Earticle

초록

영어

There are conflicting views as to whether water scarcity will lead to cooperation or conflict. The central thesis of this paper is that conflict over water scarcity only becomes likely when it causes an existential threat to a population or state. The study identifies a requirement for a new definition of the most severe levels of water scarcity in response to the concept of virtual water. It proposes a new definition for absolute water scarcity based upon the presence of an existential threat to a population. Using the principles identified from a review of the water conflict debate and the new definition, the article examines two Central Asian case studies to gauge the likelihood of conflict. In the case of the Aral Sea, it concludes that regional geopolitics, assisted by International Organizations should be able to find a compromise. In the case of Kazakhstan’s Ili and Irtysh Rivers, it takes the view that water scarcity, demographics and geopolitics are likely to cause China to export their insecurity to other nations.

목차

Abstract
Ⅰ. Introduction
Ⅱ. Water Wars and Causes of Conflict
Ⅲ. The Aral Sea Basin - Home of the Haves and Have Nots
Geopolitical Implications
Ⅳ. Kazakhstan: Between a rock and a hard place?
The River lli
The River Lrtysh
Ⅴ. Conclusion
References

키워드

저자

• Kwang-ho Chun [ Center for Global Affairs, Jeonbuk National University, Korea ]

참고문헌

발행기관

간행물

표지보기 관심저널 등록

• 간행물명

  평화학연구 [THE JOURNAL OF PEACE STUDIES]

• 간기

  계간

• pISSN

  1738-2580

• 수록기간

  2004~2024

• 등재여부

  KCI 등재

• 십진분류

  KDC 340 DDC 320