Earticle

초록

영어

In order to improve the accuracy of forecasting forests diseases and the number of insect number, the paper makes conclusion by using gray model and Markova chain model. It takes Hongxing forestry bureau as a demonstration site and also forecasts the insect number according to the historical data from it. By demonstrating the disease of larch that fall early among the sites in 10 years, the result shows that the forecasts are coincided with the practical case. And the rate of coincidence can be up to 90%.

목차

Abstract
 1. Introduction
 2. Gray Model and Markov Process
  2.1 Markov Process
  2.2 Gray Model
 3. Application of Markov Process Analysis in Forest Disease Forecasting
 4. Application of Gray Model in Forest Disease Forecasting
  4.1 Utilize the Gray Model to Simulate the Pathogenesis Process and Predict the Time Point of the Onset of the Mycosphaerella Laricileptolepis Lto, et al.
  4.2 Utilize Gray Model to Analyze and Predict the Disease Index of Mycosphaerella Laricileptolepis Lto, et al.
 5. Conclusion
 Acknowledgements
 References

키워드

저자

• Yanrong Zhang [ College of Computer and Information Engineering, Harbin University of Commerce, Harbin 150028, China ]

참고문헌

발행기관

간행물

표지보기 관심저널 등록

• 간행물명

  International Journal of u- and e- Service, Science and Technology

• 간기

  격월간

• pISSN

  2005-4246

• 수록기간

  2008~2016

• 십진분류

  KDC 505 DDC 605