Earticle

초록

영어

In this paper, we report bankruptcy risk level forecasting result for automobile parts manufacturing industry. With the premise that upstream supply risk and downstream demand risk could impact on automobile parts industry bankruptcy level in advance, we draw upon industry input-output table to use the economic indicators which could reflect the extent of supply and demand risk of the automobile parts industry. To verify the validity of each economic indicator, we applied simple linear regression for each indicators by varying the time lag from one month (t-1) to 12 months (t-12). Finally, with the valid indicators obtained through the simple regressions, the composition of valid economic indicators are derived using stepwise linear regression. Using the monthly automobile parts industry bankruptcy frequency data accumulated during the 5 years, R-square values of the stepwise linear regression results are 68.7%, 91.5%, 85.3% for the 3, 6, 9 months time lag cases each respectively. The computational testing results verifies the effectiveness of our approach in forecasting bankruptcy risk forecasting of the automobile parts industry.

목차

Abstract
 1. 서론
 2. 이론적 배경
  2.1 공급사슬관리위험
  2.2 산업연관분석
  2.3 자동차부품제조업의 현황 및 구성
 3. 연구 모델
  3.1 자동차부품제조업의 공급 위험
  3.2 자동차부품제조업의 수요 위험
  3.3 자동차부품제조업의 공급, 수요 위험 종합
 4. 계량 분석
  4.1 전방연계산업 분석결과
  4.2 후방연계산업 분석결과
  4.3 전후방연계산업 분석결과
 5. 결론
 참고문헌

키워드

저자

• 박근영 [ Kuen-Young, Park | 한양대학교 일반대학원 경영학과 박사과정 ]
• 한현수 [ Hyun-Soo Han | 한양대학교 경영대학 교수 ] 교신저자

참고문헌

발행기관

간행물

표지보기 관심저널 등록

• 간행물명

  JITAM [Journal of Information Technology Applications and Management]

• 간기

  격월간

• pISSN

  1598-6284

• eISSN

  2508-1209

• 수록기간

  1999~2026

• 십진분류

  KDC 005 DDC 005