Earticle

초록

영어

This study analyzes the spatiotemporal characteristics, supply transition, and synchronization patterns of the total pre-sale volume of new apartments across the autonomous districts (Gu) of Seoul from January 2012 to April 2025. The findings reveal that Seoul's housing supply market forms a polycentric structure with significant disparities in supply scale and frequency among districts. The Gangnam 3-Gu area (Gangnam, Seocho, and Songpa) functions as a core supply hub in terms of total presale volume, driven by large-scale redevelopment projects, whereas Yongsan-gu exhibits a relatively high per-unit presale price despite ranking in the mid-tier in total presale volume. Peripheral districts such as Dobong-gu and Gangbuk-gu exhibit limited supply opportunities. Spatial autocorrelation analysis indicates that total presale volume shows, on average, no clear positive spatial synchronization across the observation period, although periods coinciding with major regulatory and macroeconomic shifts—such as the phase-out of the reconstruction profit-sharing levy exemption in 2016–2018 and the liquidity expansion following the COVID-19 pandemic in 2021– 2022—show a temporary rise in spatial autocorrelation. Furthermore, spatial regression analysis tentatively suggests differentiated, though only partially significant, response elasticity to supply signals across districts: Seocho-gu shows a statistically robust and stable reception coefficient (γ<1), while Gangdong-gu exhibits a high reception coefficient (γ>1), though with considerable estimation uncertainty. These exploratory results suggest that housing supply policies may benefit from moving beyond uniform measures toward regionalized strategies that account for the differentiated reception elasticity and structural roles of individual districts, though further validation through robust statistical testing is warranted.

목차

Abstract
1. 서론
2. 이론적 고찰
2.1 주택시장의 공간적 확산과 동조화
2.2 공급 규모와 분양시장 구조적 특성
2.3 다핵도시구조와 공간적 비대칭성
2.4 시차적 공간회귀모형의 설정
3. 분석방법
4. 실증분석 결과
4.1 자치구별 총분양규모 분석결과
4.2 Global Moran’s I에 의한 공간 자기상관 분석
4.3 확산·수용계수 공간회귀분석 결과
5. 결론
REFERENCES

키워드

저자

• 박사유 [ Park, Sau | 서울대학교 환경대학원 환경계획연구소 ]
• 정재훈 [ Jung, Jae-Hun | 단국대학교 도시계획부동산학부 조교수 ] Corresponding Author

참고문헌

발행기관

간행물

표지보기 관심저널 등록

• 간행물명

  대한건축학회연합논문집 [Journal of the Regional Association of Architectural Institute of Korea]

• 간기

  격월간

• pISSN

  1229-5752

• 수록기간

  1999~2026

• 등재여부

  KCI 등재

• 십진분류

  KDC 540 DDC 690