barriers, improve the level of trade volume between the two countries, promote the economic development of the two countries and maintain a stable political situation. Research design, data, methodology : This paper uses the time varying stochastic gravity model and trade efficiency model to measure the trade efficiency based on China and APEC countries from 2000 to 2019. Results : According to the empirical results, GDP of China and trading countries have a positive impact on export promotion. The population of China and trading countries have a negative impact of export. Trade inefficiency factor has a great impact on trade. Among of them, Monetary freedom, Government effectiveness, efficiency free trade agreement are proved to have a more significant impact on the trade promotion, and these two factors are also influential on short-term and long-term time lag factors of trade efficiency. The trade potential between China and APEC countries is uneven. China has a higher trade efficiency than Singapore, Chile, Hong Kong, Thailand, while trade with Chinese Taipei, Viet Nam, Papua New, Russia is lower than others. Conclusions : It is necessary to develop high-potential national markets while maintaining trade deals with high-level trade agreement countries. Promoting exchanges and cooperation between the bordering countries by exerting a close relationship through the geographical advantage.

본 연구는 한국과 APEC 지역 국가 간 항공운송 무역 패턴을 분석하여 국제무역환경 변화 속에서 한국의 경쟁력과 정책적 시사점을 도출하는 데 있다. 분석방법은 패널데이터 분석을 실시하였으며, 37년간의 항공교역 자료를 활용하였다. 종속변수는 교역액과 교역량으로 구분하고, GDP, 1인당 GDP, FTA, 국가면적, 내륙국가, 국제공항 수를 독립변수로 설정하였다. 분석 결과 항공운송 교역액과 교역량 모두 한국과 상대국의 GDP에 비례하며, 한국의 1인당 GDP와 FTA, 국가면적에는 음(-)의 영향을 보였다. 반면 상대국의 1인당 GDP와 내륙국가 여부는 유의미한 결과를 나타내지 못했다. 본 연구는 APEC 국가에 대한 항공무역에서 경제 규모와 소득 수준의 상반된 영향, 국가면적의 제한적 역할을 통해 항공무역 정책 수립 및 항공 인프라 투자 설정에 시사점을 제공한다.

This study aims to analyze the air transportation trade patterns between Korea and APEC member countries and to derive implications for Korea's competitiveness and policy direction amid the changing global trade environment. A panel data analysis was conducted using 37 years of air trade data. The dependent variables are classified into trade amount and trade weight, while the independent variables include GDP, GDP per capita, FTA, area, landlocked, and international airports. The results show that both the value and volume of air trade are positively associated with the GDP of Korea and its partner countries, while Korea's per capita GDP, the presence of an FTA, and partner countries' national area exhibit negative effects. In contrast, partner countries' per capita GDP and landlocked status were not statistically significant. This study highlights the contrasting effects of economic size and income level, as well as the limited role of national land area, on air trade with APEC countries, providing implications for the formulation of air trade policies and the planning of aviation infrastructure investments.

This paper examines output disparities between the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation countries during the period 1990~2011. The results show that inter-country levels of output per capita diverged over the study period but there was a clear break in the trend around 1998. Applying the time-varying individual common factor model, we found that all countries could be grouped into three convergence clubs. Focusing on the time path of each country’s output level relative to that of a reference economy such as the United States of America and allowing for possible structural breaks, we found that more countries converged towards the USA during the sub-period 1999~2011. The findings also suggest that the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation could have played some role in diminishing the output inequality between its member countries after the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation reached its current extent in 1998. Likewise, the paper suggests a need to reduce the wide income gap among the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation countries to promote their economic integration.

We analyze a variety of digital trade agreements with a view to exploring a useful guidance to clarify and improve the agreements. After examining the key features of the agreements, we compare them in two aspects, market access and policy cooperation. While the market access issues include the cross-border transfer of information by electronic means, the location of computing facilities, no imposition of customs duties on electronic transmissions and the express shipments, the policy cooperation issues do cooperation on standard and conformity assessment for digital trade, FinTech cooperation, and competition policy cooperation. Next, after evaluating the digital trade agreements, we find the need for reasonable definitions of critical terms such as digital trade and digital service. Also we suggest how to clarify and improve the scope of digital product and their relationship with the relevant WTO agreements, primarily GATS. Finally, we conclude with future issues such as the role of APEC, the interconnection between digital trade and trade in services, Korea’s strategies for future digital trade agreements, and the multilateral negotiations on digital trade at several international organizations such as WTO and OECD.

