Earticle

초록

영어

The third generation hereditary succession from Kim Jong-il to Kim Jong-un is started in North Korea. Due to the Kim Jong-il's bad health, it seems that the succession process has been brought forward from the original plan. However, the succession plan is going along the North Korea's logic and process that we anticipated, and the resistance from local people against the hereditary succession is not surfaced. Kim Jong-un was chosen as a successor of suryong(supreme leader) under the bad situation that North Korea has faced domestically and internationally, compared with those days when Kim Jong-il was selected as an heir apparent in 1974. Nevertheless, by and large, the succession process will not difficult for Kim Jong-un with the support from close relatives like Kim Kyong-hui and Jang Song-taek.
Kim Jong-un is expected to follow the footsteps of Kim Jong-il who seized power
during the succession process. In this process, we cannot exclude the possibility to create a new political ideology by Kim Jong-un who grasp the exclusive rights of ideological interpretation in North Korea. But the current trends of Juche ideology and the Military First Policy will not be changed drastically. Under Kim Jong-un's regime, North Korean domestic and foreign policies of will not differentiated from that of Kim Jong-il era.
Because the successor must be subject to restrictions by the logic that the successor should follow the suryong's directions in the revolutionary processes.
Kim Jong-un's succession system will be consolidated based on the party, and Kim Jong-il, the chairman of National Defense Commission, will support Kim Jong-un while he handles the state affairs. Once Kim Jong-un's power is strengthened, the characteristics of the National Defense Commission will be changed as a symbolic institution, and Kim Jong-un is expected to succeed the chairmanship of the Central Military Committee of the party rather than the chairmanship of the National Defense Commission. By and Large, Kim Jong-un's succession system will be affected by the Kim Jong-ill's health, economic situation, and international relations. However, even Kim Jong-il dies before the succession system is consolidated, young Kim will not be faced the power struggle among North Korean leadership as long as Kim Kyong-hui and Jang Song-taek remain in power. We cannot exclude the possibility that the North Korean leadership will choose to keep their vested rights under the current system rather than the collapse of the entire political system. Because North Korean leaders share the crisis consciousness that the split among them will result in their deaths. Although young Kim's succession system is not as good as that of Kim Jong-il in terms of the authority and legitimacy, it will not vulnerable to controlling North Korea.

목차

[국문요약]
 I. 머리말
 II. 수령·후계자 논리
  1. 수령
  2. 후계자
 III. 후계 체제 형성의 실제 : 김정일과 김정은
  1. 김정일의 후계 작업
  2. 후계자 김정은
 IV. 김정은 후계 체제의 특징과 전망
  1. 김정은 후계 체제의 특징
  2. 김정은 후계 체제의 전망
 V. 맺는 말
 참고문헌

키워드

저자

• 김수민 [ Kim, Su Min | 선문대학교 ]

참고문헌

발행기관

간행물

표지보기 관심저널 등록

• 간행물명

  평화학연구 [THE JOURNAL OF PEACE STUDIES]

• 간기

  계간

• pISSN

  1738-2580

• 수록기간

  2004~2024

• 등재여부

  KCI 등재

• 십진분류

  KDC 340 DDC 320