Earticle

초록

영어

In order to forecast the demand intensity for tourist transit of open expressway service area more accurately, according to the generation principle of tourism intensity, fully considering the influence of three forces including tourists travel demand thrust, tourism cities attraction and travel cost resistance on the strength of tourism, combining gravity model and giving a new meaning to the supply and demand parameters of the prediction model, this paper proposed a new model based on the three interaction forces to predict the demand intensity for tourist transit. In the face of lack of the status quo of tourism data, in order to verify the validity of the model, the method transforming the tourist receipts of tourist city into tourist traffic generation of a particular city was put forward. Finally, in the instance of Shuifu city of Yunnan province, this paper predicted the strength of tourists to travel in Shuifu. Numerical results showed that the model can be calibrated by the instance data and well explain the generation and distribution mechanism of traffic. This work can provide a certain basis for traffic service facilities planning.

목차

Abstract
 1. Introduction
 2. Methodology
  2.1. The Idea of Prediction
  2.2. Parameters Definition of Three Forces
  2.3. Construction of the Gravity Model
  2.4 Calculative Processing
 3. Case Study
 4. Conclusion
 Acknowledgment
 References

키워드

저자

• Yong Liu [ School of Management, Chongqing Jiaotong University, Chongqing 400074, China ]
• Ying Lin [ School of Management, Chongqing Jiaotong University, Chongqing 400074, China ] Corresponding author
• Runmin Zhang [ Yunnan Research Institute of Highway Science and Technology, Yunnan 650051, China ]
• Chunmei Zhong [ School of Management, Chongqing Jiaotong University, Chongqing 400074, China ]

참고문헌

발행기관

간행물

표지보기 관심저널 등록

• 간행물명

  International Journal of u- and e- Service, Science and Technology

• 간기

  격월간

• pISSN

  2005-4246

• 수록기간

  2008~2016

• 십진분류

  KDC 505 DDC 605