This paper explores the relation between foreign exchange exposure and financial distress and bankruptcy. Using different measures of short-term and long-term FX exposure, we find a positive relation between FX exposure and financial distress. The results hold for ex-ante and expost measures of financial distress. Additional tests reveal that the relation between FX exposure and financial distress is bidirectional and similar for firms with negative as well as positive FX exposures. Moreover we find that results are considerably stronger during the Asian Financial Crisis, an event tied to frequent FX related shocks, but weaker during the Global Financial Crisis which was mainly a default-driven event. This distinction in combination with additional empirical evidence identifies FX exposure as a contributing factor of distress risk and potential determinant of corporate bankruptcy.
목차
ABSTRACT 1. Introduction 2. Empirical methodology 2.1. Estimating foreign exchange exposure 2.2. Financial distress and bankruptcy 2.3. The regression model 3. Sample selection and descriptive statistics 4. Empirical results and discussion 4.1. Univariate analysis of FX exposures and financial distress 4.2. Multivariate analysis of FX exposure and financial distress 4.3. The bidirectional relation between FX exposure and financial distress 4.4. Negative and positive FX exposure and financial distress 4.5. Disentangling the relation by studying subperiods of special interest 4.6. FX exposure and corporate bankruptcy 5. Conclusions References Table Appendix