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국방연구개발투자와 방산매출 간의 실증적 관계성에 관한 연구

신용도, 전경채

한국방위산업학회 한국방위산업학회지 제21권 제3호 2014.09 pp.174-190

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본 연구는 방산매출에 영향을 주는 구조적 충격을 방산매출충격과 국방연구개발충격으로 설정하고 이들 구조적 충격, 특히 국방연구개발충격이 방산매출에 미치는 동태적 효과를 분석하는데 연구목적을 두고 있다. 구조적 벡터오차수정모형(VECM)을 이용하여 실증분석된 연구결과를 보면 국방연구개발충격은 방산매출에 항구적으로 양(+)의 영향을 주며, 방산매출의 변동은 단기적으로는 방산매출충격에 크게 의존하나 장기적으로는 국방연구개발충격에 의해서도 상당 부분 설명되는 것으로 나타났다. 본 연구의 결과는 창조경제의 한 축인 방위산업의 성장을 위해서는 국방연구개발투자를 활성화하기 위한 다양한 정책대안이 적극적으로 모색될 필요성을 시사하고 있다.
The purpose of this paper is to analyze the contribution of structural shocks to the fluctuations of defense sales in Korea. Two structural shocks, i.e., defense sales shocks and defense R&D shocks, are assumed here. A structural vector error correction model (VECM) is used to identify these shocks and to investigate the dynamic effects of defense R&D shocks on defense sales. The research results showed that defense R&D shocks have positive effects on defense sales in the short and long terms. While defense sales shocks are the dominant movers of defense sales, defense R&D shocks also contribute to the fluctuations of defense sales in the long run. This empirical finding suggests that investment in defense R&D is an effective way to support the growth of the defense industry. Considering the importance of the defense industry in the achievement of a creative economy, various policy alternatives may need to be investigated to enhance defense R&D investments.



구조적 벡터오차수정모형(VECM)을 이용한 수출신용보험이 수출에 미치는 효과분석

신용도, 김희국

한국무역보험학회 무역보험연구 제12권 제3호 2011.09 pp.23-40

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본 연구는 수출 및 수출보험에 영향을 주는 구조적 충격을 수출충격과 수출신용보험충격으로 설정하고 이들 구조적 충격, 특히 수출신용보험충격이 수출에 미치는 동태적 효과를 분석하고자 하였다. 실증 분석된 연구결과는 수출신용보험충격도 수출량에 항구적으로 긍정적인 영향을 주나 수출량의 변동은 수출충격에 크게 의존하는 것으로 나타났다. 하지만 수출신용보험충격이 수출량에 장기적으로 긍정적 영향을 준다는 분석결과는 수출지원수단으로서 수출신용보험제도의 정책적 유용성을 실증적으로 입증하였다는 점에서 향후 수출신용보험제도의 활용성을 제고하기 위한 정책대안을 적극적으로 모색할 필요가 있다는 점을 시사하고 있다.
This paper analyzes the contribution of structural shocks to the fluctuations of export in Korea. Two structural shocks, export shock and export credit insurance shock, are assumed here. A structural vector error correction model(VECM) is used to identify these shocks and to investigate the dynamic effects of export credit insurance shocks on export. The research results show that while export shocks dominate the movement of export, export credit insurance shocks have permanent positive effects on export. However, the empirical finding that export credit insurance shocks affect export permanently suggests that export credit insurance is an effective method to support export under the WTO system and policy Alternatives may need to be searched in order to enhance the effectiveness of export credit insurance.



우주개발동향과 주요 이슈

조홍제, 신용도

[Kisti 연계] 한국항공우주정책·법학회 한국항공우주정책·법학회지 Vol.29 No.1 2014 pp.97-126

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October 4, 1957 the Soviet Sputnik 1 was launched into space the first time in the history of mankind. After launching, the realm of humankind was expanded to space. Today all countries of the world wage a fierce competition in order to utilize space for various purposes. World powers of space such as United States, Russia, China, and Japan, put reconnaissance satellites and ocean surveillance satellites into orbit, being able to easily see equipment and troops movement on earth. Each country makes efforts to occupy space assets through the militarization of space and expand national interests. Recently private companies or individuals involved in commercial space activities are becoming more prevalent. Thus, in addition to space activities for military purposes, commercial space activities become widespread. Individuals and private companies as well as nations are also involved in space activities. Outer space is not the monopoly of space powers such as the United States and Russia. The whole human race can benefit from free access to space, being the common heritage of mankind. In particular, outer space becomes an indispensable element of military activities and human life. Many countries are now entering space development, putting a lot of budget into new development programs. Republic of Korea also built the Narodo Space Center, starting its space development with budget and manpower. We have to find out ways to use space not only for military purposes but also for commercial space activities that can contribute to the national economy. In addition, through the joint efforts of the international community, we have to make efforts for preservation and peaceful use of space. Various issues relating to space activities and research should be studies in order to contribute to the progress of humanity. Those issues include the definition of outer space, space debris reduction and environmental conservation issues, non-bind measure cooperation - European International Code of Conduct, space law and national legislation related empowerment issues, arms control measures in space, and restrictions on the use of nuclear fuel. We also need to be involved in the discussion of those issues as one of responsible space countries. In addition, we try to find out regional cooperation schemes such as the ESA in the Europe actively. Currently in the Northeast Asia, cooperation bodies led by Japan and China respectively, are operated in the confrontational way. To avoid such confrontation, a new cooperative body needs to be established for cooperation on space exploration and information. The system to allow the exchange of satellite information for early warning of natural disasters needs to be built as well. In addition, efforts to enhance the effectiveness of the relevant international treaties on space, and fill in the blanks in international space laws should be made at the same time. To this end, we have to do a leading role in the establishment of standards such as non-binding measures (resolution) - Code of Conduct, being discussed in the UN and other organizations, and compliance with those standards. Courses in aerospace should be requires in law schools and educational institutes, and professional manpower need to be nurtured. In addition, the space-related technology and policy needs to be jointly studied among the private, public, and military groups, and the cross exchange among them should be encouraged.

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