Earticle

본 연구에서는 소비자들의 경기 전망이 낙관적일 경우에 소비가 증가할 수 있으며, 이는 전문경 영인들의 경기 전망을 낙관적으로 이끌 수 있을 것이라는 논리를 기반으로 소비자동향지수 (CSI)와 기업경기실사지수(BSI) 간의 선행-후행 관계를 연구하였다. 기존연구들에서 수행되 지 않았던 측면으로서, 본 연구에서는 ‘공표된 CSI’, ‘공표된 BSI’ 각각의 추세요소, 잡음요소를 추정하여 ‘CSI 추세요소’와 ‘BSI 추세요소’ 간의 관계, ‘CSI 잡음요소’와 ‘BSI 잡음요소’ 간의 관계에 대해서도 연구하였다. Granger 인과관계 검정 결과에서는 ‘공표된 CSI’가 ‘공표된 BSI’를 일방향으로 Granger 인과하는 것으로 나타났다. 그리고 ‘CSI 추세요소’가 ‘BSI 추세요 소’에 대해 일방향의 Granger 인과관계를 보였으며, ‘CSI 잡음요소’도 ‘BSI 잡음요소’에 대해 일방향의 선행관계가 있는 것으로 나타났다. 종합해보면, CSI가 전문경영인들의 경기전망을 선행하는 것으로 해석된다. 충격반응함수 분석에서는 CSI 상승 충격에 대해 BSI는 대체적으로 상승하는 반응을 보였다. 본 연구결과와 같이 CSI가 BSI에 대해 유의하게 선행 관계를 가진다 는 연구결과는 소비자들의 긍정적 경기 전망이 소비 등의 경제행위로 이어질 것이므로 BSI 상승으로 나타나게 된다는 의미로 해석된다. 이는 CSI 행태를 분석하는 것이 경기 분석, 경제 정책 수립, 전문경영인들의 경영전략 수립 등에 활용될 수 있다는 것을 의미한다.

In this paper, based on the logic that if consumers' economic outlook is optimistic, consumption may increase, which may lead CEOs’ economic outlook to be optimistic, this study studied the lead-lag relationship between Consumer Sentiment Index(CSI) and Business Survey Index(BSI). Unlike previous studies, this study investigates the relation between ‘the trend component of CSI’ and ‘the trend component of BSI’, and the relation between ‘the noise component of CSI’ and ‘the noise component of BSI’. In order to estimate trend component and noise component, this study employs the unobserved component model. In the Granger causality analysis, it was found that ‘released CSI’ Granger causes ‘released BSI’ in one direction. ‘The trend component of CSI’ showed unilateral Granger causal relation to ‘the trend component of BSI’, and ‘the noise component of CSI’ also had a one-way precedence relation to ‘the noise component of BSI’. In sum, it is interpreted that CSI precedes CEOs’ economic outlook. In the impulse response function analysis, when CSI increases, BSI generally increases. As shown in this study, the findings that CSI has a significant preceding relation to BSI imply that analyzing the business outlook of consumers can be used for economic analysis and economic policy establishment, and management strategies for CEOs.

The life prediction method based on the power spectral envelope energy and Support Vector Machine (SVM), which is the combination of time-domain and frequency-domain, is proposed for the key component of aircraft’s (aircraft air refrigerator) life unpredictable problems. By first, made a long-term test for aircraft air refrigerator through aircraft-specific life testing platform, then got a lot of acceleration parameters which characterize the health status of the aircraft air refrigerator. Through the analysis of acceleration parameters’ power spectrum, its power spectrum envelope energy would be obtained. Used the power spectrum envelope energy to construct feature vector, and designed SVM life prediction model and using this model to predict aircraft air refrigerator’s lifetime. The research results show that the life prediction method based on the power spectral envelope energy and SVM can achieve a good life prediction of aircraft air refrigerator, and laid the foundation for life prediction of air refrigerator in aircraft engineering application.

We offer a systematic examination of the extent of permanence of the adverse influence of the 1997 crisis and its aftermath on Koreas potential GDP trend by employing unobserved component models that decompose observed output into a stochastic trend and a stationary cycle. We consider models that allow a nonzero covariance between trend and cycle innovations. Results from several unobserved component models indicate that long-term trend growth rate has shifted downward in the post-1997 crisis period as the event seemed to have left some permanent adverse impact. At the same time, output gaps measured using output-Phillips curve models have remain negative in the same period. Results seem to suggest that it is premature to make such pronouncements that the Korea economy has now entered an era of low growth. Say, an annual growth rate in the 4% range.

The technology of the SWG (Smart Water Grid) as one of most important national projects results in significant assignment that is closely associated with systematic management and effective operation. The individual component technics are required to establish directory and classification for the purpose of effectively managing their information related to research and development (R&D). The national science technology (S&T) standard classification tree which results in the representative example has been established with an intention to manage R&D information, human resource, and budget. It has been also revised every five years and then used in the various fields related to the evaluation, administration, and prediction of the national R&D projects. In addition, the standard classification system for R&D projects has been widely used in the UNESCO (United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization) and EU (European Union) since the Frascati Manual was established in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). Therefore, it is necessary for SWG techniques to develop the standard S&T classification tree for research management and evaluation. For this, it is essential to draw the core techniques for the SWG, which are incorporated with IT (Information Technology), NT (Nano Technology), and BT (Biology Technology).

소프트웨어 컴포넌트는, 독립된 단위 기능의 소프트웨어 부품이라고 정의할 수 있으며, 언제 어디서나 누구나 필요한 정보를 쉽게 얻을 수 있는 인터넷 환경이 보편화되고 인터넷상의 다양한 소프트웨어 부품을 조림하고 사용할 수 있는 'Plug and Play'기술이 최근 급격히 발전함에 따라 컴포넌트 기반 소프트웨어 개발 추세의 가속을 더하고 있다. 컴포넌트 재사용 및 개발 요구가 이와 같이 증대함에 따라, 국내외적으로 많은 국가/단체 등이 자국 및 자사의 이익에 맞게 소프트웨어 컴포넌트를 표준화하여 사용하고자 하는 움직임이 활발히 이루어 지고 있다. 본 고에서는 소프트웨어 컴포넌트와 관련된 기술 및 표준화 동향에 대하여 분석, 정리하였다.