Earticle

최근 중동의 주요 국가들의 경제 성장과 맞물려 우리나라와의 다양한 분야에서의 경제협력 및 교류의 가능 성에도 불구하고 그동안 이 지역과 경제협력과 관련된 연구와 자료가 부족했으며 특히, 이 지역과의 교역구조 및 동 향과 관련된 논문은 거의 찾아 볼 수 없었다. 이에 본 연구는 우리나라와 주요 GCC(Gulf Cooperation Council) 국가 (사우디아라비아, 아랍에미레이트, 카타르) 간에 최근 5년 동안 무역결합도 지수 분석과, 무역보완도, 국별편향도 지 수 분석을 통해 향후 GCC 국가로의 한국의 수출 및 교류의 확대의 가능성을 살펴보고, 더 나아가 FTA 체결에 대한 시사점을 검토해 보는 것을 목적으로 하였다. 분석결과 중동의 주요 3개 국가 모두 산업구조상 한국과 상호보완 관 계가 이루어져 있어 국가 간 자본이동을 점증적으로 증가시키거나 무역장벽을 낮추도록 노력한다면 향후 무역보완도 와 국별편향도를 더욱 증가 시킬 수 있을 것으로 나타났다. 특히 한국과 사우디 간의 무역 및 교역 구조는 3국 중에 서 가장 상호 보완관계가 높아 미래 FTA의 체결을 통해 우리나라의 수출증대와 더불어 양국 간 교역을 활성화 할 수 있는 새로운 기회를 창출할 수 있을 것으로 기대된다.

Although growth potential of trade between Korea and the GCC region has existed in various fields through economic and business cooperation, few data and practical study related with trade structure and cooperation between Korea and GCC region have been found and the potential for further economic expansion has not been extensively explored. In this sense, this study is to analyze trade flows between Korea and GCC region countries(Saudi Arabia, Unites Arab Emirates, Qatar) using trade intensity index, trade complementarity index and special country bias index, identify potential for further expansion of Korea’s trade into the GCC region and further propose the implication of FTA between mutual countries. Our analysis of trade flows also demonstrates that there is a high level of trade complementarity between Korea and GCC region. It means that increase of trade complementarity and special country bias come from removing not only trade barrier and increasing but also capital movement. Especially, the study reveals that there is an untapped potential for Korea to increase its exports to Saudi, based on the highest complementarities. Export expansion between Korea and Saudi through FTA will create new opportunity in near future.

2015년 12월20일 한중 FTA가 발효되면서 10조원의 중국시장 선점과 약 10년간 0.96%의 경제성장효과를 나타낼 수 있을 것이라는 정부 발표가 있었다. 또한 한중 FTA의 2015년 연내 발효에 따라 2016년부터 바로 그 효과가 나타날 것으로 발표되어 한국경제의 새로운 국면을 기대하게 되었다. 그러나 중국경제의 성장둔화, 초저유가와 맞물려 2016년 1월 대 중국 한국수출은 전년 동월대비 21.5% 감소하여 2008년 세계금융위기 때와 비슷한 양상을 보이고 있다. 이러한 현상은 단지 중국의 성장둔화와 저유가만의 문제는 아니며 한중 무역구조 변화의 영향도 배제할 수 없다. 이에 따라 본 연구에서는 한중양국의 무역구조를 판단할 수 있는 무역결합도를 측정한 결과 한중무역은 결합도가 점차 감소하여 상호경쟁적인 것으로 나타났다. 이러한 변화가 양국무역에 영향을 주고 있는 것으로 판단되며, 무역결합도를 활용한 한중 FTA 양허안 분석은 새로운 시사점을 제공할 것으로 보인다.

