Earticle

This paper concerns Bolsa Familia which is one of the largest Conditional Cash Transfer (CCT) programs in the world, benefiting 11 millions families. It provides a monthly transfer to poor households on the condition of child education, and a monthly transfer to extremely poor households regardless of their composition. Under president Fernando Henrique Cardoso (1995–2002), and since Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva took office in 2003, targeted assistance in education, health and nutrition have expanded greatly. They are now united under Bolsa Familia: on the one hand, it has yield very positive results in terms of targeting and its effects on poverty and inequality; on the other, there is a risk that it could generate an adverse effect over quality aspect. Ultimately, the paper attempts to assess the experience of Brazilian CCT which is the flagship policy of Lula’s social policy, from the angle of effectiveness and efficiency.

1990년대 후반부터 라틴아메리카 전역에는 조건부현금이전(Conditional Cash Transfer, CCT) 프로그램이라는 새로운 형태의 공공부조 사업이 도입되기 시작하였다. 빈민과 취약계층을 대상으로 조건부로 현금을 이전하는 CCT 프로그램은 공식부문 노동자들을 대상으로 하는 사회보험이 지배적인 기존의 라틴아메리카 사회보장제도가 지닌 한계를 보완할 혁신적인 정책이자 신속한 빈곤 퇴치와 인적자원개발에 기여할 효율적 분배 정책으로 평가 받아왔다. 특히 21세기 초반 남미를 중심으로 지배적인 정치 세력으로 부상했던 신좌파 정부들이 불평등 완화와 빈곤퇴치를 위한 핵심적인 분배 정책으로 CCT 프로그램을 확대 도입함에 따라 지역 내에서 그 파급력은 더욱 확대되었다. 본 논문은 라틴아메리카의 불평등 완화와 빈곤퇴치를 위한 핵심적인 분배정책으로서 CCT 프로그램의 성과와 한계를 논의한다. 먼저 본 논문은 라틴아메리카 기존 사회보장제도의 문제점을 살펴보고, 그 대안으로서 CCT가 도입되게 된 요인을 살펴본다. 그리고 CCT 프로그램 시행을 통해 빈곤퇴치와 인적자원개발 부문에서 거둔 주목할 성과에도 불구하고 보다 구조적인 세제 개편이나 사회보험제도 개혁이 동반되지 않을 경우 연성 재분배로서 CCT의 효과는 절대빈곤에 대한 단기적인 완화조치에 그칠 수 있다고 주장한다. 이와 더불어 CCT가 수혜자에 대한 현금이전에 그치지 않고 사회적 권리 확대를 위한 혁신적 제도로 거듭나기 위해서는 조건부성에 대한 비판적인 논의와 보완이 필요하다고 주장한다.

Since the late 1990s, Latin American countries witnessed the emergence of a new social assistance program called "Conditional Cash Transfer (CCT)". Providing targeted cash transfers to the needy population, CCT program has been praised as an innovation in the Latin American social protection system which is often criticized for its fragmented and regressive characteristics. The impact of CCT program has been widened as Latin American new left regimes started adopting and expanding CCT program as a crucial strategy to fight against the issue of inequality and poverty. This article explores whether CCT program truly can contribute as a major distributive policy to overcome the prevailing poverty and inequality of Latin America. At the first part, this article discusses the distinct features of CCT program in comparison with social insurance which comprises a greater part of governmental social spending in Latin America. After discussing diverse political and economic backgrounds of the adoption of CCT program, this article clarifies its achievement in the field of poverty reduction and social investment in human capital. Despite these achievements, this article argues that CCT program cannot make a long-term and meaningful change in the uneven distributive structure of Latin America without being combined by profound reforms both in the fiscal policies and previous social insurance systems. Additionally, this article argues that critical reflection should be given on the conditionality of CCT program which can be source of both its merits and limitations. In order to progress to rights-based welfare, this article argues that the conditionality of CCT program needs to be critically revised.

Yogyakarta province in Indonesia plagued with persistent poverty challenges for decades. There were several ways to reduce its poverty rate; one is through conditional cash transfer (CCT) scheme. This study aims to measure the impact of CCT program of Family Hope Program (PKH) on hosuehold poverty proxied by food and non-food consumption expenditure using Propensity Score Matching (PSM) method. Using a large scale of survey data, this study disagregated the estimation in urban-rural areas. The result revealed that the PKH program has been successful in reducing poverty in impoverished households by significantly increasing their food and non-food consumption expenses. The program has had a more significant effect in rural regions than in urban. The impact is more profound in increasing food consumption expenditure. This underscores the program's effectiveness and the importance of its continuation or expansion to combat poverty further and improve the welfare of vulnerable households.

본 논문은 니카라과의 조건부 현금 지급(CCT) 프로그램인 Red de Protección Social(RPS)의 사례를 통해 특정 사회보장제도의 도입과 전개에 중요한 영향을 미치는 요인들을 설명하고자 한다. 이에 본 논문은 20세기 말 니카라과의 정치·경제적 상황에서 RPS의 도입을 야기한 주요 요인은 무엇이며 긍정적인 평가에도 불구하고 RPS가 단명하게 된 요인이 무엇인지 문제제기한다. 본 논문은 니카라과가 CCT 프로그램인 RPS를 도입하게 된 여건을 먼저 역사적인 관점에서 살펴보고, 이를 바탕으로 RPS의 전개를 설명하는 데에 어떠한 국내외적 요인들이 중요하게 작용하였는지 살펴본다. 본 논문은 니카라과가 처한 정치·경제적 상황에서 국제금융기구의 회유와 압박이 RPS의 도입에 큰 역할을 하였음을 확인한다. 하지만, 국제금융기구의 주도로 이루어진 HIPC Initiative를 통한 채무 탕감이 완료되자, 애초에 부족했던 RPS에 대한 니카라과 국내적 합의가 외부로부터의 영향력을 상쇄하였다고 분석한다. 결국 니카라과 정부의 미흡한 역량과 부족한 정치적 합의가 RPS의 지속을 저해한 것이다. 이와 같이, 특정 국가의 복지 정책의 전개는 외부의 헤게모니적 영향과 이에 대응하는 해당 국가의 정부와 정치 엘리트의 역량과 합의의 복합적인 상호 작용을 통해 결정된다.

The current paper examines the factors that have a major influence on the introduction and development of specific social protection schemes, through the case of Nicaragua’s conditional cash transfer (CCT) program, Red de Proteccion Social (RPS). The paper asks what were the main factors behind the introduction of the RPS in the politico-economic situation of Nicaragua in the late 20th century and also what factors might explain its discontinuation in spite of positive evaluations about it. The current paper approaches the background of the RPS from a historical perspective, and then investigates external and internal factors of the introduction and discontinuation of the RPS. The paper observes that the carrot and the stick of the international financial institutions played an important role in Nicaragua’s implementation of the RPS against the backdrop of the particular politico-economic situation. It argues, however, that once debt relief under the HIPC Initiative by the international financial institutions was completed, the unstable internal consensus about the RPS in Nicaragua offset the influence from outside. After all, the weak capacity of the government and the lack of the strong consensus within the government toward the RPS hindered the continuation of the RPS. Thus, the development of the welfare policy of a particular country is determined by multifaceted influence of both external hegemonic pressure and the capacity and consensus of the responding domestic political elite.