본 연구는 한국과 APEC 국가 간 해외직접투자와 포트폴리오투자의 수출입 효과를 분석하는데 연구의 주목적을 두고 있다. 분석결과 한국의 대 APEC 국가에 대한 제조업부문 해외직접투자는 중간재 조달의 형태를 띠면서 모든 산업 부문의 수출을 증가시키는 것으로 분석되었다. 반면 수출대체효과는 모든 산업 부문에서 관찰되지 않았다. 또한 해외직접투자의 수출유발효과가 역수입효과보다 크게 나타나고 있어 한국의 대 APEC 제조업부문 해외직접투자는 한국의 상품수지에 긍정적인 영향을 미치는 것으로 분석되었다. 한국의 APEC 국가로부터의 외국인투자유치와 포트폴리오투자 역시 한국의 대 APEC 수출과 수입을 모두 증가시키는 효과가 있는 것으로 분석되었다.

The purpose of this study is to analyze the impact of foreign direct investment and portfolio investment on imports and exports between Korea and the APEC. The results of analysis are as follows: South Korea's FDI in the manufacturing sector to APEC countries shows the characteristics of intermediate goods’ procurement and has an increasing effect on exports for all industry sectors in South Korea. But export substitution effectiveness of South Korea's FDI patterns was not observed in all industrial sectors. South Korea's overseas direct investment for the APEC manufacturing sector has been analyzed as a positive impact on Korea's goods balance, because the export inducement effect of foreign direct investment appears larger than the effect of re-importation. Further analysis of South Korea’s FDI and portfolio investment from APEC countries exhibits the effect of increasing both exports and imports from South Korea to APEC countries.

This study examines the impact of trade facilitation on China's trade for the period 2010?2017 using a gravity model with a measurement of APEC trade facilitation through principal component analysis. The empirical results confirmed that trade facilitation was a key factor to have a positive effect on Chinese exports and that the higher the level of trade facilitation in APEC countries, the more positive the increase in exports and quantities with China. Further, the size of the economy, the total population, and the border between the trading partner had a positive effect on Chinese trade volume. To promote economic growth through increase in trade volume, countries should actively improve trade facilitation and participate in global trade facilitation reform through continuous cooperation with trading partners.

본 연구에서 무역원활화가 APEC 국가의 수출에 유의한 영향을 미치고 동질상품군과 차별상품군 간에 차별적인 효과를 갖는 실증적 결과가 발견되었다. 무역원활화 관련 요소로서 수출국의 통관시간, 물류운송 인프라 및 정보통신기술 인프라는 차별상품군의 수출에, 수입국의 통관시간은 동질상품군의 수출에 더 강하게 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났다. 시뮬레이션 결과는 수출국의 무역원활화가 개선될 때 APEC 국가의 수출이득이 크게 증가하게 되고 칠레와 페루를 제외한 나머지 모든 국가에서 동질상품군에 비해 차별상품군의 수출이득에 상당히 더 큰 효과를 갖는다는 것을 보여주었다.

This paper analyzed the impact of trade facilitation dimensions including border transport efficiency, logistics and transport infrastructure, customs environment, and information and communication technology infrastructure on the APEC's exports of three product groups such as all products, homogeneous products and differentiated products, of which the attributes are qualitatively different. Estimations were made by using the cross­sectional data of bilateral trade between APEC and its partner countries and applying the gravity model. The empirical results show that all of the trade facilitation variables have a significant impact on the three product groups, of which the estimated coefficients have the expected sign except the effects of exporting clearance time on homogeneous products. The effects of those variables on exports are found to be differential between homogeneous and differentiated products. That is, among the variables of trade facilitation exporting clearance time, logistics and transport infrastructure, and information and communication technology infrastructure have stronger effects on the exports of differentiated products, while importing clearance time has stronger effects on the export of homogeneous products. The simulation analysis illustrates that export gain would be remarkable if all of the trade facilitation factors are improved except the importing clearance time. In APEC countries except Chile and Peru those factors have the effects to bring in larger export gain on differentiated products than homogeneous products. Chile and Peru have the highest export gain from homogeneous products.

