Earticle

본 논문은 수출신용보험 중 수출과 보다 밀접한 관련이 있는 단기수출신용보험이 수출에 미치는 효과를 파악하고자 하였다. 특히 글로벌 금융위기 전과 후의 영향력을 비교하고 글로벌 금융위기 후에는 수출신용보험의 운용주체에 따른 영향력의 차이를 살펴보고자 하였다. 이를 위해 전기 수출, 세계GDP, 실질실효환율, 각 국 GDP, 단기수출신용보험으로 구성된 수출수요함수를 상정하고 Arellano and Bond의 동태적 패널모형을 위한 일반화적률추정법을 이용하여 단기수출신용보험이 수출에 미치는 영향을 분석하였다. 실증분석결과 글로벌 금융위기 전과 후 모두에서 단기수출신용보험은 수출에 긍정적인 영향을 미쳤으며 글로벌 금융위기 전보다 후의 영향력이 큰 것으로 나타났고 민간보다는 공공부문의 수출신용보험기관이 수출에 긍정적인 역할을 하였다. 이러한 결과는 글로벌 금융위기 발생 직후를 제외하고는 공적 수출신용보험기관은 꾸준히 단기수출신용보험공급을 늘린 반면 민간보험사는 단기수출신용보험공급을 줄인 때문으로 분석된다.

The effects of short-term (ST) export credit insurance on exports were analyzed as ST export credit insurance has a closer relationship with exports than other types of export credits with varying terms. The export demand function was calculated based on the export volumes, global GDP, real effective exchange rate (REER), GDP from each country, and ST export credit insurance business volumes for the applicable years. In addition, the effects of ST credit insurance on exports were analyzed using the generalized method of moments Arellano and Bond dynamic panel estimator. The results of this substantive analysis showed that ST export credit insurance affected positively before and after the global financial crisis, in which this positive effect was more so after the crisis. Furthermore, data analysis indicated that this positive effect on exports came more from official export credit agencies (ECAs) than private insurers. This result was due to private insurers reducing while ECAs steadily increasing their volumes of ST export credit insurance after the crisis, except immediately after the start of the crisis.

This paper empirically examines the effects of R&D investment on productivity using dynamic panel data (DPD) model for Korea's listed and non-listed manufacturing companies over the period from 2000 to 2007. In estimating the DPD model, it controls for simultaneity and inconsistency caused by distributional problems of R&D spending by employing two stage Tobit-GMM method. Empirical results suggest that for all firms, either in high-tech or low-tech industry, R&D expenditure is positively associated with enhancement of productivity but R&D investment has a larger effect on labor productivity in high-tech firms than in low-tech firms. This implies that government R&D subsidy would have a stronger effect on productivity for high-tech firms,especially small and medium sized firms, rather than for low-tech firms.

This paper empirically investigates determinants of inbound tourism demand for Korea using a dynamic panel data model. The empirical analysis uses the panel data set for the 34 countries over the period 1995-2009, estimating the dynamic panel model by the Generalized Method of Moment to control for the endogeneity of the lagged dependent variable. The endogeneity bias could be caused by the OLS estimation of the model which includes the lagged dependent variable as a regressor. Empirical results are as follows. First, the estimated coefficients of the lagged dependent variable are found to be statistically significant, which may reflect a high degree of consumer loyalty or an important effect of 'word of mouth' in determining international tourism demand for Korea. Second, empirical results show that the estimated coefficient of income elasticity of tourism demand to Korea should be positively significant, supporting the results of the previous studies. Third, the cost of tourism to Korea turns out to be statistically significant and thus an important factor in determining tourism demand. Finally, In contrast to theory prediction that foreign exchange rate can have positive effects on tourism demand, however, there is no robust evidence that nominal exchange rate should lead to an increase in tourism demand.