Earticle

초록

영어

The complexity and turbulence of a project may lead to its unpredictability, so risk management is increasingly important. This paper focuses on the application of Monte Carlo method in project management as follow: first, deals with the estimated scale with Wide band Delphi method and gets the interval of prediction after making repeated samples in line with the generally adopted probability models; then figures out the workloads according to the management abilities and historical date; finally obtains the progress of the project with a method combining COCOMOⅡ method and then improves the ability to predict and control management activities with uncertainties.

목차

Abstract
 1. Introduction
 2. Monte Carlo Method
  2.1 Introduction of Monte Carlo Method
  2.2 Definitions of Monte Carlo Method
  2.3Calculation of Monte Carlo Method
  2.4 Matlab Introduction
 3. The Basic Steps OF Monte Carlo Method
  3.2 Estimating the Workload
  3.3 Estimate Progress of the Project
 4. Analysis and Deduction
  4.1 Estimating Scale of the Project
  4.2 Estimating the Workload
  4.3 Estimate Progress of the Project
 5. Conclusions
 References

키워드

저자

• Li Rui-mei [ Shaanxi University of Technology School of Management, Han thong, Shaanxi, China ]

참고문헌

발행기관

간행물

표지보기 관심저널 등록

• 간행물명

  International Journal of u- and e- Service, Science and Technology

• 간기

  격월간

• pISSN

  2005-4246

• 수록기간

  2008~2016

• 십진분류

  KDC 505 DDC 605