Korea-China FTA on Dec. 20, 2015 has been the entry into force. As a result, the 10 trillion won China market preoccupancy and about 10-year 0.96% of economic growth effect are estimated. The South Korean government announced that it immediately appears its effect from 2016, because it has taken effect the end of 2015. However, effect of the slowdown in growth of the Chinese economy and the ultra-low oil prices, South Korea's exports to China in January 2016 decreased by 21.5% year-on-year. There shows that the appearance similar to when the global financial crisis in 2008. Such a phenomenon, not just a matter of slowing growth Chinese economy and the ultra-low oil prices, it is not possible to also eliminate the effect of changes in the Korea-China trade structure. Results of the measurement of the trade complementarity of the two countries intensity of trade can determine trade structure that Korea-China trade complementarity was found to be mutually competitive for gradually decreased. Such a change is determined to have an effect on the two countries of the trade, the analysis of the Korea-China FTA concessions using intensity of trade can be seen as providing a new suggestion.

Using cross-border merger and acquisition (M&A) data from 2000 to 2010 across 29 major economies, we investigate the interplay between market signal and information asymmetry in shaping corporate managers’ decision to complete M&As. We gauge the market-evaluated synergies of deals using the abnormal returns of bidders and targets around the news, and information asymmetry based on firm-year level accounting standards quality. Our findings reveal that the corporate managers’ propensity to follow the market signals is positively associated with high-quality accounting standards, suggesting that information transparency plays a crucial role in informing investment decisions.

This paper analyzes how South Korea’s trade intensity with her major EU trading countries (i.e., Germany, Netherlands, Italy, and France, GNIF in short hereafter) in 19 industries of the manufacturing sector changed over time for the period of 2012-2019. For this purpose, trade intensity index, trade complementarity index, and special country bias index between South Korea and GNIF were measured and analyzed by a trade intensity index model. The 6-digit level OECD trade data of Harmonized System (HS) were used as data. South Korea's trade intensity with Germany was found to increase from 0.372 in 2012 to 0.400 in 2019 due to (a) the increase in South Korea's special country bias with Germany from 0.377 in 2012 to 0.390 in 2019 and (b) the increase in South Korea’s trade complementarity with Germany from 0.987 in 2012 to 1.026 in 2019. South Korea's trade intensity with Netherlands turned out to decrease from 0.577 in 2012 to 0.474 in 2019 mainly due to the decrease in South Korea's special country bias with Netherlands from 0.603 in 2012 to 0.510 in 2019. South Korea's trade intensity with Italy turned out to increase from 0.471 in 2012 to 0.490 in 2019 mainly due to the increase in South Korea's trade complementarity with Italy from 0.910 in 2012 to 0.962 in 2019. Finally, South Korea’s trade intensity with France was found to increase from 0.226 in 2012 to 0.274 in 2019 mainly due to (a) the increase in South Korea’s special country bias with France from 0.226 in 2012 to 0.281 in 2019. Very fortunately the EU-South Korea free trade agreement (FTA) had provisionally applied since July 2011 before it was formally ratified in December 2015. Therefore both South Korea and EU countries should do their utmost in enhancing South Korea's special country bias with GNIF by (a) increasing capital movements and economic cooperation and (b) lifting discriminatory tariffs and other import restrictions between South Korea and GNIF.

This paper aims to analyze how Korea’s trade intensity with China changed over time for the period of 2003-2008. For this purpose, we measured the trade intensity index, the trade complementarity index, and the special country bias index between Korea and China through the trade intensity index model which was developed by Yamazawa (1970). The OECD trade matrix was used as data. It was found that Korea’s trade intensity with China increased from 7.32 in 2003 to 9.64 in 2008 due to (a) increase in Korea’s special country bias with China from 6.06 in 2003 to 8.24 in 2008 and (b) decrease in Korea’s trade complementarity with China from 1.21 in 2003 to 1.17 in 2008. Therefore Korea’s special country bias with China should further be enhanced by (a) increasing capital movements and economic cooperation and (b) reducing discriminatory tariffs and other import restrictions between Korea and China. In this respect, FTA discussion between China and Korea, in which the Chinese government is quite interested, should be started soonest as possible.

