This paper proposes a liquidity-adjusted dividend-ratio model. Motivated by the liquidityadjusted asset pricing theory, we show that (log) stock prices, dividends, and stock liquidity are cointegrated and define their linear combination as liquidity-adjusted price-dividend ratios. By considering the potential effect of stock liquidity, our model improves not only the stationarity of price-dividend ratios but also out-of-sample forecasts of returns. We show that our model helps explain a number of asset pricing puzzles such as the equity volatility puzzle and unusual stock market behavior in the 1990s.
목차
Abstract 1. Introduction 2. Theoretical Framework 3. Estimating Liquidity-Adjusted Price-Dividend Ratios 4. Data 5. Vector Autoregressions and the Liquidity-Adjusted Dividend-Ratio Model 6. In-Sample Long Horizon Forecasting Regressions 7. Out-Of-Sample Forecasting Regressions 7.1. Non-nested Forecast Comparison 7.2. Nested Forecast Comparison 8. Robustness 9. Summary and conclusion References Table Figure