Earticle

초록

영어

This study examines capital market reactions to sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) disclosure events across Korean and Japanese airlines. [Design/Methodology] Employing the Brown and Warner (1985) market model event study as the primary method and supplementary difference-in-differences (DID) panel analysis, we analyze 21 SAF-related events across six airlines from 2020 to 2025. Robustness is assessed using a three-factor specification that augments the market model with exchange rate and Brent crude oil returns, and event clustering bias is examined under five alternative event specifications. [Findings] Both Korean (mean CAR(−1,+1)=−1.27%, p=0.063) and Japanese (−1.22%, p=0.079) SAF contract disclosures generate marginally significant negative short-term abnormal returns, indicating a universal cost-signaling effect regardless of policy environment. However, an asymmetric long-run pattern emerges: Korean airlines exhibit persistent negative CARs at wider windows (CAR(−10,+10)=−6.47%, p<0.001), while Japanese airlines reverse to positive (CAR(−10,+10)=+2.61%, p<0.001). Cross-border spillover effects are directionally positive but statistically insignificant at event-level aggregation (p=0.183). Supplementary DID analysis suggests higher Q_proxy for full-service carriers post-2024 (β=+0.246, p=0.024), though merger confounds limit causal inference. [Implications] SAF disclosures are universally processed as short-term cost burdens, but long-run value recovery depends on the maturity of national policy frameworks. These findings inform policymakers that regulatory certainty can mitigate the capital market penalty associated with SAF adoption.

목차

ABSTRACT
I. Introduction
II. Theoretical Background and Hypotheses
2.1 Capital Market Reactions to Environmental Disclosures
2.2 Long-Run Persistence And Policy Framework
2.3 Cross-Border Spillover Effects
III. Research Design
3.1 Sample and Data
3.2 Event Definition
3.3 Event Study Methodology
3.4 DID Supplementary Analysis
IV. Empirical Results
4.1 Short-Term Market Reactions to SAF Disclosures (H1)
4.2 Long-Run Persistence and Reversal (H2)
4.3 Cross-Border Spillover Effects (H3, Exploratory)
4.4 DID Supplementary Analysis (Descriptive Patterns)
4.5 Robustness Checks
V. Conclusion and Implications
References

키워드

저자

• Jinsuk Choi [ Senior Director, Korea Investment Corporation ] Corresponding Author

참고문헌

발행기관

간행물

표지보기 관심저널 등록

• 간행물명

  산업혁신연구 [The Journal of Industrial Innovation]

• 간기

  계간

• pISSN

  2005-2936

• eISSN

  2800-0080

• 수록기간

  1985~2026

• 등재여부

  KCI 등재

• 십진분류

  KDC 325 DDC 658