Earticle

초록

영어

This study aims to predict uncertain future scenarios that may unfold in South Korea in the near future, utilizing the theory of extreme events(X-events). A group of 32 experts, consisting of government emergency planning officers, was selected as the focus group to achieve this objective. Using the Focus Group Interview (FGI) technique, opinions were gathered from this focus group regarding potential X-events that may occur within the advanced science and technology domains over the next 10 years. The analysis of these opinions revealed that government emergency planning officers regarded the "Obsolescence of current technology and systems," particularly in the context of cyber network paralysis as the most plausible X-event within science and technology. They also put forth challenging and intricate opinions, including the emergence of new weapon systems and ethical concerns associated with artificial intelligence (AI). Given that X-events are more likely to emerge in unanticipated areas rather than those that are widely predicted, the results obtained from this study carry significant importance. However, it's important to note that this study is grounded in a limited group of experts, highlighting the necessity for subsequent research involving a more extensive group of experts. This research seeks to stimulate studies on extreme events at a national level and contribute to the preparation for future X-event predictions and strategies for addressing them.

목차

Abstract
1. INTRODUCTION
2. Theoretical Reflection on Extreme Events
3. Analysis of Expert Opinions on X-Events
4. CONCLUSION
REFERENCES

키워드

저자

• Sang-Keun Cho [ Research Prof, Future Institute for National Strategic Technology and Policy, KAIST, Korea ]
• Jong-Hoon Kim [ Commanding Officer, 115th Mechanized Battalion, 30th Armored Brigade, Army, Korea ]
• Ki-Woon Kim [ professor, Dept. of Military, Daekyeung Univ, Korea ]
• In-Chan Kim [ Staff Officer, Army Training Center, Korea ]
• Myung-Sook Hong [ Researcher, Army Future Innovation Research Center, Korea ]
• Jun-Chul Song [ Instructor, Dept. of Tactics, Army college, Korea ]
• Sang-Hyuk Park [ Associate professor, Dept. of Military, Woosuk Univ, Korea ] Corresponding Author

참고문헌

발행기관

간행물

표지보기 관심저널 등록

• 간행물명

  International Journal of Advanced Culture Technology(IJACT)

• 간기

  계간

• pISSN

  2288-7202

• eISSN

  2288-7318

• 수록기간

  2013~2025

• 등재여부

  KCI 등재

• 십진분류

  KDC 600 DDC 700