Yamazawa (1970) 교수가 개발한 무역결합도 모형을 이용하여 한국의 주요 ASEAN제국에 대한 무역결합도, 무역보완도 및 국별편향도를 OECD 무역행렬자료을 이용하여 2003년과 2008년에 대해 계측하였다. 한국의 인도네시아에 대한 무역결합도는 2003년의 6.99로부터 2008년에는 6.74로 하락하였는데, 이는 한국의 인도네시아에 대한 무역보완도가 2003년의 1.05에서 2008년의 1.14로 상승하였는데도 불구하고, 한국의 인도네시아에 대한 국별편향도가 2003년의 6.64로부터 2008년에는 6.06으로 크게 하락한데 기인한 것이다. 이러한 결과는 한국의 인도네시아에 대한 무역결합도를 증진시키기 위해서는, 양국간 자본이동을 증가시키거나 무역장벽을 낮추는 등의 한국의 인도네시아에 대한 국별편향도를 상승시키는 노력이 필요하다는 것을 의미한다. 한국의 여타 주요 ASEAN제국(즉, 말레이시아, 필립핀, 싱가폴 및 태국)에 대한 무역결합도와 국별편향도는 모두 동 기간 중 상승하여, 위에서 설명한 한국의 인도네시아에 대한 무역결합도와 국별편향도와는 정 반대의 변화를 보이고 있다. 따라서 한국과 이들 여타 ASEAN제국 간에 자본이동을 증가시키거나 무역장벽을 낮춤으로써, 한국과 이들 여타 ASEAN제국 간의 국별편향도를 더욱 상승시키는 노력이 필요하다고 판단된다.

This paper analyzes how trade intensity between Korea and OECD East European countries changed from 2003 to 2008. For this purpose, we measured the trade intensity index, the trade complementarity index, and the special country bias index between Korea and OECD East European countries by using trade intensity index model developed by Yamazawa (1970). The OECD trade matrix was used as data. It was found that Korea's trade intensity with Czech Republic increased from 0.15 in 2003 to 0.33 in 2008 due to a considerable increase in Korea's special country bias with Czech Republic from 0.15 in 2003 to 0.30 in 2008. Therefore Korea's special country bias with Czech Republic should be enhanced further by increasing capital movements and reducing discriminatory tariffs and other import restrictions between Korea and Czech Republic. It was also found that trade intensity between Korea and other three East European countries (i.e., Hungary, Poland, and Slovakia) shows a similar pattern of the above trade intensity between Korea and Czech Republic.

This paper aims to analyze how Korea's trade intensity with the major EU countries (i.e., the U.K., France, Germany, Italy, and Spain) changed over time for the period of 2000-2005. For this purpose, we measured the trade intensity index, the trade complementarity index, and the special country bias index between Korea and her major trading EU countries through the trade intensity index model which was developed by Yamazawa (1970). The OECD trade matrix was used as data. According to the trade intensity index model, the trade intensity index can be decomposed into trade complementarity index and special country bias index. Here, the trade intensity index measures the degree of trade intensity which actually can exist between two countries. The trade complementarity is an expected intensity of trade given that the trade structures are principally determined by the comparative advantage theory under the conditions that there are no trade barriers, no transportation costs and no mutually favorable trade agreement like FTA. On the other hand, the divergence between the expected and the actual value of trade intensity defines the degree of special country bias. We found that Korea’ trade intensity with France, Germany, Italy, and Spain increased for the period of 2000-2005 due to (a) a considerably increase in Korea's special country bias with these countries except Spain and (b) a more or less increase in Korea's trade complementarity with these countries. Therefore Korea's special country bias with these countries should be enhanced further by increasing capital movements and reducing discriminatory tariffs and other import restrictions between Korea and these EU countries. It was also found that Korea's trade intensity with the U.K. during the period decreased from 1.02 to 0.79 mainly due to decrease in special country bias between Korea and the U.K.

