Earticle

초록

영어

This paper investigates the boom-bust cycle of real estate in South Korea and Japan using a new approach to the estimation of systems that builds on 4-state regime swithcing model. According to the empirical analysis, first, in addition to the rising and falling states, there are overheating and supercooling states in the real estate market of both countries. Second, overall, the current real estate market in South Korea and Japan has entered the rising state. In particular, Gangnam-gu APT in South Korea are already an overheated phase. Third, since long-term low interest rates and excess liquidity conditions are likely to serve as additional upward pressure on real estate in the future, we need some policies of stable management of macroeconomic liquidity and inducing funds into the real economy.

목차

Abstract
Ⅰ. 서론
Ⅱ. 선행연구
Ⅲ. 모형 설정
Ⅳ. 실증분석 결과
Ⅴ. 시사점
참고문헌

키워드

저자

• 방만기 [ Manngi Bang | 충남연구원 경제동향분석센터 센터장 ] 교신저자
• 김권식 [ Kwon Sik Kim | 국제금융센터 조기경보부 연구위원 ] 제1저자

참고문헌

발행기관

간행물

표지보기 관심저널 등록

• 간행물명

  무역통상학회지 [Journal of Korea Research Association of International Commerce]

• 간기

  격월간

• pISSN

  1738-4354

• 수록기간

  2001~2025

• 등재여부

  KCI 등재

• 십진분류

  KDC 326 DDC 380