Earticle

초록

영어

This study aims at projecting the tourist demand and suggesting several counteraction methods of Jeju-do through the construction of industrial foundation and tourism industry. The methods of study include both qualitative analysis of regions and statistical prediction analysis by time series from the past. The projection is based on the projection by linear model rather than some specific model, and assumes that the population of Jeju-do and the number of tourists will follow a growing trend of logistic curve. This study refers to the population distribution, GRDP, and the tourist demand in Jeju-do, and then analyses several counteraction methods in its regions. The results of this study are as follows. The first is that the population of Jeju-do is projected to gradually reach 0.70～0.72 millions and its tourist demand will increase from 9.69 in 2012 to 19.80 in 2020, to 25.80 millions in 2030. The second is that the airport facilities need to be enlarged because of the tourist's increase of future and that Jeju's naval base & tourism harbor is needed to satisfy the rising demand of local resident and tourists in Seogwipo-city. The third is that Jeju-do needs the characteristics of both the tourist & family hotel and the lodging facilities, and Seogwipo needs to build the tourism & recreation complex housing. The fourth is that tourist spots have to be established by considering the fostering of tourism industry, the development of the Myth and History Theme Park, and the fostering of Olle in seaside.

목차

Abstract
 1. 서론
  1.1. 연구의 배경 및 목적
  1.2. 연구의 범위와 방법
 2. 선행연구 검토와 이론적 고찰
  2.1. 선행연구의 검토
  2.2. 이론적 고찰
 3. 제주도의 현황과 전망
  3.1. 제주도의 입지와 행정구역
  3.2. 제주도의 행정구역별 인구의 추이와 예측
  3.3. 제주도의 생산량 추이
 4. 제주도의 관광수요 예측
  4.1. 공항시설규모에 의한 최대 항공수요 추정
  4.2. 시계열분석에 의한 예측
  4.3. 관광수요 결정모형에 의한 예측
  4.4. 관광수요 예측의 결과
 5. 관광수요 예측결과에 의한 대응방안
  5.1. 전남～제주도의 해저고속철 건설가능성
  5.2. 제주공항의 확충과 대응방안
  5.3. 서귀포의 해군기지와 미항의 건설
  5.4. 제주도 관광산업의 육성
  5.5. 관광장소의 육성
 6. 결론
 주
 참고문헌

키워드

저자

• 김형기 [ Kim, Hyeong-Ki | 부산대학교 도시공학과 공학박사 ] 주저자
• 문경종 [ Moon, Kyung-Jong | 제주특별자치도청 재난방재과 ] 교신저자
• 이성호 [ Lee, Sung-Ho | 부산대학교 도시공학과 교수 ]

참고문헌

발행기관

간행물

표지보기 관심저널 등록

• 간행물명

  한국지역개발학회지 [Journal of the Korean Regional Development Association]

• 간기

  연5회

• pISSN

  1225-9055

• 수록기간

  1989~2026

• 등재여부

  KCI 등재

• 십진분류

  KDC 322 DDC 330