This paper examines Myanmar’s garment industry comparative’s competitiveness by selecting Korea and Japan-Myanmar’s main target exporting countries for their garment industry-and China and Thailand, the neighboring countries it has continued to have business relationships with since the economic sanctions in selecting the target countries, this study presents a competitive outlook at the Myanmar garment industry’s potential for the future by analyzing trade intensity per main garment product. Therefore, Korea should recognize the advantages of Myanmar, compared to other countries with similar competitiveness in the textile industry, and should develop Myanmar textile industry into a future-oriented garment industry through measures such as labor force training, scaling up both industrial relations and safety facilities, and establishing sound labor-management relations.

The theoretical literature on heterogeneous firms and trade explains how differences in productivity determine which firms enter export markets. Yet even among exporters, productivity varies considerably: some firms export multiple products to numerous destinations, while others export a single product to only one market. This paper focuses on the latter group ? marginal or low-intensity exporters ? offering a descriptive analysis to better understand how productivity shapes export behavior beyond the initial entry decision. Using a panel dataset of randomly selected Korean exporters from 2002 tracked through 2010, the study finds that low-intensity exporters are more likely to serve geographically close markets, although some do reach distant regions such as South America and Africa. Compared to high-intensity exporters, single-destination exporters are more sensitive to geographic distance but respond similarly to the economic size of destination markets.

This paper develops a two-factor model of trade in intermediate goods and final goods between countries differing in relative factor endowments with monopolistically competitive firms of heterogeneous productivity. Unlike previous studies, I show that even without trade cost selection effects are present and are guided by factor proportions. Free trade causes a lower wage-rental ratio and weaker selection in the capital abundant country while the opposite happens in the labor abundant country. Under free trade, in a departure from the Stolper-Samuelson result, the real reward to labor rises in the capital abundant country while the change in the real reward to labor is ambiguous for the labor abundant country. Further, the model predicts, for costly trade, a rise in the wage-rental ratio reallocates labor away from capital intensive intermediate goods sector and towards labor intensive final good sector, and vice-versa. Also, in a move to costly trade, if the wage-rental ratio rises then selection becomes stricter, and vice-versa. These results are confirmed by a numerical simulation of bilateral liberalization in the model.

Purpose ? Promoting the trade of environmental goods plays a significant role in improving global environmental performance. Despite their importance, research on the determinants of environmental goods trade, particularly for major CO₂-emitting countries, remains limited. This study examines the factors influencing environmental goods trade, with a particular focus on major CO₂-emitting countries. It aims to analyze how relative R&D intensity and relative factor endowments affect bilateral exports of environmental goods. Design/Methodology/Approach ?­ Using panel data from 15 major CO₂-emitting countries from 2000 to 2019, this study employs the system-GMM estimator within a gravity model framework to analyze how relative R&D intensity and relative factor endowments impact bilateral environmental goods exports. Findings ? The results indicate that both relative R&D intensity and relative factor endowments significantly boost environmental goods exports. The pattern of factor endowments suggests that the environmental goods trade largely follows an inter-industry characteristic aligned with the Heckscher-Ohlin model. Additionally, the dynamic results show a strong hysteresis effect in environmental goods exports. Research Implications ? The findings highlight that boosting R&D capacity and optimizing factor endowment structures are vital to enhancing competitiveness in the environmental goods trade. In addition, given the trade hysteresis effect, policymakers should maintain stable long-term policy support for environmental goods trade and investment to sustain accumulated export advantages.

