Earticle

초록

영어

With debits of the majority of households continuously increasing, external macro economic impacts, such as interest rate increases, rising inflation pressure and reducing incomes, heighten a possibility of debt default of general households. This means, given the fact that debts and assets of most households in Korea are disproportionately based on their houses, it is highly likely that the local housing market's instability can be triggered by potential house price drops. Hence, this study is designed to offer a basis to evaluate future housing approaches and housing policy to stabilize household credit and local housing market by finding out the correlation between macro economic factors and household credit and housing prices. As to analysis methods, in this study a stress test model was adopted and analyzed, using CreditPortfolioView devised by Mckinsey so as to find out the correlation between macro economic factors and household credit and housing prices. Also, in accordance with shock scenarios encompassing macro economic factors, such as interest rates, housing prices, liquidity and incomes, simulations were carried out so as to check how households' default rates influence housing prices. The study is structured in an order that the characteristics of household credit in Korea were defined first, and, then, correlations between macroeconomic factors and household credit and housing prices were analyzed. Afterwards, in the study, the author suggests polices to ensure stability of household credit and housing market.

목차

Abstract:
 1. 서론
 2. 우리나라 가계신용 특징 및 취약점
  2.1. 우리나라 가계신용 특징
  2.2. 주택시장에서의 가계신용 구조적 취약점
 3. 가계신용 변동 및 주택가격 영향 분석
  3.1. 선행연구
  3.2. 모형 설정 및 추정
 4. 결론
 참고문헌

키워드

가계신용 가계부채 가계부도 주택가격 거시경제변동 스트레스테스트 Credit to Households Household Debt Household Debt Default Housing Price MacroEconomic Fluctuation Stress Test

저자

• 김윤중 [ Kim, Yoon-Joung | SH공사 도시연구소 수석연구원 ] 주저자
• 오정석 [ Oh, Jung-Seok | 본학회 정회원, SH공사 도시연구소 수석연구원 ] 교신저자
• 한봉수 [ Han, Bong-Soo | 중앙대학교 도시계획 및 부동산학과 박사과정 ]

참고문헌

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