본 연구의 목적은 1991년부터 2011년까지 한국을 포함 아태지역 13개국 자료를 대상으로 경기동조성과 무역구조, 자본이동성과의 관계를 분석해 경제통합을 위한 기초정보를 얻기 위해 진행되었다. 이를 위해 무역구조를 대표하는 무역지수, 산업내무역지수 등을 설명변수로, 경기동조성지수를 종속변수로 설정하여 회귀분석, 패널분석을 통하여 검증하였다. 본 연구 결과를 요약하면, 첫째, 분석대상 국가간에 무역지수가 경기동조성에 영향을 주고 있었다. 둘째, 산업내무역지수도 경기동조성의 결정요인으로서 유의한 결과를 보였다. 셋째, 자본이동성지수는 경기동조성과 명확한 관계를 도출할 수 없었다. 이는 분석대상 국가들이 무역연관성은 높으나 자본이동은 미·영 등의 금융중심지와 연관이 높다는 점이 반영된 결과로 해석된다. 결국, 아태경제협력체(APEC)의 분석대상 국가들이 경제통합을 이루려고 한다면 산업내 무역수준이 높아야 경기동조성을 유지할 수 있으며, 통합비용도 줄일 수 있다는 것이다. 따라서 현재로서는 분석대상국가가 자유무역협정(FTA)과 비슷한 낮은 수준의 경제통합은 가능할지 모르나, 통화통합(OCA) 정도의 보다 높은 수준으로 경제통합은 힘들다는 것을 암시한다.

The purpose of this paper is to get information for the economic integration of APEC member countries by measuring the relationship between business cycle synchronization, trade structure and capital movement in 13 APEC member countries. This research had the following outcomes. First, this research finds that trade intensity is the significant factor in explaining business cycle synchronization in APEC member countries. Second, this research also finds intra-industry trade is a significant factor in explaining business cycle synchronization in APEC member countries. Third, this research finds that there is no significant relationship between business cycle synchronization and capital movement. Above all, this paper finds that the 13 sampled countries located in the APEC area are similar in trade structure but different from each other in economic fundamentals. This means, on one hand, that the 13 countries are able to create low-level economic integration like an FTA. On the other hands, those countries have a long way to go to make high-level economic integration like an OCA (optimum currency area).

Information and Communications Technologies are transforming our world on a daily basis. In a fast-moving global economy, international trade, by adopting electronic technologies, could save billions of dollars every year. Switching from paper documents would increase security and transparency in supply chains and provide Governments and the private sector with higher revenues. So, The Asia Region, under APEC and ASEAN, is making enormous efforts to facilitate Paperless Trade. This paper describes the situation and characteristics of Paperless Trading among countries(ASEAN 6 countries : Malaysia, Indonesia, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand,Viet Nam) in ASEAN and APEC. The main focus of this paper is to conduct comparative analysis with Government import and export licenses(permits),Certificates of Origin, Customs documentation. In case of Singapore, nearly 100% of all customs and trade declarations are submitted electronically through the TradeNet® system, which complies with the UN/EDIFACT standards. and exporters are able to issue e-certificates of origin and standards certification in electronic records. But, ASEAN other countries(Malaysia,Indonesia, Philippines, Thailand, Viet Nam), All of customs and trade declarations are not submitted electronically through the TradeNet® system, which complies with the UN/EDIFACT standards. also, exporters oblige to forward certificates of origin and standards certification in paper documents. So, To be successful ASEAN National Single Window in ASEAN(Malaysia,Indonesia, Philippines, Thailand, Viet Nam), We have to support ASEAN 5 Countries with United Nations, APEC, ASEAN, ADB, Developed Countries(Korea, United States, Japan, Singapore).