한-중관계는 1992년 수교 이래 무역, 투자, 인적 교류 등 다양한 분야에서 비약적인 발전을 거듭하고 있다. 특히 한-중 상품무역은 1992년 64 억 달러에서 2021년 3,015억 달러를 기록함으로써 약 47배 증가하였고, ‘산업간 무역’은 ‘산업내 무역’ 형태로 전환되었다. 이에 본고는 한-중 수교 이후 지난 30년간 양국 상호시장에서 전개된 수출경쟁력과 무역결합도등의 구조적 변화를 분석하였다. 이러한 분석내용을 바탕으로 무역구조결정요인에 따른 양국 무역의 구조적 특징을 통해 한-중 무역관계 30년을 회고하는 한편, 한국의 對중국 제조업 수출경쟁력 제고를 위한 시사점을 제공하고자 한다. 분석 결과를 요약하면, 첫째, 수출경쟁력의 경우, 한국은 화학물질 및 화학제품, 전기・전자제품, 정밀기기 등이, 중국은 음식료품과 기타제조품, 섬유제품, 금속제품 등에서 비교우위를 보이고 있다. 둘째, 산업내 무역의 경우, 한국 시장에서 한-중간 산업내 무역은 수송기기 분야에서 가장 크게 나타났으며, 섬유제품과 기타제조품은 1990년대에, 일반기계와 금속제품은 2000년대 후반에 산업내 무역이 나타났다. 중국 시장에서는 금속제품과 전기・전자제품에서 한-중간 산업내 무역이 활발히 이루어지고 있으며, 섬유제품은 1990년대에, 일반기계는 2000년대후반에 산업내 무역이 나타났다. 셋째, 무역결합도의 경우, 한-중 수교 이후 대다수 산업에서 양국 간 무역긴밀도가 높은 것으로 나타났다. 특히중국 시장에서는 전기・전자제품, 화학물질 및 화학제품이, 한국 시장에서는 수송기기, 음식료품의 무역집중도가 높게 나타났다.

Since establishing diplomatic ties in 1992, Korea-China relations have been developing rapidly in various fields such as trade, investment, and people-to-people exchanges. In particular, Korea- China's merchandise trade increased 47 times from US$6.4 billion in 1992 to US$301.5 billion in 2021. And also, Korea-China trade relations had transformed from ‘Inter-industry trade’ to ‘intra-industry trade.’ Accordingly, this paper analyzes structural changes such as export competitiveness and trade intensity developed in the bilateral markets of Korea-China over the past 30 years since the establishment of Korea-China diplomatic relations. Based on this, we look back on the 30 years of the Korea-China trade relations through the structural characteristics of trade between the two countries according to the determinants of the trade structure and provide implications for enhancing Korea's manufacturing export competitiveness to China. To summarize the analysis results, first, in terms of export competitiveness, Korea has a comparative advantage in chemicals and chemical products,electrical and electronic equipment, and precision machinery. And China has a comparative advantage in food and beverage products, other manufacturing, textile products, and metal products. Second, in the case of intra-industry trade, in Korea, 'intra-industry trade' between Korea and China was the largest in the transport equipment sector, with textile products and other manufacturing in the 1990s and general machinery and metal products in the late 2000s. In China, 'intra-industry trade' between Korea and China was actively conducted in metal products and electrical/electronic equipment, textile products in the 1990s, and general machinery in the late 2000s. Third, in the case of trade intensity, it was found that trade intensity between the two countries was high in most industries after establishing Korea-China diplomatic relations. In particular, in China, the trade concentration of electric/ electronic products, chemicals, and chemical products was high. In Korea, transportation equipment and food and beverage products were highly concentrated.

본 연구의 목적은 미국시장을 대상으로 우리나라 컴퓨터산업의 수출경쟁력을 분석하여 정책적인 시사점을 도출하는 데 있다. 이를 위해 무역결합도(IT)지수 및 Balassa 지수 등을 활용하였다. 실증분석 기간은 글로벌 금융위기 이후의 수출경쟁력을 분석하기 위해 최근 6년간(2009년∼2014년)으로 한정하였다. 실증분석 결과 무역결합도 지수가 1보다 큰 품목은 없고, 대부분 낮은 수준에서 하향 조정되고 있어 경합도가 낮은 것으로 나타났다. 예컨대 HS 8473(컴퓨터부품)을 제외하고 대부분의 품목은 수출경쟁력이 낮은 상태이고, HS 8528과 HS 8523인 경우 비교우위에서 비교열위로 전환되었다. 특화계수 분석에서는 HS 8473(컴퓨터부품)이 유일하게 1보다 높지만(특화품목) 나머지 품목들은 전부 낮아 비 특화품목으로 나타났다. 세계시장을 대상으로 한 BI 분석에서는 HS 8473 품목이 1보다 높지만, 나머지 품목들은 1보다 낮아 비교열위상태인 것으로 나타났다. 실증분석 결과를 근거로 컴퓨터산업의 수출경쟁력을 제고하기 위해서는 규모의 경제를 통한 비용절감, 결합상품 개발, 기능의 다양화 및 차별화, 핵심부품의 국산화 등에 주력해야 할 것이다.

