Earticle

초록

영어

Under the Biden Administration, new Cold War discourses equal to ‘China bashing’ and strategic containment of China by the U.S. have intensified. Accordingly, China’s offensive rhetoric against the U.S. and the formation of its own camps confronting the country has been also fierce and active. In the middle of the escalating rivalry between the U.S. and China came the invasion of Ukraine by Russia, a key strategic partner of China vis-à-vis the U.S. Against this backdrop, it is easy to assume that China would be hardly hesitant to support Russia and consequently the bilateral relationship between the U.S. and China will sour greatly. However, this article argues that China will be quite cautious in helping Russia and its wartime policy toward the country and the U.S. will be also conservative in general. In strategic terms, though it is true that the last thing China wants is a Russian decline due to the war or ultimate failure of the war, it has to consider strategic losses, i.e., the backlash from each of the U.S. and Europe and the mutual consolidation of the two induced by its assistance of Russia. Economically, China’s dependence on the U.S. in trade is far bigger than its reliance on Russia. Notably, it still needs U.S. soybean and wheat for its ‘food security’ when it wants Russian fossil fuels including oil, natural gas, and coal. On top of that, it is not yet independent of U.S. advanced technological design, parts, and equipment. Politically, judging by surveys, it could be argued that the Chinese people are strongly pro-Russian at this moment and the leadership will heed and reflect their voices for its own legitimacy and power retention. However, the people’s policy preference for Russia is not so much moral support or weapon provision as negotiation to end the conflict. Overall, considering the above, the Ukraine crisis will not prompt China’s sharp change of its diplomatic course for Russia and thus for the U.S. either; in this sense, the contention that the crisis will accelerate a new Cold War or consolidation of the blocs supporting the U.S. or China lacks grounds.

목차

Abstract
1. 서론
2. 중국의 대미 인식과 대응
2.1 신냉전의 부인(否認)과 대미 불신
2.2 공세적 대미 경고
2.3 대미 진영의 공고화
3. 우크라이나 사태에 대한 중국의 입장 - 중립을 표방한 친러
4. 중국의 전략적 판단 - 대러/대미 정책의 변수와 친러 정책의 한계
4.1 중국의 대미 세력균형
4.2 중국의 대러, 대미 경제의존도
4.3 중국의 양면게임
5. 결론
참고문헌

키워드

저자

• 백영주 [ Baik, Young-Ju | 충남대학교 국제지역학과 ]
• 김지운 [ Kim, Jih-Un | 충남대학교 정치외교학과 ]

참고문헌

발행기관

간행물

표지보기 관심저널 등록

• 간행물명

  Journal of China Studies

• 간기

  계간

• pISSN

  1975-5902

• eISSN

  3022-5590

• 수록기간

  2006~2026

• 등재여부

  KCI 등재

• 십진분류

  KDC 912 DDC 951