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To cope with the rapidly increasing demand for Recreational Forest, the ability to provide accurate visitor flow forecasts became very important. The government would be able to invest properly and effectively to build various infrastructures and programs based on correct visitor demand forecasting. This study aims to identify the appropriate model and forecast visit demand of Recreational Forest, which is one of the representative infrastructures of forest recreation in Korea. In order to develop a forecasting model, the dataset of monthly visitors to Recreational Forest during 2009-2015 were used and two time series methods - Seasonal ARIMA and Exponential Smoothing - were employed. The results show that Winters Additive model was selected as the most appropriate model to forecast visit demand of Recreational Forest based on index of Mean Absolute Percentage Error. This study will make a great academic contribution to identify visit demand for Recreational forest by systematic and scientific methods. However, this model is not the only method available for forecasting demand. Since there are many other kinds of forest recreation infrastructures in accordance with different purposes, other kinds of forecasting methods should be adopted for better projection later on.
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최근 건강증진을 위한 장소로서 산림을 이용하는 활동이 활발하게 일어나고 있다. 산림청에서는 산림을 이 용하여 웰빙과 건강증진을 실현하기 위한 새로운 융복합적 시도를 하였으며, 이를 ‘산림치유’라 정의하고, 치유의 숲 을 조성하여 산림치유서비스를 제공하고 있다. 그러나 현재 치유의 숲은 대도시와 접근성이 떨어지는 위치에 조성되 어 있어 치유활동이 필요한 교통약자들이 산림치유 활용에 어려움이 있다. 또한, 현재 치유의 숲 조성을 위한 면적기 준은 대도시의 파편화된 산림 면적에는 적합하지 않기 때문에 대도시 치유의 숲 조성에 어려움을 겪고 있다. 이에 대 도시 치유의 숲에 대한 적정 면적기준을 도출하기 위하여 본 연구를 진행하였다. 기존의 도시숲을 활용한 야외공간에 대한 조성면적 기준 현황을 검토하고, 치유활동이 필요한 교통약자의 보행권을 조사하여, 면적기준과 보행권의 분석 을 복합적으로 진행하였다. 도시자연공원, 관광단지 등 유사 야외휴양공간의 면적기준에 비하여 치유의 숲 면적 기준 은 대도시 환경에 맞추어 세분화되어 있지 않았다. 또한, 교통약자의 보행권을 고려하여 대도시 치유의 숲 조성을 위 한 최소 면적기준을 산출한 결과, 국공유림 25만제곱미터 이상, 사유림 15만제곱미터 이상으로 나타났다. 본 논문은 대도시 지역의 치유의 숲 적정 면적기준에 대한 정책적 근거로서 활용할 수 있을 것이다.
Forest area was applied as health promotion place for resident. Korea Forest Service set the term of “forest healing” based on the application of forest area as health promotion, which multidisciplinary approach in forest policy, and construct the “healing forest” for the healing space. Handicapped was excluded from the forest healing service as healing forest was located in the point away from urban area. The standard of healing forest size was difficult to set as urban forest area was fragmented. This study conducted on adequate standard of healing forest size in urban region. This study surveyed the laws related to the outdoor recreation place, and the walking range of the handicapped (elders, disabilities). The results were deduced with interrelationship between two factors(forest policy, human walking range). Healing forest size was not departmentalized for urban area compared with the standard of similar outdoor space (tourism complex, urban parks). Healing forest size was changed from 50ha to 25ha in national forest, from 30ha to 15ha in private forest considered with walking range of handicapped. This study contributes the evidence as the standard of healing forest size for health promotion in urban resident.
[Kisti 연계] 한국환경보건학회 한국환경보건학회지 Vol.44 No.3 2018 pp.205-216
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Objectives: Scientific verification for health effects has been constantly demanded through the forest healing factors. In this study, phytoncide concentration which is one of the forest healing factors, was investigated according to stand density, season and visiting time, and analyzed correlation with micrometeorology factors. Methods: Total volatile organic compounds (TVOCs) and Natural volatile organic compounds (NVOCs) were collected using a measuring instrument which is connected to an air pump with the Tenax TA tube. The 32NVOCs were selected through the detailed criteria of adequacy assessment for recreational forest. The statistical analysis (correlation and stepwise regression analysis) was conducted between phytoncide concentration and micrometeorology factors. Results: NVOCs concentration linearly increased according to stand density. The high level showed in the summer (p<0.05), and there is no significant difference according to visiting hours of the Healing forest. NVOCs is a negative correlation with solar radiation, PAR and wind direction, and a positive correlation with relative humidity and temperature (p<0.01). NVOCs increased following the increase of humidity and temperature ($R^2=0.55$). Conclusions: Phytoncide linearly increased according to stand density, and showed the correlation significantly with microclimate factors. In future, these results will be utilized as a basic material to promote the generation of phytoncide, which positively influences human health promotion and manage the forest welfare space.
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