This paper has analyzed the export competitiveness of Korea Computer Industry in U.S. market. Therefore, this paper calculates and compares Trade Intensity Index and Balassa Index during the time period(2009∼2014). Trade Intensity Index expresses the degree of closeness of trade between two countries and can be divided into Export Intensity Index or Import Intensity Index for looking the pattern of export and import. Balassa Index can be used to measure revealed competitive advantage of a country. The empirical results show Korean Computer Industry in U.S. market demonstrates comparative disadvantage for the same period, whereas has got comparative advantage in the industry category HS 8473. Therefore we found that the export competitiveness of Korean Computer Industry has declined substantially in U.S. market. Based upon the empirical results, this paper suggests efficient strategy. First, Korean Computer industry should be transformed from producing low-quality product to producing high quality product to acquire export competitiveness. Second, Korean Computer Companies will need to think how to improve technical situation and R&D activity. Third, smaller computer companies should make an effort to increase profit margins and market share.

한국의 미국에 대한 무역결합도는 1993년의 2.87로부터 2004년에는 2.39로 하락하였는데, 이는 한국의 미국에 대한 무역보완도는 동 기간중 0.94에서 1.06로 다소 상승하였지만, 한국의 미국에 대한 국별편향도가 1993년의 3.06으로부터 2004년에는 2.26으로 크게 하락한데 기인한 것이다. 한국의 일본에 대한 국별편향도가 1993년의 7.95에서 2004년에는 9.20으로 상승하였는데도 불구하고, 한국의 일본에 대한 무역보완도가 1993년의 1.05에서 2004년에는 0.88로 하락하였기 때문에 한국의 대일본 무역결합도는 1993년의 8.37에서 2004년에는 8.11로 하락하였다. 한국의 중국에 대한 국별편향도가 1993년의 6.99에서 2004년에는 9.58로 상승하고, 한국의 중국에 대한 무역보완도가 1993년의 0.85에서 2004년에는 1.08로 상승하였기 때문에 한국의 대중국 무역결합도는 1993년의 5.96에서 2004년에는 10.39로 급상승하였다. 그러므로 한국과 미국(일본, 중국) 간의 교역에 있어 현존하는 차별적인 무역장벽을 낮추고, 자본이동 및 경제협력 등을 증대시킴으로써 한국의 미국(일본, 중국)에 대한 국별편향도를 더 제고시켜아만 한다.

It was found that Korea's trade intensity with the USA decreased from 2.87 in 1993 to 2.39 in 2004 due to decrease in Korea's special country bias with the USA from 3.06 in 1993 to 2.26 in 2004 even if Korea's trade complementarity with the USA increased from 0.94 in 1993 to 1.06 in 2004. It was also found that Korea's trade intensity with Japan decreased from 8.37 in 1993 to 8.11 in 2004 due to decrease in Korea's trade complementarity with Japan from 1.05 in 1993 to 0.88 in 2004 even if Korea's special country bias with Japan increased from 7.95 in 1993 to 9.20 in 2004. It was found that Korea's trade intensity with China increased from 5.96 in 1993 to 10.39 in 2004 due to (a) increase in Korea's special country bias with China from 6.99 in 1993 to 9.58 in 2004 and (b) increase in Korea's trade complementarity with China from 0.85 in 1993 to 1.08 in 2004. Therefore Korea's special country bias with the USA (Japan, China) should be enhanced by increasing capital movements and reducing discriminatory tariffs and other import restrictions between Korea and the USA (Japan, China).

