Earticle

본 연구에서는 ADB MRIO를 이용하여 IT 제조업을 중심으로 한·중·일·미 간 중간재 거래(무 역)를 통한 상호의존관계와 국가 간 생산파급 효과를 분석하였다. 분석 결과에 따르면, 2000년 이후 2022년까지 IT 제조업 생산에 있어서 중간재 공급자로서 중국의 역할이 점차 확대되었으 며, 한·중·일 3국 중 부가가치율이 가장 높은 일본의 중간재 공급자 역할이 약화되었다. 한편, 한국과 일본의 IT 제조업 생산 증가가 중국의 IT 제조업 생산에 미치는 영향은 더욱 커졌다. 한국의 IT 제조업은 한·중·일 3국 중 가장 부가가치유발계수가 낮은 것으로 나타났다. 우리나 라는 IT 제조업의 부가가치율과 IT 제조업 생산에 따른 부가가치유발효과를 강화하여, 약화되 고 있는 일본의 고부가가치 중간재 공급자 역할을 대체할 방안을 모색해야 할 것이다. 이를 위하여 IT 제조업 관련 소재·부품에 대한 공격적인 기술개발 투자와 더불어 미국, 일본과의 협력을 통한 공동연구개발도 적극 추진할 필요가 있다.

Purpose : This study analyzed the production feedback effects and interdependence among Korea, China, Japan, and the United States through the trade of intermediate products in IT manufacturing. Research design, data, methodology : The production inducement coefficient, value-added inducement coefficient, and exogenous technique on production feedback effects are measured using the world input-output table (ADB MRIO) for the years 2000, 2010, and 2022. Results : The role of China as an intermediary supplier in the production of IT manufacturing progressively increased from 2000 to 2022, while Japan's function as an intermediary supplier decreased. As a result, China's production of IT has become more influenced by Korea and Japan. Out of the three nations, Korea had the lowest value-added inducement coefficient. Conclusions : Korea ought to boost the value-added rate and value-added inducement effect of IT manufacturing in order to replace Japan's declining role as a supplier of high-value-added intermediates. Aggressive R&D investment in the IT manufacturing-related materials, components, and equipment industries as well as cooperative R&D with US and Japan should be actively pursued.

In this study, using the 2011 World Input-Output Table published by WIOD in 2015, multiplier effects in the textile industry among Korea, China and Japan are decomposed. The World Input-Output Table includes input-output tables from a total of 40 countries consisting of 27 EU countries and 13 other countries from the rest of world. In this study, the data was re-categorized into four countries of Korea, China, Japan and other countries, and the industries are reclassified to 34 sectors for the reanalysis. When final demands of the textile industry in Korea increase by 10,000 units, the influences on both China and Japan were intensively analyzed. The summary of the analyzed results in this study and suggestions for policies are as follows:First, as a result of decomposing the multiplier effects among Korea, China and Japan, for intra-country(domestic) multiplier effect, China accounted for the highest(about 3.1 times), then Japan(about 2.12 times) and Korea(about 2.10 times) followed in order. Korea should make an effort to double domestic multiplier effect by studying the domestic intermediate transactions and adding value chains. Second, for spillover effects by each other among Korea, China and Japan, Korea accounted for the highest value on China with 3,116.46 units, and Japan also accounted for the highest one on China with 2,949.58 units. However, China accounted for relatively lower effects on Korea and Japan. China has a broad domestic market and its domestic multiplier effect is high, but Korea has a low domestic one. Korea requires a strategy to raise the domestic multiplier effect by expanding the domestic market and strengthening input-output structure within its textile industry. Third, for feedback effect, China was the highest with 59.77 units while Korea and Japan accounted for lower values 37.11 units and 36.40 units, respectively. Finally, to develop the Korean textile industry, the input-output structure between China and Japan should be precisely analyzed and then the solutions for raising competitive power should be sought.

This study analyzes the decomposition of production inducement effects of the electronics industry among Korea, the USA, and Japan using the 2014 World Input-Output Table published by WIOD in 2016. The World Input-Output Table consists of a total 43 countries, including 28 EU nations, and other 15 countries. The countries were reclassified into four parts: Korea, the USA, Japan and other countries. Industrial sectors were re-grouped from 56 to 42 sectors and they were re-analyzed. As a result of the decomposition of production inducement effects, the domestic multiplier effect was highest in Korea having about double times higher effects than other countries, and followed by Japan which had a 1.9 times effect, and then the USA which had a 1.4 times effect, respectively. For each country's spillover effects on other countries among Korea, the USA, and Japan, both Korea and the USA had the highest effect on Japan, while Japanese spillover effects were a little higher on the USA than Korea. For the spillover effects by nation, Korea was the highest, and Japan and the USA followed in order. These trends seem to be explained by the conclusion that the USA used imported products from other countries more, causing it to have lower domestic input-output relations. However, the input-output relations between the USA and Japan were higher. It is a bit of a problem for Korea. Compared to the analysis results in 2014 with those in 2010, all three countries had lower multiplier effects in 2014 than in 2010. The reason for lower effects in 2014 than in 2010 seems to be that the input-output relations in the electronics industry among the countries and industries were reduced. Korea should try to double the domestic and feedback effects by studying intermediate transactions and global value added chains in the electronics industry and by raising its competitiveness in the electronic components industries.

