Earticle

초록

영어

We employ a time-variant parameter structure vector auto-regression model with stochastic volatility. The Markov Chain Monte Carlo method estimates a TVP-VAR model with stochastic volatility. We also employ different lag periods and time points to investigate the impact of economic policy uncertainty and the stock market on Korea’s trade. First, we find that the stock markets exert a positive impact on Korea’s imports and exports. Second, we find that the global economic policy uncertainty index has a negative impact on Korea’s imports. Third, we find that global economic policy uncertainty has a negative impact on Korea’s exports in the short-term, but a positive impact persists in the medium- to long-term. These findings reveal that the global economic policy uncertainty index will have an impact on the demand-side economy for Korea’s export trade. Since Korea is one of the major exporters of high-tech and high value-added products in the world, changes in global economic policies will directly impact the demand for commodities, thereby affecting Korea’s export trade. On the contrary, the uncertainty of Korea’s economic policy will impact the operation of exporting companies, namely, the supply-side economy.

목차

Abstract
Ⅰ. Introduction
Ⅱ. Literature Review
Ⅲ. Empirical Model and Data
Ⅳ. Empirical Results
Ⅴ. Conclusions
References

키워드

저자

• Yun-Zhang Li [ 부경대학교 대학원 경영학과 박사과정 ] 제1연구자
• Yue Li [ This research was supported by Pukyong National University Development Project Research Fund ]
• Hui-Li Zhang [ This research was supported by Pukyong National University Development Project Research Fund ]
• Tae-Yeong Choi [ 부경대학교 경영학부 ] 교신저자

참고문헌

발행기관

간행물

표지보기 관심저널 등록

• 간행물명

  무역통상학회지 [Journal of Korea Research Association of International Commerce]

• 간기

  격월간

• pISSN

  1738-4354

• 수록기간

  2001~2025

• 등재여부

  KCI 등재

• 십진분류

  KDC 326 DDC 380