Earticle

초록

영어

This research predicts the 12-month out-of-sample wholesale price of onion and cabbage by using price and inflow data of the Garak agricultural wholesale market from January 2004 to March 2014, and the yearly production data from Statistics Korea. The HW smoothing, ARIMA, VAR, X-12 ARIMA, and ARDL models are chosen for the analysis and their prediction power are compared. The HW smoothing, ARIMA and VAR models predicts the out-of-sample wholesale prices to range between 650 and 800 won. In the X-12 model, the wholesale prices are predicted to exceed 1000 won. For cabbage, the HW Smoothing, ARIMA, and VAR models predict the cabbage wholesale price to range between 450 and 490. The X-12 ARIMA model predicts the highest price to amount to 558 won. The ARDL model suggests that it is in September when the highest price is 780 won.

목차

Abstract
 1. Introduction
 2. Data and Methodology
  2.1. Data
  2.2 Methodology
 3. Results
 4. Conclusions
 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
 References

키워드

저자

• Sohyun Kim [ Seoul National University Agricultural Economics and Rural Development, 200-8201, Gwanak-ro 1, Gwanak-gu, Seoul ] First author
• Kuk Hyun Nam [ Seoul National University Agricultural Economics and Rural Development, 200-8201, Gwanak-ro 1, Gwanak-gu, Seoul ] Second author
• Cheolho Song [ Seoul National University Agricultural Economics and Rural Development, 200-8201, Gwanak-ro 1, Gwanak-gu, Seoul, 151-921 ] Third author
• Youngchan Choe [ Seoul National University Agricultural Economics and Rural Development, 200-8201, Gwanak-ro 1, Gwanak-gu, Seoul, 151-921 ] Corresponding author

참고문헌

발행기관

간행물

표지보기 관심저널 등록

• 간행물명

  International Journal of Software Engineering and Its Applications

• 간기

  월간

• pISSN

  1738-9984

• 수록기간

  2008~2016

• 등재여부

  SCOPUS

• 십진분류

  KDC 505 DDC 605