본 연구는 2000~2014년 기간 국제산업연관표(WIOT)를 이용해 중국의경제에서 발생한 충격이 세계경제에 미치는 영향을 산업별로 분석했다. 구체적으로 중국경제의 구조변화를 검토한 후 중국 경제가 세계에서 차지하는 산업별 비중 변화와 함께 중국의 최종수요 증가가 전 세계에 미치는산업별 경제적 파급효과를 분석했다. 분석결과, 첫째, 현행 중국의 산업구조는 제조업 중심인 것으로 나타났지만 부가가치 창출 효과는 낮은 것으로 나타났다. 반면 중간투입 대비 산출 비중은 농림수산업과 서비스업이큰 것으로 나타났고 최근 상승세를 보이고 있는 것으로 나타났다. 둘째, 전 세계경제에서 중국이 차지하는 비중은 상승하고 있으며, 특히 농림수산업, 제조업, 건설업 비중이 높은 수준을 보이고 있는데 반해 서비스업비중은 상대적으로 낮은 수준을 보였다. 마지막으로 중국의 최종수요 증가로 인한 세계 경제 파급효과(해외 생산유발계수와 부가가치유발계수)는대체로 약화되고 있는 것으로 나타났다. 이상의 결과는 중국경제가 향후에도 제조업과 건설업을 중심으로 전 세계 경제에 큰 영향을 미칠 수 있음을 시사한다. 다만, 부가가치 측면에서 제조업 중심의 경제 성장의 한계로 인해 서비스업으로 경제 성장의 패러다임이 전환될 경우, 중국의 대세계 영향력은 제조업에서 서비스업 중심으로 변화할 가능성이 있다. 따라서 제조업 중심의 대중 수출 의존도가 큰 국가들은 수출다변화 전략을마련함과 동시에 서비스업 경쟁력 강화를 위한 정책대응이 필요하다는 것을 알 수 있다.

This study uses the world input-output table (WIOT) from 2000 to 2014 to identify the effects of the changes of Chinese industrial structure on world economy. Specifically, we examine the structural changes in the Chinese economy. And then, we analyze the changes in the share of Chinese economy in the world, and the impacts of Chinese final demand growth on the world economy. Empirical results are as follows. First, the current industrial structure of China is centered on manufacturing, but the value-added creation effect is low. On the other hand, the ratio of output to intermediate input shows that agriculture, forestry and fishery industry and service industry are big, and it is increasing recently. Second, the share ofChina in the world economy is rising, especially in the agriculture, forestry and fisheries, manufacturing and construction sectors, while the proportion of the service sector is relatively low. Finally, the impact of Chinese final demand growth on the world economy has generally been weakening. These results suggest that the Chinese economy may have a major impact on the world economy, centering on manufacturing and construction sectors. However, if the economic growth paradigm of the Chinese government is transformed into a service industry as the manufacturing-oriented economic growth is limited, Chinese influence on the world economy may change from manufacturing to service industry. Therefore, countries with high economic dependence on China need to establish a strategy to diversify their exports and to strengthen competitiveness of the service industry.

In this paper, based on world input-output table, the impact of trade on employment is analyzed for Korea, China, and Japan. The result shows that Korean employment is more sensitive to the change of export than Chinese and Japanese employment. Also according to the results, Korean export to the world is more contributable to the world employment than Chinese and Japanese export because Korea imports more intermediate goods in producing the same amount of exports than the two countries. It is found that Korean and Japanese export more contribute for creating Chinese employment than Chinese export contributes for Korean and Japanese employment. Also export creates more jobs in service sector than manufacturing sector in the countries. Especially, although for Korea and Japan exports in manufacturing sector is further more than service sector,more jobs are created in service sector than manufacturing sector through exports. Interesting point is the fact that although there exists negative employment effect of import, on the other hand, there are also positive side effect from import because of global production relation among countries. It is found that the positive side effect is more for China than Korea and Japan. It reflects more important role of China in global production network.

본 연구는 EU와 OECD의 주요 36개국간 세계산업연관표를 이용하여, 사회적경제의 대리변수로써 비영리단체의 최종소비지출에 따른 국가간 경제적 파급효과를 추정하였다. 그 분석결과는 다음과 같다. 첫째, 주요 36개국 비영리단체의 최종소비지출은 최근 성장하고 있으며, 특히 한국은 이 국가 중에서도 가장 대표적으로 비영리단체의 규모가 크게 성장하고 있다. 둘째, 비영리단체 최종소비지출의 국가간 경제적 파급효과는 영국과 일본, 독일, 프랑스, 브라질, 한국 등이 가장 높게 나타났지만, 최종소비지출 단위당 파급효과는 오히려 이러한 국가들이 낮게 나타났다. 셋째, 산업별 경제적 파급효과를 살펴보면, 대부분의 국가는 비영리단체의 최종소비지출에 따른 경제적 파급효과가 소비자서비스업에서 가장 높은 반면, 대만은 제조업이 가장 높고, 특히 영국과 일본, 한국은 사회서비스업에 집중되고 있다.

This study estimates the economic effect of non-profit organizations on final consumption expenditure by using World Input-output Table of the 36 major countries in EU and OECD as proxy variables for the social economy. The results of analysis are as follows. First, the final consumption expenditure of non-profit organizations in 36 major countries has been growing. In particular, Korea shows a remarkable growth in scale among these countries. Second, the economic effects between countries through final consumer expenditure on nonprofit organizations are high in the following countries: Britain, Japan, Germany, France, Brazil, and Korea. However, the effect per unit of final consumption expenditure was rather low in these countries. Third, except for Taiwan, most countries have focused on non-profit organizations' economic impact on consumer services sector considering the economic effect by industry classifications, Particularly, the UK, Japan and Korea have focused on social services. The results of these analyses are expected to be used to identify the types of activities of nonprofit organizations through the size of final consumption expenditure of nonprofit organizations in each country. Furthermore, this can be used as fundamental data to examine the area and type of social economy in the national accounts of each country.