In order to analyze the current status of trade with Korea and FTA partner countries, the Trade Intensity Index and the Market Comparative Advantage index were calculated and analyzed using panel gravity model. In the case of trade, trade intensity index has been strengthened according to each FTA enforecement, and in some cases, trade inensity has been weakened. In the case of the comparative advantage index, there was a case in which the comparative advantage was strengthened or the comparative advantage was not significantly changed according to each Chapter of HS code. This means that the Korea's FTA enforcement effect has not directly affected the increase of the trade intensity and the increase of the market comparative advantage index. The panel gravity model using the trade intensity and the comparative advantage index as the dependent variable and the trade volume between the two countries as the dependent variable was analyzed.

This paper analyzes the economic cooperation and trade structure between South and North Korea which are essential to the reunification of Korea. With the summit meeting of the South and North Korea, the South and North Korean Intra-trade will be increased sharply, and so will be highly needed to analyze the current trade structure of South and North Korea. To do this, this paper uses the Trade Intensity index and Grubel-Lloyd Intra-Industry Trade index. In terms of Trade Intensity index, we can find that the trade intensity between South and North Korea has rapidly increased as the two Korea deepens Inter-dependent economic relationship especially in the middle of 1990's. Furthermore North Korea's trade is more dependent on South Korea during 1990's. Until year 1994, South Korea's export is very lowly dependent on North Korea, but North Korea's export is greatly dependent on South Korea since year 1991. In terms of Grubel-Lloyd Intra-Industry Trade index, there have been a lot of intra-industry trade in the textile goods, steel and metal products. Even though the economic relationship between two Koreas has been more developed in 1990's, there still exists something to be developed. To vitalize the economic cooperation and trade between South and North Korea, two Korea should expand mutual understanding in economic cooperations and also be efficiently coordinated in the trade, tax, investment systems. Also multilateral international cooperation with neighboring nations is necessary for the North-South economic cooperation to develop the effective economic cooperation.

본 연구는 2005~2017년 기간 동안 한국 대 전 세계 90여 개국 간 국가 쌍 패널자료를 활용하여, 디지털서비스(DDS)와 비디지털서비스(NDS) 무역이 생산기반회계 및 소비기반회계기준 탄소집약도와 탄소전가(emissions transfer)에 미치는 영향을 실증분석한다. 고정효과를 포함한 PPML과 생산-소비 배출 격차를 활용한 OLS 추정으로 분석한다. 분석 결과, 한국의 DDS 수출은 국내 생산단계와 해외 소비단계 모두에서 탄소집약도를 유의하게 변화시키지 않은 반면, DDS 수입은 생산기반회계 기준 탄소집약도를 증가시키는 동시에 탄소전가를 유의하게 감소시키는 것으로 나타났다. 산업별 분석에서도 DDS 수출은 유의한 영향을 미치지 않은 반면, DDS 수입은 제조업과 에너지‧기반시설 부문에서 생산기반 탄소집약도를 증가시키고 탄소전가를 완화하는 효과가 가장 뚜렷하게 관찰되었다. 이를 통해 본 연구는 무역-환경 문헌을 확장함과 동시에, 디지털 전환과 탄소중립 정책 간의 연계를 위한 정책적 함의를 제공하고자 한다.

This study analyzes how trade in digitally deliverable services (DDS) and non-digitally deliverable services (NDS) affects carbon intensity and emissions transfer under production-based (PBA) and consumpition-based accounting (CBA) frameworks. Using bilateral panel data between Korea and 90 countries from 2005 to 2017, it utilizes fixed-effects PPML estimations for carbon intensity and OLS estimations for emissions transfer, measured as the gap between PBA and CBA emissions. The results show that Korea’s DDS exports do not significantly affect carbon intensity at either the production or consumption stage, whereas DDS imports increase production-based carbon intensity while significantly reducing emissions transfer. Industry-level analysis indicates that these effects of DDS imports are most pronounced in manufacturing and energy and infrastructure-related sectors, while DDS exports remain insignificant across all industries. Finally, the findings suggest that DDS services trade does not systematically induce emissions transfer across borders and offers policy-relevant insights for integrating digital transformation with carbon neutrality strategies.